Policy options when population growth slows: The case of Thailand

Thailand reached replacement-level fertility almost a decade ago, although there has been a lag in measuring and recognising the implications of this benchmark event. Fertility could well sink still lower. The momentum of population growth will ensure substantial further increase before the population levels off, but this is not true in all regions. For example, earlier and faster fertility decline in the North, and net outmigration, have led to a situation where some geographical and age segments of the North's population are decreasing. Population policy in Thailand since 1970 has had two major planks: to reduce fertility through an active family planning program, and to distribute population away from the large primate city of Bangkok. The paper discusses whether these policies may need to be modified as a result of the major demographic and socio economic changes that have been taking place. It also discusses the limits to population policy in terms of the likely efficacy of various measures that could be adopted, based on both an assessment of the Thailand situation and the experience of other low-fertility countries.     

The effect of population growth on environmental quality

This paper summarizes research on the effect of population growth on environmental quality. Land transformations induced by the spatial expansion of agriculture are probably the major route by which population growth has affected features of the natural environment. These transformations are not automatic and their extent is influenced by social institutions. Intensification of agricultural land use is an alternative response with its own set of environmental implications. These are especially salient in the case of expanded irrigation. In contrast to relations in the agricultural sector, a new version of the conventional I = PAT equation is introduced to suggest that population growth is a minor influence on the extent of industrial pollution. Nevertheless, population policy may play a useful role in strategies to reduce industrial pollution.     

The role of population in social development]

This essay deals with population growth, varieties in population density, and their impacts on social development from the viewpoint of Socialism. The author's main argument can be summarized as follows: 1) population growth is a kind of social production, and it is more important than the geographical environment in relation to social development. Regarding population growth, varieties in population density, and the geographical environment as conditions of equal importance in social life is debatable. 2) the changes in population development should not be limited to the changes in number alone. As science and technology are developed, the impact of changes of population quality on social development is becoming increasingly important. 3) population growth is not the major force which determines the social outlook and social system, and it directly influences social productivity. One should not think that a large population and rapid growth rate will speed up social productivity, or that a small population and a slow growth rate will slow down the development of social productivity. The author quotes Joseph Stalin to support his argument.     

The end of population growth in Asia

This paper presents probabilistic population projections for five regions of Asia (South Asia, Central Asia, China region, Pacific OECD and Pacific Asia) and Asia as a whole. Over this century, Asia will experience very heterogeneous demographic development: Central Asia is expected to almost double in population and South Asia will become by far the world’s most populous region, rapidly surpassing the China region. Simultaneously, the Pacific OECD countries are likely to shrink in population size and experience extreme population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in these countries (with Japan having the greatest weight) is expected to reach 50 per cent of the total population (with the 95 per cent uncertainty interval ranging from 35 to 61 per cent). The China region will experience a more rapid speed of ageing, with the proportion aged 60 and above expected to increase by a factor of four from 10 per cent in 2000 to 39 per cent in 2100.     

Ethnic intermarriage in times of social change: The case of latvia

We gain insight into the dynamics of ethnic intermarriage in times of social change by studying marriages between Latvians and Russians (including Belarussians and Ukrainians) that occurred in Latvia before and after independence from the Soviet Union. Before independence, ethnic intermarriage was already rather common, involving about 17% of the marriages annually. Since independence, intermarriage between Russians and Latvians has increased substantially. Part of this increase can be explained by selective emigration, but at least half of it may be due to integrative processes. Although there were more marriages between Russian men and Latvian women before independence, the gender pattern reversed after independence. Intermarriage levels were the highest among the less educated, children of mixed couples, partners with similar educational levels, and people in the countryside.     

Social indicators for social planning: The case of Israel

Social planning (SP) is viewed as an organizing framework for guiding government intervention in social life. Social indicators (SI) can provide the informational basis for formulating policies, preparing social plans and evaluating the impact of government activities. Both SP and SI are only two links in a desired sequence of organized social action. But given the present state of the art, the urgency of social problems and the opportunity cost of waiting for further theoretical development-initial efforts should be directed at developing SI for SP. Israel's experience is presented as an example of:

1. The ideological and operational background to specific types of intervention of the state. Within this framework the question arises whether vagueness on the subject of SP can be regarded as the cause of casual and negligent treatment of social problems by government.
2. Specific areas that have been neglected, or that have not been given adequate attention, because of the lack of SI to assist in acquiring an overall understanding of societal changes.

