生命历程刍议

生命历程已经成为国际社会科学,尤其是人口研究的一个重要范式,但中文学界对其了解仍存不足。在研究中采用生命历程视角,必须首先了解它的知识传统、关键概念与研究手段。通过对知识传承的分析,我们发现,生命历程研究受惠于生命跨度理路、社会关系、生命周期与地位获取视角以及年龄与历时性研究;它以累积和转折点为两个关键概念;主要研究手段包括追溯性生命历史研究和前瞻性生命历史研究。     

Mortality in Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia: Divergence in Recent Trends and Possible Explanations

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia were quite comparable in terms of their socioeconomic development. Despite some differences in overall mortality levels, the three former Soviet republics were also very close to each other in terms of directions of mortality trends and age- and cause-specific mortality patterns. After 1991, all the three countries experienced substantial political and social transformations, and the challenges associated with the transition from a socialist to a market economy system. The sudden changes brought numerous problems, such as rapid growth in unemployment, falling standards of living, and growing social and income inequalities. These factors contributed to the significant deterioration of the health situation in all the countries, but the size and the nature of the mortality crisis was different in Belarus than it was in Lithuania and Russia. The marked similarities in socioeconomic and mortality trends in the countries up to 1991 contrast with their notable divergence during the subsequent years. The nature and success of market reforms seems to be the most plausible explanation for these differences. Russia and Lithuania have chosen more radical forms of economic and political transformations, which have led to massive privatization campaigns. The reforms were more sustainable and systematic in Lithuania than in Russia. By contrast, Belarus has chosen a gradual and slow transition path. Recent mortality trends in Belarus are explored in detail here, and are contrasted with those observed in Lithuania and Russia. Including a cause-of-death analysis sheds more light on the plausible determinants of the variations in mortality levels between the countries.     

Between ‘Pioneers’ of the Cardiovascular Revolution and Its ‘Late Followers’: Mortality Changes in the Czech Republic and Poland Since 1968

After several decades of stagnation, mortality in most Central European countries started to decrease after 1989. The Czech Republic and Poland were the first former Communist countries in this region to experience a rapid and sustained increase in life expectancy. This study focuses on the trends in cause-of-death mortality that have contributed to the recent progress in these two countries. The analysis is based on the cause-of-death time series (1968–2013) reconstructed in accordance with the 10th ICD revision, which makes the data fully comparable over the full period under study. Actual trends in cause-specific mortality are presented, and age, sex and causes of death components of life expectancy changes are disentangled. In both countries, the reduction in cardiovascular mortality at adult and old ages was crucial for the increase in life expectancy after 1991. Results are discussed in the context of institutional changes that occurred after the fall of Communism, such as the reorientation of health policies and the emergence of non-governmental organizations. Changes in health-related attitudes and behaviours as well as structural changes in societies, notably the rising share of persons with tertiary education, are also discussed.     

Socioeconomic differentials in mortality in Finland and the United States: the role of education and income

We document social inequalities in cause-specific mortality at ages 35–64 in Finland and the United States, countries with different health systems, income distributions, and social welfare programs for the working-aged population. The education–mortality gradient was the most marked for Finnish men and for causes of death linked to risk-taking, health behaviors, and stress. The association between family income and mortality was curvilinear in both countries. The effects of education and income were strongly attenuated after controlling for each other, marital status, and labor force participation, with the greatest attenuation observed for income in Finland and education in the United States.Elo, I. T., Martikainen, P., et Smith, K. P. (2006). Mortalité sociale en Finlande et aux Etats-Unis: Róle du niveau d'instruction et du revenu. Revue Europeéenne de démographie, 22, 177–201     

Infant health and mortality indicators

The ability of infant mortality and health indicators to monitor health conditions in early infancy, and their broader use as indicators of the general level of socio-economic development are discussed from three points of view. These are: (i) the increasing impact of differences in legal definitions of live and stillbirths on the comparability of the infant mortality figures produced by vital statistics; (ii) the validity of mortality measures to monitor health; (iii) the comparability of social inequalities in infant health and mortality over time and across countries.     

