Overcoming City Limits: Vertical and Horizontal Models of Local Redistributive Policy Making*

Objectives. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Census data show a substantial local role in providing health, housing, and public welfare services. I evaluate two models to explain local social welfare: an intergovernmental model, based on federal and state funds, and an interjurisdictional model, based on measures of local monopoly power. Methods. I estimate a panel data model of local redistributive expenditures from 1992–2002 to test between these alternative explanations for local redistribution. Results. I find that vertical arrangements tend to drive local redistributive spending. Conclusions. Intergovernmental factors drive local social welfare policy and suppress the local welfare race to the bottom.     

Federal Defense Spending and Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Disparities in Economic Growth in the Southeast*

Objective. This study examines how defense spending in the 1980s and early 1990s affected economic growth in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties in the southeast. Methods. Using county‐level Census and other government data, the study employs a spatial lag regression model to predict how defense spending interacts with manufacturing growth to affect county economic growth during the business cycles of the 1980s and early 1990s, while controlling for other measures of regional processes. I supplement the regression analysis with brief case studies of five counties in this region. Results. The analysis shows that there is a positive interaction effect between federal defense spending and manufacturing growth on measures of income and employment growth. However, the interaction effects are much stronger and more consistent in metropolitan counties. Conclusion. As predicted, defense spending created regional variations in economic growth across the metropolitan‐nonmetropolitan divide in the southeast during the business cycles of the 1980s and early 1990s. Moreover, documented economic growth in nonmetropolitan counties is partly a function of spatial integration with metropolitan counties. The results have implications for current trends in defense spending.     

How much do OECD countries spend on social protection and how redistributive are their tax/benefit systems?

The global economic crisis has reignited interest in social policy and public spending on different types of social benefits. Public social spending‐to‐GDP ratios are often used to consider the magnitude of welfare systems in international perspective, but such comparisons alone give an incomplete picture of social effort across countries. This article looks at these different factors, before briefly considering the redistributive nature of tax/benefit systems in different member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD). The article also considers trends in social spending and compares spending in the late 2000s with the early 1990s when the previous economic crisis played out. The article ends by illustrating the profound effect the recent global economic crisis had on social spending trends across OECD countries.     

Class politics in the sandbox? An analysis of the socio‐economic determinants of preferences towards public spending and parental fees for childcare

This article analyses the socio‐economic determinants of public preferences towards public spending and parental fees for childcare and how they are conditioned by institutional contexts. Previous studies of childcare policy preferences have focused on attitudes regarding the provision of care. However, when it comes to questions of financing, we know astonishingly little about how supportive individuals actually are of expanding pre‐school early childhood education and care, and how support varies across different socio‐economic groups in society. This is an important research gap because childcare provision and how it is financed have redistributive implications, which vary depending on the institutional design of childcare policy. Using novel and unique survey data on childcare preferences from eight European countries, we argue and show that preferences towards expanding childcare are more contested than it is often assumed. The institutional structure of childcare shapes how income matters for preferences towards how much should be spent and how provision should be financed. Where access to childcare is socially stratified, the poor and the rich develop different preferences towards either increasing public spending or reducing parental fees in order to improve their access to childcare. The findings in this article suggest that expanding childcare in systems characterised by unequal access can be politically contested due to diverging policy priorities of individuals from different social backgrounds.     

A Tale of Two Border Cities: Community Context,Ethnicity, and Homicide*

Objective. Using Poisson‐based negative binomial regression, we estimate the effect of neighborhood factors on homicides in two cities (San Antonio, Texas and San Diego, California) that have large Mexican‐origin populations. Methods. Three independent data sources (official homicide police reports, medical examiner records, and the U.S. Census) are used to construct the dependent homicide, and independent neighborhood, variables. Census tracts represent the unit of analysis, which serve as a proxy for neighborhoods. Given the spatial nature of the data, spatial estimation procedures were also modeled. Results. Spatial proximity to violence, neighborhood disadvantage, and affluence (in San Antonio) consistently buffered homicide across neighborhoods, even in heavily populated Latino neighborhoods. Conclusions. Spatial embeddedness and neighborhood characteristics are important for improving our understanding about ethnic neighborhood variations in levels of violence. Comparative approaches across places, namely, Latino‐dominated cities, can yield considerable insight into how the local context intersects race/ethnicity and violent crime.     

