The Precautionary Principle Is Incoherent

This article argues that no version of the precautionary principle can be reasonably applied to decisions that may lead to fatal outcomes. In support of this strong claim, a number of desiderata are proposed, which reasonable rules for rational decision making ought to satisfy. Thereafter, two impossibility theorems are proved, showing that no version of the precautionary principle can satisfy the proposed desiderata. These theorems are directly applicable to recent discussions of the precautionary principle in medicine, biotechnology, environmental management, and related fields. The impossibility theorems do not imply, however, that the precautionary principle is of no relevance at all in policy discussions. Even if it is not a reasonable rule for rational decision making, it is possible to interpret the precautionary principle in other ways, e.g., as an argumentative tool or as an epistemic principle favoring a reversed burden of proof.     

Anticipating or Accommodating to Public Concern? Risk Amplification and the Politics of Precaution Reexamined

Regulatory use of the precautionary principle (PP) tends to be broadly characterized either as a responsible approach for safeguarding against health and environmental risks in the face of scientific uncertainties, or as “state mismanagement” driven by undue political bias and public anxiety. However, the “anticipatory” basis upon which governments variably draw a political warrant for adopting precautionary measures often remains ambiguous. Particularly, questions arise concerning whether the PP is employed preemptively by political elites from the “top down,” or follows from more conventional democratic pressures exerted by citizens and other stakeholders from the “bottom up.” This article elucidates the role and impact of citizen involvement in the precautionary politics shaping policy discourse surrounding the U.K. government's “precautionary approach” to mobile telecommunications technology and health. A case study is presented that critically reexamines the basis upon which U.K. government action has been portrayed as an instance of anticipatory policy making. Findings demonstrate that the use of the PP should not be interpreted in the preemptive terms communicated by U.K. government officials alone, but also in relation to the wider social context of risk amplification and images of public concern formed adaptively in antagonistic precautionary discourse between citizens, politicians, industry, and the media, which surrounded cycles of government policy making. The article discusses the sociocultural conditions and political dynamics underpinning public influence on government anticipation and responsiveness exemplified in this case, and concludes with research and policy implications for how society subsequently comes to terms with the emergence and precautionary governance of new technologies under conflict.     

Chinese State Bureaucracy and Democratization: Contradictions and Strategization

Joining the current debate in the field of China studies, this paper argues that the two extremes of the inevitability and impossibility of democratization are not necessarily the only two trajectories of political development in China and that China can develop a genuine democracy that builds on, and in turn nurtures, responsible citizenship and administratorship, if CPC undertakes strategization to cope with the fundamental contradictions between democratization and political monism and reactionary logic of administration. Two examples of strategizing actions are given to illustrate how democratization may be enhanced.     

Rationality in policy making: Two concepts not one

The concept of rationality, central to any analysis of policy making, is shown to be dual. The qualitative concept of rationality, broadly equivalent to ‘appropriate’ directs the policy analyst to an examination of information flow (since it may be defective), of goals (since these may conflict), and of the momentum of decisions (since it can produce irrationality). The quantitative concept of rationality, broadly equivalent to ‘efficient’ is itself divisible into two models (‘ends–means’ and ‘alternative behaviour’). Either, however, directs the policy analyst to an exploration of alternatives (since ideally all should be known) and of evaluative techniques (since ideally these should indicate the best alternative). Quantitative, but not qualitative, rationality is frontally challenged by some theorists (notably Lindblom) and claimed to be insufficient by others (notably Dror).     

The complementary effects of rationality and intuition on strategic decision quality

Rationality and intuition are important dimensions of the strategic decision process. Prior studies have viewed these as distinct dimensions, providing limited insights for our understanding of strategic decision processes. Drawing on the dual process theory and research on process capability, this study examines the interplay between rationality and intuition based on a sample of 103 strategic decisions made by service firms in Greece. The results suggest that combining rationality and intuition at the same time leads to successful strategic decisions. Also, the moderating role of environmental dynamism was investigated. We found that in dynamic settings, decision-making teams which combine rationality and intuition outperform teams which use rationality or intuition separately. The implications of these findings for theory and practice are important and are analysed in the paper.     

Formalizing the Precautionary Principle Accounting for Strategic Interaction,Natural Factors,and Technological Factors

Four dimensions of the precautionary principle (PP), involving threat, uncertainty, action, and command, are formalized at the level of set theory and the level of individual players and natural and technological factors. Flow and decision diagrams with a feedback loop are developed to open up a new research agenda. The role of strategic interaction and games in the PP is underdeveloped or nonexistent in today's literature. To rectify this deficiency, six kinds of games are identified in the four PP dimensions. The games can be interlinked since player sets can overlap. Characteristics are illustrated. Accounting for strategic interaction, the article illustrates uncertainty in the PP regarding which game is played, which players participate in which game, strategy sets, payoffs, incomplete information, risk attitudes, and bounded rationality. The insurance and lottery games analyzed earlier for the safe minimum standard (SMS) for species extinction are revisited and placed into a broader context illustrating strategic interaction. Uncertainty about payoffs illustrates transformations back and forth between the chicken game, battle of the sexes, assurance game, and prisoner's dilemma.     

