The retirement system in transition: the 2007 Retirement Confidence Survey

WORKERS SLOW TO SEE OR ADAPT TO A CHANGING U.S. RETIREMENT SYSTEM: The 17th annual wave of the Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS) suggests that American workers may be slow to recognize how the U.S. retirement system is changing, and those who are aware of these changes may not be adapting to them in ways that are likely to secure them a comfortable retirement. HALF OF WORKERS LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT PENSION BENEFITS: The RCS finds pension-plan changes by employers have left nearly half of workers less confident about the benefits they will receive from a traditional pension plan, but that those experiencing a decline in retirement benefits often fail to react constructively. Moreover, although Americans will rely increasingly on 401(k) retirement savings plans and other personal savings and investments to fund their retirement security, data suggest that many may not follow professional investment advice when it is offered to them. MANY WORKERS COUNTING ON BENEFITS THAT WON'T BE THERE: Many workers are counting on employer-provided benefits in retirement that are increasingly unavailable. Only 41 percent of workers indicate they or their spouse currently have a defined benefit pension plan, yet 62 percent say they are expecting to receive income from such a plan in retirement. Likewise, workers are as likely to expect as retirees are to receive retiree health insurance through an employer, even though the number of employers offering this benefit to future retirees is declining. MANY WORKERS UNLIKELY TO HEED INVESTMENT ADVICE EVEN IF THEY GET IT: More than half of workers indicate they would be likely to take advantage of professional investment advice offered by companies that manage employer-sponsored retirement plans. However, two-thirds of these workers say they would probably implement only some of the recommendations they receive and 1 in 10 think they would implement none of them. AMERICANS OVERESTIMATE LONG-TERM CARE COVERAGE: One-quarter of workers and more than one-third of retirees report they have long-term care insurance (separate from health insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid) to help pay for care they might need in a nursing home, assisted living facility, or at home. But only 10 percent of Americans age 65 and older are estimated to have had private long-term care insurance in 2002, suggesting that many are counting on coverage they do not actually have. MOST SAVINGS LEVELS ARE MODEST: Almost half of workers saving for retirement report total savings and investments (not including the value of their primary residence or any defined benefit plans) of less than $25,000. The majority of workers who have not put money aside for retirement have little in savings at all: Seven in 10 of these workers say their assets total less than $10,000. CONTINUED IGNORANCE ABOUT SOCIAL SECURITY COVERAGE: Despite the longstanding increase in the eligibility age for Social Security, only a small minority of workers are aware of the age at which they can receive full retirement benefits from Social Security without a reduction for early retirement.     

Employee benefits, retirement patterns, and implications for increased work life

This Issue Brief examines why policymakers are concerned about the trend toward early retirement and how it relates to Social Security, Medicare, and employee health and retirement benefits. It reviews the rationale for the effects of economic incentives on early retirement decisions and includes a summary of empirical literature on the retirement process. It presents data on how employee benefits influence workers' expected retirement patterns. Finally, it examines the implications of public policies to reverse early-retirement trends and raise the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare. An employee Benefit Research Institute/Gallup survey indicates that there is a direct link between a worker's decision to retire early and the availability of retiree health benefits. In 1993, 61 percent of workers reported that they would not retire before becoming eligible for Medicare if their employer did not provide retiree health benefits. Participation in a pension plan can be an important determinant of retirement. Twenty-one percent of pension plan participants planned to stop working before age 65, compared with 12 percent among nonparticipants. Workers whose primary pension plan was a defined benefit plan were more likely to expect to stop working before age 65 (23 percent) than workers whose primary plan was a defined contribution plan (18 percent). Expected income replacement rates effect retirement patterns, indicating that as the expected replacement increases, the probability of expecting to stop working before age 65 increases. Twenty-two percent of workers with an expected income replacement rate below 60 percent expected to stop working before age 65, compared with 29 percent for those in the 60-69 percent replacement range, and 30 percent for those in the 70-79 percent replacement range. Workers expecting to receive retiree health insurance are more likely to expect to stop working before age 65 than workers who do not expect to have retiree health insurance. Twenty-one percent of workers with retiree health insurance expected to stop working before age 65, compared with 12 percent of workers not expecting to receive retiree health insurance. The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program depends on obtaining sufficient revenue from active workers' payroll taxes to fund the benefits received by retired beneficiaries. Funding the program in the past was in large part effortless because of the relatively large number of workers per retiree. Today, funding the program is a greater challenge because the ratio of workers to retirees has fallen. Policymakers have been able to agree that reform of the program is necessary for its survival; however, the debate over options to reform the program is just beginning, and it is likely to be a long time before a consensus emerges.     

