THE STATE OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

This paper tests systematic responses of the Federal budget to forecasts of inflation and unemployment. Estimated coefficients from fiscal policy reaction functions are examined to determine whether there are such systematic responses. Additionally, the coefficients of these estimated fiscal policy reaction functions are used to test several hypotheses concerning fiscal policy which have been advanced in the political business cycle and public choice literatures.     

FRAMING THE SHOOTER: THE GLOBE AND THE STREETS

This article concerns the extensive news coverage by the leading Boston newspaper, the Boston Globe, given a double homicide of two African-American boys. These two boys were killed, ostensibly following a dispute with a juvenile street gang, in April 1991. By examining the shifting focus of this coverage over time, the article examines how the local understanding of street violence was framed by the Massachusetts debate over juvenile justice, in particular newly amended state legislation which tipped the scales towards treating juvenile offenders as adults. Considered here are the Globe's attempt to both orchestrate and stand for ‘civic debate’ by entertaining and absorbing rival voices in its representational protocols.     

THE POLITICS OF THE DOORSTEP

This paper considers the legacy of continuing activism of women in the North East of England who organized in support of the 1984–85 miners’ strike. It refers to the traditional responsibility of women in mining localities for the maintenance of neighbourhood and kin relations and using the example of a key activist in one ex-mining village, it argues that the values associated with ‘mining community’ remain relevant as a reference point for a self-conscious, politicized reshaping of local relationships in post-industrial conditions. The material basis for this self-conscious approach has shifted from the masculine sphere of mining work and its associated community institutions to the feminized sphere of location and neighbourhood.     

DISARMING THE OPPOSITION: THE PRESIDENT, THE PUBLIC, AND THE INF TREATY

Data from a nationwide opinion survey are used to test the propositionthat President Reagan's sponsorship of the INF treaty effectivelydisarmed the opposition that hard-liners would normally haveregistered against the treaty. The data are consistent withthis interpretation. That is, the president's endorsement ofthe treaty had only a modest impact on those who perceived theSoviets as relatively nonthreatening, but it had a much morepronounced impact on those who viewed the Soviets as threatening.These results shed new light on the extent to which and theconditions under which Americans are willing to set aside theirown policy predilections and follow along behind presidentialinitiatives in the international arena.     

THE INFORMATIZATION OF THE WORLDVIEW

The development of information and communication technology in the second half of the twentieth century in crucial respects resembles the development of mechanics in the sixteenth and seventeenth century as it has been described by Dijksterhuis in his study The Mechanization of the World Picture (first published in 1950). In both cases specific technological developments not only lead to important changes in the natural and human sciences, but also profoundly affect culture as a whole and eventually result in a fundamental change in worldview. In this article the author attempts to elucidate the present informatization of the worldview in a twofold way. First, against the background of Dijksterhuis' analysis of the concept of mechane, a clarification is given of the concept of information, which has become central to many sciences in the last decades. It is argued that much of the confusion and misuse that surrounds the application of this concept can be reduced by making a careful distinction between the pragmatic, semantic and syntactic dimensions of information. Second, on basis of this clarification, the author discusses the transformation from a mechanistic to an informationistic worldview. While the mechanistic worldview is characterized by the postulates of analysability, lawfulness and controllability, the informationistic worldview is characterized by the postulates of synthetizability, programmability and manipulability. It is argued that although the informationistic worldview in some respects (for instance in its mathematical orientation) is clearly a continuation of the mechanistic worldview, in other respects it fundamentally alters human experience and the evaluation of, and association with, reality.     

THE PROBLEM OF THE SIBLING AS THE REFERRING PERSON*

This paper is the first concerning observations gathered at our Center during studies of the treatment of families with a chronically psychotic member.' It draws the attention of family therapists to a danger not uncommon in such cases, one that arises when the person referring his family of origin is a sibling of the index patient and, in many ways, the most “competent” and prestigious family member. The theoretical part of the paper and the clinical example that follows are intended to demonstrate how this pitfall can be turned into a springboard for therapeutic success.     

