社会基础设施建设、开放型人口红利与区域经济高质量发展

在构建"双循环"新发展格局背景下,我国需要引入新的人口红利作为经济高质量发展的动力来源.笔者基于开放型人口红利概念和2005年—2016年我国部分省份数据,探究社会基础设施建设、开放型人口红利和区域经济高质量发展之间的关系,为我国在经济发展新常态下应对传统人口红利消失提供新思路,以期加快新旧动能转换,推动欠发达地区更好...     

户籍改革可及时释放经济红利

“对于保持经济增长来说,户籍制度改革或者说提高户籍人口的城镇化率是一个一石三鸟的改革措施,可以带来非常及时的改革红利。”     

西咸新区应对经济新常态的新思路和新模式

我国经济发展进入新常态, 经济下行压力加大, 增长速度放缓, 但从长期来看, 新常态也孕育着体制改革红利、 潜在人才红利、 新型城镇化和 "一带一路" 战略等新机遇. 作为承担我国改革开放和制度创新 "试验田" 的国家级新区, 西咸新区从体制改革、 转型发展、 产业招商和新型城镇化等方面抢抓新机遇, 积极作为, 保持经济发展活力, 努力探索引领发展的新思路和新模式.     

我国商业银行在房地产热潮中面临两难选择

高等教育对我国农业经济增长有多大?南京农业大学宋华明和苏州市委王荣测算了1990—2000年我国高等教育对农业经济增长的贡献率。他们指出，在这十年当中，我国国民生产总值中农业年平均增长率为3．81个百分点，其中有1．34个百分点是由教育带来的，所占份额是35．23％。即这期间农村劳动力受教育程度对国民生产总值中农业年平均增长速度的贡献率为35．23％，但高等教育的贡献率仅为0．354％。可见，1990—2000年我国教育对农业平均增长速度的贡献率已较大，但高等教育对农业增长速度的贡献是非常低的。     

我国“人口红利”期可延续25年

国务院参事马力在作题为《中国劳动力变动趋势及判断》的报告时说,我国人口抚养比将在2013年出现“拐点”,但仍然有25年“人口红利”期。“人15红利”期是指随着生育率的下降和人口再生产类型的转变,出现庞大的劳动年龄人口和相对较少的老年人和儿童,这一时期的人口年龄结构最富生产性、人口抚养负担较轻。     

印度特色的经济改革与发展之路

一位印度经济学家苏尔吉达·巴拉曾经说到:自从二战以来,每隔10年就有一个地区的经济起飞,50年代是欧洲,60年代是日本,70年代是香港,80年代是东南亚,90年代是中国,现在轮到印度了!”因为我们已在很长的时间里低于我们的增长潜力。”的确,印度自1991年实施改革以来,经济增长速度加快,GDP年均增长率达6．06％,成为世界上为数不多的几个经济增速最快的国家之一。     

“人口红利”与福州住宅真实需求

"人口红利"是指从事经济活动的人口不断增加带来的高生产率与高储蓄率,从而形成较高的资本积累."人口红利"变化对住宅真实需求影响巨大.万科首席研究员谭华杰说过,看懂人口就看懂了房地产.要看懂人口最关键的是看懂"人口红利".     

跨越式发展与新一轮竞争——环渤海地区经济发展新格局

一、环渤海地区发展提速,第三个增长极作用凸显 2006年环渤海区域五省市的地区生产总值达到了54775.4亿元,占全国国内生产总值209407亿元的26.2%,接近于长三角和珠三角的总和.从增长态势看,环渤海地区在近年来保持了经济快速增长的势头,和全国平均增长速度比较,这三大经济区的发展速度均远远高于全国经济的平均增长速度,2006年全国平均GDP增长率为10.7%,而环渤海、长三角和珠三角地区均在16%以上.     

