Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

Collective Leadership and Circles: Not Invented Here

Issues like police-community relations, violence—from neighborhood to global levels, economic inequality, and climate change have been only minimally addressed within behavior analysis, despite the oft repeated mantra that they are all at root behavioral. Disciplines determine the scope of their interests; behavior analysis and behavioral systems analysis have long claimed at least potential expertise in changing not only individual behavior, but also the collective and interlocking functioning of larger institutions and systems. In this paper we note that standard organizational behavior management (OBM) practices primarily emphasizing centralized leadership are unlikely to be adequate for such work. We therefore argue that collective leadership, a strategy that has not been emphasized in OBM, will be required to operationalize behavioral systems interventions in situations where centralized leadership is impossible or dangerous, and suggest circle processes as one behaviorally specifiable approach to constructing collective leadership, an approach that behavioral systems analysts are well-positioned to test and refine.     

Interpreting MSHA Citations Through the Lens of Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems: Investigating Their Impact on Mine Injuries and Illnesses 2003–2010

Since the late 1980s, the U.S. Department of Labor has considered regulating a systems approach to occupational health and safety management. Recently, a health and safety management systems (HSMS) standard has returned to the regulatory agenda of both the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA). Because a mandated standard has implications for both industry and regulating bodies alike, it is imperative to gain a greater understanding of the potential effects that an HSMS regulatory approach can have on establishment‐level injuries and illnesses. Through the lens of MSHA's regulatory framework, we first explore how current enforcement activities align with HSMS elements. Using MSHA data for the years 2003–2010, we then analyze the relationship between various types of enforcement activities (e.g., total number of citations, total penalty amount, and HSMS‐aligned citations) and mine reportable injuries. Our findings show that the reduction in mine reportable injuries predicted by increases in MSHA enforcement ranges from negligible to 18%. The results suggest that the type and focus of the enforcement activity may be more important for accident reduction than the total number of citations issued and the associated penalty amount.     

Dynamic Risk Management Systems: Hybrid Architecture and Offshore Platform Illustration

This paper describes and illustrates the architecture of computer-based Dynamic Risk Management Systems (DRMS) designed to assist real-time risk management decisions for complex physical systems, for example, engineered systems such as offshore platforms or medical systems such as patient treatment in Intensive Care Units. A key characteristic of the DRMSs that we describe is that they are hybrid, combining the powers of Probabilistic Risk Analysis methods and heuristic Artificial Intelligence techniques. A control module determines whether the situation corresponds to a specific rule or regulation, and is clear enough or urgent enough for an expert system to make an immediate recommendation without further analysis of the risks involved. Alternatively, if time permits and if the uncertainties justify it, a risk and decision analysis module formulates and evaluates options, including that of gathering further information. This feature is particularly critical since, most of the time, the physical system is only partially observable, i.e., the signals observed may not permit unambiguous characterization of its state. The DRMS structure is also dynamic in that, for a given time window (e.g., 1 day or 1 hour), it anticipates the physical system's state (and, when appropriate, performs a risk analysis) accounting for its evolution, its mode of operations, the predicted external loads and problems, and the possible changes in the set of available options. Therefore, we specifically address the issue of dynamic information gathering for decision-making purposes. The concepts are illustrated focusing on the risk and decision analysis modules for a particular case of real-time risk management on board offshore oil platforms, namely of two types of gas compressor leaks, one progressive and one catastrophic. We describe briefly the DRMS proof-of-concept produced at Stanford, and the prototype (ARMS) that is being constructed by Bureau Veritas (Paris) based on these concepts.     

Municipal Waste Management: Inequities and the Role of Deliberation

Like radioactive waste, municipal solid waste (MSW) requires consideration of a complex mix of intergenerational and intragenerational risks surrounded by uncertain science. Unlike radioactive waste, MSW is a common problem and hence one often perceived to be controllable, at least until a required facility is proposed in a particular community. The intragenerational risks focused on local communities rouse intense public pressures for management. Although some of the risks can be quantified, the risk assessment process cannot deal with all questions. This article examines the multiple dimensions of the decisions required to be made and the weaknesses of a number of decision tools traditionally used. A case is made for the need to integrate decision tools appropriate to the risks into reflexive and iterative decision processes open to public involvement. It is argued that this presents the best hope of both optimizing decisions about the intragenerational risks as well as raising public debate about the importance of sustainable waste management in transgenerational terms.     

内外控人格特质的研究及其在管理中的应用

内外控人格特质是个体对其行为及行为所产生的后果强化后的信念。内外控人格特质的不同不但影响个体对工作的态度,还影响着个体对组织的承诺感及满意度,从而影响到员工工作绩效和离职意图。通过对影响内外控人格特质的因素进行归纳,对目前常用的测量内外控人格特质的量表进行分类,并对内外控人格特质在管理中的应用进行分析的基础上,对国内外内外控人格特质的研究现状进行了较全面的概述,并在此基础上提出了5个方面的研究方向。     

Optimal Enhancement and Lifetime of Software Systems: A Control Theoretic Analysis

We develop an optimal control model to maximize the net value provided by a software system over its useful life. The model determines the initial number of features in the system, the level of dynamic enhancement effort, and the lifetime of the system. The various factors affecting these optimal choices are systems characteristics (e.g., complexity, age, quality), user learning, and process maturity. We also consider that there is a time lag between the addition of a feature and the realization of its benefit to users. The basic model is extended to consider the decision of replacing the existing system by a new one.     