Baby boomers in retirement: what are their prospects?

This Issue Brief examines the baby boomers' retirement income prospects by analyzing trends in the elderly's income and pension participation among workers; examining saving behavior and critically evaluating studies of the adequacy of the boomers' saving; and looking at tenure trends, lump-sum distribution preservation, and changes in Social Security benefits. Since the mid 1970s, the real median income of individuals aged 65 and over has increased 18 percent. Sources of income have shifted, with employment-based pensions increasing and earnings and asset income decreasing as a proportion of income. The boomers' prospects are partly dependent on participation in employment-based retirement plans. After decreases in the sponsorship rates, participation rates, and vesting rates of workers during the 1980s, all three percentages increased during the early 1990s. Data do not support the perception that the U.S. work force is becoming increasingly mobile. Tenure levels for prime age workers in the 1980s and beginning of the 1990s were higher than those of previous decades. Still, in response to competitive pressures, employers may not offer the security of paternalistic benefit packages as in the past. Various studies have reached different conclusions regarding the adequacy of the boomers' financial preparation for retirement. Evidence indicates that boomers, in general, will enjoy a retirement standard of living exceeding that of their parents. It is less clear whether they will maintain a standard of living in retirement comparable to that of their working years. To the extent they are willing to tap housing wealth, they would appear at this early stage to be in good shape. Federal fiscal policy decisions will impact boomers by affecting their disposable income today, and thus their ability to save, as well as the benefits they will receive in retirement through Social Security and Medicare. The boomers are 17 to 35 years away from age 65. Given heterogeneity of the boomers, research is needed to identify what specific groups within the generation are at risk and the magnitude of that risk. Groups that would now appear to be at risk to some degree include non-homeowners, the less educated, the single, and the youngest boomers.     

Retirement Confidence Survey 2000 including results from the RCS Minority Survey and the Small Employer Retirement Survey

The year 2000 represents the 10th anniversary of the Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS), and the third year for the Minority RCS and Small Employer Retirement Survey (SERS). Key RCS findings over the past 10 years include: The fraction of workers saving for retirement has trended upward, and today 80 percent of households report that they have begun to save. The fraction of workers who have attempted to calculate how much they need to save for retirement has risen noticeably over the past several years. Today, 56 percent of households report that they have attempted the calculation. One-half of workers who have attempted such a calculation report that it has changed their behavior, such as saving more and/or changing where they invest their retirement savings. Workers who have done the calculation appear to be in better shape regarding their retirement finances. Worker confidence in the ability of Social Security to maintain benefit levels bottomed out in 1994 and 1995. Workers today are just as confident as they were in 1992, although the majority remain not confident in Social Security. Regarding overall retirement confidence, Hispanic-Americans tend to be the least confident among the surveyed minority groups that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout their retirement years. Key SERS findings include: While cost and administrative issues do matter to small employers, they are not the primary reasons for low plan sponsorship rates. Employee-related reasons are most often cited as the most important factor for not offering a retirement plan. Business-related reasons, such as profitability, are also a main decision-driver. It is important to note what small employers without plans do not know about plan sponsorship. Small employers that do sponsor a retirement plan report that offering a plan has a positive impact on both their ability to attract and retain quality employees and the attitude and performance of their employees. The survey results indicate that many small company nonsponsors may not be aware of such potential business benefits from plan sponsorship. In addition, many nonsponsors are unaware of the plan options available to them, in particular the ones created specifically for small employers, such as SIMPLE and SEP retirement plans. Therefore, some small employers may be making a premature decision not to sponsor a plan based on incomplete information.     