These examples are used as a basis for suggesting some practical possibilities of developing SI and SP in Israel and elsewhere.     

The present value of population growth in the western world

Abstract In conventional steady-state growth theory with technical progress exogenous, faster population growth causes lower consumption. This conclusion has influenced national policies. With technical progress endogenous, however, higher population growth causes higher consumption. Steady-state equilibrium analysis is not appropriate for policy decisions, though. Rather, appropriate analysis compares two or more growth rates beginning from equal initial positions, with comparison of the present value of consumption streams per person. In the paper the supply of and demand for knowledge is first analysed and the most plausible technical progress functions are derived. Various population growth rates are then simulated with different specifications and parameters. With virtually every variant, faster population growth shows better consumption with discount rates up to between five and ten per cent above the long-run adjusted riskless rate. With pensions included in the analysis, faster population growth would seem even more beneficial. Even at very high discount rates, lower population growth rates imply present values only a little higher than those for higher population growth rates. The advantage is overwhelmingly with higher population growth in this growth-theoretic analysis.     

From susceptibility to frailty in social networks: The case of obesity

The obesity pandemic is represented by a discrete-time Hopfield Boolean network embedded in continuous-time population dynamics. The influence of the social environment passes through a system of differential equations, whereby obesity spreads by imitation of the most influential neighbors, those who have the highest centrality indices in the network. This property is called “homophily.” Susceptibility and frailty are redefined using network properties. Projections of the spread of obesity are validated on data collected in a French high school.     

A survey of population in the ESCAP region

In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.     

Prospects for sustainable development: The significance of population growth

There is nothing static about the notion of optimum population. For any given country, region or the world, the optimum population, or maximum acceptable population, depends on a host of related factors: aspirations of a material kind, the state of the environment, the ability of the economy to provide food, shelter, transport, services, consumer durables and other needs. Many countries, such as the U.K., while today enjoying a reasonable standard of living, may not in fact be living within their carrying capacities. The relation between population and development is a dynamic one. Where the trends established by past and current policies are potentially unsustainable, then there is the risk that population levels may compromise the prospects of maintaining living standards and attaining environmental objectives.This paper draws on the recent world modelGlobEcco, to explore the implications of alternative population growth rates for the future of both the industrialised and developing regions of the world. The model is based on ECCO (Evolution of Capital Creation—previously Carrying Capacity—Options): a new integrative procedure which can test out strategies, technologies and rates of population growth aimed at satisfying both economic and environmental aspirations over the long term.     

Age-specific growth rates: The legacy of past population dynamics

Recent developments in population mathematics have focused attention on a function that is widely available but rarely examined: the set of age-specific growth rates in a population. In particular, this set of rates is sufficient for translating the current birth rate and age-specific mortality rates into the current age distribution. This growth-rate function contains all of the pertinent features of a population's demographic history that are required to relate major demographic functions for a particular period to one another. This article presents an expression for the age-specific growth rate and uses it to derive an equation for age distribution. We show how the value of the age-specific growth rate is determined by a population's demographic past and present various sets of growth rates corresponding to stylized demographic scenarios. Several noteworthy sets of growth rates observed in human populations are discussed. Finally, we explain why age-specific growth rates make it possible to determine the age distribution solely from information on current demographic conditions.     

论人口的聚焦效应

本文认为人口聚集有五大主要效益———分工深化效应、学习激励效应、低成本效应、高生活质量效应和文明发展效应;这些效应促进了社会经济的发展和繁荣;当我们就如何实现人口的聚集,提出几点措施;此外本文还就人口聚集有关的问题提出了自己的观点。     

Summary of the social sciences and population policy: A survey

This survey makes quite explicit the willingness of the social sciences and demography to initiate or expand teaching, research, and training on population policy. The disciplines now differ greatly in these activities. Of the 117 suggestions for research on policy, 41 are related to policy content; 16 to policy initiative and implementation; 47 to policy evaluation; and 13 to policy philosophy. The social scientists identified thirteen barriers which obstruct them from undertaking the needed research. Nine of the same barriers were named by the demographers. Barriers associated with the academic profession itself include expertise or technical competence, data limitations, ideology, professional identification, intellectual priorities, and role strains. The remaining barriers are associated with the organization of the university or the larger society rather than the academic profession.     