DEA target setting approach within the cross efficiency framework

Target setting is an important reason that data envelopment analysis (DEA) is widely applied to analyze efficiency. However, the efficiency overestimation of traditional DEA may affect the rationality of target setting, and even may make this method invalid in target setting. This paper innovatively proposes the definition of cross efficient, and develops two new target setting approaches for individual decision-making unit (DMU) and global optimization to improve the cross efficiency of DMUs in different decision-making situations. Then the influence of decision maker's preference on the improvement direction is discussed, and then these approaches are further extended. This paper solves the limitations of traditional DEA in target setting, and provides different directions to improve cross efficiency for meeting decision makers’ needs. Finally, two examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of these approaches.     

System dynamics: Portraying bounded rationality

This paper examines the linkages between system dynamics and the Carnegie School in their treatment of human decision making. It is argued that the structure of system dynamics models implicitly assumes bounded rationality in decision making and that recognition of this assumption would aid system dynamicists in model construction and in communication with other social science disciplines. The paper begins by examining Simon's ‘principle of bounded rationality’ which draws attention to the cognitive limitations on the information gathering and processing powers of human decision makers. Forrester's ‘Market Growth Model’ is used to illustrate the central theme that system dynamics models are portrayals of bounded rationality. Close examination of the model formulation reveals decision functions involving simple rules of thumb and limited information content. Finally, there is a discussion of the implications of Carnegie philosophy for system dynamics as it affects communication, model structuring, model analysis and future research.     

Joint Persistence of Transformation Products in Chemicals Assessment: Case Studies and Uncertainty Analysis

The joint persistence (JP) quantifies the environmental persistence of a parent compound and a selection of relevant transformation products. Here, the importance as well as the uncertainty of the JP in comparison to the persistence of the parent compound alone (primary persistence, PP) are investigated. To demonstrate the effect of transformation products on the environmental persistence of organic chemicals, three case studies of parent compounds (nonylphenol ethoxylates, perchloroethylene, atrazine) and transformation products are investigated in detail with a multimedia fate model. Comparison of the PP and JP values shows that transformation products can significantly increase the persistence. In addition to the point estimates of PP and JP, the associated uncertainties are investigated. For each of the case studies, the chemical-specific input parameters of all compounds are varied and the corresponding variance of the PP and JP is determined by Monte Carlo simulations. Interestingly, the higher number of input parameters required for the JP does not necessarily increase the uncertainty of the JP as compared to that of the PP alone. An exact mathematical expression specifying the contribution of each transformation product to the JP is given. When transformation products are grouped in different generations, it becomes discernible that the first generation increases the JP most; the later generations are of decreasing importance. Finally, the effect of incomplete knowledge of the transformation products and their properties on the JP results is discussed. For reliable JP estimates, knowledge of the first generation transformation products and their degradation rate constants is required.     

Trade-offs and the precautionary principle: A lexicographic utility approach

The precautionary principle is often argued to be irrational because it cannot adequately explain how resources should be distributed across multiple possible catastrophes or between catastrophic and noncatastrophic risks. We address this problem of trade-offs by extending a recently proposed formal interpretation of the precautionary principle (PP) within a lexical utility framework and using it to prove results about which distribution of resources maximizes lexical utility when several catastrophic risks exist, given different assumptions. We also explain how our lexical utility interpretation of PP can recommend balanced distributions of resources between disaster prevention and other concerns.     

The Significance of Socioeconomic and Ethnic Diversity for the Risk Communication Process

Risk communication is being characterized as one way of facilitating more effective, democratic and participatory risk management strategies. An emphasis on formal communication approaches as a means to improve decisions and decrease conflict will highlight the challenge of managing hazards within a culturally heterogeneous society. Communication and participatory strategies will be considered successful only if diverse communities can be engaged as partners in the policy process. Because responses to risks are embedded and evolve within broader social environments, achieving the promise of risk communication across a diverse society may not be possible absent an understanding of how sociocultural variables and past experiences shape the exchange of ideas or information in any particular situation. This paper considers the implications of ethnic and socioeconomic variability for the risk communication process, summarizing theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence on the link between sociocultural features and risk responses. Specifically, the factors that define the context of communication may influence: the initial framing of a risk issue, particularly, the adoption of an environmental justice vs. scientific/economic perspective; the perceived importance of various aspects of the decision problem; and prior beliefs about environmental hazards and agencies involved in risk management. Two examples of situations requiring communications about risk are presented and illustrate how these principles could operate in minority or lower-income communities. A significant challenge for health and regulatory officials will be to engage in an interactive process of information and opinion exchanges that is reasonable and effective within vastly different socioeconomic and cultural contexts.     