Political Threat and Immigration: Party Identification,Demographic Context,and Immigration Policy Preference*

Objective. I propose that the effect of partisanship on views on immigration is context dependent. I argue that Republicans in counties experiencing high levels of immigration are more likely to support new immigration restrictions in contrast to Democrats and Independents than Republicans in counties with a relatively small foreign‐born population, and I suspect this is the case because Republicans in high‐immigration counties feel politically threatened by the foreign‐born residents, who are more likely to support Democratic candidates. Method. To test this theory, I create hierarchical logit models of views on immigration policy in which individual party identification interacts with the size of the local immigrant population. Individual‐level data were drawn from the 2004 National Annenberg Election Survey and county‐level contextual variables from the U.S. Census Bureau. Results. I find that the effect of partisanship on individual views on immigration is context dependent; native‐born Republicans are more likely to support immigration restrictions when their local community has a large immigrant population and Democrats less likely. Conclusion. In areas where immigration levels are low, partisanship is a weak predictor of immigration views. As the foreign‐born population increases, however, the views of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents increasingly diverge.     

Gray Peril or Loyal Support? The Effects of the Elderly on Educational Expenditures*

Objectives. Do large concentrations of elderly represent a “gray peril” to maintaining adequate educational expenditures? The gray peril hypothesis is based on an assumption of instrumental self‐interest in political behavior. In contrast, we argue that loyalty to community schools competes with economic self‐interest and that older citizens are heterogeneous in their preferences. Methods. We test these arguments and their implications for public school finance using a data set of more than 9,000 school districts. Results. The data show that longstanding older residents represent a source of support for educational expenditures while elderly migrants lower spending. Further, this divide among the elderly and their impact on policy outputs depends on how states finance local public education and on aspects of state and local tax policy. Conclusions. Elderly concentrations are a financial asset for a school district unless the senior community includes a large number of new arrivals. The design of tax policy can have enormous impact on the depth of political cleavages and their ultimate impact on public policy. The results are consistent with the idea that loyalty—an emotional bond between residents and their community's institutions—competes with and often trumps instrumental self interest.     

Out with the Old,In with the Old: A Closer Look at Younger Versus Older Elderly Migration*

Objective. This research examines the migration behavior of the elderly, recognizing that the older and younger elderly may make different decisions and have different consequences for the states in which they live. Methods. Using U.S. Census migration flow data, we describe the movements of the younger and older elderly. Our econometric analysis brings together the wisdom of elderly migration research that focuses on motives (amenity vs. return/assistance) and the Tiebout‐related research that considers the effects of policy. Results. We find that all elderly age groups avoid moving to states with high estate/inheritance/gift taxes, although the effect weakens with age. Likewise, the younger elderly appear to be “shopping around” for destinations with a temperate climate and favorable government policies regarding income taxes and welfare spending, whereas the older elderly are more likely to be “driven out” of their origin state by a high cost of living and income and property taxes. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that both the patterns of migration and the factors that affect migration decisions differ between the younger and older elderly.     

The Changing Shape of Welfare Policy in Korea: Analysis of Break Point in the Welfare Budget

This paper aims to investigate the welfare policy change in South Korea. Based on punctuated equilibrium theory, I analyze kurtosis and break point of the distribution of variation in the general government welfare budget. As a result, the change in welfare budget levels in South Korea has been quite moderate. But two break points were set in 1977 and 1999. These cutoff points are related with the change of the Korean Welfare State and clearly distinguished from different times. That is, the characteristics of structure that were built during these two time periods have lasted until now. Specifically, the responsibility of state in welfare is narrow. And the feature of employment‐friendly welfare policy was formed in 1977. Also, the focus on livelihood security and employment in welfare spending was constructed in 1999. The analysis of budget is a useful tool in examining the policy change. We expect to find more specific characteristics of the Korean welfare state including special accounts and funds in future.     

