Approximations to the powers of the likelihood ratio tests: the loop ordering and slippage alternatives

Approximations to the power functions of the likelihood ratio tests of homogeneity of normal means against the simple loop ordering at slippage alternatives are considered. If a researcher knows which mean is smallest and which is largest, but does not know how the other means are ordered, then a simple loop ordering is appropriate. The accuracy of the several moment approximations are studied for the case of known variances and it is found that for powers in the range typically of interest, the two-moment approximation seems quite adequate. Approximations based on mixtures of noncentral F variables are developed for the case of unknown variances. The critical values of the test statistics are also tabulated for selected levels of significance.     

The power functions of the likelihood ratio tests for a simple tree ordering in normal means: unequal weights

Likelihood ratio tests are considered for two testing situations; testing for the homogeneity of k normal means against the alternative restricted by a simple tree ordering trend and testing the null hypothesis that the means satisfy the trend against all alternatives. Exact expressions are given for the power functions for k = 3 and 4 and unequal sample sizes, both for the case of known and unknown population variances, and approximations are discussed for larger k. Also, Bartholomew’s conjectures concerning minimal and maximal powers are investigated for the case of equal and unequal sample sizes. The power formulas are used to compute powers for a numerical example.     

Evaluating the Accuracy of Small P‐Values In Genetic Association Studies Using Edgeworth Expansions

The asymptotic distributions of many classical test statistics are normal. The resulting approximations are often accurate for commonly used significance levels, 0.05 or 0.01. In genome‐wide association studies, however, the significance level can be as low as 1×10⁻⁷, and the accuracy of the p‐values can be challenging. We study the accuracies of these small p‐values are using two‐term Edgeworth expansions for three commonly used test statistics in GWAS. These tests have nuisance parameters not defined under the null hypothesis but estimable. We derive results for this general form of testing statistics using Edgeworth expansions, and find that the commonly used score test, maximin efficiency robust test and the chi‐squared test are second order accurate in the presence of the nuisance parameter, justifying the use of the p‐values obtained from these tests in the genome‐wide association studies.     

Testing order restricted hypotheses with proportional hazards

Inferences for survival curves based on right censored continuous or grouped data are studied. Testing homogeneity with an ordered restricted alternative and testing the order restriction as the null hypothesis are considered. Under a proportional hazards model, the ordering on the survival curves corresponds to an ordering on the regression coefficients. Approximate likelihood methods are obtained by applying order restricted procedures to the estimates of the regression coefficients. Ordered analogues to the log rank test which are based on the score statistics are considered also. Chi-bar-squared distributions, which have been studied extensively, are shown to provide reasonable approximations to the null distributions of these tests statistics. Using Monte Carlo techniques, the powers of these two types of tests are compared with those that are available in the literature.     

Testing for a trend in exponential means: A two-moment approximation to the null distribution of the likelihood-ratio statistic

The likelihood-ratio test statistic for testing homogeneity of exponential means with an ordered alternative has a rather complex null distribution. Expressions for the mean and variance of its null distribution are derived, and the accuracy of a two-moment chi-squared approximation is studied. The coefficients needed to implement the approximation are tabled. The application of these results in testing for a constant versus a nondecreasing intensity in a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is also discussed.     

Comparing Survival Times for Treatments with Those for a Control Under Proportional Hazards

Inferences for survival curves based on right censored data are studied for situations in which it is believed that the treatments have survival times at least as large as the control or at least as small as the control. Testing homogeneity with the appropriate order restricted alternative and testing the order restriction as the null hypothesis are considered. Under a proportional hazards model, the ordering on the survival curves corresponds to an ordering on the regression coefficients. Approximate likelihood methods, which are obtained by applying order restricted procedures to the estimates of the regression coefficients, and ordered analogues to the log rank test, which are based on the score statistics, are considered. Mau's (1988) test, which does not require proportional hazards, is extended to this ordering on the survival curves. Using Monte Carlo techniques, the type I error rates are found to be close to the nominal level and the powers of these tests are compared. Other order restrictions on the survival curves are discussed briefly.     

On similarity and independence properties of composite edf goodness-of-fit tests

Many test statistics for classical simple goodness-of-fit hypothesis testing problems are distancemeasures between the distribution function of the null hypothesis distributipn and the empirical distribution function sometimes called EDF tests. If a composite parametric null hypothesis is considered in place of the simple null hypothesis, then a test statistic can be obtained from each EDF test by replacing the known distribution function of the simple problem by the Rao-Blackwell estimating distribution function. In this note we use known results to show that these Rao-Blackwell-EDF test statistics have distributions that do not depend upon parameter values, and hence that these tests are independent of a complete sufficient statistic for the parameters.     

Durbin–Watson and Generalized Durbin–Watson Tests for Autocorrelations and Randomness

The Durbin–Watson (DW) test for lag 1 autocorrelation has been generalized (DWG) to test for autocorrelations at higher lags. This includes the Wallis test for lag 4 autocorrelation. These tests are also applicable to test for the important hypothesis of randomness. It is found that for small sample sizes a normal distribution or a scaled beta distribution by matching the first two moments approximates well the null distribution of the DW and DWG statistics. The approximations seem to be adequate even when the samples are from nonnormal distributions. These approximations require the first two moments of these statistics. The expressions of these moments are derived.     

