上市公司传闻的澄清效果研究——来自中国证券市场的证据

发布澄清公告是上市公司应对市场传闻的重要途径.然而,证券市场中澄清公告的实际效果如何,以及哪些因素会影响澄清效果尚未得到实证检验.为此,收集了从2000年到2008年中国A股市场1 960个澄清公告,从中整理出179个针对负面传闻进行"澄清"的样本.研究发现,澄清公告效果一定程度上依赖于公司的澄清方式,模糊澄清非但达不到效果,而且进一步加剧了传闻的影响,产生"澄清公告澄不清"的现象.多元回归模型的结果显示,澄清效果不仅与澄清方式有显著关系,而且还受到公司声誉、停牌等因素的影响.研究结论为传闻心理学实验研究的发现提供了中国证券市场的直接证据,同时也为上市公司有效应对传闻提供了新思路.     

Changing Corporate Governance in Response to Negative Media Reports

We study how organizations change their corporate governance in response to negative publicity in the media. We build on insights from the literature on interpersonal trust to theorize how organizations respond to different types of trust‐damaging information. We suggest that organizations are likely to replace key individuals involved in the corporate governance process when trust‐damaging information provides evidence of low integrity. In contrast, organizations are likely to make changes in how the governance process is organized when trust‐damaging information provides evidence of low benevolence. We test our hypotheses by using data on publicly traded Korean firms from 2006 to 2013. Our results provide general support for our argument about corporate governance changes that organizations initiate in response to different types of trust‐damaging information. We also explore how foreign ownership and state ownership moderate organizational responses to trust‐damaging information.     

Should Cities Invest in Sheltering‐in‐Place Measures Against Chlorine Truck Attacks by Terrorists?

After an intentional release of chlorine in an office district, public responses such as sheltering‐in‐place could save many lives if rapid enough. However, previous work does not estimate how fast and effective such responses would be for several possible investments in attack detection, public alert, and building ventilation, nor whether such measures would be cost effective. We estimate public response times with investment options in place, and resulting changes in fatalities as well as system costs, including false alarm costs, and cost effectiveness in terms of cost per net death avoided. The measures do have life‐saving potential, especially if all response times are at or near the lower limits of the ranges assumed in this article. However, due to uncertainties, it is not clear that responses would be rapid enough to save many people. In some cases total fatalities would increase, since sheltering after chlorine vapor has already entered buildings can increase occupants’ chlorine exposure. None of the options considered have median cost per statistical life saved meeting a cost‐effectiveness threshold of $6.5 million across all of the chlorine exposure dose‐response and ingress‐delay models considered here, even if there were one attack per year in the area covered by the system. Given these and other issues discussed in this article, at this point investments to improve sheltering‐in‐place capability appear not to be robust strategies for reducing fatalities from chlorine attack in an office district.     

Cognitive model of patient aggression towards health care staff: The patient's perspective

Aggression towards health care staff has become the focus for research as well as for government intervention. Negative effects upon staff and organizations have been established, yet few detailed explanations are offered for this aggression, and none represents the patient's perspective. This paper presents a model from the patient's perspective that takes account of situational variables, while also focusing upon patient cognitions. It also considers physiological responses related to arousal that might underpin aggression in an anxiety-provoking situation. In a previous study the frequency with which aggression was preceded by some anxiety-provoking event and the extent to which assailants displayed diminished cognitive processing were established; these were incorporated into the model. Increased anxiety commonly experienced by patients can have a negative effect upon cognitive processing. Anxiety generates a hyper-vigilance for threatening stimuli, induces selective attentional bias for threat, and causes a narrowing of attention, thus reducing cues and information upon which to make accurate appraisals and attributions. With such impairments, patients may make negative rather than positive attributions regarding actions of staff, which are frequently anxiety provoking. Thus, patients perceive staff behaviour as threatening rather than benign, and in the absence of positive attributions it will invoke an aggressive response. What health care staff perceive as aggression may be seen by patients as a defence against perceived attack. Changes in policy that take this into account may reduce future aggressive incidents.     