THE HARDER THE TASK,THE HIGHER THE SCORE: FINDINGS OF A DIFFICULTY BIAS

Studies have found that going first or last in a sequential order contest leads to a biased outcome, commonly called order bias (or primacy and recency). Studies have also found that judges have a tendency to reward contestants they recognize with additional points, called reference bias. Controlling for known biases, we test for a new type of bias we refer to as “difficulty bias,” which reveals that athletes attempting more difficult routines receive higher execution scores, even when difficulty and execution are judged separately. Despite some identification challenges, we add to the literature by finding strong evidence of a difficulty bias in gymnastics. We also provide generalizations beyond athletics. (JEL L10, L83, D81, J70, Z1)     

THE SUCCESS OF THE FED AND THE DEATH OF MONETARISM

We propose an explanation for the demise of monetarism in the United States. We show that optimal monetary policy would lead to zero correlation between monetary aggregates and inflation if the effect of monetary aggregates on inflation is known precisely and to negative correlations if there is coefficient uncertainty. From 1960 to 1982 the correlation of the monetary base and inflation was positive and so the variance in the growth rate of monetary base in the United States was clearly too large monetary base growth destabilized inflation. However, from 1983 to 2003 variations in monetary base growth were clearly stabilizing and could have been just right. ( JEL E52, E31, E32)     

THE STATE OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY: FURTHER EVIDENCE

Simultaneous monetary and fiscal policy reaction functions are derived and estimated for the 1969:2–1984.3 period. The results suggest that the Reagan administration has abandoned fiscal policy as a stabilization tool. Furthermore, although the average money growth rate declined in the Reagan administration, variation in the rate of money growth indicates that monetary policy has been used to combat unemployment. Finally, monetary and fiscal policies were not coordinated during this period. Rather, monetary and fiscal policy appear to be set by a Nash equilibrium in a non-cooperative game. In a Nash equilibrium, the policy chosen by each authority maximizes its payoff, given the policy choice of the other authority.     

THE SPIRIT OF THE PEOPLE

This article examines the construction of ‘People’ in current and historical interpretation of the Constitution of the United States. It argues that ‘People’ is a powerful rhetorical figure constructed to sustain a narrative that transcends the realities of hard-won social change gained by living groups of people in US history. Opposing the common professional and popular conception of the US Constitution as the oldest continually functioning constitutional document, this paper posits that there have been many US Constitutions. With particular focus on the constitutional sanction of slavery and subsequent abolition amendments, as well as looking at Supreme Court cases concerning segregation and civil rights, it is argued that the Constitution does not represent a continuity, but a series of radically new documents. The Constitution(s) of the United States must, like any other text, be read and interpreted to have meaning; that is, the Constitution(s) do not have inherent, obvious meaning equally and readily available over generations. The contrary is made to seem the case by those interpreters who perpetuate an historical narrative of liberty and ‘People’ regardless of the contradictions, exclusions and hypocrisies of reality. The fights for inclusion are obscured by the sustained appearance of a history of gradual but inevitable absorption into an ahistorical ideal. Further hidden is the possibility that the perceived ideal might itself be culturally and historically contingent. The maintenance of the view that constitutional language can have consistent, available meaning over centuries is not a neutral endeavour. It is used to justify the actions of existing American power as inseparable from an irreproachable, historically legitimated ownership of democratic social values and aims. This takes on a broader significance when considered in the light of current, aggressive exportation of ideas of ‘People,’ ‘democracy,’ ‘liberty’ and so on, as if they had self-evident and transferable meanings.     

LIFTING THE SPIRITS OF THE NATION: BRITISH BOXERS AND THE EMERGENCE OF THE NATIONAL SPORTING HERO AT THE TIME OF THE NAPOLEONIC WARS

In September 2003 a leading British broadsheet Sunday newspaper ran a leader headed “This Sporting Life” and “Cheers for two heroes of our time,” in which it acknowledged the ability of two current, young sporting heroes to “inspire hope” and “to lift the spirits of the nation.” Nearly 200 years ago, Tom Cribb, a pugilist, was similarly described as a “hero” and his exploits were described as having “national” significance after he had defeated a black pugilist from the United States. This essay uses contemporary sources to examine the life of Tom Cribb and the public response to him, and asks whether he was the first British national sporting hero and what characteristics he may share with modern sporting heroes. The National Sporting Hero (NSH) does not necessarily come from the same ethnic group that makes him a hero, but once acquired, the status is likely to last well beyond the normal sporting career and may last for life. A NSH will have had success against a formidable opponent and provoked feelings in the general public that develop from interest to admiration, pride, gratitude, and eventually affection and will also garner public recognition beyond those who normally follow sport and a willingness of the public to overlook personal flaws. This supports Richard Holt's view that unlike heroes from other spheres whose genius makes them appear “special creatures,” sporting heroes are seen to be “more like us.” Perhaps they give us hope and lift our spirits because we see in them ourselves, not perhaps as we are, but as we would like to be.     

