Business Mobilization and Public Policy in the U.S. States*

Objective. The goal of this study is to examine how the political mobilization of business interests influences aggregate public policy outputs in the states. We examine the relationship between business mobilization and general state policy liberalism, as well as policy that we term state “business policy climate.” Methods. We construct a measure of the “business policy climate” from a number of tax and regulatory indicators in the states and examine whether business influences it and policy liberalism using ordinary least squares regression. Results. The analysis shows that business mobilization does not influence general policy liberalism but is a significant influence on a state's business policy climate. Specifically, the dominance of a state's campaign finance system by business interests makes policy more favorable toward business. Conclusions. The extent of business mobilization in a state is an important influence on public policy outputs but is constrained by the activities of other political actors such as unions.     

Racial Representation and U.S. Senate Apportionment*

Objectives. This research note explores whether the system of assigning each state equal representation in the U.S. Senate adversely affects racial minorities, groups that often have common political interests. We also project changes in minority representation over the next 20 years using Census data. Methods. We develop a new method of assessing racial bias due to apportionment, which calculates the number of seats lost by groups due to equal representation, a more substantively meaningful statistic than correlational measures. Results. We find that both African Americans and Hispanics are substantially underrepresented due to their greater presence in high‐population states as compared to in low‐population states. Whereas bias against African Americans appears to be falling, the demographic patterns of Hispanics will make them even more underrepresented in coming years. Conclusions. These findings are especially consequential considering that malapportionment has important public policy implications, including greater per‐capita distributive benefits for smaller states. Further, given that the Senate serves as a major veto point in U.S. politics, racial bias due to equal apportionment may have a significant impact on current and future political debates relevant to minority groups.     

国外现代商业银行风险管理及其启示

风险管理是现代微观金融学的一大支柱,也是现代商业银行的核心功能之一,因此,在商业银行管理中具有极其重要的地位。现代商业银行风险管理体系包括:风险控制组织、风险度量技术、风险规避技术、全面风险管理模式。我国应借鉴国外经验,积极引进并应用先进风险度量方法和风险管理技术。     

中美证券市场在险价值比较分析

在险价值作为金融行业计量市场风险的一种工具,已经被广泛接受。从期望在险价值的概念,计算出中美证券市场的期望在险价值并从实证研究中得出以下三个结论:从投资风险角度来看,中国证券市场的投资风险高于美国证券市场,同时证实上海证券市场的投资风险略高于深圳证券市场;就美国证券市场而言,投资风险最近十年低于整个100年的风险;上证指数和深成指数自设定以来季度在险价值服从分布,而美国整个100年的道琼斯工业指数的季度不服从分布,但近十年的季度服从分布。     

Risk Taking with Left- and Right-Skewed Lotteries*

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - While much literature has focused on preferences regarding risk, preferences over skewness also have significant economic implications. An important and...     

Candidates and Competition: Variability in Ideological Voting in U.S. Senate Elections*

Objectives. In choosing candidates to support in congressional elections, voters consider both policy and nonpolicy factors. However, the relative importance of incumbency or presidential approval versus candidates' ideological platforms likely varies across elections. Specifically, stiffer electoral competition should encourage ideology‐based voting because candidate information is more plentiful. In contrast, incumbents' ability to garner votes simply by virtue of already holding office should depress proximity voting in elections with incumbents. Methods. Using data from the 1988–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study, I estimate logistic regression models of individual vote choice. Results. I find that open‐seat elections do promote the use of candidate ideological proximity in the voting calculus but that the effects of election competitiveness are less clear. Conclusions. The findings have important implications for normative democratic theory, for our constitutional framework, and for elite behavior and aggregate‐level electoral outcomes.     