Restrictiveness of Eligibility Determination and Medicaid Enrollment by Low-Income Seniors

Medicaid is an important source of supplemental health care coverage for low-income seniors, yet little is known about the effect of state policy on Medicaid enrollment by eligible elderly. Data from a nationally representative survey were used to examine Medicaid enrollment by elderly, low-income Medicare beneficiaries living in states that liberalize or restrict Medicaid eligibility criteria using the 1986 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act or provision 209(b) of the 1972 Social Security Act Amendment, respectively. Controlling for demographics and health status, residence in states applying these laws was significantly, though modestly, associated with Medicaid enrollment. Additionally, 73% of eligible elderly Medicare beneficiaries were not enrolled in Medicaid, and most have serious chronic health problems. These findings suggest that a significant number of eligible elderly are not enrolled in Medicaid and that liberalizing or tightening Medicaid eligibility criteria can have an impact on Medicaid enrollment by low-income elderly patients.     

CONFLICTING VIEWS ON THE EFFECT OF OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE ON RETIREMENT

The literature explaining the sharp drop in labor force participation of the elderly in recent decades is examined. Several recent studies made by economists outside the Social Security Administration have found the impact of OASI to be much more important than was found by surveys made within the social security system. An examination of census and manpower data lends support to the view that OASI has had an important role in encouraging retirement at earlier ages. The drop in labor force participation among the elderly has impeded government efforts to improve the economic condition of elderly persons.     

The 1999 Small Employer Retirement Survey: building a better mousetrap is not enough

As of 1995, there were 5.3 million small-employer firms (100 or fewer employees) in the United States. These small firms employed 38.0 million individuals, representing 38 percent of all employment. Therefore, low retirement plan coverage among small employers directly affects a sizeable fraction of the national work force. There are a number of reasons why more small employers do not offer retirement plans. Cost and administration-related issues do matter, but for many small employers these take a back seat to other issues. For some, the main driver is the financial reality of running a small business: Their revenue is too uncertain to commit to a plan. For others, the most important reasons for not sponsoring a plan are employee-related, e.g., the workers do not consider retirement savings to be a priority, or the employer's work force has such high turnover that it does not make sense to sponsor a plan. Many nonsponsors are unfamiliar with the different retirement plan types available to them as potential plan sponsors, especially the options created specifically for small employers. For example, most nonsponsors said they have never heard of (36 percent) or are not too familiar with (20 percent) SIMPLE plans for small businesses. Fifteen percent of small employers report that they are very likely to start a plan in the next two years, while 24 percent say this is somewhat likely. Nonsponsors report that the two items most likely to lead to serious consideration of sponsoring a plan are an increase in profits (69 percent) and business tax credits for starting a retirement plan (67 percent). Major drivers of low retirement plan sponsorship among small employers are who they employ and the uncertainty of revenue flows. While issues of administrative cost and burden matter, they are only part of the puzzle. Therefore, the solution is not simply "build it and they will come," by creating simpler and simpler retirement plans geared to small businesses. Rather, it is build it and they will come once the business reaches a certain level of profitability and stability, and once retirement planning and saving are more of a priority for the small employer's workers.     

Medicare on life support: will it survive?

This Issue Brief discusses Medicare reform. The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 reduces spending in the Medicare program by $115 billion between 1998 and 2002. Most of the reduction in spending comes from reducing payments to providers, and most of the savings (36 percent) occur in 2002. By 2007, the Part A trust fund is expected to be insolvent, four years before the baby-boom generation reaches the current Medicare eligibility age of 65. Congress is likely to revisit Medicare reform in the near future. A number of reforms received a significant amount of attention during the Medicare reform debate, but were not included in the final legislation. The Senate-passed legislation would have increased the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67, imposed means testing on Medicare Part B, and imposed a Part B home health copayment of $5. While these provisions were not included in the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, they may be the focal point of future Medicare reform. Many changes to the Medicare program are likely to significantly affect employment-based health plans for both active and retired workers. Raising the Medicare eligibility age would undoubtedly affect both workers and retirees. Unless workers are willing to work until age 67, their likelihood of becoming uninsured would increase. In 1995, 15.8 percent of retirees ages 55-64 were uninsured, compared with 11.5 percent of workers in the same age group. Early retirees might also find themselves unable to afford health insurance in the private market. An Employee Benefit Research Institute/Gallup poll indicates a direct link between the availability of retiree health benefits and a worker's decision to retire early. In 1993, 61 percent of workers reported that they would not retire before becoming eligible for Medicare if their employer did not provide retiree health benefits. If workers responded to an increase in the retirement age by working longer, employment-based health plans would probably experience an increase in costs, because older workers are the most costly to cover. Some employers might respond to an increase in the Medicare eligibility age by dropping coverage altogether. The message for future beneficiaries is becoming very clear: expect less from Medicare at later ages and higher premiums. As was true prior to the enactment of Medicare in 1965, workers will increasingly need to include retiree health insurance as an expected expense as they plan and save for retirement.     