THE SOCIOLOGY OF THE FLUORIDATION CONTROVERSY

Previous studies have explained opposition to fluoridation in terms of misinformation, alienation, or confusion. These studies have several shortcomings stemming from an uncritical attitude toward scientific knowledge. Recent perspectives in the sociology of scientific knowledge provide the basis for developing a wider understanding of the fluoridation issue, including analysis of scientific disagreements, the promotion of fluoridation, and experiences in other countries. Contrary to the usual view, public opposition to fluoridation does not necessarily signify a failure of education or democracy.     

THE POPULAR IN THE POLITICAL SYSTEM

This paper suggests a systems theoretical re-reading of popular communication and the Popular in the political system. Luhmann' anti-humanist notion of communication helps to reframe the discussion of the Popular: it is not defined by an en- or decoding instance, but by a particular mode of ‘connectivity'. Drawing from heterogeneous material (Mars Attacks!, crowd psychology, theory of democracy), it is argued that the problem of the Popular arises when a functional system has to represent something that transgresses the system' universality. That which the system has to exclude to become a system re-emerges as ‘grotesque hybrid’, thus pointing at a universality that is, on the one hand, an opportunity for a further universalization and, on the other, a threat to the very universality of the system. The ‘Popular’ thus acquires a hybrid position by articulating these two dimensions.     

SCHOUTEN IN THE DARK: MISSING THE FOREST AND THE TREES

The present article is a response to a paper by Schouten in the January, 1994 issue of the Journal of Marital and Family Therapy entitled, "A Scale in Search of a Construct: Comments on Gavin and Wamboldt" (Schouten, 1994) in which he comments on our 1992 paper entitled "A Reconsideration of the Family-of-Origin Scale" (Gavin & Wamboldt, 1992). We respond to Schouten's allegations of lack of methodological rigor and "unsubstantiated claims" (Schouten, 1994, p. 59). We systematically address ways in which Schouten has taken our work out of context, missed the essence of our study, and used faulty and/or vacuous logic in an attempt to discredit our findings. Despite the appearance of rigor in Schouten's work, closer scrutiny brings into question the contribution of Schouten's article to the field of family theory or measurement.     

THE CHARITY OF THE EXTREMELY WEALTHY

In this article, we show that, compared to billionaires who have inherited their wealth, billionaires who have made their own wealth are more likely to sign the Giving Pledge and more likely to be in the Million Dollar Gifts list or the Philanthropy Top 50 list of big givers. If they give, self‐made billionaires also tend to donate more money. We explore several possible explanations for this correlation between the origin of billionaires' wealth and their charitable giving, and present evidence that suggests that self‐made billionaires tend to spend more money, both by giving money away and by buying expensive items. (JEL D03, H40)     

THE DURATION OF THE SMOKING HABIT

I investigate the determinants of the hazard rates of both starting and quitting the cigarette smoking habit. The model is an ordered probit split-sample duration model with lagged duration dependence and time-varying covariates (cigarette price and regulation). Duration of the smoking habit is approximately unitary elastic with respect to cigarette price. The hazard rate of starting smoking peaks sharply and quickly declines before age 20. Both nonparametric and parametric results indicate that the quitting hazard rate rises with the habit's duration, a result at odds with survey data but consistent with the economic model of rational addiction. (JEL C41, 112)     

THE RETURN OF THE FIFTIES?

Thirty-one items on six identical surveys of University of Michigan undergraduate men between 1952 to 1989 help assess if there has been a "return of the fifties." Several elements of the fifties have returned—privatism, concern about loyalty and subversion, and conservatism in some personal morals. Other elements have not—the 1952 levels of other-direction, traditional religious commitment, and trust in human nature. The 1980s had a unique combination of political conservatism and personal individualism.