Effects of Acknowledging Uncertainty about Earthquake Risk Estimates on San Francisco Bay Area Residents’ Beliefs,Attitudes, and Intentions

We test here the risk communication proposition that explicit expert acknowledgment of uncertainty in risk estimates can enhance trust and other reactions. We manipulated such a scientific uncertainty message, accompanied by probabilities (20%, 70%, implicit [“will occur”] 100%) and time periods (10 or 30 years) in major (≥magnitude 8) earthquake risk estimates to test potential effects on residents potentially affected by seismic activity on the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (n = 750). The uncertainty acknowledgment increased belief that these specific experts were more honest and open, and led to statistically (but not substantively) significant increases in trust in seismic experts generally only for the 20% probability (vs. certainty) and shorter versus longer time period. The acknowledgment did not change judged risk, preparedness intentions, or mitigation policy support. Probability effects independent of the explicit admission of expert uncertainty were also insignificant except for judged risk, which rose or fell slightly depending upon the measure of judged risk used. Overall, both qualitative expressions of uncertainty and quantitative probabilities had limited effects on public reaction. These results imply that both theoretical arguments for positive effects, and practitioners’ potential concerns for negative effects, of uncertainty expression may have been overblown. There may be good reasons to still acknowledge experts’ uncertainties, but those merit separate justification and their own empirical tests.     

研发型战略联盟风险预警机制研究

研发型联盟对风险的识别和预警直接决定了研发活动的成败。本文针对研发型联盟面临的风险进行了风险预警设计,首先依据风险的来源划分了联盟可能面临的风险种类,其次明确了联盟风险识别程序;在此基础上,构建了包含六元素(目标、文化、方法、组织、信息、过程)的研发型战略联盟风险预警模式,六个元素构成了风险预警的有机整体,运用管理熵理论对研发联盟风险预警度量进行了量化处理,以熵权从内外两个来源确定联盟的风险度量,并以传递熵概念来明确预警信号指标的准确性,给出了一个较为完整和准确的量化预警模型,以期利于联盟决策者的风险防范应对策略制定。     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

Statistical Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku,Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

In this article, we develop statistical models to predict the number and geographic distribution of fires caused by earthquake ground motion and tsunami inundation in Japan. Using new, uniquely large, and consistent data sets from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, we fitted three types of models—generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs), and boosted regression trees (BRTs). This is the first time the latter two have been used in this application. A simple conceptual framework guided identification of candidate covariates. Models were then compared based on their out‐of‐sample predictive power, goodness of fit to the data, ease of implementation, and relative importance of the framework concepts. For the ground motion data set, we recommend a Poisson GAM; for the tsunami data set, a negative binomial (NB) GLM or NB GAM. The best models generate out‐of‐sample predictions of the total number of ignitions in the region within one or two. Prefecture‐level prediction errors average approximately three. All models demonstrate predictive power far superior to four from the literature that were also tested. A nonlinear relationship is apparent between ignitions and ground motion, so for GLMs, which assume a linear response‐covariate relationship, instrumental intensity was the preferred ground motion covariate because it captures part of that nonlinearity. Measures of commercial exposure were preferred over measures of residential exposure for both ground motion and tsunami ignition models. This may vary in other regions, but nevertheless highlights the value of testing alternative measures for each concept. Models with the best predictive power included two or three covariates.     

基于VaR的我国商品期货市场风险的预警研究

本文以郑州商品交易所的硬麦期货和上海期货交易所的铜期货为例,构造了期货合约收益率连续时间序列,计算了序列的VaR值,对预测结果的有效性进行了检验,并提出了将VaR曲线和保证金水平相结合的方法,对商品期货市场风险进行单指标预警.     

Factors Motivating Individuals to Take Precautionary Action for an Expected Earthquake in Istanbul

Istanbul is expected to experience an earthquake in the near future, but individuals show limited interest in preparing for it. This study aims to identify the factors associated with taking action to prepare for an earthquake and mitigate its effects at the individual level. A field survey was carried out in 2007 in two districts of Istanbul with different levels of earthquake risk. Within these districts, three socioeconomic levels were considered. A total of 1,123 people were interviewed face to face. Analysis indicated that the educational level of the respondents was the leading factor associated with taking at least three measures, followed by living in a higher earthquake risk area, having participated in rescue and solidarity activities in previous earthquakes, a higher level of knowledge about earthquakes, home ownership, a higher score for action‐stimulating attitudes, being younger, and a higher general safety score, in that order. The findings pointed to the role of knowledge about earthquakes and possible mitigation/preparedness measures, and thus the importance of developing effective awareness programs. Such programs should also consider the characteristics of different groups in the population. Motivated individuals, such as those who have participated in rescue and solidarity activities in previous earthquakes, could be involved in reaching other people.     