Heterogeneity in Family Life Course Patterns and Intra-Cohort Wealth Disparities in Late Working Age

European Journal of Population - Considering soaring wealth inequalities in older age, this research addresses the relationship between family life courses and widening wealth differences between...     

The Effects of Education, Social Class and Income on Non-alcohol- and Alcohol-Associated Suicide Mortality: A Register-based Study of Finnish Men Aged 25–64

This study aimed to analyse the effects of different socioeconomic indicators on non-alcohol-associated and alcohol-associated suicide in Finland. The data used comprised the 1990 census records for men who were 25–64-years old linked to the death register for 1991–2001. Poisson regression was used to calculate the adjusted relative mortality rates. There were 6,452 suicides among the study population, and in 42% of them alcohol intoxication was a contributory cause. Education, occupation-based social class and household income were inversely and strongly related to suicide regardless of the link with alcohol. For non-alcohol-associated suicide, the effect of education was largely mediated by social class and income, the effect of social class was partly explained by education and partly mediated by income, and the effect of income was rather small after adjustment for the other two indicators. When alcohol was involved, social class mediated a large part of educational effect, but a strong association also remained. Respectively, education explained a large proportion of the social class differences. Income had a minor effect. Adjustment for employment status explained some of the income differences, but living arrangements had little effect. The findings imply that low social class is associated with increased suicide risk regardless of employment status, and that the roots of socioeconomic differences in alcohol-associated suicide lie in early adulthood when education and health behavioural patterns are set. This casts some doubt on claims that current material factors are the main drivers of socioeconomic differences in suicide.     

Ethnic and Socioeconomic Segregation in Belgium: A Multiscalar Approach Using Individualised Neighbourhoods

Segregation may have profound effects when it is paired with an accumulation of inequalities. This is namely the case when ethnic and socioeconomic segregation overlap. Few studies in Europe have, however, addressed the relationship between ethnic and socioeconomic segregation in a comprehensive manner. This paper first aims at investigating the interrelation between ethnic and socioeconomic segregation in Belgium. Second it looks into the role of scale in the relationship between ethnic and socioeconomic segregation. The analyses are based on the newly available geocoded data from the 2011 Belgian census. These data were used to construct individualised neighbourhoods at nine scales with a nearest-neighbours approach for the urban agglomerations of Brussels, Antwerp, and Liege. Ethnic and socioeconomic indicators calculated for these individualised neighbourhoods were then inputted in independent factor analyses for each agglomeration. The results reveal remarkably similar segregation patterns in the three cities. Our analyses give way for three main conclusions: there is an undeniable process of spatial isolation of deprived migrants in Belgium’s inner cities; despite the central location of neighbourhoods with high concentration of migrants and poverty, the scope of isolation is considerably high, both in extension and in population density; and macro/national factors such as housing policies and territorial processes seem to shape the segregation patterns in Belgian cities.     

Cognition,Health, and Well-Being in a Rural Sub-Saharan African Population

Cognitive health is an important dimension of well-being in older ages, but few studies have investigated the demography of cognitive health in sub-Saharan Africa’s growing population of mature adults (= persons aged 45+). We use data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health to document the age and gender patterns of cognitive health, the contextual and life-course correlates of poor cognitive health, and the understudied linkages between cognitive and physical/mental well-being. Surprisingly, the age pattern of decline in cognitive health is broadly similar to that observed in the USA. We also find that women have substantially worse cognitive health than men and experience a steeper age gradient in cognitive ability. Strong social ties and exposure to socially complex environments are associated with higher cognitive health, as is higher socioeconomic status. Poor cognitive health is associated with adverse social and economic well-being outcomes such as less nutrition intake, lower income, and reduced work efforts even in this subsistence agriculture context. Lower levels of cognitive health are also strongly associated with increased levels of depression and anxiety and are associated with worse physical health measured through both self-reports and physical performance. Our findings suggest that cognition plays a key—but understudied—role in shaping late-life well-being in low-income populations.     

