Continuity and Change in Rural Migration Patterns, 1950–1995*

Abstract During the past several decades, rural America has experienced turbulent demographic change. We examine rural age‐specific migration data for 1950 to 1995 to ascertain whether the numerous economic, social, and technological factors buffeting nonmetropolitan America have altered migration patterns across age groups and types of counties. Both continuity and change are evident in the analysis. We find differentiation in the migration profiles of certain specialized types of rural counties, as well as temporal variability from decade to decade. No clear longitudinal trend in migration patterns is present, however. In fact, an underlying continuity in age‐specific trends has endured through good times and bad.     

Recent Immigrant Settlement in the Nonmetropolitan United States: Evidence from Internal Census Data*

Abstract In the 1990s, studies have documented widespread growth of immigrants in U.S. communities not known as common destinations in the past. This trend has fueled population growth in some nonmetropolitan areas and offset population decline in other areas. In this paper, we examine the implications of recent foreign born in-migration for rural America. Our focus is on a collection of 59 nonmetropolitan counties where growth in foreign born stock offset declines in U.S. native population and resulted in increased local population by 2000. To understand these nonmetropolitan offset counties, we use confidential Census Bureau data that offer us the detailed geography and larger sample size needed to closely examine spatial shifts in the foreign born population, especially those recently arrived. Our findings illustrate dramatic compositional shifts in the populations of these areas, and suggest new demographic complexity in nonmetropolitan areas in the 21^st century.     

What Clean Break?: Education and Nonmetropolitan Migration Patterns, 1989–2004

Abstract Recent data suggest that nonmetropolitan America is experiencing an outmigration trend. Between 1998 and 2004, more people have moved out of nonmetropolitan areas than moved into these areas. This net outmigration trend presents a fundamental challenge to nonmetropol‐itan areas and contradicts the predictions of social scientists who argued that the rural renaissance of the 1970s represented a clean break with earlier patterns of internal migration. Using annual data from the 1989– 2004 rounds of the Current Population Survey March Demographic Supplement, this paper analyzes recent trends in metropolitan/nonmetro‐politan migration. It demonstrates that highly educated nonmetropolitan youth are leading contemporary nonmetropolitan outmigration. Contrary to the clean break theory, this paper argues that economic incentives continue to be relevant to current nonmetropolitan/metropolitan migration patterns.     

Population Redistribution Trends in Nonmetropolitan America, 2010 to 2021☆

Given the turbulent conditions of the early 21st century and the release of data from the 2020 Census, it is an appropriate time to examine contemporary population redistribution trends in nonmetropolitan America. Analysis centers on the major demographic components of population change: migration; and natural increase. The analysis demonstrates that the turbulent economic, social, and now epidemiological conditions of recent years altered traditional demographic trends in nonmetropolitan America. For the first time in history, nonmetropolitan America lost population between 2010 and 2020 because of shifts in migration trends and diminishing natural increase. In contrast, post-censal population estimates suggest that nonmetropolitan population gains exceeded those in metropolitan areas for the first time in 50 years between 2020 and 2021. The recent widespread nonmetropolitan population increases are the result of substantial net migration gains that offset the growing natural decrease fostered by COVID-19. Sustained net migration gains in nonmetro areas provides a demographic lifeline to many counties that would otherwise face depopulation because of accelerating natural decrease. Whether these migration patterns can be sustained remains to be seen.     

Impacts of Return Migration on Rural U.S. Communities

Rural population loss is caused as much by low in‐migration as by high out‐migration, and for geographically disadvantaged nonmetropolitan counties in the United States, return migration plays a crucial role. This research captures impacts of return migrants on population, economy, and society in declining rural U.S. communities using a qualitative, multisited approach. Interviews conducted at high school reunions with rural returnees in their late 20s to late 40s show that the vast majority of returnees brought spouses and children back with them, increasing the short‐term and long‐term population. They also brought back much needed human capital, including education, job skills, and life experiences, and filled professional positions that are often hard to fill in rural communities. Entrepreneurial activities and self‐employment of many return migrants favorably affected rural economies by improving the employment base and expanding available services. Interviews show how decisions to move back were grounded in social relations that promoted civic engagement. While they mainly moved back for their children and their families, return migrants valued involvement in familiar social networks and the opportunities to make a difference in their rural hometowns.     