“These Power Lines Make Me Ill”: A Typology of Residents’ Health Responses to a New High‐Voltage Power Line

Little attention has been devoted to the potential diversity in residents’ health responses when exposed to an uncertain environmental health risk. The present study explores whether subgroups of residents respond differently to a new high‐voltage power line (HVPL) being put into operation. We used a quasi‐experimental prospective field study design with two pretests during the construction of a new HVPL, and two posttests after it was put into operation. Residents living nearby (0–300 m, n = 229) filled out questionnaires about their health and their perception of the environment. We applied latent class growth models to investigate heterogeneity in the belief that health complaints were caused by a power line. Classes were compared on a wide range of variables relating to negative‐oriented personality traits, perceived physical and mental health, and perceptions of the environment. We identified five distinct classes of residents, of which the largest (49%) could be described as emotionally stable and healthy with weak responses to the introduction of a new power line. A considerable minority (9%) responded more strongly to the new line being activated. Residents in this class had heard more about the health effects of power lines beforehand, were more aware of the activation of the new line, and reported a decrease in perceived health afterwards. Based on our findings we can conclude that there is a considerable heterogeneity in health responses to a new HVPL. Health risk perceptions appear to play an important role in this typology, which has implications for risk management.     

Individual Disaster Assistance For Socially Vulnerable People: Lessons Learned From the Pohang Earthquake in the Republic of Korea

The Republic of Korea has been considered to be relatively safe from earthquake hazards because of the geological location of the Korean Peninsula, which has a low level of intraplate seismic activity. However, an earthquake with a moment magnitude of 5.4 struck the city of Pohang on November 15, 2017, causing 90 casualties and 52 million USD in property losses. During the recovery process after the earthquake, the Korean government provided individual disaster assistance to victims who reported their damages. However, the government disaster assistance could have been unfairly distributed among the socially vulnerable victims who essentially relied on that assistance. This study identifies whether the government disaster assistance was fairly distributed to socially vulnerable victims using a statistical model based on the data from the Pohang earthquake that occurred in 2017 in Korea. A conceptual model was constructed using a structural equation model (SEM) of three factors—social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and the amount paid out in individual disaster assistance. Furthermore, interviews with and a survey of the victims were conducted to verify the problems identified by the conceptual model. This study found that socially vulnerable victims were less likely to take advantage of the government disaster assistance program.     

基于多空交易者模型的股改对市场有效性影响的检验

本文从市场价格是由多空交易者相互作用所形成的观点出发,构建了多空交易者模型,将市场相对有效性概念作为实证检验的理论基础,运用我国股票市场数据,检验了股权分置改革对我国股票市场处理新信息效率的影响,结果显示股权分置改革改善了市场运行效率,使我国市场相对有效性得到提高。但结果也表明当前我国市场效率仍不足,需进一步推进相关制度建设来提高我国市场处理信息的效率。     

跨企业组织协同产品开发中供应商早期参与策略研究

在跨企业组织的协同产品开发中,供应商的参与时间和设计活动间的信息交流是影响整个产品开发时间和供应商开发成本的重要因素之一。基于对设计活动的技术创新程度和下游制造商信息对上游供应商的重要程度,扩展了知识累积函数和设计返工函数。针对供应商的参与时间和信息交流次数,建立了供应商参与协同产品开发模型,通过构造考虑产品开发时间和供应商开发成本权衡的全局收益变量,证明了全局收益极大值的存在性。在此基础上,分别给出了供应商最优参与时间和最优的信息交流次数的计算公式以及供应商参与协同产品开发策略选择的判定条件。最后通过实例验证了该结论的适用性。     

Mapping the changes in management science: A review of ‘soft’ OR/MS articles published in Omega (1973–2008)

The paper proposes a framework to map the development of management science (MS) and uses it to survey the MS literature published in Omega, the International Journal of Management Science. The management science discourse over the last 35 years is mapped in four paradigms: (1) optimisation/normative; (2) interpretative/learning; (3) critical; and (4) a post-modern management science approach. Using a set of keywords and authors’ names associated with the main features of each MS discourse, articles published between 1973 and 2008 are grouped. Results seem to suggest that Omega, a US-based journal, has been mainly developing publications under the optimisation paradigm; only very few papers adhering to the interpretative/learning and critical paradigms have been given space in Omega. The handful of papers from the interpretative paradigm are seen as attempts of UK-based academics to open some space for ‘soft’ operational research (OR) or ‘problem structuring methods’ in a positivistic outlook that seems to pervade US management science practice. Results of the survey and features of MS literature published in Omega are discussed. The paper aims to raise awareness amongst management scientist, systems and operational researchers of the differences between the MS/OR practice in both countries.     