The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey: job insecurity, debt weigh on retirement confidence, savings

Americans' confidence in their ability to retire comfortably is stagnant at historically low levels. Just 14 percent are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement (statistically equivalent to the low of 13 percent measured in 2011 and 2009). Employment insecurity looms large: Forty-two percent identify job uncertainty as the most pressing financial issue facing most Americans today. Worker confidence about having enough money to pay for medical expenses and long-term care expenses in retirement remains well below their confidence levels for paying basic expenses. Many workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. In total, 60 percent of workers report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000. Twenty-five percent of workers in the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. In 1991, 11 percent of workers said they expected to retire after age 65, and by 2012 that has grown to 37 percent. Regardless of those retirement age expectations, and consistent with prior RCS findings, half of current retirees surveyed say they left the work force unexpectedly due to health problems, disability, or changes at their employer, such as downsizing or closure. Those already in retirement tend to express higher levels of confidence than current workers about several key financial aspects of retirement. Retirees report they are significantly more reliant on Social Security as a major source of their retirement income than current workers expect to be. Although 56 percent of workers expect to receive benefits from a defined benefit plan in retirement, only 33 percent report that they and/or their spouse currently have such a benefit with a current or previous employer. More than half of workers (56 percent) report they and/or their spouse have not tried to calculate how much money they will need to have saved by the time they retire so that they can live comfortably in retirement. Only a minority of workers and retirees feel very comfortable using online technologies to perform various tasks related to financial management. Relatively few use mobile devices such as a smart phone or tablet to manage their finances, and just 10 percent say they are comfortable obtaining advice from financial professionals online.     

Encouraging workers to save: the 2005 Retirement Confidence Survey

This Issue Brief reports findings of the 15th annual Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS), which points to potential solutions to the American retirement savings problem, specifically ways that could help workers save more through their employment-based retirement plans. IMPORTANCE OF EMPLOYER MATCH: More than 7 in 10 workers not currently contributing to their employer-sponsored retirement plan say an employer contribution of up to 5 percent of their salary would make them much more or somewhat more likely to participate (72 percent). SIMPLIFIED OPTIONS: Other retirement plan options that nonparticipants say would make them more likely to contribute are an investment option that automatically becomes more conservative as their retirement date approaches (66 percent) and a feature that automatically raises workers' contributions by a fixed amount or percentage when they receive a pay raise (55 percent). Two-thirds of nonparticipants indicate they would be very or somewhat likely to remain in their employer's plan if they were automatically enrolled (66 percent). SOCIAL SECURITY: Nearly 7 in 10 of today's workers are skeptical that Social Security will continue to provide benefits of at least equal value to those received by current retirees (68 percent). This proportion has remained relatively constant in recent years, but is below the 1995 level (79 percent). Workers continue to be unable to identify the age at which they will be eligible for full Social Security benefits. MOST BEHIND SCHEDULE IN SAVING: A majority of workers believe they are behind schedule when it comes to planning and saving for retirement (55 percent). Most of those behind schedule say that high expenses, particularly everyday expenses (49 percent), child-rearing expenses (39 percent), and medical costs (35 percent), are a major factor in keeping them from saving. LESS THAN HALF HAVE TRIED TO CALCULATE NEEDED SAVINGS: Approximately 4 in 10 workers say they have tried to calculate how much they need to accumulate for retirement. More than one-third of these workers say they asked a financial advisor to calculate this number or used their own estimates; 10 percent say they simply guessed how much they will need in retirement.     

