THE LONG-RUN LINK BETWEEN MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION

Is inflation always a monetary phenomenon? Many economists believe that the link between money growth and inflation in the U.S. has weakened over the last two decades due in part to the Federal Reserve's policy experiment in 1979–1982 and innovations in the financial sector of the economy. I find that the long-run relationship between money growth and inflation is strong in a statistical sense and important economically. The key result is that the trend or growth component in CPI inflation is entirely due to the trend component of monetary base growth. (JEL C32, E31, E51)     

EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: THE ROLE OF REAL SHOCKS AND THE VELOCITY OF MONEY

The effects of stochastic output shocks on the behavior of ex-change rates and nominal price levels is studied within the context of a two-country, cash-in-advance model. The analysis of this model, in contrast to the existing cash-in-advance literature, demonstrates that exchange rates can be more volatile than price levels even though agents' elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic goods is greater than one-half. This possibility arises when output shocks are autocorrelated and are due to revisions in expectations that affect the terms of trade and/or the velocity of money.     

THE RELATION BETWEEN NARRATIVE AND MONEY MARKET INDICATORS OF MONETARY POLICY

This paper studies the relation between narrative-based indicators of monetary policy and widely used money market indicators of monetary policy. Three principal findings emerge. First, changes in monetary policy, as measured by the narrative-based policy indices, are associated with persistent changes in the levels of M2 and the monetary base. In contrast, changes in the narrative policy indicators lead to transitory changes in short-term interest rates, nonborrowed reserves, and the spread between the six-month commercial paper rate and the three-month treasury bill rate. Third, these findings are generally robust across different narrative-based policy indices.     

THE MEANING OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF MEANING

The interrelation between “processes” and “structures” is addressed in this article with a discussion of quantum theory and classical physics, on the one hand and pragmatic theories of meaning and structuralist ones, on the other. It is concluded that just as quantum theory needs the apparatus of classical physics to establish its own phenomena, pragmatic theories need structuralist apparatus to establish their own. It is argued that both in the case of quanta as in that of meaning, measurement procedures create similar relations of uncertainty: Heisenberg relations in physics and Meadian relations in sociopsychology.     

INFLATION, HEDGING AND THE DEMAND FOR MONEY: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

This paper explores the role of nominal rate of return uncertainty and inflation hedging as potentially important factors explaining the pattern of money demand. Using U.S. quarterly data over the period 1952.2–1982.4, it is shown that in conformity with theoretical considerations the nominal rate of return uncertainty variable tends to have a significantly positive effect and the inflation hedging variable (the covariance between nominal rate of return and inflation rate) a significantly negative effect on the demand for money. These findings seem to be reasonably robust in terms of various definitions of income, interest rates, inflation rate and money variables as well as in terms of different estimation methods.     

THE EFFECTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE LEVERAGE OF NONFINANCIAL FIRMS

This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of nonfinancial firms' short-term leverage and macroeconomic and idiosyncratic sources of uncertainty. We develop a structural model of a firm's value maximization problem that predicts a negative relationship between uncertainty and optimal levels of borrowing. This proposition is tested using a panel of nonfinancial U.S. firms drawn from the COMPUSTAT quarterly database covering the period 1993–2003. The estimates confirm that as either form of uncertainty increases, firms decrease their levels of short-term leverage. This effect is stronger for macroeconomic uncertainty than for idiosyncratic uncertainty. ( JEL C23, D8, D92, G32)     

UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEMAND FOR MONEY DURING HYPERINFLATION

Much recent empirical work on hyperinflation has centered on the direct and indirect effects of uncertainty on the demand for money. We test the hypothesis, originally put forward by Klein, that uncertainty positively affects the demand for real balances. A variant of Cagan's demand for money function is utilized and operational measures of uncertainty are derived by fitting autoregressive integrated moving average models to the inflation series for each of three hyperinflation nations. We find that the most reasonable measures of variation do not significantly enter the money demand function for any of the three hyperinflations studied.     