Social Capital and Fire Service Performance: Evidence from the U.S. States*

Objective. The present study evaluates whether areas with high levels of social capital are likely to have better fire service performance. Method. Utilizing Robert Putnam's 14‐measure index of social capital, OLS regression techniques are applied to objective data on the rate of unintentional fire deaths in the U.S. states between 1980 and 2003. Results. The findings show that social capital is associated with a low unintentional fire death rate, even when controlling for a range of important environmental constraints. However, the effects of social capital vary by its conceptual components. Conclusions. The study supports the argument that social capital is likely to be an important determinant of fire service outcomes, and suggests that the political engagement and social trust components may be the most important focus for public policies seeking to build social capital in order to reduce fire fatalities.     

Ideological Realignment in the Contemporary U.S. Electorate Revisited*

Objective. In this study, we revisit the ideological‐realignment theory proposed by Abramowitz and Saunders (1998) by assessing the varying impact a person's ideology had on his or her partisan identification for individuals in different regions and between men and women. Method. Through an examination of the NES cumulative data file and the 1992–1994 NES Panel Study, we present a series of tabular findings, an OLS regression model, and partial correlation coefficients to assess these changing subgroup dynamics. Results. Between 1978 and 1994, the impact of a person's ideology on his or her party identification grew in magnitude, while the impact of respondents' parental party identification on their own party identification waned. However, these changes were not felt uniformly throughout the electorate, with Southern white males and Southern white females exhibiting the greatest changes. In the case of Southern white males, racial issues now appear to be related to their party identification. Conclusion. We find support for the ideological‐realignment theory, but find evidence that such changes occurred rather unevenly throughout the electorate, suggesting that different dynamics of realignment may be at work simultaneously.     

Hispanic Intermarriage,Identification, and U.S. Latino Population Change*

Objective. This article examines the neglected role of Hispanic intermarriage and identification on Hispanic population change and Hispanic ethnicity. Methods. A trend analysis of Census data produced rates of Hispanic intermarriage and identification as Hispanic by children of intermarried Hispanics. These rates are applied to a projection model of Hispanic population change to 2025. Results. Hispanic intermarriage has been fairly stable and high, at about 14 percent. Almost two‐thirds of children of intermarried Hispanics are identified as Hispanic. The Hispanic population in 2025 is larger by almost 1 million when Hispanic intermarriage and identification rates are included in population projections. Conclusions. Failure to consider Hispanic intermarriage and identification may lead to erroneous conclusions about components of Hispanic population growth. Intermarriage and the propensity of “part‐Hispanics” to identify as Hispanic will be significant contributors to future Hispanic population growth, with implications for the meaning of Hispanic ethnicity and ethnic‐based public policies.     

Cross‐Border Earnings of U.S. Natives Along the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. This study explores whether the earnings of U.S.‐born cross‐border workers differ from those of their U.S.‐employed counterparts. We also analyze whether the cross‐border/non‐cross‐border wage differential changed during the 1990s—a decade when U.S.‐Mexico trade intensified and the maquiladora industry expanded. Methods. Employing decennial U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2000, this article estimates earnings functions and uses wage decomposition analysis to study changes in the earnings of U.S.‐born Hispanic and non‐Hispanic cross‐border workers. Results. The number of U.S.‐native cross‐border workers, while relatively small, increased significantly between 1990 and 2000, as did their earnings. A closer examination reveals that this cross‐border earnings premium only developed among non‐Hispanics. Conclusions. These findings indicate that some U.S. natives find lucrative employment opportunities on the Mexican side of the border, which might be diminished by additional restrictions for U.S.‐born residents to easily cross back and forth into Mexico.     

Ideological Centrism and the Electoral Fortunes of U.S. Senate Candidates*

Objective. The Downsian model of electoral competition with its individual‐level assumption of proximity voting by individuals implies that candidates in two‐party systems should perform better in elections when they adopt platforms more closely mirroring preferences of average constituents. Since extant analyses do not place candidates and constituents on a common ideological metric, they do not directly test the electoral consequences of proximity to voters. This study provides a direct test. Methods. I use the NES Senate Election Study to locate candidates and constituents on a common ideological metric and use ordinary least squares regression models to analyze the effects of candidate positioning on electoral outcomes. Results. Although stiff electoral competition may make it more likely that candidates gain votes by locating near average citizens, candidate proximity does not generally have a meaningful effect on Senate elections. Conclusions. Insignificant electoral benefits from ideological centrism may help explain candidate divergence in elections and has important implications for the nature of representation.     

