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1.
We study the effects of pension reform on hours worked by three active generations, education of the young, the retirement decision of older workers, and aggregate growth in a four-period OLG model. The model explains important facts well for many OECD countries. Our simulation results prefer an intelligent pay-as-you-go system above a fully funded private system. Positive effects on employment and growth are the strongest when the pay-as-you-go system includes a tight link between individual labor income and the pension, and when it attaches a high weight to labor income earned as an older worker to compute the pension assessment base. 相似文献
2.
Alexander Kemnitz 《Journal of population economics》2000,13(3):443-462
This paper studies the relationship between public education and pay-as-you-go social security in a representative democracy,
where the government reacts both to voting and lobbying activities of workers and pensioners. While an intergenerational conflict
prevails concerning actual social security contributions, workers may prefer public education for its positive effect on later
pension benefits. Population aging diminishes the relative lobbying power of pensioners, leading to a higher contribution
rate, educational expansion, and higher per capita income growth.
Received: 05 April 1999/Accepted: 20 December 1999 相似文献
3.
Kolmar M 《Journal of population economics》1997,10(3):335-356
For pay-as-you-go financed pension systems, claims may be calculated according to individual contributions (income) or the
number of children of a family. We analyse the optimal structure of these parameters in a model with endogenous fertility.
It is shown that for both structural determinants there exists no interior solution of the problem of intragenerational utility
maximisation. Thus, pure systems are always welfare maximizing. Furthermore, children-related pension claims induce a fiscal
externality that tends to be positive. The determination of the optimal contribution rate shows that the widely accepted Aaron-condition
is in general a misleading indicator for the comparison of fully funded and pay-as-you-go financed pension systems.
Received March 12, 1996 / Accepted January 27, 1997 相似文献
4.
Andreas Wagener 《Journal of population economics》2003,16(1):111-134
Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension schemes can contribute to better intergenerational risk-sharing and diversification. However,
different variants of PAYG schemes entail different properties in these respects. In a stochastic 2-OLG model we compare PAYG
schemes with fixed contribution rates and such with fixed replacement rates. The literature has shown that the former are
preferable to the later from an ex ante perspective. We derive the opposite result for the ex post perspective. Here, schemes with fixed replacement rates are unambiguously preferable: they enhance intergenerational risk-sharing,
lead to a higher savings and higher utility levels. We further show that, from an ex ante (veil-of-ignorance), perspective both schemes are non-comparable if the effect that fixed-replacement schemes serve as an
insurance device for old-age income is properly accounted for.
Received: 7 December 2000/Accepted: 17 May 2001 相似文献
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Pension reform and labor market incentives 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
This paper investigates how parametric reform in a pay-as-you-go pension system with a tax–benefit link affects retirement
and work incentives of prime-age workers. We find that postponed retirement tends to harm incentives of prime-age workers
in the presence of a tax–benefit link, thereby creating a policy trade-off in stimulating aggregate labor supply. We show
how several popular reform scenarios are geared either towards young or old workers or, indeed, both groups under appropriate
conditions. We characterize the excess burden of pension insurance and show how it depends on the supply elasticities of both
decision margins and the effective tax rates. 相似文献
9.
从人口学角度看,养老保险基金的两种基本模式——现收现付制和基金制分别表现为时期平衡和队列平衡。退休者的生活消费均来源于在职职工创造的财富,因此,不仅现收现付制,而且基金制养老保险也体现了代际之间的再分配关系。人口老龄化、劳动力人口数量、人口素质和人口迁移是影响养老保险基金模式选择的主要人口因素。我们要综合考虑人口因素和经济因素来选择我国的养老保险基金模式。 相似文献
10.
During the last fifty years there have in many countries been large movements in the growth of labor productivity, real wage rates, the rate of interest, and the household savings ratio. In this paper we use an overlapping generations model to study if demographic shocks, like the baby boom, can generate the kind of movements observed. Simulations show this is indeed the case. We also study the interactions between a pay-as-you-go pension system and demographic disturbances.We are grateful to Laurence Ball, Alex Cukierman and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. 相似文献
11.
Yang-Ming Chang 《Journal of population economics》2012,25(4):1481-1502
This paper presents a micro-economic model to analyze intergenerational exchange in which the utility maximizing decisions of “selfish” children on family services, labor market activities, and leisure are determined endogenously. We show that altruistic parents’ financial transfers have a disincentive effect on the labor supply of their children and that the children’s equilibrium income is positively correlated with parental income. Based on the theoretical model, we find that redistributing US$1 from children to their parents increases parental transfers by less than US$1, implying that intergenerational public transfers are Ricardian non-neutral. However, the non-neutral redistributive transfers may enhance intergenerational family bonds because the equilibrium levels of services rendered by children to their parents increase. 相似文献
12.
农村养老保险制度的环境建设分析 总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12
文章认为 ,中国农村养老保险制度建设的经济环境、人口环境和政治环境基本具备 ,但农村居民的收入水平、农村居民收入水平地区差异以及农村大量剩余劳动力的存在直接制约农村居民养老保险制度的建立 ,因而政府在农村养老保险制度建立过程中 ,应从提高农村居民收入水平、加大政府财政转移支付力度和加强农村组织资源建设几个方面优化农村养老保险制度的环境 相似文献
13.