Cognitive model of patient aggression towards health care staff: The patient's perspective

Abstract

Aggression towards health care staff has become the focus for research as well as for government intervention. Negative effects upon staff and organizations have been established, yet few detailed explanations are offered for this aggression, and none represents the patient's perspective. This paper presents a model from the patient's perspective that takes account of situational variables, while also focusing upon patient cognitions. It also considers physiological responses related to arousal that might underpin aggression in an anxiety-provoking situation. In a previous study the frequency with which aggression was preceded by some anxiety-provoking event and the extent to which assailants displayed diminished cognitive processing were established; these were incorporated into the model. Increased anxiety commonly experienced by patients can have a negative effect upon cognitive processing. Anxiety generates a hyper-vigilance for threatening stimuli, induces selective attentional bias for threat, and causes a narrowing of attention, thus reducing cues and information upon which to make accurate appraisals and attributions. With such impairments, patients may make negative rather than positive attributions regarding actions of staff, which are frequently anxiety provoking. Thus, patients perceive staff behaviour as threatening rather than benign, and in the absence of positive attributions it will invoke an aggressive response. What health care staff perceive as aggression may be seen by patients as a defence against perceived attack. Changes in policy that take this into account may reduce future aggressive incidents.     

Organizational Implications of Gossip and Rumor

Abstract

The challenge in designing organizational interventions lies in making explicit and available what is usually implicit. Accordingly, a contribution to the understanding of complex and implicit practices such as gossip and rumor, the conditions responsible for their origin, as well as the relation they sustain to the outcome of group survival, particularly in organizational settings are the topics of this paper. Our analysis draws upon a number of perspectives: anthropological, sociological, social psychological and behavior analytic. These distinctions are followed by further elaboration on the functions rumor and gossip may serve in ambiguous circumstances since environmental ambiguity seems to be one of the primary factors that participate in the development and maintenance of gossip and rumor. Finally, we address the significance of the analysis of gossip and rumor in organizations and conclude with a discussion of the contribution that behavior analysis can make with regard to the analysis of such phenomena.     

Communicating with the Public About Marauding Terrorist Firearms Attacks: Results from a Survey Experiment on Factors Influencing Intention to “Run,Hide, Tell” in the United Kingdom and Denmark

Effective risk communication is an integral part of responding to terrorism, but until recently, there has been very little pre‐event communication in a European context to provide advice to the public on how to protect themselves during an attack. Following terrorist attacks involving mass shootings in Paris, France, in November 2015, the U.K. National Police Chiefs’ Council released a Stay Safe film and leaflet that advises the public to “run,” “hide,” and “tell” in the event of a firearms or weapons attack. However, other countries, including Denmark, do not provide preparedness information of this kind, in large part because of concern about scaring the public. In this survey experiment, 3,003 U.K. and Danish participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: no information, a leaflet intervention, and a film intervention to examine the impact of “Run, Hide, Tell” advice on perceptions about terrorism, the security services, and intended responses to a hypothetical terrorist firearms attack. Results demonstrate important benefits of pre‐event communication in relation to enhancing trust, encouraging protective health behaviors, and discouraging potentially dangerous actions. However, these findings also suggest that future communications should address perceived response costs and target specific problem behaviors. Cross‐national similarities in response suggest this advice is suitable for adaptation in other countries.     

基于双层规划的反恐应急设施选址模型及算法

恐怖袭击常以人流密集地区的平民作为袭击目标，并存在突发性和随机性等特点，极易造成严重的袭击后果。通过反恐应急设施的合理布局可以缩短救援人员和物资的到达时间，从而减轻袭击后果。首先，对反恐应急设施选址问题进行描述，并将其构造为一类离散双层规划模型。其中，上层规划是关于政府选址的0-1规划问题，下层规划则是关于恐怖分子袭击目标选择的0-1规划问题。其次，结合模型和问题的特征设计算法，利用分支定界算法实现上层选址变量的隐枚举，同时通过下层问题的求解来确定上下界并判断是否满足分枝或剪枝的条件。最后，结合南疆地区的交通拓扑网络进行算例分析，结果证明有效的选址方案可以大大降低袭击损失。     

Examining Public Trust in Risk‐Managing Organizations After a Major Disaster

This research investigates the public's trust in risk‐managing organizations after suffering serious damage from a major disaster. It is natural for public trust to decrease in organizations responsible for mitigating the damage. However, what about trust in organizations that address hazards not directly related to the disaster? Based on the results of surveys conducted by a national institute, the Japanese government concluded, in a White Paper on Science and Technology, that the public's trust in scientists declined overall after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. Because scientists play a key role in risk assessment and risk management in most areas, one could predict that trust in risk‐managing organizations overall would decrease after a major disaster. The methodology of that survey, however, had limitations that prevented such conclusions. For this research, two surveys were conducted to measure the public's trust in risk‐managing organizations regarding various hazards, before and after the Tohoku Earthquake (n = 1,192 in 2008 and n = 1,138 in 2012). The results showed that trust decreased in risk‐managing organizations that deal with earthquakes and nuclear accidents, whereas trust levels related to many other hazards, especially in areas not touched by the Tohoku Earthquake, remained steady or even increased. These results reject the assertion that distrust rippled through all risk‐managing organizations. The implications of this research are discussed, with the observation that this result is not necessarily gratifying for risk managers because high trust sometimes reduces public preparedness for disasters.     