New tests for stochastic order with application to case control studies

It is shown that if a binary regression function is increasing then retrospective sampling induces a stochastic ordering of the covariate distributions among the responders, which we call cases, and the non-responders, which we call controls. We also show that if the covariate distributions are stochastically ordered then the regression function must be increasing. This means that testing whether the regression function is monotone is equivalent to testing whether the covariate distributions are stochastically ordered. Capitalizing on these new probabilistic observations we proceed to develop two new non-parametric tests for stochastic order. The new tests are based on either the maximally selected, or integrated, chi-bar statistic of order one. The tests are easy to compute and interpret and their large sampling distributions are easily found. Numerical comparisons show that they compare favorably with existing methods in both small and large samples. We emphasize that the new tests are applicable to any testing problem involving two stochastically ordered distributions.     

Power Maps in Goodness-of-fit Testing Based on Censored Samples

In goodness-of-fit testing based on Type-II right censored samples, mainly either classical tests are applied to transformed samples, which can be considered as full samples under the null hypothesis, or modifications of the tests are applied to the original samples. Results of an extensive simulation study are presented and discussed in order to compare the different approaches and tests by means of powers against beta alternatives. Depending on the beta parameters, illustrative plots lead to recommended tests in given situations, where there is some prior belief about the size of these parameters in the alternative. Moreover, the effects of adding artificial realizations via random dilation are examined.     

General Saddlepoint Approximation for Testing Separate Location-Scale Families of Hypotheses

For testing separate families of hypotheses, the likelihood ratio test does not have the usual asymptotic properties. This paper considers the asymptotic distribution of the ratio of maximized likelihoods (RML) statistic in the special case of testing separate scale or location-scale families of distributions. We derive saddlepoint approximations to the density and tail probabilities of the log of the RML statistic. These approximations are based on the expansion of the log of the RML statistic up to the second order, which is shown not to depend on the location and scale parameters. The resulting approximations are applied in several cases, including normal versus Laplace, normal versus Cauchy, and Weibull versus log-normal. Our results show that the saddlepoint approximations are satisfactory, even for fairly small sample sizes, and are more accurate than normal approximations and Edgeworth approximations, especially for tail probabilities that are the values of main interest in hypothesis testing problems.     

A simple nonparametric test for bivariate symmetry about a line

Over the years many researchers have dealt with testing the hypotheses of symmetry in univariate and multivariate distributions in the parametric and nonparametric setup. In a multivariate setup, there are several formulations of symmetry, for example, symmetry about an axis, joint symmetry, marginal symmetry, radial symmetry, symmetry about a known point, spherical symmetry, and elliptical symmetry among others. In this paper, for the bivariate case, we formulate a concept of symmetry about a straight line passing through the origin in a plane and accordingly develop a simple nonparametric test for testing the hypothesis of symmetry about a straight line. The proposed test is based on a measure of deviance between observed counts of bivariate samples in suitably defined pairs of sets. The exact null distribution and non-null distribution, for specified classes of alternatives, of the test statistics are obtained. The null distribution is tabulated for sample size from n=5 up to n=30. The null mean, null variance and the asymptotic null distributions of the proposed test statistics are also obtained. The empirical power of the proposed test is evaluated by simulating samples from the suitable class of bivariate distributions. The empirical findings suggest that the test performs reasonably well against various classes of asymmetric bivariate distributions. Further, it is advocated that the basic idea developed in this work can be easily adopted to test the hypotheses of exchangeability of bivariate random variables and also bivariate symmetry about a given axis which have been considered by several authors in the past.     

Likelihood ratio tests in linear mixed models with one variance component

Summary.  We consider the problem of testing null hypotheses that include restrictions on the variance component in a linear mixed model with one variance component and we derive the finite sample and asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test and the restricted likelihood ratio test. The spectral representations of the likelihood ratio test and the restricted likelihood ratio test statistics are used as the basis of efficient simulation algorithms of their null distributions. The large sample χ ² mixture approximations using the usual asymptotic theory for a null hypothesis on the boundary of the parameter space have been shown to be poor in simulation studies. Our asymptotic calculations explain these empirical results. The theory of Self and Liang applies only to linear mixed models for which the data vector can be partitioned into a large number of independent and identically distributed subvectors. One-way analysis of variance and penalized splines models illustrate the results.     

A quick and easy distribution-free test for main effxcts in a two-factor ANOVA

A distribution-free test for main-effects in a two-factor ANOVA is studied and an extensive set of tables for its exact null distributions is presented. Two different large sample approximations for its null distributions are discussed and the adequacy of each approximation is studied. Recommendations are made concerning the sample sizes required for the use of each of these approximations.     