Return to work: A comparison of two cognitive behavioural interventions in cases of work-related psychological complaints among the self-employed

We investigated the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and a combined intervention of workplace- and individual-focused techniques among self-employed people on sick leave owing to work-related psychological complaints (such as anxiety, depression, and burnout). Both interventions were based on CBT; however, one was conducted by psychotherapists and involved extensive CBT, while the other was delivered by “labour experts” and consisted of a brief CBT-derived intervention combined with both individual-focused and workplace interventions. One hundred and twenty-two self-employed people who had applied for sickness benefit from an insurance company enrolled in a randomized controlled design. These individuals were assessed before the intervention and then at 4 months and 10 months after the onset of the intervention. The outcome was assessed based on duration of sick leave until partial and full return to work and on psychological complaints. Significant effects on partial and full return were found in favour of the combined intervention: partial return occurred 17 and 30 days earlier in this group than in the CBT group and the control group, respectively. For full return to work, the difference was approximately 200 days. A decrease in psychological complaints was present in each condition but we found no significant interaction effects. The results suggest that work resumption should be addressed earlier in individuals receiving CBT. This insight is of value for the (scarce) literature concerning interventions for individuals who are on sick leave owing to work-related psychological complaints.     

Return to work: A comparison of two cognitive behavioural interventions in cases of work-related psychological complaints among the self-employed

Abstract

We investigated the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and a combined intervention of workplace- and individual-focused techniques among self-employed people on sick leave owing to work-related psychological complaints (such as anxiety, depression, and burnout). Both interventions were based on CBT; however, one was conducted by psychotherapists and involved extensive CBT, while the other was delivered by “labour experts” and consisted of a brief CBT-derived intervention combined with both individual-focused and workplace interventions. One hundred and twenty-two self-employed people who had applied for sickness benefit from an insurance company enrolled in a randomized controlled design. These individuals were assessed before the intervention and then at 4 months and 10 months after the onset of the intervention. The outcome was assessed based on duration of sick leave until partial and full return to work and on psychological complaints. Significant effects on partial and full return were found in favour of the combined intervention: partial return occurred 17 and 30 days earlier in this group than in the CBT group and the control group, respectively. For full return to work, the difference was approximately 200 days. A decrease in psychological complaints was present in each condition but we found no significant interaction effects. The results suggest that work resumption should be addressed earlier in individuals receiving CBT. This insight is of value for the (scarce) literature concerning interventions for individuals who are on sick leave owing to work-related psychological complaints.     

Role of flexibility in supply chain design and modeling—Introduction to the special issue

In this introductory note, we describe the motivation behind this special issue on supply chain design and modeling. We begin by noting the potential opportunities offered by flexibility of a system in enhancing its functionalities and capabilities. After defining the nature of flexibility, we briefly describe flexibility in a supply chain, pertinent issues, and potential tools and techniques utilized for designing and modeling flexibility in it. We close out with a brief review of the articles in this issue and their relevance to the interests of decision makers.     

Statistical Approach to Identify Threshold and Point of Departure in Dose–Response Data

The study presents an integrated, rigorous statistical approach to define the likelihood of a threshold and point of departure (POD) based on dose–response data using nested family of bent‐hyperbola models. The family includes four models: the full bent‐hyperbola model, which allows for transition between two linear regiments with various levels of smoothness; a bent‐hyperbola model reduced to a spline model, where the transition is fixed to a knot; a bent‐hyperbola model with a restricted negative asymptote slope of zero, named hockey‐stick with arc (HS‐Arc); and spline model reduced further to a hockey‐stick type model (HS), where the first linear segment has a slope of zero. A likelihood‐ratio test is used to discriminate between the models and determine if the more flexible versions of the model provide better or significantly better fit than a hockey‐stick type model. The full bent‐hyperbola model can accommodate both threshold and nonthreshold behavior, can take on concave up and concave down shapes with various levels of curvature, can approximate the biochemically relevant Michaelis–Menten model, and even be reduced to a straight line. Therefore, with the use of this model, the presence or absence of a threshold may even become irrelevant and the best fit of the full bent‐hyperbola model be used to characterize the dose–response behavior and risk levels, with no need for mode of action (MOA) information. Point of departure (POD), characterized by exposure level at which some predetermined response is reached, can be defined using the full model or one of the better fitting reduced models.