Trust,confidence, familiarity,and support for land-based recirculating aquaculture facilities

Surveys in three U.S. localities (n = 523) with proposed or existing land-based aquaculture facilities probed trust's relationship with perceived net benefits and public intentions to cooperate with siting of this novel technology. The trust, confidence, and cooperation (TCC) model posits that shared values shape willingness to be vulnerable to others (trust), while past performance shapes certainty that others will behave as expected (confidence). Trust affects confidence given moral outweighs performance information, possibly varying by familiarity. Other research suggests that trust shapes benefit and risk perceptions, which drive cooperation (defined here by potentially observable behavior: voting on siting, trying to influence government decisions directly or through citizen groups, and buying or eating facility fish). Confirmatory factor analyses suggested that a two-factor model fit the trust/confidence measures better than a one-factor model or a two-factor model without inter-factor correlation, indicating (despite a strong association of trust and confidence) that they are empirically distinct. Path analyses suggested that trust had stronger direct effects on cooperation than did confidence, reflecting the TCC notion that moral information underlying trust judgments is more influential, and stronger indirect effects through benefit-risk judgments. Model fit was better than if the benefit-risk mediator was omitted. Trust in government had a small direct effect on cooperation and confidence, but a large effect on trust in the corporation, and model fit was much worse if any of these paths was omitted. Low familiarity with the project lowered both model fit and trust–confidence association. We discuss implications for risk analysis theory and practice.     

Trust in Risky Messages: The Role of Prior Attitudes

Risk perception researchers have observed a "negativity bias" for hazard-related information. Messages indicating the presence of risk seem to be trusted more than messages indicating the absence of risk, and risk perceptions seem more affected by negative than positive information. Two experiments were conducted to examine alternative explanations of this finding within the area of food additives. Study 1 (N = 235) extended earlier work by (a) unconfounding message valence (positive or negative) from message extremity (definite or null finding) and (b) exploring the role of prior attitudes. Results suggested that negative/risky messages were indeed trusted more even when extremity was taken into account. However, prior attitudes significantly moderated the effect of message valence on trust. Positive messages were distrusted only by those with negative prior attitudes. Study 2 (N = 252), further explored the role of prior attitudes and extended the work by examining reactions to risky messages about a positively viewed additive--a vitamin. The results again found a moderating effect of prior attitudes on message valence. Participants had greater confidence in messages that were more congruent with their prior attitudes, irrespective of valence. Furthermore, positive messages had a greater impact on risk perception than negative messages. These findings suggest that greater trust in negative messages about hazards may be a product of a "confirmatory" rather than a "negativity" bias.     

Trust and Terrorism: Citizen Responses to Anti‐Terrorism Performance History

The “intuitive detection theorists” model of trust posits greater trust for correctly distinguishing danger from safety and an activist response under uncertainty about danger. An American sample evaluated U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) performance after two possible terrorism events in which DHS has the same activist or nonactivist response bias. Outcomes were two successes (bombing prevented or lack of threat accurately foretold), two failures (bombing or DHS action against high school prank leads to student deaths), or a mix. Hindsight empathy (a belief one would have made the same decision) differed across treatments but trust less so; contrary to a similar one‐event experiment in Germany, an active but incorrect response did not raise trust relative to passive incorrect action. Political conservatives were much more trusting and empathetic than liberals, and all ideological groups (including moderates) exhibited little internal variation reflecting experimental conditions. Consistently accurate outcomes rated significantly higher in empathy than either inconsistent results or consistent inaccuracy (the lowest rated); trust exhibited no significant differences. Results in this study show actual (experimentally manipulated) performance being trumped by the interpretive screen of political ideology, but this seemed less the case in the earlier German study, despite its finding of a strong moderating effect of right‐wing authoritarianism. Trust scholars need to attend more to effects of performance history (i.e., a sequence of events) and their limiting factors. More systematic testing of effects of ideology and performance history would enhance future research on trust.     

When Can Scientific Studies Promote Consensus Among Conflicting Stakeholders?