2009—2049中国经济的五大趋势

目前中国经济正在面临五个渐进性的长期趋势：（1）以信息技术和生物技术为代表的供给革命正在向全球扩散，纳米技术革命开始崭露头角，中国经济面临生产力革命的考验；（2）中国劳动力供给在2014年到达顶峰后下降，人口红利退色，老龄化趋势不可阻挡，中国人口的中位年龄将从2008年的平均33岁逐渐增长到2049年的近45岁，中华民族整体创造力受到挑战；     

人口红利与移民人口

最近,媒体有两个截然相反的新闻很抢人们的眼球。一是”‘人口红利’的消失”,一是“移民人口的增多”。于是乎有人惊呼我国“世界工厂”将是“风光不再”;相反地,国人中的精英和30年改革中富起来的有钱人纷纷移民欧美等发达国家,这无异又给中国的人口红利“消失”雪上加霜。     

Before Crisis: Gender and Economic Outcomes of the Two Largest Immigrant Communities in Spain1

In this study, we compare labor force outcomes of the two largest immigrant communities in Spain (Moroccans and Romanians) before the economic crisis hit. We are interested in understanding if and how gender influences the labor force outcomes (wage per hour, labor force participation, and unemployment rate) of these two immigrant groups. Our analyses show that, overall, gender is an important variable on Spanish labor market, but it affects differently the two groups. There is a male job market and a female job market for both Romanian and Moroccan immigrants, with men earning significantly higher wages than women. However, while for Moroccans, working women differ significantly from men in terms of demographic characteristics, Romanian women and men have similar demographic characteristics and comparable levels of labor force participation, but differ in terms of wage levels.     

2014年中国经济展望

从经济增速、通货膨胀、国际收支、就业看,中国经济2013年的形势是平稳的,这有利于经济结构调整、有利于经济增长方式转变。综合考虑我国未来的人口、技术、资本、制度、出口、城市化、工业化等种种因素,我国未来20年潜在的经济增速为6％;前10年为79／6,后10年为5％,较前33年有较大幅度的下降。2014年中国经济增长以稳为主,但增速可能低于2013年,甚至不排除季度增速低于7％,这是结构调整转型升级过程中必须经历的。经济适当减速,有利于化解经济危机,有利于中国经济的中长期发展。     

对中国经济运行状况的分析

从经济的投资、消费和出口数据看,中国经济增速确实在下行。为了保持中国经济8%的增速,我们已付出了很高的代价;经过35年的高速增长,在各行各业产能基本过剩的情况下,中国经济增速正在下移。观察1950年代后日本、中国台湾和香港地区经济发展的过程,其经济高速增长后,也是一个台阶又一个台阶地下来。中国不能再靠高投资来推动经济增长。     

Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data

This study examined the determinants of fertility, using panel data for 27 European countries. We employed panel co-integration to estimate fertility as function of demographic and economic variables. We showed that low fertility in most industrialized countries in Europe is due to low infant mortality rates, high female employment, low nuptiality rate, and high opportunity cost of having children. Using two measures of economic uncertainty, which are associated with labor market decisions—a production (an output) volatility measure and the unemployment rate—we examined to what extent economic insecurities affect fertility decisions. The empirical results showed that both measures of economic uncertainty have a significant negative impact on fertility implying that labor market insecurities might be a significant factor affecting fertility decisions.     

Regionalization,economic restructuring and labour migration in Singapore

This paper documents the impact of economic development on changes in employment and labour migration in Singapore.
High export-led growth and the relaxation of immigration policies in the late 1960s enabled employment of substantial numbers of unskilled foreign labour in manufacturing, construction and domestic service sectors. Unskilled foreign labour in Singapore now totals about 350,000 or 20 per cent of the labour force. It has made possible an augmentation of domestic labour supply and skills which helped Singapore to achieve higher rates of economic growth. On the negative side, the influx of foreigners has been cited as one possible cause of low productivity growth in the 1970s. In addition to the increased demand on housing, the social costs of crime and the potential economic consequence arising from strained diplomatic ties with the source countries are also areas of concern.
Economic development in the 1990s, characterized by the regionalization drive which relocates relatively resource-intensive operations of Singapore-based companies overseas, has led to increased retrenchments and a moderation of demand for foreign workers. The upgrading of remaining production operations in Singapore is expected to increase demand for workers with higher skill levels. Emigration of highly educated and skilled professionals from Singapore became a national concern in the late 1980s. However, with regionalization, the new challenge in the 1990s has become one of encouraging Singaporeans to temporarily take up overseas positions.
The future foreign labour pool in Singapore is expected to comprise a growing proportion of skilled workers to sustain the 7–8 per cent economic growth rate in the medium term. Slower economic growth in the developed economies and the internationally competitive salaries paid to professionals in Singapore are expected to continue to reduce the outflow of permanent emigrants from Singapore.     