Situational production management: a practical theory for the development and application of production management

Discussions in journals and at conferences often nurture the dream of the ultimate method which may be applied successfully to all situations. Yet everybody knows that ‘it all depends’ and that situational factors determine which methods and systems are appropriate. This paper sets forth to outline a practical theory of a situational approach to production management. Any improvement of production management is seen as a dialogue between identification of the production management task, on the one hand, and specifying a solution system, on the other. A few concepts are introduced to provide practical methods for carrying out an improvement process; in particular, the nature of the production management task is addressed. The implications of the situational theory to be presented are discussed for three levels of application, respectively, the general level, the industry level, and the level of an individual industrial enterprise. It is further argued that the three levels are interdependent and that their joint application may stimulate both the theoretical and practical development of production management.     

Antecedents and consequences of diversity and equality management systems: The importance of gender diversity in the TMT and lower to middle management

Strategic human resource management theory suggests that diversity and equality management (DEM) systems provide a firm with a competitive advantage, leading to superior performance. This study proposes and tests a moderated mediation model focusing on antecedents (i.e. top management team gender diversity) and consequences (i.e. performance) of DEM systems in the context of lower through middle management (LTMM) gender diversity. The model was tested in 248 medium-to large-sized organizations using time-lagged survey and archival data. The findings provide full support for the hypothesis that a gender-diverse top management team is positively associated with DEM systems. The results provide partial support for the following hypotheses: DEM systems are positively associated with performance and this relationship is moderated by LTMM gender diversity; and DEM systems mediate the relationship between TMT gender diversity and performance. We discuss theoretical, research and practical implications.     

When Gray is Good: Gray Markets and Market‐Creating Investments

Gray markets arise when an intermediary buys a product in a lower‐priced, often emerging market and resells it to compete with the product's original manufacturer in a higher priced, more developed market. Evidence suggests that gray markets make the original manufacturer worse off globally by eroding profit margins in developed markets. Thus, it is interesting that many firms do not implement control systems to curb gray market activity. Our analysis suggests that one possible explanation lies at the intersection of two economic phenomena: firms investing to build emerging market demand, and investments conferring positive externalities (spillovers) on a rival's demand. We find that gray markets amplify the incentives to invest in emerging markets, because investments increase both emerging market consumption and the gray market's cost base. Moreover, when market‐creating investments confer positive spillovers, each firm builds its own market more efficiently. Thus, firms can be better off with gray markets when investments confer spillovers, provided the spillover effect is sufficiently large. These results provide a perspective on why firms might not implement control systems to prevent gray market distribution in sectors where investment spillovers are common (e.g., the technology sector) and, more broadly, why gray markets persist in the economy.     

Lean Control for Make‐to‐Order Companies: Integrating Customer Enquiry Management and Order Release

A lead time that is short, predictable, and reliable is an increasingly important criterion in supplier selection. Although many companies may achieve this through lean implementation, high‐variety manufacturers, for example, small and medium‐sized make‐to‐order companies, have found that lean's planning and control techniques do not apply. This article outlines a planning and control concept known as workload control (WLC) that integrates customer enquiry management, including a due‐date setting rule, with order release control. Simulation is then used to assess its impact on shop performance. Results demonstrate that an integrated WLC concept can reduce the percentage of tardy jobs—so short lead times can be realistically quoted—while also reducing and stabilizing workloads. WLC can level demand and production over time when work is not standardized and it is not possible to synchronize flows on the shop floor. Results are shown to be robust to changes in routing characteristics, the mix of orders with due dates specified by the customer and proposed internally, and the strike rate (or order‐winning probability). Hence, an integrated approach to WLC represents an important step toward achieving lean in make‐to‐order companies.     

System of Systems Engineering and Risk Management of Extreme Events: Concepts and Case Study

The domain of risk analysis is expanded to consider strategic interactions among multiple participants in the management of extreme risk in a system of systems. These risks are fraught with complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty, which pose challenges in how participants perceive, understand, and manage risk of extreme events. In the case of extreme events affecting a system of systems, cause‐and‐effect relationships among initiating events and losses may be difficult to ascertain due to interactions of multiple systems and participants (complexity). Moreover, selection of threats, hazards, and consequences on which to focus may be unclear or contentious to participants within multiple interacting systems (ambiguity). Finally, all types of risk, by definition, involve potential losses due to uncertain events (uncertainty). Therefore, risk analysis of extreme events affecting a system of systems should address complex, ambiguous, and uncertain aspects of extreme risk. To accomplish this, a system of systems engineering methodology for risk analysis is proposed as a general approach to address extreme risk in a system of systems. Our contribution is an integrative and adaptive systems methodology to analyze risk such that strategic interactions among multiple participants are considered. A practical application of the system of systems engineering methodology is demonstrated in part by a case study of a maritime infrastructure system of systems interface, namely, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.     