While scientific studies may help conflicting stakeholders come to agreement on a best management option or policy, often they do not. We review the factors affecting trust in the efficacy and objectivity of scientific studies in an analytical‐deliberative process where conflict is present, and show how they may be incorporated in an extension to the traditional Bayesian decision model. The extended framework considers stakeholders who differ in their prior beliefs regarding the probability of possible outcomes (in particular, whether a proposed technology is hazardous), differ in their valuations of these outcomes, and differ in their assessment of the ability of a proposed study to resolve the uncertainty in the outcomes and their hazards—as measured by their perceived false positive and false negative rates for the study. The Bayesian model predicts stakeholder‐specific preposterior probabilities of consensus, as well as pathways for increasing these probabilities, providing important insights into the value of scientific information in an analytic‐deliberative decision process where agreement is sought. It also helps to identify the interactions among perceived risk and benefit allocations, scientific beliefs, and trust in proposed scientific studies when determining whether a consensus can be achieved. The article provides examples to illustrate the method, including an adaptation of a recent decision analysis for managing the health risks of electromagnetic fields from high voltage transmission lines.     

Public Trust in Government Concerning Tobacco Control in Japan

This study investigated public trust and its determinants concerning the government's control of tobacco in Japan. We focused on the two issues of government policies to ban smoking by minors and increase taxes on tobacco. We conducted a questionnaire survey in which respondents were asked to assess their trust in the government, the government's fairness and competency, and their value similarity with the government. One thousand three hundred and ninety-four respondents agreed to participate in the survey out of 2,600 randomly sampled adults over 20 years old from all over Japan. The results of multiple regression analysis confirmed that value similarity is the strongest predictor of public trust in the government. On the affirmatively supported issue of prohibiting smoking among minors, the results further indicated that assessment of competency is a stronger predictor than assessment of fairness. In contrast, assessment of fairness is a stronger predictor than assessment of competency for the still divided issue of increasing tobacco tax. Respondents who had low concern and had not formed clear opinions on the issues showed a weak link between assessment of value similarity and trust. Based on these findings, we considered the implications for the government's implementation of tobacco controls.     

You Have Been Framed! How Antecedents of Information Need Mediate the Effects of Risk Communication Messages

This study investigates the processes that mediate the effects of framing flood risks on people's information needs. Insight into the effects of risk frames is important for developing balanced risk communication that explains both risks and benefits of living near water. The research was inspired by the risk information seeking and processing model and related models. In a web‐based survey, respondents (n = 1,457) were randomly assigned to one of three communication frames or a control frame (experimental conditions). Each frame identically explained flood risk and additionally refined the message by emphasizing climate change, the quality of flood risk management, or the amenities of living near water. We tested the extent to which risk perceptions, trust, and affective responses mediate the framing effects on information need. As expected, the frames on average resulted in higher information need than the control frame. Attempts to lower fear appeal by stressing safety or amenities instead of climate change were marginally successful, a phenomenon that is known as a “negativity bias.” Framing effects were mediated by negative attributes (risk perception and negative affect) but not by positive attributes (trust and positive affect). This finding calls for theoretical refinement. Practically, communication messages will be more effective when they stimulate risk perceptions and evoke negative affect. However, arousal of fear may have unwanted side effects. For instance, fear arousal could lead to lower levels of trust in risk management among citizens. Regular monitoring of citizens’ attitudes is important to prevent extreme levels of distrust or cynicism.     

Determinants of Trust in Industry, Government, and Citizen''s Groups in Japan

The causal structure of the determinants of trust in industry, government, and citizen's groups in Japan was investigated on the basis of Peters et al. (1997). A preliminary survey of the adequacy of the hypotheses proposed by Peters et al. in Japan was made. A set of hypothesized determinants of trust in Japan was proposed based on results of the preliminary survey. Questionnaires concerning perceptions of trust in the organizations and the proposed determinants were sent by mail to residents in the area where environmental risk problems had emerged. The data were analyzed by covariance structure analysis to construct models of trust in industry, government, and citizen's groups. As a result, "openness and honesty," "concern and care," "competence," "people's concern with risks," and "consensual values" were found to be factors directly determining trust. Suggested in particular is that "openness" of an organization is not attained merely by information disclosure, but also by bi-directional communication with the people. Moreover, these models include "consensual values," which do not appear in the model proposed by Peters et al.     