The ongoing growth of defined contribution and individual account plans: issues and implications

This Issue Brief discusses the implications of the growth of defined contribution (DC) retirement plans and individual account plans and the subsequent impact on employers, employees, and retirement planning. It also presents a look at data regarding contributions to retirement plans, employer trends regarding retirement plans, and the potential impact of changes to the federal Social Security retirement system. The findings and data in this article are drawn from material presented at a policy forum sponsored by the Employee Benefit Research Institute Education and Research Fund (EBRI-ERF) Dec. 7, 2001, in Washington, DC. Today, prospective retirees need to be able to generate about 75 percent of their current income to maintain their standard of living in retirement, up from 63 percent of their income in 1997, according to the Replacement Ratio Study, by Aon Corporation and Georgia State University. However, the most recent data show a decline in the percentage of income that average employees are saving. While it is too early to quantify, it does not appear that the retirement provisions in the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA) are strongly influencing the movement to DC plans. However, employers appear very interested in the provisions of the new law with regard to both defined benefit (DB) retirement plans and DC plans. The number of large employers offering DB plans continues to decline, from 85 percent in 1990 to 73 percent in 2000, according to the Hewitt study. Although employers may have little influence over some factors that affect participation rates in voluntary retirement plans, they have various options to increase participation rates, such as "matching" employee contributions, offering loan features, and providing education to employees about the plans.     

Recent developments in the employment and retirement of older workers in Germany

Against a background of an aging population, rising social security costs, and foreseeable labor and skill shortages, there have been public policy changes affecting older workers in Germany. Labor-market related initiatives aim at an increase of labor force participation among this group. Enterprise-related, active age-management strategies aim at improving occupational conditions of aging workers. In this context, prolonging the working life must be seen as one option of "active aging." Another view of the current retirement discussion is the question of how the unused potential of Germany's younger, early-retired seniors can be exploited. Active aging has become a social duty nowadays, with the intention that older persons contribute to society to avoid generational conflicts. In the future, active aging will preserve the competitiveness of enterprises and of the entire economy, despite an aging labor force. But gerontological research points out that different options to carry out individual life plans of active aging are also required. This article reviews the changes in public policies towards older workers and includes the findings of a project that illustrates good practice to combat age barriers in the labor world.     

Economic Trends,Politics, and Employment Policy for Older Workers

The rising interest among policymakers in developing employment policies for older persons can be traced to several sources. Two of these-concerns about the financing of retirement benefits and fears about possible future labor shortages-are shaping employment policies in ways that have undesirable consequences for older workers who are in poor health and who lack the economic resources to be able to afford retirement. In contrast, employment policies that operate by providing work incentives, rather than retirement disincentives, do not have discriminatory impacts on these subgroups of the older population.     

The evolution of retirement: results of the 1999 Retirement Confidence Survey

The ninth annual Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS) shows continued evidence of progress in the drive for retirement income security for American workers. However, there are still hurdles to overcome. The RCS tracks Americans' retirement planning and saving behavior and their confidence regarding various aspects of their retirement. It also categorizes workers and retirees into distinct groups based on their individual views on retirement, retirement planning, and saving. The retirement envisioned by today's workers looks different in many respects from that now experienced by current retirees. Today's workers expect to work longer than current retirees actually worked before retiring--and many say they plan to work for pay after they retire. Twenty-four percent of workers reported that they are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement, and 45 percent reported that they are somewhat confident. However, there are indications that many may be falsely confident. The good news is that 70 percent of Americans are saving for retirement, and a growing percentage (49 percent) are going further and determining how much they need to save to fund their retirement. The bad news is that 30 percent of Americans have not begun to save for their retirement, and 51 percent have never tried to determine how much they need to save. Employers play a major role in ensuring adequate retirement preparation. Forty percent of all workers said they expect that money provided by their employer will be a major source of retirement income. Forty-six percent expect the money they put into a retirement plan at work to be a major source of income. The availability of a retirement plan at work is credited by 48 percent of savers as motivation to save. While worker education is a point of emphasis among both employers and policymakers, more remains to be done. For example, 59 percent of workers expect to be eligible for full Social Security benefits sooner than they actually will be, and an additional 19 percent admit they do not know when they will be eligible. There is evidence that education can have an impact on individual behavior. Forty percent of workers receiving educational material at work in the last year said that information caused them to begin saving (19 percent) or resume saving (21 percent) for retirement, while 40 percent said they changed the amount they were contributing to a retirement savings plan and 41 percent changed the allocation of their money in a retirement savings plan.     