Disentangling Energy Policy from Environmental Policy*

Objectives. I attempt to disentangle energy policy from environmental policy in order to explain the shifting politics surrounding the former. I can then explain why energy policies have historically provided distributive benefits but also the implications of the fact that energy proposals have in recent years become more regulatory in nature. Methods. I use a range of methods. These include qualitative accounts of the evolution of energy policy, graphic depictions of congressional activity, spending, and partisanship, and multivariate analyses of oversight activities. Results. I find that policymakers have historically treated energy issues as distributive policy, resulting in an emphasis on spending and oversight but not on substantial legislation. Over the last three decades, as policymakers push energy proposals that are more regulatory in nature, energy politics have become more divisive and partisan. Conclusion. Ultimately, I conclude that the enactment of strong energy policies will necessarily involve conditions that have been conducive to passage of other strong regulatory policies.     

Process over outcome: How perceptions of procedural fairness influence conservative support for redistributive taxes

Though majorities of Americans express support for redistributive tax policies as a cure for income inequality in the United States, this general support tends to dissipate when the public evaluates their support for specific proposals. The dominant explanations emphasize elite behavior and the disconnect between American values and political representation. An alternative view is that this counter-intuitive finding is entirely consistent with individual values. Some people place higher priority on policy processes than policy outcomes. This paper demonstrates that conservatives think about redistributive tax policy differently than liberals. Conservative support (opposition) for redistributive taxes is based on evaluations of the fairness of processes of government that lead to economic inequality. When conservatives believe that these processes are not fair, they are very supportive of wealth redistribution as a cure for economic inequality, whereas liberal support for wealth redistribution is more outcome-dependent.     

Working‐age people with disability and labour force participation: Geographic variations in Australia

To examine geographic variation in labour force participation rate (LFPR) of working‐age people with disability in Australia and associated factors. This study uses Australian Census 2016 data at Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) and engages multiple linear regression to explore the relationship between the dependent variable,= LFPR of people with disability, and diverse independent variables that reflect collective characteristics of people with disability and their non‐disabled peers within SA2. While LFPRs for people with disability varied greatly by SA2, people with disability had considerably lower LFPR than their non‐disabled peers in all areas. The LFPRs tended to be higher in SA2s with higher percentages of people with disability who had completed year 12 or gained post‐school education, with higher household income, and where a higher proportion of people with disability mainly spoke English at home. These results indicate that where people live matters. Geographic variation in LFPR for people with disability is associated with geographic variation in their educational attainment and other social and community characteristics of the areas in which they live. This study contributes towards gaining a more sophisticated and nuanced understanding of the factors that influence LFPR of people with disability in relation to their local community environment.     

Influencing factors to have an additional child by working women in Korea

This study aims to explore the effects of individual and regional characteristics on working women’s intention of additional childbirth in Korea. Since most the individuals generally revolve within their own hierarchically structured regions, data from 2012 Population and Housing Census Statistics are utilized in the analysis. The hierarchical generalized liner model is employed to find out the effects of individual and regional factors, while comparisons of these results are made using the binary logistic model. And finally, Heckman 2-stage model is applied in order to determine if selection bias is present. The results indicate that the working women ultimately deal with economic aspects on their decision for additional childbirth. Regional characteristics variables, namely unemployment rate, city type, private education cost, workplace daycare facilities and government budget for childcare, reflect economic aspects in households. These findings address important policy implications to overcome low fertility rate in the era of increasing number of working women.     

On the determinants of public infrastructure spending in Chinese cities: A spatial econometric perspective

In the context of fiscal decentralization, we use cross-sectional data of 242 Chinese cities in 2005 to explore the major factors contributing to the decline of public investment. The main finding is that a city government appears to reduce its own infrastructure spending as a response to the rise of infrastructure spending of its neighboring cities, revealing evidence of positive spillover effects of public infrastructure expenditure. This paper contributes to the existing literature by providing a new perspective for understanding the decline in public investment. In addition, this paper sheds some light on the ongoing debate on the nature of government competition in China and has important implications for policy makers in making fiscal arrangements among government tiers in a decentralized economy.     