Multimedia Analysis of PAHs and Nitro-PAH Daughter Products in the Los Angeles Basin

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that are released into the atmosphere may have health consequences that can be compounded by their nitro-PAH atmospheric transformation products. The available literature suggests that some of the atmospheric nitro-PAH daughter products may increase the overall environmental health risk associated with PAHs. Therefore, an important issue is whether there is merit in considering atmospheric transformation products of air toxins when conducting environmental health-risk analyses. To illustrate the above issue, a comparative analysis of the potential risk that may be imposed by PAHs and their daughter products was carried out for the Los Angeles Basin. The analysis consisted of first assessing the multimedia environmental concentration of selected PAHs and nitro-PAHs using a spatial-compartmental modeling approach coupled with available monitoring data. Multimedia concentrations were then used to estimate chemical media-specific mutagenic densities as well as average daily intake from multiple pathways, followed by cancer risk for the known carcinogens among the study chemicals. The analysis revealed that mutagenic densities of the nitro-PAH daughter products can significantly exceed those of the parent PAHs. The results of this study suggest that there is merit in further investigation of the potential contribution of nitro-PAHs to the overall environmental health risk associated with airborne PAHs.     

Uncertain Risk Assessment and Management: Case Studies of the Application of the Precautionary Principle in Portugal

This study intends to clarify how the precautionary principle (PP) has been interpreted and applied by the courts in Portugal in the analysis of conflicts associated with uncertain and serious potential risks to human health and the environment. It also aims to contribute to the debate of when and how to apply precautionary measures. To this end, recent court cases in the areas of waste incineration, high-voltage power lines, as well as dam and wind farm construction were considered. The degree of consistency in the courts’ decisions and their reasons in the different judicial bodies was analyzed with the support of a theoretical framework based on three attributes: the level of seriousness of potential hazards, level of evidence required, and the severity of precautionary actions taken. Different positions among courts were observed, with contradictory arguments in the same case or in similar cases. A greater propensity for favorable decisions in the acceptance of restraining orders was verified in the courts of lower instances, where human health could be threatened. However, the decisions of the Supreme Administrative Court, which were always unfavorable to the restraining orders, seem to reflect the priority given to national economic and political interests over local or regional environmental interests. They may also reflect the Supreme Court's reluctancy to apply the PP in the absence of a firm legally binding PP in national legislation. To address this situation, more explicit legal requirements and criteria for the analysis of uncertain risks and the weighting of interests by area of activity are needed.     

BIASES IN MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS: IRRATIONALITY OR ASYMMETRIC LOSS?

Empirical studies using survey data on expectations have frequently observed that forecasts are biased and have concluded that agents are not rational. We establish that existing rationality tests are not robust to even small deviations from symmetric loss and hence have little ability to tell whether the forecaster is irrational or the loss function is asymmetric. We quantify the trade‐off between forecast inefficiency and asymmetric loss leading to identical outcomes of standard rationality tests and explore new and more general methods for testing forecast rationality jointly with flexible families of loss functions that embed squared loss as a special case. Empirical applications to survey data on forecasts of real output growth and inflation suggest that rejections of rationality may largely have been driven by the assumption of squared loss. Moreover, our results suggest that agents are averse to “bad” outcomes such as lower‐than‐expected real output growth and higher‐than‐expected inflation and that they incorporate such loss aversion into their forecasts. (JEL: C22, C53, E37)     

THE ROLE OF SUPPLY MANAGEMENT CAPABILITIES IN GREEN SUPPLY

Managers realize that they should avoid complex green supply initiatives when they do not have the capabilities to implement them. However, they have little guidance on how these capabilities can be developed. This paper provides an initial analysis of the role of supply management capabilities in green supply. We argue that the implementation of green supply is better explained by focusing on the development and deployment of an organization's specialized internal resources, rather than by the more usual focus on external environmental pressures on a firm. Further, we argue that capabilities appropriate for green supply are developed by a proactive corporate environmental stance and by a more strategic purchasing and supply management approach. We test our model using data from a two‐phase survey of 70 operating units within UK public limited companies. Our results indicate support for our conjecture that supply management capabilities are jointly developed by a proactive corporate environmental approach and a strategic purchasing and supply process. Our study results should be useful to business strategists, regulators, and researchers interested in the predictors of corporate green behavior. They should also assist future researchers in many branches of environmental management who are seeking to explore the role of the internal capabilities of firms in supporting environmental management.     

Hold Safety Inventory Before,At, or After the Fan‐Out Point?