Low Confidence in Social Security Is Not Warranted

The public's low confidence in Social Security is unwarranted. Social Security as discussed here means the old-age, survivors, and disability insurance program (OASDI) but does not include Medicare. Its financial condition is excellent in the short range and sound in the long range, based on intermediate-cost estimates. Those who believe otherwise are too pessimistic about our demographic and economic future. The OASDI cost rates are expected to remain at today's level for the next three decades, and will rise starting about 2020. The cost rates are expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll. Because the taxable payroll as a proportion to total compensation is projected to decline, the cost rates in the future will rise even when benefit payments do not. This problem could be solved by a method that effectively taxes total compensation at a constant percentage rate. Another reason for cost rates to rise is population aging. It is possible to reduce the cost rates if educational and work environments are made more hospitable to long worklives. Although population aging is a basic reason for OASDI costs to increase, only about two thirds of such costs are for retirement benefits. The rest is for disabled workers and families of workers.     

WORKERS SHOULD WANT TO PAY MORE FOR SOCIAL SECURITY

One controversial aspect of the current Social Security system has been the relative distribution of its net costs and benefits between employers and workers. Using simple supply and demand analysis, we demonstrate that proponents and opponents of the current system are making arguments that support the position of their adversaries. In particular, proponents of the existing Social Security system should be arguing that workers pay all of the Social Security tax and then some with lower wages, while opponents should be arguing that employers are paying most of the tax. (JEL H55 , D78 )     

Structural changes in the receiving country and future labor migration--the case of Kuwait

This article describes changes in the volume, age and sex composition, retention, productivity, types of occupation, and economic sector of the labor force in Kuwait. The focus is on the structural changes in the indigenous labor force. Data were obtained from censuses and labor force surveys during 1965-93. Policies after the 1990 invasion pertained primarily to security of public employment sector among natives. Over 98% of private sector employment is among non-Kuwaitis. Government programs support high fertility. Female illiteracy has declined, and the proportion of women with a higher education has increased. Natives comprised 20.4% of the total labor force in 1993. About 90% of native males work in the public sector. 45% of total male employment is in the production sector. Around 50% of non-Kuwaiti males have been employed in production work over the decades. Over 90% of Kuwaiti females in 1993 worked in professional or clerical work. Over 50% of total female labor force participation is in the service sector. Concentration in the public sector increased for Kuwaitis and declined for non-Kuwaitis. Labor force participation declined with increasing age. Retirement benefits encouraged early retirement. The private sector is experiencing the departure of long-term migrants and more rapid turnover of labor. Hours of work are longer in the private sector. Kuwait is still dependent on foreign workers in the production and service industries. It is likely that native male workers will replace foreign workers in professional work and administrative/clerical work. Policies that will assure future reliance on imported labor include the assurance of government jobs for Kuwaitis, retirement rules, and the profitability of the trade in labor.     

Labor Shortages and U.S. Immigration Reform: Promises and Perils of an Independent Commission

Comprehensive U.S. immigration reform proposals have three major elements: improved border and workplace controls, dealing with the 11 million unauthorized foreigners in the U.S., and managing “future flows” of foreign workers requested by U.S. employers. Improved controls and dealing with unauthorized foreigners were discussed extensively in the U.S. Senate in 2006 and 2007. Future flows were not. This article reviews the decisions governments face when employers request migrant workers, Britain’s independent Migration Advisory Committee, and the promises and perils of a similar U.S. commission to manage labor migration. We conclude that a U.S. commission could help to clarify the trade‐offs involved in migrant labor policy, but cannot replace the need for inherently political choices between competing policy objectives.