治污减排对经济发展影响的最新研究进展及启示

治污减排是中国调整经济结构、转变发展方式的突破口,必须同时实现节约资源、减少污染和促进发展的多重目标。中国的治污减排问题非常复杂、没有现成经验可循。针对环境、经济、能源之间的相互影响,国内外已有丰富的研究成果。本文试图梳理治污减排对经济影响方面的已有研究,为深入分析、研究中国的环境经济问题提供基础。     

管理科学中国学派如何走向世界？——问题、策略及系统方法论层面的分析

针对管理科学中国学派走向世界的需要,界定了管理科学中国学派的内涵和特色,分析了管理科学中国学派在走向世界过程中存在的问题,提出"通过寻找东西方管理的共同点,让管理科学中国学派走向世界"的策略;以西方的CmCvAwA s系统理论和东方的物理-事理-人理系统理论为例,分析了东西方在系统方法论层面上的相互联系,期望为管理科学中国学派走向世界提供借鉴。     

Chaos and Transformation Theories: A Theoretical Analysis with Implications for Organization Theory and Public Management

Chaos and transformation theories have emerged as new currencies in social sciences in general and in systems design and management, and in futuristic studies in particular. This article analyzes chaos and transformation theories in historical and contemporary perspectives, their contributions to social science in general, and organization theory and public management in particular. The notions of chaos and order, change and continuity, and uncertainty and certainty are analyzed along with the growing realization of complexity and non-linear dynamic features of modern organizations and the hard reality of a constant necessity to acquire new knowledge and learn to manage organizations with flexibility and innovation. Finally, the article addresses some of the limitations of chaos theory and outlines a number of implications for organization theory and public management in the age of globalization.     

Interactive profit-planning systems and market turbulence: A dynamic capabilities perspective

This article describes, theorizes and empirically investigates the concept of interactive profit-planning systems (PPS) through the lens of the dynamic capabilities logic. With this conceptualization: interactive PPS capabilities comprise budgeting, forecasting and results-reporting routines, in which top and middle managers interact to create knowledge for sensing, seizing, and business model reconfiguring (to manage strategic business change). Survey data from 331 Australian firms is analyzed employing partial least squares structural equation modeling. The data provides support for two hypotheses: (1) greater market turbulence strengthens the positive effect of interactive PPS capabilities on business unit performance; and (2) greater market turbulence strengthens the positive effect of flexibility values (of organizational culture) on interactive PPS capabilities. Our findings show that interactive PPS capabilities function according to the salient tenets of the dynamic capabilities logic, and clarify the beneficial roles of formal cybernetic control systems and the intertwined involvement of top and middle managers in using dynamic capabilities.     

Planning and Scheduling in Supply Chains: An Overview of Issues in Practice

This paper gives an overview of the theory and practice of planning and scheduling in supply chains. It first gives an overview of the various planning and scheduling models that have been studied in the literature, including lot sizing models and machine scheduling models. It subsequently categorizes the various industrial sectors in which planning and scheduling in the supply chains are important; these industries include continuous manufacturing as well as discrete manufacturing. We then describe how planning and scheduling models can be used in the design and the development of decision support systems for planning and scheduling in supply chains and discuss in detail the implementation of such a system at the Carlsberg A/S beerbrewer in Denmark. We conclude with a discussion on the current trends in the design and the implementation of planning and scheduling systems in practice.     

风险环境下企业信息系统项目控制对绩效的影响机制研究:基于项目经理和用户代表的双重视角

虽然当前项目管理水平不断提高,但是企业信息系统项目实施的成功率仍然不容乐观。项目干系人缺乏准确的相互认知和角色定位,以及风险与控制的关系无法有效处理是导致项目绩效偏低的重要原因。为了从不同视角探索风险和控制对企业信息系统项目绩效的共同作用,通过对65位项目经理和63位用户代表所经历的128个项目的调查,利用结构方程模型进行实证分析,并采用层次回归分析技术进行检验。实证结果表明,正式控制和非正式控制对信息系统项目绩效都具有积极的影响,但是项目经理认为正式控制具有更加重要的作用,而用户代表认为非正式控制的作用更为显著。此外,项目经理和用户代表均认为组织风险和技术风险会减弱正式和非正式控制对绩效的有效作用。因此在控制方式的选择和组合上不仅要基于项目自身的特点,而且要基于干系人的角色。同时,信息系统项目绩效并非单纯由成功或失败因素所决定,而是取决于两类因素的均衡程度。研究结论为信息系统项目的风险控制提供了全新的理论依据和决策支持。