The Malaysian state's response to migration

This paper aims to provide a profile of migration trends in Malaysia since 1970 and to analyze public policy on migration in the context of economic growth and the labor market. The discussion centers on the impact of the Asian financial crisis. There is long history of immigration to Malaysia. The development strategy of the 1970s and 1980s was to create more jobs and restructure employment to meet equity goals. Labor shortages on plantations and construction booms led to a more organized, sustained effort to import labor. Recession in the mid-1980s led to unemployment, but many Malaysians were unwilling to work on plantations, in construction, or in low paying jobs. Economic growth during 1987-96 was very high, and labor shortages spread to service and manufacturing sectors. Migration policy has shifted over the decades. Both the market and the government's promotion of export-based industrialization require access to low cost migrant labor. Public and official recognition of the large number of migrants was not made until 1995. The financial crisis in 1998 led to enforcement of a new migration policy on illegal migrants and greater outflow of migrants. The economic crisis has increased job and income inequities in the region; this encourages continued migration. It is argued that it would be best for Malaysia to maximize short-term gains while minimizing long-term economic, social, and political costs.     

The role of families in the population crisis

The population crisis in European countries can be synthesized into two phenomena: the loss of vitality and the aging society. What are the main consequences of this crisis? Can the family play a determining role in helping to face and overcoming these consequences? In this paper we suggest promoting the family as a possible means to help sustain or bring about a recovery in the demographic health of society. The first section is devoted to an analysis of the demographic decline across European countries by examining converging patterns in culturally, politically, and historically different contexts. The second section explores more deeply the interrelations between the determinants of the population crisis and living arrangements. A picture of the new shape of families across Europe precedes an analysis of the changing patterns in living arrangements and their link to reproductive functions. A final section studies the extent to which the family influences the role of women in the labor market.     

The nonprofit leadership deficit: A case for more optimism

Recent headlines claim that a looming nonprofit leadership crisis will soon be precipitated by retiring baby boomers. Analysis of baby boom demographics, using national census data on the age distribution and other demographic characteristics of top leaders by sector, confirms the aging nonprofit workforce. However, the issue of whether the aging workforce portends a nonprofit leadership crisis, when analyzed within a theoretical framework of supply and demand in the market for nonprofit executives, reveals flaws in most commentaries about the leadership crisis. Workings of the labor market and nonprofit organizations themselves suggest trends that could be expected to affect labor supply and demand and mitigate a leadership deficit. Reasonable—and likely—market and organizational adjustments, including higher executive pay, increased labor force participation of older workers, skill acquisition of younger workers, possible consolidation of nonprofit organizations, board and volunteer skill sharing, and even venture philanthropy, can be expected to moderate the shock of baby boom retirements, much in the way that schools, job markets, and housing markets have accommodated the movement of this “bulging” generation through earlier decades of their lives.     

Africa's Rising Demand for Wheat: Trends,Drivers, and Policy Implications

This article analyses trends in wheat consumption and imports in sub‐Saharan Africa since 1980, and estimates the economic and demographic determinants of this rising demand for wheat. Results point to rising incomes, growing populations, and increasing women's labour‐force participation as key drivers. Urban wheat‐expenditure shares generally exceed rural ones and SSA's demand is met largely by imports and partly through domestic production on large‐scale farms. Rising demand may therefore entail few farm–non‐farm synergies and minimal prospects to spur broad‐based economic development. The article concludes by discussing policy options for African countries to meet their staple food needs while also promoting pro‐poor agricultural growth.