Estimating Ethnic Genetic Interests: Is It Adaptive to Resist Replacement Migration?

Analyses of the costs and benefits of immigration have not considered the dependence of an ethny's reproductive fitness on its monopoly of a demarcated territory. Global assays of human genetic variation allow estimation of the genetic losses incurred by a member of a population when random fellow ethnics are replaced by immigrants from different ethnies. This potential loss defines an individual's ethnic genetic interest as a quantity that varies with the genetic distance of potential immigrants. W. D. Hamilton showed that self-sacrificial altruism is adaptive when it preserves the genetic interests of a population of genetically similar individuals. Ethnic genetic interest can be so large that altruism on behalf of one's ethny—'ethnic nepotism'—can be adaptive when it prevents replacement. It follows that ethnies usually have an interest in securing and maintaining a monopoly over a demarcated territory, an idea consonant with the universal nationalism of Bismarck and Woodrow Wilson.     

Immigration data and national population estimates for the United States

The immigration component in national population estimates is comparatively small, but it is not insignificant and may indeed be an important source of error. Therefore, it warrants the considera-tion of those concerned with population estimates. The paper considers alternative methods for deriving estimates of immigration from the raw data and presents estimates of net immigration from 1950 to 1965. They are developed from estimates previously published by the Bureau of the Census, but they differ at some points where new data have become available or where a review of the data has led to a change in judgment on how best to use them. The paper also presents suggestions on how immigration statistics might be altered for purposes of improving the estimates.Census data may be used to estimate net immigration by three different methods, but upon analysis each method proves to be inadequate. Hence, data based on visas surrendered at the port of entry must be the principal source of immigration estimates. These data have their limitations because (1) they do not cover net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico, (2) they do not report departures of aliens, and (3) they do not allocate all immigrants to year of entry. Alien registration and passenger data offer possible alternative estimates.The paper attempts to measure unrecorded immigration, discusses how net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico may be estimated, and how the age, sex, and race of immigrants may be treated.     

Immigration and the low-cost housing crisis: The Los Angeles area's experience

Arrivals of new immigrants and the secondary migration of other immigrants to the Los Angeles area are estimated to be as many as 180,000 each year in the 1980s. The Southern California Association of Governments found three-quarters of the immigrants were low-income minorities who are more likely to live in overcrowded enclaves and pay disproportionately high rents. Other data suggest that immigrants—many of them undocumented and Hispanic—are both victims of and contributors to the housing crisis.Although aggravated by immigration, Los Angeles' low-cost housing ills stem from broader national, social and economic trends: gentrification and other commercial conversion of low-cost housing, stagnating federal housing aid, and diminished tax and loan incentives. Skyrocketing costs have dropped the rate of home ownership well below the national average, forcing more people to rent. Condominium conversions, costly safety regulations, rent controls and successful no-growth movements also have contributed to Los Angeles' housing crisis.     

Interior Immigration Enforcement and Political Participation of U.S. Citizens in Mixed-Status Households

The 2000s have witnessed an expansion of interior immigration enforcement in the United States. At the same time, the country has experienced a major demographic transformation, with the number of U.S. citizens living in mixed-status households—that is, households where at least one family member is an unauthorized migrant—reaching 16 million. U.S. citizens living in mixed-status households are personally connected to the struggles experienced by their unauthorized family members. For them, immigration policy is likely to shape their current and future voting behavior. Using data from the 2002–2014 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplements, we examine whether intensified immigration enforcement has affected the political engagement of U.S. citizens living in mixed-status households. We find that immigration enforcement has chilled their electoral participation by lowering their propensity to register by 5 %; however, it has not visibly affected their voting propensity among those registered. Importantly, their lower voting registration likelihood does not seem to reflect indifference for community and public matters, given that it has been accompanied by greater involvement in civic forms of political participation, such as volunteering. Understanding how immigration policy affects the political participation of a fast-growing segment of the electorate is imperative because they will inevitably constitute a rapidly rising political force in future elections.     