The education effect on population health: a reassessment

Demographic research frequently reports consistent and significant associations between formal educational attainment and a range of health risks such as smoking, drug abuse, and accidents, as well as the contraction of many diseases, and health outcomes such as mortality—almost all indicating the same conclusion: better-educated individuals are healthier and live longer. Despite the substantial reporting of a robust education effect, there is inadequate appreciation of its independent influence and role as a causal agent. To address the effect of education on health in general, three contributions are provided: 1) a macro-level summary of the dimensions of the worldwide educational revolution and a reassessment of its causal role in the health of individuals and in the demographic health transition are carried out; 2) a meta-analysis of methodologically sophisticated studies of the effect of educational attainment on all-cause mortality is conducted to establish the independence and robustness of the education effect on health; and 3) a schooling-cognition hypothesis about the influence of education as a powerful determinant of health is developed in light of new multidisciplinary cognitive research.     

The effect of illegitimacy on U.S. general fertility rates and population growth

Illegitimacy and bridal pregnancy has attracted the attention of scholars concerned with a variety of plausible causes and consequences ofbirths conceived out of wedlock. Sociologists have expressed concern with the impact of such births on maternal and child health, family stability and the economic status offamilies. Although demographers have described trends in various populations, and have occasionally suggested that births conceived out of wedlock influence general fertility rates and cohort fertility, measures of the demographic impact of illegitimate or premaritally conceived births have not been assessed. While it seems obvious that a change in births conceived out of wedlock will affect change in a general fertility rate, this finding would not automatically allow the conclusion that cohort fertility would change because a change in the rate of births conceived out of wedlock occurred.     

Pakistan's population growth: the need for action

Despite the existence of a national family planning program that dates to 1965 Pakistan has not seen a reduction in the fertility rate. One of the poorest countries in the world, Pakistan has 1 of the highest population growth rates in the world at about 3.0% annually. For over 2 decades, the average woman in Pakistan has given birth to more than 6 children. At the current fertility rate, the country's current population of 120 million will increase to over 150 million by the year 2000, and it will increase to 280 million by 2020. And even if today every woman were to begin having only 2 children, the population would still reach 160 million before leveling off. But reducing fertility in Pakistan will prove difficult. One of the leading obstacles is the low status of women. Few women in Pakistan have advanced education or professional jobs. Only 1/4 of those women without education or who are not working have any knowledge concerning contraception. Family size and composition also fuel the high rate of fertility. On the average, women desire 5 children (the fact that women average more than 5 suggests an unmet need for contraception). And due to social, cultural, and economic conditions, Pakistanis generally prefer male offsprings. Islamic opposition to family planning has also contributed to the continued high rates of fertility. Finally, administrative and management weaknesses have hindered Pakistan's family planning program. In order to overcome these obstacles, Pakistan will have to enlist the commitment of political, religious, and community leaders. The status of women will have to be improved, and the attitudes of people will need to change.     

The Hispanic population: 1990–2000 growth and change

Data sources indicate that there were significant changes in the Hispanic populationbetween 1990 and 2000. Using short-form data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses,we explore changes in the size and distribution of the Latino population. The mostimportant shifts in the Hispanic population are the continued increase of the Latinopopulation in the United States, the significant growth of Hispanic population whoidentify as `other' Latino, and the growing importance of the Midwest and South aspopular receiving areas for Latinos. Additionally, our comparison of householdcomposition over the ten-year period shows little change. We offer potentialexplanations, both substantive and methodological, for these important transitionsin the Latino population over the decade.     

The effect of illegitimacy on U.S. general fertility rates and population growth

Abstract Illegitimacy and bridal pregnancy has attracted the attention of scholars concerned with a variety of plausible causes and consequences ofbirths conceived out of wedlock. Sociologists have expressed concern with the impact of such births on maternal and child health, family stability and the economic status offamilies. Although demographers have described trends in various populations, and have occasionally suggested that births conceived out of wedlock influence general fertility rates and cohort fertility, measures of the demographic impact of illegitimate or premaritally conceived births have not been assessed. While it seems obvious that a change in births conceived out of wedlock will affect change in a general fertility rate, this finding would not automatically allow the conclusion that cohort fertility would change because a change in the rate of births conceived out of wedlock occurred.