Communicating about the Risks and Benefits of Genetically Modified Foods: The Mediating Role of Trust

Recent research suggests that public attitudes toward emerging technologies are mainly driven by trust in the institutions promoting and regulating these technologies. Alternative views maintain that trust should be seen as a consequence rather than a cause of such attitudes. To test its actual role, direct as well as mediating effects of trust were tested in an attitude change experiment involving 1,405 consumers from Denmark, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. After prior attitudes to genetic modification in food production had been assessed, participants received different information materials (either product-specific information or balanced/general information about genetic modification in food production) and were asked to evaluate different types of genetically modified foods (either beer or yoghurt). The information materials were attributed to different information sources (either an industry association, a consumer organization, or a government source). After completion, perceived risk and perceived benefit were assessed, and participants indicated their trust in the information sources to which the materials had been attributed. Direct and trust-mediated attitude change effects were estimated in a multi-sample structural equation model. The results showed that information provision had little effect on people's attitudes toward genetically modified foods, and that perceptions of information source characteristics contributed very little to attitude change. Furthermore, the type of information strategy adopted had almost no impact on postexperimental attitudes. The extent to which people trusted the information sources appeared to be driven by people's attitudes to genetically modified foods, rather than trust influencing the way that people reacted to the information. Trust was not driving risk perception-rather, attitudes were informing perceptions of the motivation of the source providing the information.     

Vertrauen als Merkmal von Beziehungsqualit?t: Modellentwicklung und explorative Interviews im Kontext sportpsychologischer Betreuung

A model is developed, defining interpersonal trust as the consequence of the individual??s evaluation concerning personal conditions and task conditions of counselling. Regarding evaluation, a situational, contextual, and global orientation is distinguished. Five expert-interviews are presented, aimed to test the structure and applicability of the given model in the practice. Goodwill and esteem for the athlete, both situational and contextual connected, were stressed by the experts as important for trust building so as the attribution of a trustful personality was. The interviewed experts ranked expertness as a factor of lower significance for trust building. Discrepancies between the theoretical model and the experts?? opinion refer to future research and opportunities to optimize counselling.     

The Importance of Multiple Performance Criteria for Understanding Trust in Risk Managers

Effective risk management requires balancing several, sometimes competing, goals, such as protecting public health and ensuring cost control. Research examining public trust of risk managers has largely focused on trust that is unspecified or for a single goal. Yet it can be reasonable to have a high level of trust in one aspect of a target's performance but not another. Two studies involving redevelopment of contaminated land (Study 1) and drinking water standards (Study 2) present preliminary evidence on the value of distinguishing between performance criteria for understanding of trust. Study 1 assessed perceptions of several trust targets (councilors, developers, scientists, residents) on their competence (capacity to achieve goals) and willingness to take action under uncertainty for four criteria. Study 2 assessed competence, willingness, and trust for five criteria regarding a single government agency. In both studies overall trust in each target was significantly better explained by considering perceptions of their performance on multiple criteria than on the single criterion of public health. In Study 1, the influence of criteria also varied plausibly across trust targets (e.g., willingness to act under uncertainty increased trust in developers on cost control and councilors on local economic improvement, but decreased it for both targets on environmental protection). Study 2 showed that explained variance in trust increased with both dimension‐ and trust‐based measures of criteria. Further conceptual and methodological development of the notion of multiple trust criteria could benefit our understanding of stated trust judgments.     

Trust in the Safety of Tourist Destinations: Hard to Gain,Easy to Lose? New Insights on the Asymmetry Principle

According to the asymmetry principle of trust, negative events decrease trust to a much higher extent than positive events increase trust. The study at hand intended to verify whether this notion of asymmetry holds true with respect to trust in the safety of tourist destinations. Thus, in contrast to previous research that analyzed trust asymmetry in the context of involuntary technological risks, the present study evaluates the validity of the asymmetry principle of trust in the context of voluntary tourism risks. The hypothesis that negative or risky information on destination safety (absence of proper safety measures and conditions) has a higher impact on distrust than, conversely, positive or nonrisk information on destination safety (provision of proper safety measures and conditions) has on trust was tested in an online survey ( N = 640). In contrast to the asymmetry pattern found by Slovic (1993) , results of the current work suggest symmetry rather than asymmetry of trust. The presence of proper safety measures and conditions (positive or nonrisk information) was found to have at least the same—and in some cases an even higher—impact on trust than the absence of such measures and conditions (negative or risky information) had on distrust. Findings provide empirical evidence for the thesis that the prevalence of trust asymmetry is dependent on the risk source and demonstrate that trust is symmetric rather than asymmetric in the context of voluntary tourism risks. Furthermore, results imply an influence of positive versus negative expectations as well as of prior trusting relationships on the occurrence of the asymmetry principle.