Admission of Puerto Rico to the Union of States: Unityis the issue

Proposed Congressional legislation would allow the status of Puerto Rico—as an associated Commonwealth, an independent country, or a state of the United States—to be decided by popular plebiscite in Puerto Rico. The proposed legislation is silent on language policy, an issue of concern to many Americans and which has been much discussed in Puerto Rico. In addition to the divisiveness inherent in bilingualism, the history of the island's relations with the United States raises concern that statehood might lead to a separatist backlash possibly accompanied by violent unrest. The authors urge wider debate and a more deliberate approach to union: one that does not attempt to displace the Spanish tradition but one which protects the traditional language unity of the United States.The authors are public policy analysts who have worked extensively on issues relating to the status of English in the United States. The views expressed in this article are their own, and do not necessarily reflect those of any group or constituency.     

Immigration's prism: Historical continuities in the Kennedy-Simpson legal immigration reform bill

National debates about U.S. immigration policy usually involve a blend of three issues: (1) How many immigrants should the United States accept? (2) Where should the immigrants come from? and (3) What criteria should be used in selecting immigrants? The debate and compromise surrounding the Kennedy-Simpson bill, passed by the U.S. Senate in July 1989 and constituting the Senate's latest attempt to reform U.S.legal immigration policy, is no exception. This paper examines the evolution of the Kennedy-Simpson bill, partly to reveal current directions in U.S. immigration policy but more importantly to use this analysis as a prism through which historical continuities in U.S. immigration reforms may be isolated and evaluated.     

An analysis of net immigration in census coverage evaluation

National surveys monitored growth in the foreign-born population for the 1980s, especially net undocumented migration's continuing role, but the 1990 census portrayed an even larger foreign-born population than these surveys. Undercoverage in 1990 could have been higher than initially presented because preliminary studies may have insufficiently accounted for decadal net immigration. Assumptions intended to maintain a high undocumented undercount performed poorly when census counts of foreign-born residents became known. Any point estimate for net undocumented migration, calculated as a residual, is likely to be biased by assumptions and data gaps for components of calculating net legal immigration, especially in the direction of underestimation. A reasonable statement is that at least 2.1–2.4 million undocumented residents were enumerated in the 1990 census. The number of unenumerated undocumented residents may easily have ranged between 0.5 million and 3.0 million, and a narrower range of 1 million to 2 million is plausible. Despite the importance of undocumented migration measurement for census evaluation and policy purposes, differences among various undocumented estimates are more likely to stem from discrepancies in universe, reference dates, or individual judgment, rather than analytic refinement. Better measurement of the foreignborn population or its census coverage would aid in setting upper limits on net undocumented migration.     

Undocumented youth in limbo: the impact of America’s immigration enforcement policy on juvenile deportations

The surge in unaccompanied minor crossings between 2011 and 2014 led to an overwhelming increase in the number of juvenile deportation proceedings, which coincided with a peak in intensified immigration enforcement at the state and local levels. Using data on juvenile deportation proceedings, we examine how tougher immigration enforcement might have influenced judicial rulings on these cases and, ultimately, these youths’ ability to stay in the country. We find that the average increase in immigration enforcement over that period is associated with a 15% reduction in the share of juvenile cases ending with permission to stay. The result underscores the importance of the immigration policy context in which courts operate on their rulings, even if immigration law is within the jurisdiction of the Federal government. Given the gravity of the circumstances these children are escaping, further attention to how the piecemeal approach to immigration enforcement might impact the protection of their humanitarian rights is warranted.     

俄罗斯人口危机的成因及俄学者对中国劳动移民的综合评价

引进外来移民是俄罗斯摆脱人口危机的现实途径之一。对引进中国劳动移民的利弊问题,俄学者对此看法各异,伴随着俄经济形势的好转,大多数俄学者肯定了中国移民对俄罗斯经济发展的作用,并提出形成完善的移民政策、引入适当数量的移民、避免非法移民流入及民族间冲突是解决俄罗斯人口危机和保证国家安全的有效方法。     

Sweden faces zero population growth

In this discussion of Sweden as it approaches zero population growth, focus is on the following: population growth in perspective, fertility trends (childbearing concentrated and cohort versus period fertility), marital status (non-marital cohabitation, out-of-wedlock births, and divorce), women's changing status (increasing education and increasing employment), constraints and supports for women's dual role (family allowances and housing), birth control (contraceptive methods and practice and abortion), mortality trends, changing age structure and the elderly (average population age and proportion of elderly and cost of elderly support), international migration (from emigration to immigration and demographic impact of immigration), immigration policy, recent population debate (immigration issues and facing zero population growth). Since 1900 the primary features of Sweden's demographic history are a continuing decline in the birth rate to very low levels -- relieved by some upward movement in the 1940s and 1960s -- and a marked shift in the migration balance from emigration to immigration. It is almost entirely because of immigration that Sweden's population growth rate has not yet turned negative. If Swedish women were to continue to bear children at the rate that all women in the reproductive ages actually did in 1978, each women would end up with an average well below the level necessary to exactly replace each adult in the population leaving migration out, an annual total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman would have to be sustained for births and deaths to be in balance under the low mortality conditions prevaling in Sweden.     