John Bongaarts 《Population and development review》2004,30(1):1-23
Rapid population aging is raising concerns about the sustainability of public pension systems in high‐income countries. The first part of this study identifies the four factors that determine trends in public pension expenditures: population aging, pension benefit levels, the mean age at retirement, and the labor force participation rate. The second part presents projections to 2050 of the impact of demographic trends on public pension expenditures in the absence of changes in pension benefits, labor force participation, and age at retirement. These projections demonstrate that current trends are unsustainable, because without reforms population aging will produce an unprecedented and harmful accumulation of public debt. A number of projection variants assess the potential impact of policy options aimed at improving the sustainability of public pension systems. Although the conventional responses are considered, particular attention is given to the demographic options of encouraging higher fertility and permitting more immigration. This analysis is illustrated with data from the seven largest OECD countries. 相似文献
14.
This paper investigates the impact of pension income on living arrangements of the elderly. Taking advantage of a unique opportunity due to the recent establishment and expansion of the New Rural Pension Scheme in China, we explicitly address the endogeneity of pension status and pension income through a fixed-effect model with instrumental variable approach by exploiting exogenous time variation in the program implementation at county level. We find an overall positive effect of pension income on independent living as well as considerable heterogeneity. The positive income effects of the NRPS are concentrated among the elderly with adult children living nearby, of higher socio-economic status, and with better health at baseline; for other groups, the effects are insignificant. We also find that more generous programs exhibit larger effects. Our results highlight that living arrangement is multidimensional in rural China. 相似文献
15.
This paper explores the international spillover effects of ageing through capital markets when countries have different pension
systems. We use a two-country two-period overlapping-generations model, where the two countries only differ in their pension
schemes. Two forms of population ageing are considered, namely, an increase in longevity and a fall in fertility. It is shown
that, in the long run, a country using a funded pension system experiences negative spillovers from the fact that the other
country uses a pay-as-you-go system. The short-run spillovers, however, are opposite to the spillovers in the long run.
相似文献
16.
劳动力缺失背景下新型农村养老保险需求及其影响因素研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
新型农村养老保险试点工作的全面开展、制度优化完善必须充分考虑农村现实状况和农民实际需求,本文以劳动力缺失、老龄化加剧、家庭养老功能弱化为背景,对陕西省西安市10个涉农区县开展实地调查,通过问卷设计与数据收集,获取1156个有效样本,综合运用描述性统计、相关分析和二分类、多分类逻辑回归分析方法,从参保意愿和支付能力的二维视角实证研究新型农村养老保险需求及其影响因素,结果表明:养老风险意识、新农保政策了解程度、新农保政策效果和缴费原则认可程度、耕地面积、期望养老金额是新农保参保意愿的显著影响因素,而表征经济状况的农民家庭年总收入、年基本支出与新农保支付能力之间具有显著的因果关系。 相似文献
17.
Giam Pietro Cipriani 《Journal of population economics》2014,27(1):251-256
This paper shows the effects on a pay-as-you-go pension system of the demographic change in the standard overlapping generations model. Firstly, we consider a setting with exogenous fertility and then a model with endogenous fertility. In both cases, population aging due to increased longevity implies a reduction in pensions payouts. 相似文献
18.
This paper uses a general equilibrium model of marriage and divorce to assess how public policies on parental leave and leave
benefits affect intra-household decision making, family structure, intergenerational mobility, and the distribution of income.
The benchmark economy is calibrated to US data to replicate some characteristics relevant to the interaction between the marriage
and labor markets. The effects of unpaid leave, paid leave benefits, and mandated leave on human capital investment, distribution
of income, and welfare are then analyzed.
相似文献
19.
In this paper we investigate the possibility of Pareto improving social security reforms within a framework of endogenous
growth. Belan et al. (1998) propose a transition from a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system to a system of savings–subsidization.
We follow this approach and prove that a Pareto improving conversion from the PAYG system to a fully funded one is possible.
Finally, we compare the subsidy system with the fully funded system and discuss the problem of implementing the transition
to the fully funded system.
Received: 07 March 1999/Accepted: 13 December 1999 相似文献
20.
依据生命周期均衡收入分配原理,构建家庭子女养老和个人养老收入分配适度水平及其"互补替代"数理模型,从理论和实证角度研究家庭子女养老和个人养老经济结构优化。研究发现:(1)家庭子女养老和个人养老收入分配存在"替代"关系,而在退休年龄延长的条件下,二者存在"互补"关系;(2)家庭子女养老和个人养老替代的均衡点是家庭有2个子女,随着子女数量的增加,家庭子女养老与个人养老边际替代率递减;(3)伴随老年人寿命的延长,家庭子女养老收入再分配系数下降,个人养老收入分配系数上升且上升幅度大于前者下降幅度;(4)家庭子女养老与个人养老之间的"互补替代"效应呈现为"倒V形"曲线,且其替代的均衡点与总和生育率2.1的更替水平存在契合效应。 相似文献