We consider a product sold in multiple variants, each with uncertain demand, produced in a multi‐stage process from a standard (i.e., generic) sub‐assembly. The fan‐out point is defined as the last process stage at which outputs are generic (outputs at every subsequent stage are variant‐specific). Insights gained from an analytical study of the system are used to develop heuristics that determine the stage(s) at which safety inventory should be held. We offer a relatively‐simple heuristic that approaches globally‐optimal results even though it uses only two relatively‐local parameters. We call this the VAPT, or value‐added/processing time heuristic, because it determines whether a (local) stage should hold inventory based only on the value added at that local stage relative to its downstream stage, along with the processing time at that local stage relative to its downstream stage. Another key insight is that, contrary to possible intuition, safety inventory should not always be held at the fan‐out point, although a fan‐out point does hold inventory under a wider range of conditions. We also explore when postponement is most valuable and illustrate that postponement may often be less beneficial than suggested by Lee and Tang (1997).     

Informing and Educating the Public About Risk

The objective of informing and educating the public about risk issues seems easy to attain in principle, but, in practice, may be difficult to accomplish. This paper attempts to illustrate why this is so. To be effective, risk communicators must recognize and overcome a number of obstacles that have their roots in the limitations of scientific risk assessment and the idiosyncrasies of the human mind. Doing an adequate job of communicating means finding comprehensible ways of presenting complex technical material that is clouded by uncertainty and inherently difficult to understand. The problems may not be insurmountable, however, if designers of risk information programs are sensitive to the difficulties.     

Strategic quest and the search for the primal mother

This paper seeks to offer a Jungian perspective on the purposive behaviour of organizations and to throw light on the recent preoccupation with various organizational initiatives such as quality management, benchmarking, and even strategic approaches to HRD. The paper is unconventional in its approach in that it seeks to engage with the issues it discusses in both its form and its content. The purpose of the paper is to give attention to feminine aspects of the organization and, in particular, to the relegation of the feminine from the organization and, by implication, from social life. Here the feminine equates to the Jungian anima, the archetype of the male feminine. The ideas in the paper operate in the space between the organization as regulation and purposive rationality and the organization as living, physical bodies: between the Law and the Body. The form of the paper replicates these divisions and so text boxes run throughout the text to exemplify the captured otherness which is a central concern of the paper. The rationale for the text boxes is understated to allow the relationship between the rational and the physical to remain playful and ambivalent (see Baudrillard 1990). The paper is concerned with the questing behaviour of organizations and the expression of loss of the feminine, with the construction of masculine emblems that seek to substitute for the lost feminine, and with the impossibility of fulfilment.     

Assessment of human exposure to gaseous pollutants

A mathematical model to aid in assessment of human environmental exposure to volatile organic substances is presented. The model simulates the convective and diffusive transport of gas from the ambient environment into the human body by way of the respiratory and circulatory systems. Data required include easily obtained physical and chemical properties of substances as well as several estimated or measured physiological parameters. Transient and steady-state tissue concentrations resulting from an input atmospheric partial pressure are predicted. From these concentrations, an effective dose may be calculated, allowing for the determination of an exposure-response relationship based upon independently obtained dose-response data. The model's results compare favorably to experimental data on oxygen and halothane. Steady-state conditions are reached very rapidly. These results suggest that uptake of these substances is limited by both ventilation and perfusion. rates are demonstrated to be essentially linear within the current neighborhoods. Conditions in which the primary processes of ventilation, diffusion, perfusion, and elimination limit uptake of gases are considered. Expressions describing the conditions necessary for a single process to limit gas uptake are derived. Accompanying equations for estimating tissue concentrations under these limiting conditions are presented.     

Communicating Conservation Status: How Different Statistical Assessment Criteria Affect Perceptions of Extinction Risk

Although alternative forms of statistical and verbal information are routinely used to convey species’ extinction risk to policymakers and the public, little is known about their effects on audience information processing and risk perceptions. To address this gap in literature, we report on an experiment that was designed to explore how perceptions of extinction risk differ as a function of five different assessment benchmarks (Criteria A–E) used by scientists to classify species within IUCN Red List risk levels (e.g., Critically Endangered, Vulnerable), as well as the role of key individual differences in these effects (e.g., rational and experiential thinking styles, environmental concern). Despite their normative equivalence within the IUCN classification system, results revealed divergent effects of specific assessment criteria: on average, describing extinction risk in terms of proportional population decline over time (Criterion A) and number of remaining individuals (Criterion D) evoked the highest level of perceived risk, whereas the single‐event probability of a species becoming extinct (Criterion E) engendered the least perceived risk. Furthermore, participants scoring high in rationality (analytic thinking) were less prone to exhibit these biases compared to those low in rationality. Our findings suggest that despite their equivalence in the eyes of scientific experts, IUCN criteria are indeed capable of engendering different levels of risk perception among lay audiences, effects that carry direct and important implications for those tasked with communicating about conservation status to diverse publics.