Institutional impediments to population policy in Australia

Despite being near the top of the OECD league in rate of population growth, Australia does not have any explicit population policy. The potential constituent parts of one, particularly on immigration, family and environment, are firmly enmeshed in separate political domains and responsive to separate clusters of interests. Vague, demographically ill-informed, and mutually inconsistent views of a desired population size or trajectory for Australia co-exist, with no arena for systematic engagement and considered debate among them. Australia is not alone in this respect: instructive parallels can be drawn from Canada and the United States. Indeed, population policy may well be one of the issues that modern liberal democracies find peculiarly difficult to deal with. However, there are also specific historical circumstances that led to this outcome, and that perpetuate it. Revised version of a paper presented at the Seventh National Conference of the Australian Population Association, held in Canberra in September 1994.     

The Economic Effects of Immigration into the United Kingdom

This article is concerned with the economic effects of immigration. The emphasis is on Britain, but extensive material is also provided on other countries. Since 1997 a new British immigration policy has displaced previous policy aims, which were focused on minimizing settlement. Large-scale immigration is now seen as essential for Britain's economic well-being, and measures have been introduced to increase inflows. The benefits claimed include fiscal advantages, increased prosperity, a ready supply of labor, and improvements to the age structure. Fears that large-scale immigration might damage the interests of unskilled workers are discounted. This article examines these claims. It concludes that the economic consequences of large-scale immigration are mostly minor, negative, or transient, that the interests of more vulnerable sections of the domestic population may well be damaged, and that any economic benefits are unlikely to bear comparison with immigration's probable substantial and permanent demographic and environmental impact. Our claims are in line with those from other developed countries.     

Towards a European migration policy

The stagnating West European population combined with the prosperous economic development of the European Community (EC) generate strong economic incentives for immigration. The drastic political changes in Eastern Europe have caused additional migration pressures. There are a variety of problems with the economic and political integration of migrants, however. The paper argues that immigration can compensate for demographic losses due to the decline and ageing of the European labor force. Economic theory further predicts welfare gains from free factor movements, which should be reaped as long as social costs and adjustment costs are not prohibitive. An active European migration policy is recommended to achieve this aim.This article is a completely revised version of CEPR Discussion Paper No. 641, presented by the second author at the CEPR Workshop The economies of migration on 23 November 1991 in London, UK, and at a hearing of the European Parliament on 25 May 1992 in Bruxelles, Belgium.     

Bequests as a heir "disciple device."

This paper develops a model ofinter vivos gifts and bequests in a setting of moral hazard and adverse selection. Altruistic parents do not perfectly know how much effort their children make to earn their living, nor do they know their true level of ability.Inter vivos gifts take place prior to the realization of the children's earnings whereas at the moment of bequests, parents do observe them. We show that an optimal transfer policy generally uses a mix ofinter vivos gifts — deemed as more efficient — and bequests — deemed as more redistributive.We are thankful to Allessandro Cigno, Jacques Cremer, Claude d Aspremont and anonymous referees for their comments.Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno     

A theoretical framework of collective action for the evaluation of family planning programs

Typically, a family planning program seeks to alter individuals' fertility behavior. The very necessity for the existence of a family planning program presumes that individuals' fertility expectations and behavior are not yet consistent with the objectives of the program. Therefore, some individuals may choose not to cooperate. In this article I establish a theoretical framework for the evaluation of family planning programs by synthesizing the literature on the theory of collective action. Because of the characteristics of collective action — indivisibility and externality — noncooperation (free riding) is bound to occur. Faced with the problem of free riding, a good family planning program should ideally apply selective incentives, localize the costs and benefits, and invest in social capital. The relations among these three factors, cooperation, and fertility are also spelled out.An earlier version of this article was presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, Washington, DC, 11–15 August 1990.     