Convergence of posterior odds

The problem of approximating an interval null or imprecise hypothesis test by a point null or precise hypothesis test under a Bayesian framework is considered. In the literature, some of the methods for solving this problem have used the Bayes factor for testing a point null and justified it as an approximation to the interval null. However, many authors recommend evaluating tests through the posterior odds, a Bayesian measure of evidence against the null hypothesis. It is of interest then to determine whether similar results hold when using the posterior odds as the primary measure of evidence. For the prior distributions under which the approximation holds with respect to the Bayes factor, it is shown that the posterior odds for testing the point null hypothesis does not approximate the posterior odds for testing the interval null hypothesis. In fact, in order to obtain convergence of the posterior odds, a number of restrictive conditions need to be placed on the prior structure. Furthermore, under a non-symmetrical prior setup, neither the Bayes factor nor the posterior odds for testing the imprecise hypothesis converges to the Bayes factor or posterior odds respectively for testing the precise hypothesis. To rectify this dilemma, it is shown that constraints need to be placed on the priors. In both situations, the class of priors constructed to ensure convergence of the posterior odds are not practically useful, thus questioning, from a Bayesian perspective, the appropriateness of point null testing in a problem better represented by an interval null. The theories developed are also applied to an epidemiological data set from White et al. (Can. Veterinary J. 30 (1989) 147–149.) in order to illustrate and study priors for which the point null hypothesis test approximates the interval null hypothesis test. AMS Classification: Primary 62F15; Secondary 62A15     

Goodness-of-fit test for uniform stochastic ordering among several distributions

The likelihood-ratio test (LRT) is considered as a goodness-of-fit test for the null hypothesis that several distribution functions are uniformly stochastically ordered. Under the null hypothesis, H₁ : F₁ ? F₂ ?···? F_N, the asymptotic distribution of the LRT statistic is a convolution of several chi-bar-square distributions each of which depends upon the location parameter. The least-favourable parameter configuration for the LRT is not unique. It can be two different types and depends on the number of distributions, the number of intervals and the significance level α. This testing method is illustrated with a data set of survival times of five groups of male fruit flies.     

CRITICAL VALUE APPROXIMATIONS FOR TESTS OF LINEAR REGRESSION DISTURBANCES

Two important classes of tests for non-spherical disturbances in the linear regression model involve test statistics whose null distributions and hence critical values depend on the regressors. This paper investigates the accuracy of the normal, two moment beta and four moment beta approximations to the critical values of such tests. An empirical experiment aimed at evaluating the accuracy of the approximations for a variety of tests against autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity is conducted. Overall the approximations are found to provide reasonably accurate critical values with skewness being a factor determining the degree of accuracy.     

Hypothesis testing in smoothing spline models

Nonparametric regression models are often used to check or suggest a parametric model. Several methods have been proposed to test the hypothesis of a parametric regression function against an alternative smoothing spline model. Some tests such as the locally most powerful (LMP) test by Cox et al. (Cox, D., Koh, E., Wahba, G. and Yandell, B. (1988). Testing the (parametric) null model hypothesis in (semiparametric) partial and generalized spline models. Ann. Stat., 16, 113–119.), the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) ratio test and the generalized cross validation (GCV) test by Wahba (Wahba, G. (1990). Spline models for observational data. CBMS-NSF Regional Conference Series in Applied Mathematics, SIAM.) were developed from the corresponding Bayesian models. Their frequentist properties have not been studied. We conduct simulations to evaluate and compare finite sample performances. Simulation results show that the performances of these tests depend on the shape of the true function. The LMP and GML tests are more powerful for low frequency functions while the GCV test is more powerful for high frequency functions. For all test statistics, distributions under the null hypothesis are complicated. Computationally intensive Monte Carlo methods can be used to calculate null distributions. We also propose approximations to these null distributions and evaluate their performances by simulations.     

Ordering Comparison of Logarithmic Series Random Variables with their Mixtures

The problem of comparing some known distributions in various types of stochastic orderings has been of interest to many authors. In particular, several authors have been recently concerned with the comparison of Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial distributions with their respective mixtures. Incidentally, these distributions are among the four well-known distributions of the family of generalized power series distributions (GPSD's). The remaining distribution is the logarithmic series distribution. In this paper, we shall be concerned with comparing this remaining distribution of the class GPSD with its mixture in terms of various types of stochastic orderings such as the simple stochastic, likelihood ratio, uniformly more variable, convex, hazard rate and expectation orderings. Derivation of the results in this case prove to be computationally trickier than the other three. The special case when the means of the two distributions are the same is also discussed. Finally, an illustrative explicit example is provided.     

Testing Equality of Order Constrained Inverse Gaussian Means

The inverse Gaussian family of non negative, skewed random variables is analytically simple, and its inference theory is well known to be analogous to the normal theory in numerous ways. Hence, it is widely used for modeling non negative positively skewed data. In this note, we consider the problem of testing homogeneity of order restricted means of several inverse Gaussian populations with a common unknown scale parameter using an approach based on the classical methods, such as Fisher's, for combining independent tests. Unlike the likelihood approach which can only be readily applied to a limited number of restrictions and the settings of equal sample sizes, this approach is applicable to problems involving a broad variety of order restrictions and arbitrary sample size settings, and most importantly, no new null distributions are needed. An empirical power study shows that, in case of the simple order, the test based on Fisher's combination method compares reasonably with the corresponding likelihood ratio procedure.