Nonmetropolitan Population Change in the Mountain West: 1970–1995

Abstract Current research on nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) population change shows that, to date, the 1990s are reminiscent of the 1970s rather than the 1980s. Nonmetro areas, including the Mountain West, are again gaining population through increases in net migration. Over the past several years, subareas within the Mountain West have experienced some of the fastest rates of population growth and economic expansion in the United States. Current growth patterns in the Mountain West are distinct from those in both the 1970s “rural renaissance” and the 1980s “nonmetro contraction” periods. Nonmetro counties in the Mountain West are growing at about the same rate as metropolitan (metro) counties, and although the growth rate is slower now than in the 1970s, more counties are participating in the growth. These findings support earlier research suggesting that nonmetro growth may not be ending.     

Social Disorganization Theory and the Contextual Nature of Crime in Nonmetropolitan Counties*

Abstract This research explores violent and property crime rates in nonmetropolitan counties. It is argued that crime rates are lower in these counties because of higher levels of social integration. We test the hypothesis that predictors of crime from social disorganization theory exert different effects on violent and property crimes at different levels of population change in nonmetropolitan counties. We use a spatial lag regression model to predict the 1989–1991 average violent and property crime rates for these counties, taken from the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR). The results show that a factor‐analyzed index of resource disadvantage (poverty rate, income inequality, unemployment, percent female‐headed households) has different effects on both violent and property crime at different levels of population change in nonmetropolitan counties. Contrary to expectations, we find that resource disadvantage exerts a greater positive effect on both violent and property crimes in nonmetropolitan counties that lost population between 1980 and 1990. Implications for theory and research are discussed.     

The Renewal of Population Loss in the Nonmetropolitan Great Plains

Abstract An analysis of population trends in 293 nonmetropolitan Great Plains counties from 1950 to 1990 reveals that the population turnaround of the 1970s has indeed ended. During the 1980s, 84 percent of these nonmetropolitan counties had total population declines, a proportion greater than any other decade studied. A majority of counties had natural population increase, but such increases were offset by net outmigration as 96 percent of the counties had such losses during the 1980s. The influence of the independent variables on population change shifted from decade to decade. The most important variable in producing positive population trends was the ability of the county to attract retirement migrants.     

Emerging Patterns of Hispanic Residential Segregation: Lessons from Rural and Small‐Town America

The past two decades have ushered in a period of widespread spatial diffusion of Hispanics well beyond traditional metropolitan gateways. This article examines emerging patterns of racial and ethnic residential segregation in new Hispanic destinations over the 1990–2010 period, linking county, place, and block data from the 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial censuses. Our multiscalar analyses of segregation are framed by classical models of immigrant assimilation and alternative models of place stratification. We ask whether Hispanics are integrating spatially with the native population and whether recent demographic and economic processes have eroded or perpetuated racial boundaries in nonmetropolitan areas. We show that Hispanic residential segregation from whites is often exceptionally high and declining slowly in rural counties and communities. New Hispanic destinations, on average, have higher Hispanic segregation levels than established gateway communities. The results also highlight microscale segregation patterns within rural places and in the open countryside (i.e., outside places), a result that is consistent with emerging patterns of “white flight.” Observed estimates of Hispanic‐white segregation across fast‐growing nonmetropolitan counties often hide substantial heterogeneity in residential segregation. Divergent patterns of rural segregation reflect local‐area differences in population dynamics, economic inequality, and the county employment base (using Economic Research Service functional specialization codes). Illustrative maps of Hispanic boom counties highlight spatially uneven patterns of racial diversity. They also provide an empirical basis for our multivariate analyses, which show that divergent patterns of local‐area segregation often reflect spatial variation in employment across different industrial sectors.     

Migration of Retirement‐Age Blacks to Nonmetropolitan Areas in the 1990s

Older blacks migrated to nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) communities in the 1990s to a degree not true of the past. Some of the nonmetro counties that attracted them are well‐known retirement areas also favored by other retirees, mostly whites. Two‐thirds of black retirement counties, however, are areas in the Old South that are not attracting other retirees at a substantial rate, if at all. Although the data indicate significant rates of retirement‐age blacks migrating to 85 nonmetro counties, most migration by older blacks is to metro destinations.