U.S. Citizen Children De Facto Deported to Mexico

Between 2000 and 2015, the U.S. deported unprecedented numbers of Mexican immigrants. During the same period, the population of U.S.-born children living in Mexico doubled in size. This study estimates the number of U.S.-born children who emigrated to Mexico from the United States in order to accompany a deported parent: de facto deported children. The data come from the Mexican National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID), a national probability sample of households in Mexico collected in 2014 and 2018. About one in six U.S.-born children living in Mexico in 2014/2018, amounting to an estimated 80,000–100,000 U.S.-born children, were there because the U.S. government deported one or both of their parents. De facto deported U.S.-born children are socioeconomically disadvantaged in Mexico compared to U.S.-born children whose parents migrate to Mexico for other reasons. Women are overrepresented among deported people who bring their U.S.-born children to Mexico, and when deported mothers bring their children, they are far less likely to do so with a partner than are deported fathers. U.S. policy should consider the interests of U.S. citizen children forced to live abroad when redesigning immigration and child welfare policies.     

People,fire, and wildland environments

The mixing of people, wildlands, and fire hazards—the urban/wildland interface—is creating a management problem that offers both challenges and opportunities to resource managers. This paper provides an overview of the many facets of the urban/wildland fire interface. The nature of the problem is defined, and the steps that managers have taken since the mid-1980s to define the problem and increase awareness are described. Building awareness of policy problems, however, is only a first step in any policy development process. Concern and interest must be translated into sustained policy action. To do so will require capturing the attention of a broader audience, transferring technological improvements to all impacted interests, and systematically evaluating a broad range of innovative policy alternatives. The activities taking place in Palm Coast, Florida illustrate the involvement and resources of local citizens, researchers, and government entities that will need to be marshalled to work toward a solution of the problem.     

The effect of long-term migration dynamics on population structure in England & Wales and Scotland

We investigated the effect of migration on population dynamics in England & Wales and Scotland from the mid-nineteenth century to the present by comparing actual population size and structure with estimates based on zero net migration from a range of starting dates. In this period, Scotland had the largest net outflow among countries in Europe for which detailed information is available, whereas overall net migration in England & Wales was close to zero. In the absence of migration, population would have been over twice as large in Scotland in 2013 as the actual value, but similar to its actual value in England & Wales. Levels and pace of population ageing have been broadly similar in both countries, so the major impact of differential migration has been on population size rather than structure. We discuss these findings in relation to the debate on migration policy between political parties supporting and opposing independence in the 2014 Scottish referendum.     

A brief for a tax-based U.S. immigration policy

This paper briefly reviews the present state of U.S. immigration policy from an economic perspective. It contends that the present system confounds two independent dimensions of immigration policy—residence and employment. It argues that far too much attention is paid to who is admitted to the U.S. and far too little to what people do once they enter. The proposed policy is a system of taxes and transfer payments designed to regulate the employment of foreign nationals and to compensate domestic workers who are adversely affected economically. The paper works out the economics of the tax and demonstrates that such a system could ideally remove all adverse economic effects of immigration.     

Another Child? Fertility Ideals,Resources and Opportunities

Low fertility in most developed countries has prompted policy concern in relation to labour market supply, pensions, and expenditure on health and welfare services as well as policy debate about both the cost of children and the opportunity costs of parenthood. The extent to which family policy interventions can be effective in slowing or reversing fertility decline is much debated. This paper, based on a fertility module of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 2005, examines the current fertility, and ideal and expected fertility of a nationally representative sample of 455 parents of reproductive age and focuses on whether they plan to have another child. It compares the characteristics of those who intend to have another child with those who do not, and how parents with one child differ from those with more children. It addresses three questions about family size: (1) fertility ideals, (2) resources and the economic implications of childbearing, and (3) opportunities for childbearing and the effects of a late start on fertility expectations. It concludes that, despite a sustained period of low fertility in Scotland, childbearing ideals are robust and explanations of low fertility must derive from difficulties in realising those ideals. Difficulties in realising fertility aspirations are associated less with resources than with opportunities for childbearing, especially the timing of first birth. Those who delay their first birth are less likely to realise their ideal family size, and their lower fertility is associated with the opportunity costs of childbearing in terms of foregone qualifications, careers and earnings.