Presidential Direct Action and Policy Continuity: The Case of U.S. International Population Policy*

Objectives. The purpose of this study is to describe and analyze the modern practice of unilateral presidential policy making in the area of U.S. international population policy. The analysis focuses on the implications of this practice in a constitutional system intended to limit and constrain direct presidential action in policy making. Methods. The authors conduct their analysis using a variety of qualitative sources, including leading studies on the topics of presidential direct action and U.S. international population policy, and government documents. Conclusions. Policy development in this area has been marked by dramatic back‐and‐forth shifts due to the modern practice of presidents making many decisions without legislative involvement. Although not the only policy area in which this practice has become the norm, the case study of U.S. international population policy reveals the pitfalls of deviating from the constitutional design of a system of balanced and constrained powers.     

The Precautionary Principle in Context: U.S. and E.U. Scientists' Prescriptions for Policy in the Face of Uncertainty*

Objective. Our objective is to explain how scientists interpret less‐than‐certain scientific findings to inform policymakers' choices on controversial science policy issues. We focus on two particularly difficult policy cases concerning global climate change and low‐dose radiation protection. Methods. Our method is to analyze data from a unique multination survey of scientists to analyze the ways their views about what is scientifically correct are translated into judgments about appropriate policy. The surveys asked scientists, randomly drawn from U.S. and E.U. subscribers to the journal Science, to indicate the “most likely” relationships between greenhouse gas emissions and average global temperatures and between radiation dose and incidence of cancer in humans. Follow‐up questions asked for their judgments about appropriate policy targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emission and safety standards for radiation exposure. The data permit analysis of the relationships between scientific certainty and policy judgments in these two cases. Results. Our results shed light on when and how scientists reach precautionary policy conclusions, demonstrating that scientists' application of precaution is dependent on context. In the case of radiation protection, greater certainty is associated with less precaution. But with respect climate change, we found the opposite relationship. Conclusions. We conclude with a discussion of the implications for the role of scientists, and scientific advice, in the policy process.     

Education and Smart Growth Policies in U.S. Cities: A Response to Lenahan O'Connell*

Objective. This response to Lenahan O'Connell's article “Exploring the Social Roots of Smart Growth Policy Adoption by Cities” examines whether the relationship between education and the adoption of smart growth programs in U.S. cities is reflective of the new political culture and rooted in postmaterial values or, perhaps, just reflective of a slightly different way of thinking about traditional economic development. Methods. Using data for 45 U.S. cities that have articulated broad policies to try to become more sustainable, this analysis includes a measure of the severity of air pollution as an indicator of the need for smart growth programs. Results. The measure of need is more strongly related to the pursuit of smart growth than is either education or income. Conclusions. Since the level of air pollution is frequently understood to make economic growth difficult or impossible, the results suggest that smart growth programs might be just as likely motivated by traditional economic development as by postmaterial values, and there is a need to develop a deeper understanding of the motivates for adopting such programs.     

How U.S. research institutions are responding to the single Institutional Review Board mandate

One of the most significant changes to the Common Rule is the requirement that institutions use a single Institutional Review Board (IRB) for cooperative research in the United States, unless more than one IRB is required by state, local, or tribal law, or a signatory federal agency decides an exception is warranted. We surveyed Human Research Protection Program (HRPP) officials at the top U.S. research institutions to understand their knowledge and opinion of the mandate, what steps their institutions are taking, and difficulties their institutions are facing. One-hundred seven institutions (56.9%) responded to the survey. While support for the single-IRB mandate was positive overall, most respondents acknowledged that their institution is likely to face some difficulties complying with it. Regulatory agencies can help institutions to comply with the mandate by providing guidance concerning such issues as exceptions to the mandate, local context review, oversight, and implementation of reliance agreements, and development of policies, procedures, and best practices.