The component structure of elderly population growth in the Netherlands: 1950–1980

While there is no doubt about the magnitude of the growth of older age groups in industrialized nations, its structural components are less well understood. This paper examines the roles played by cohort succession and mortality in the process for the Netherlands during the period 1950 to 1980. While the size of population aged 65 and over has increased for both males and females, increases in the size of succeeding cohorts explain all of the growth in the older male population. Reductions in mortality at the older old ages play a much greater role than do reductions at younger old ages; the latter reductions occur among females only.     

四种老龄化理念及其政策蕴意

在老龄化问题研究中,健康老龄化、积极老龄化、成功老龄化和生产性老龄化,这四种理念具有不同的内涵。在结合地方养老服务创新案例分析四种老龄化理念的相互关系及其政策蕴意的基础上,运用“生活质量-社会质量”视角,评估健康老龄化和成功老龄化在提升老年群体生活质量方面的效用,探讨生产性老龄化和积极老龄化对提升社会质量的意义,从而深化人们对各种养老理念的理解,将老龄化的问题延展至老年照顾之外的参与和增能方面,丰富养老政策的内容和内涵,为发展老年友好型社会提供政策路径。     

Recent Mortality Trend Reversal in Russia: Are Regions Following the Same Tempo?

After several decades of negative trends and short-term fluctuations, life expectancy has been increasing in Russia since 2004. Between 2003 and 2014, the length of life rose by 6.6 years among males and by 4.6 years among females. While positive trends in life expectancy are observed in all regions of Russia, these trends are unfolding differently in different regions. First, regions entered the phase of life expectancy growth at different points in time. Second, the age- and cause-specific components of the gains in life expectancy and the number of years added vary noticeably. In this paper, we apply decomposition techniques—specifically, the stepwise replacement algorithm—to examine the age- and cause-specific components of the changes in inter-regional disparities during the current period of health improvement. The absolute inter-regional disparities in length of life, measured by the population-weighted standard deviation, decreased slightly between 2003 and 2014, from 3.3 to 3.2 years for males, and from 2.0 to 1.8 years for females. The decomposition of these small changes by ages and causes of death shows that these shifts were the result of diverse effects of mortality convergence at young and middle ages, and of mortality divergence at older ages. With respect to causes of death, the convergence is mainly attributable to external causes, while the inter-regional divergence of trends is largely determined by cardiovascular diseases. The two major cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg, are currently pioneering mortality improvements in Russia and are making the largest contributions to the inter-regional divergence.     

社会经济地位对女性健康的风险影响

选取城镇女性劳动力样本,运用结构方程模型与中国健康与营养调查数据(CHNS)检验社会经济地位、生活方式与健康风险的关系,研究对建立女性群体的健康风险防范机制以及相应的政策制定具有重要的意义。研究表明:(1)社会经济地位与女性健康风险呈正向相关,随着社会经济地位的上升,健康风险下降;(2)社会经济地位并不通过中间变量生活方式影响女性健康;(3)在社会经济地位的度量指标中,教育程度与职业对女性健康风险的影响较显著,收入的影响很小,几乎可以忽略不计。     

Causes of Fluctuating Mortality in Romania

During the post-communist transition, Romanians experienced some of the highest mortality rates in eastern Europe, some of the greatest fluctuations in life expectancy and some of the greatest delays in recovery. This study examines the shifts in cause-specific mortality underlying these fluctuations. Using demographic methods to understand the peaks and troughs in life expectancy during the past twenty years, we explore several explanations for these fluctuations: changes in exposure and behaviour associated with the social, economic and political changes; changes in health care affecting amenable causes of death and the progression of the epidemiologic transition. Throughout this period, there is a continuing shift from infectious towards chronic diseases mortality. Psycho-social stress during the period of transition affected survival, evidenced by increases in suicides and differences in mortality between men and women. Amenable causes of death took a greater toll on life expectancy, and increases in tuberculosis and congenital heart abnormality mortality provide evidence of a weakening of health services. However, decreases in vaccine-preventable mortality demonstrate that the health system did not fully fail. Policy changes also affected survival, including decreasing abortion-related mortality and, after initial increases in accidental mortality, new improvements, especially in traffic fatalities.     