The government spending multiplier: Evidence from county level data

The passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 has brought fiscal policy to the forefront once again. The size of the “multiplier” of government spending becomes of critical importance for determining the effect of stimulus programs. Yet there is considerable controversy about this issue. This study adds to the discussion on the size of the multiplier by using earnings data by county. This allows the creation of a panel data that includes 3141 counties for the time period 2001–2012. We estimate the federal government spending multiplier to be approximate 1.5. Our estimate for state and local spending multipliers are considerably smaller. Our results have implication for policy in that federal programs will be more effective for stabilization county economies than state or local spending.     

The political economy of changes in family and old‐age welfare policy spending: Analysis of OECD countries, 1998–2011

This study investigated whether in times of budget constraints and in countries with relatively large family policy spending, family policy has an advantage in the budget competition with old‐age expenditures, compared with countries with a lower level of family policy spending. We employed pooled time‐series cross‐sectional analysis of 24 OECD countries from 1998 to 2011. Our findings suggest that the initial level of family spending tends to moderate the crowding‐out effect of old‐age spending, indicating that the more mature a family spending policy is, the more it resists budget competition from old‐age policy. Furthermore, the size of government debt was found to have an insignificant effect on welfare budgeting. Our findings indicate that retrenchment in welfare spending for old age cannot be fully explained by budget constraints. Politics among interest groups associated with different welfare programmes can be an important determinant in explaining changes in spending on each welfare programme.     

Place‐defending and the denial of racism

This paper introduces the concept of place‐defending and articulates its implications for locality‐based social policy. Place‐defending is the protection of one's local area from unfavourable assessments, in this case of being labelled or perceived as a racist space. Place attachment and identifications with place are drivers of place‐defending. Person‐place relationships and their implications for locality‐based social policies have not yet received sufficient consideration in the literature—a significant oversight considering the current policy focus in Australia and the United Kingdom on locality‐based social policy. In this study of local anti‐racism in the Australian context, place‐defending involved the denial of racism and performances of place that reproduced the discourse of tolerance. Print media coverage of the release of national data on racism was analysed alongside a series of interviews with individuals working on anti‐racism at both local and state/federal levels. Four tools of place‐defending are discussed: direct action to defend place; spatial deflections; use of minority group members to discredit claims of racism; and critiques of those who make claims about racism. The tools of place‐defending operated to construct localities as places of tolerance, potentially undermining the case for anti‐racism.     

Inequalities in English child protection practice under austerity: A universal challenge?

The role that area deprivation, family poverty, and austerity policies play in the demand for and supply of children's services has been a contested issue in England in recent years. These relationships have begun to be explored through the concept of inequalities in child welfare, in parallel to the established fields of inequalities in education and health. This article focuses on the relationship between economic inequality and out‐of‐home care and child protection interventions. The work scales up a pilot study in the West Midlands to an all‐England sample, representative of English regions and different levels of deprivation at a local authority (LA) level. The analysis evidences a strong relationship between deprivation and intervention rates and large inequalities between ethnic categories. There is further evidence of the inverse intervention law (Bywaters et al., 2015): For any given level of neighbourhood deprivation, higher rates of child welfare interventions are found in LAs that are less deprived overall. These patterns are taking place in the context of cuts in spending on English children's services between 2010–2011 and 2014–2015 that have been greatest in more deprived LAs. Implications for policy and practice to reduce such inequalities are suggested.     

Querulous Citizens: Welfare Knowledge and the Limits to Welfare Reform

Governments face pressures to improve services and (at the same time) to contain taxes and to ensure that their decisions are accountable to increasingly well‐informed and challenging citizens. The dilemma of “squaring the welfare circle” confronts New Labour in a particularly acute form, since the party has set ambitious targets for improvements in the NHS, education and elsewhere, and is also committed to economic prudence and transparency. This article uses new data from a major national survey to investigate knowledge and beliefs in the main policy areas. It shows that most people are generally strikingly well‐informed in some areas and ill‐informed in others. A government which wishes to pursue a progressive direction in redistribution, increasing taxation of the better‐off, or expanding provision for those on low incomes, faces real difficulties because many people hold inaccurate beliefs about policy impact and the policy context in these areas. However, NHS costs are more accurately perceived across the population, and the proposed expansion is likely to create less controversy. Current high‐profile policies appear to follow the contours of public knowledge reasonably accurately, but further policy development will require positive efforts to lead debates and improve public knowledge.