THE CREDIT‐CHANNEL TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND THE NONLINEAR GROWTH AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF INFLATION AND TAXES

With the credit‐channel effect driven by the central bank's open market operations, this paper's model easily gives rise to the nonlinear inflation‐growth nexus, which is evidenced by a number of cross‐country empirical studies. The threshold level of the inflation rate is found to be lower when tax rates are higher. The presence of the credit‐channel effect also provides the rationale for setting positive (and smaller than 1) tax rates on consumption, labor income, and capital income. The optimal tax rates rise as the inflation target declines. Under a fiscal policy rule where labor and capital income taxes move proportionally to each other, the optimal capital income tax rate could be higher than the optimal labor income tax rate. Under a sufficiently large central bank balance sheet, the credit‐channel effect will be so weak that inflation and all kinds of taxes are growth and welfare repressing. This provides a rationale for central banks that have implemented quantitative easing policies to shrink their balance sheets. (JEL E58, E62, O42)     

THE EFFECT OF FISCAL POLICY ON THE SHORT-RUN RELATION BETWEEN NOMINAL INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION

This paper presents a simple empirical model of the relation between the inflation rate and the nominal interest rate. We show that previous results found in the literature may be attributed to specification error and that there are natural explanations for the observed signs of previous Fisher equation estimates. Our results show that fiscal policy shocks may generate short run negative correlations between changes in inflation and changes in the nominal interest rates. These results illustrate the difficulty in discussing the relation between inflation and nominal interest rates without conditioning the analysis with specific assumptions on the course of the economy.     

TAX EFFECTS, PRICE EXPECTATIONS AND THE NOMINAL RATE OF INTEREST

This paper investigates the relationship between price expectations, income taxes and the nominal rate of interest in Canada. Our primary approach was to utilize the rational expectations hypothesis to create a synthetic price expectations series and to apply this series to four models of the determination of the nominal rate of interest; the Yohe-Karnovsky model, the Carr-Smith model, the Feldstein-Eckstein model and the Jenkins-Lim model. The analysis is inconclusive with respect to the Darby hypothesis that income tax considerations will cause the nominal rate of interest to increase by more than the increase in the expected rate of inflation.     

FURTHER EVIDENCE ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT AND INFLATION

Does an increase in the federal debt cause inflation? Dwyer [1982] using a par value measure of debt, finds no support for such a causal link. Cox [1985] using a market value measure, finds evidence that increases in debt produce higher inflation rates. We reconcile these results by demonstrating that failure to capture the interest rate effects inherent in the market value measure accounts for the finding that debt "causes" inflation. Incorporating interest rates into our test equations using the market value series leads us to conclude that, like the par value series results, increases in federal debt do not cause higher rates of inflation.     

STOCHASTIC INFLATION AND THE OPTIMAL POLICY OF PRICE ADJUSTMENT

This paper analyzes the optimal policy of price adjustment for a monopolistic firm in the presence of stochastic inflation. It shows that an increase in the expected rate of inflation or in the cost of price adjustment leads to an increase in the initial real price and a decrease in the terminal real price in each period with a fixed nominal price. It also shows that the effects of increased riskiness of inflation are ambiguous.     

A POSITIVE THEORY OF INFLATION AND INFLATION VARIANCE

Empirically, inflation and the variance of inflation are positively associated. This paper develops a model that provides a potential explanation for this relationship in tern of the incentives facing the policymaker in a "discretionary equilibrium." The model can also account for an empirical association between inflation and measures of real output instability. There is, however, no direct causal link whatever from the average rate of inflation to either the variance of inflation or that of real output.     

NEW EVIDENCE ON INCOME AND THE VELOCITY OF MONEY

Time series and cross-country empirical results suggest that cash holding as a proportion of income rises, or equivalently that velocity falls, as income increases. Numerous cross sectional findings at many points in time, in several countries conclude oppositely. It is argued here that the former findings suffer from omitted variable bias by ignoring sociodemographic variables affecting the demand for cash balances. When one incorporates such demand shifters into the analysis the time series and cross-country findings are seen as consistent with the critically reexamined cross sectional result that velocity increases with income.     

ADJUSTMENT TO PRODUCTION UNCERTAINTY AND THE THEORY OF THE FIRM

This paper considers the behavior of the firm which faces uncertainty in its production process but can adjust its output once the uncertainty is resolved. Ex post adjustment, unlike previous treatments, involves a marginal cost penalty if more output is required and a lowering of price if too much is produced. With ex post adjustment allowed in this fashion, it is found that nonlinear risk preferences do not affect the sign of the firm's marginal risk premium at optimum ex ante output. The firm will produce less output than under certainty whether it is risk averse, risk neutral, or prefers risk.