老年人健康景观系统构建

目前社会人口老龄化问题已十分严重,同时城镇化的步伐加快,严重影响了老年人的生活品质和身心健康。如何通过对老年人生活景观环境的改善来提升老年人的生活品质和改善健康状况已成为当前一个重要课题。笔者针对老年人的生理、心理特征和生活需求,在老年人健康景观系统构建中,不仅从单个景观类型着手,而且将老年人生活所涉及的各种不同景观类型进行综合研究,营造老年人与景观环境和谐的关系,从而达到真正地改善老年人的生活环境、提升生活品质的目的。     

湖南省老年人参加健身活动的现状与分析

21世纪人口老龄化已成为全球性的社会问题,如何面对日趋严重的社会人口老龄化,增强老年人体质,提高老年人生活质量,成了当今世界面临的共同课题。长期从事健身活动改善了老年人的生活质量,对老年人预防疾病、延年益寿起着不可低估的作用,本文主要采用调查、访问等方法,从各个方面对湖南省老年人参加健身活动现状进行分析、研究,指出其存在的问题,并提出相应的对策。     

我国老年人心理健康自评及其影响因素研究

随着老龄化社会的到来,老年人健康问题,特别是心理健康问题日益成为了社会各界关注的焦点。基于实地调查数据,描述了我国老年人的心理健康状况,利用Ordered Probit回归模型,分析了个人特征、家庭关系、社会经济层面的状况对老年人心理健康的影响,同时,采用逐步纳入的方式,检验变量回归结果的稳健性。回归结果发现,不同户籍、年龄及家庭关系的老年群体在心理健康状况方面存在很大差异。在总结研究结论的基础上,从社会、家庭和个人三个层面对我国老年人心理健康和养老事业的发展提出若干思考。     

我国城乡老年人口生活质量比较研究

老年人口的核心问题是生活质量问题,对老年人口主观幸福感的关注有助于提高老年人口的生活质量.基于杭州市城乡老年人口主观幸福感的调查研究发现,城市老年人比农村老年人具有更强烈的主观幸福感.子女孝顺是影响城市和农村老年人主观幸福感的最主要因素;经济状况、对社区工作满意度、婚姻、性别等也是共同影响因素,但影响程度在城市和农村间存在差异.此外,在城市模型中,自我照料程度、子女个数等个人特征因素对老年人主观幸福感影响显著;在农村模型中,经济来源、对权益受侵害后的处理方式等经济和社会保障因素对老年人主观幸福感影响显著.总之,城乡老年人对提高生活质量的需求不同,城市老年人已侧重于对精神的需求,而农村老年人首先还需要物质的满足.     

对人口老龄化社会经济影响问题研究的回顾与分析

针对目前我国人口老龄化社会经济影响问题研究中的某些误区和概念、理论模糊的问题 ,通过对先前文献的简要回顾 ,从基本概念和理论上分析了这些问题的症结及其原因所在 ,并提出了解决这些问题的基本途径     

风险资产投资的童年诱因——基于CHARLS数据的实证检验

从童年健康的视角考察个体投资偏好和风险资产配置行为,将健康风险纳入资产选择模型,发现童年健康不佳的个体在金融投资决策和资产配置中往往会更加保守。采用2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据的实证研究发现：童年时期健康状况较差的个体,其成年后持有风险性金融资产的概率和比例均显著降低。采用工具变量法解决内生性问题,并通过控制个体特征以及童年时期的负向健康冲击后上述结论依然成立。机制分析表明,童年健康通过两种途径影响风险资产投资：一是人力资本和财富的积累,二是情绪和性格的塑造。进一步讨论发现童年健康对风险资产投资的影响在不同年龄和教育程度的群体间表现出较强的异质性。