Output Dead-Time in Point Processes

When events of temporal point processes are too close to each other they can be erased by dead-time effects. Among various possible mechanisms of dead-time, the output dead-time is the most important. Dead-time effects modify the statistical properties of point processes and some of these modifications are analyzed in this article. To do so, we note that a point process is defined by the distance between its successive points called life-time which constitutes a discrete time positive signal. The dead-time mechanism is a system which transforms such a signal into another discrete time positive signal. Except in very specific cases this transformation cannot be expressed in closed form. We show, however, that it can be written in a recursive form analogous to the state representation of systems. By using this recursion, various statistical properties of point processes with dead-time are analyzed in computer experiments. In this study, we focus on the probability distribution of the intervals between points and the coincidence function which describes the second-order properties of the point process. For the rare processes where theoretical calculations are possible there is an excellent agreement between experiment and theory.     

A method for computing the autocovariance of renewal processes

In this paper we derive formulae for the autocovariance functions of renewal and renewal reward processes. The derivation is based on a Poissonization technique of a renewal process. The formulae are expressed in the form of Laplace transforms. In some cases we may invert the Laplace transforms analytically, but in general we have to invert them numerically.     

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS IN RENEWAL AND MARKOV-RENEWAL PROCESSES

Sampling procedures using randomized observation-points are suggested for estimating parameters in renewal and Markov renewal models. The usual asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood method are shown to hold. The method we suggest provides a solution to the ML estimation problem in either or both of the following situations: (i) observations on between-event intervals are unavailable, (ii) the interval densities are unknown or difficult to evaluate while their Laplace-Stieltjes transforms are known.     

Tempered Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes

In this article, we introduce tempered Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes (TMLLP). TMLLP is represented as tempered stable subordinator delayed by a gamma process. Its probability density function and Lévy density are obtained in terms of infinite series and Mittag-Leffler function, respectively. Asymptotic forms of the tails and moments are given. A step-by-step procedure of the parameters estimation and simulation of sample paths is given. We also provide main results available for Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes (MLLP) and some extensions which are not available in a collective way in a single article. Our results generalize and complement the results available on Mittag-Leffler distribution and MLLP in several directions. Further, the asymptotic forms of the moments of the first-exit times of the TMLLP are also discussed.     

基于自相关视角的弱平稳过程之间的伪回归分析

随机干扰项之间的未知形式自相关是导致相互独立的弱平稳过程之间伪回归的主要原因.通过理论分析和一系列的蒙特卡罗模拟,揭示了数据过程本身的持久性、样本容量T和随机干扰项自相关之间的内在联系.研究发现随机干扰项往往呈现出与数据过程阶数相同的自相关.进一步研究表明,运用广义差分法和Cochrane- Orcutt迭代法虽然能大大减少伪回归概率,但在有些情况下,即使当样本容量较大时,较高阶的Cochrane- Orcutt迭代法仍然无法避免伪回归的发生.     

Interacting neighbour point processes: Some models for clustering

We introduce a class of spatial point processesinteracting neighbour point (INP) processes, where the density of the process can be written by means of local interactions between a point and subsets of its neighbourhood but where the processes may not be Ripley-Kelly Markov processes with respect to this neighbourhood. We show that the processes are iterated Markov processes defined by Hayat and Gubner (1996). Furthermore, we pay special attention to a subclass of interacting neighbour processes, where the density belongs to the exponential family and all neighbours of a point affect it simultaneously. A simulation study is presented to show that some simple processes of this subclass can produce clustered patterns of great variety. Finally, an empirical example is given.     

Algorithms for Point Processes Analysis

A time point process can be defined either by the statistical properties of the time intervals between successive points or by those of the number of points in arbitrary time intervals. There are mathematical expressions to link up these two points of view, but they are in many cases too complicated to be used in practice. In this article, we present an algorithmic procedure to obtain the number of points of a stationary point process recorded in some time intervals by processing the values of the distances between successive points. We present some results concerning the statistical analysis of these numbers of points and when analytical calculations are possible the experimental results obtained with our algorithms are in excellent agreement with those predicted by the theory. Some properties of point processes in which theoretical calculations are almost impossible are also presented.     

Bayesian Identification of Moving Average Models

This study approaches the Bayesian identification of moving average processes using an approximate likelihood function and a normal gamma prior density. The marginal posterior probability mass function of the model order is developed in a convenient form. Then one may investigate the posterior probabilities over the grid of the order and choose the order with the highest probability to solve the identification problem. A comprehensive simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed procedure and check its adequacy in handling the identification problem. In addition, the proposed Bayesian procedure is compared with some non Bayesian automatic techniques and another Bayesian technique. The numerical results support the adequacy of using the proposed procedure in solving the identification problem of moving average processes.     

Prediction intervals for future Weibull residual data

In reliability theory, risk analysis, renewal processes and actuarial studies, the residual lifetimes data play an important essential role in studying the conditional tail of the lifetime data. In this paper, based on some observed ordered residual Weibull data, we introduce different prediction methods for obtaining prediction intervals (PIs) of future residual lifetimes including likelihood, Wald, moments, parametric bootstrap, and highest conditional methods. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the so obtained PIs and one data analysis is performed for illustration purposes.     

Approximate wavelet-based simulation of long memory processes

In this article, we investigate an algorithm for the fast O(N) and approximate simulation of long memory (LM) processes of length N using the discrete wavelet transform. The algorithm generates stationary processes and is based on the notion that we can improve standard wavelet-based simulation schemes by noting that the decorrelation property of wavelet transforms is not perfect for certain LM process. The method involves the simulation of circular autoregressive process of order one. We demonstrate some of the statistical properties of the processes generated, with some focus on four commonly used LM processes. We compare this simulation method with the white noise wavelet simulation scheme of Percival and Walden [Percival, D. and Walden, A., 2000, Wavelet Methods for Time Series Analysis (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).].     

The Input Evaluation of Generalized Bernoulli Processes for Salary Lines Construction by Means of Continuous Time Generalized Non-Homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes

Salary line forecasting assumes a relevant role in manpower and in pension funds Previously, the authors presented a generalized Bernoulli process, useful for forecasting the evolution of salary lines, taking into account the salary costs, the number of workers at each rank and the probability transitions between the ranks. The problem with applying this model is constructing the probability of transition between the grades. In this article, we will present a model that allows obtaining these probabilities by means of the solution of the evolution equation of a generalization of continuous time non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes.     

First-passage densities of controlled Gaussian processes

Whittle has proved a theorem that gives the optimal control of Gaussian processes in terms of the mathematical expectation of a function of the time and the place where the uncontrolled processes hit the boundary of the stopping region for the first time. In this paper we obtain formulae for the joint probability density function of the first hitting time and place and, in the time-invariant case, for the moment generating function of the first exit time of the optimally controlled processes. Two particular one-dimensional cases are considered.     

Nonparametric Functional Estimation by Asymptotic Regression

Abstract

Nonparametric density estimates are obtained by the method of asymptotic regression (AR) on empirical stochastic processes. Rates of convergence for the density estimator are obtained in various norms. The methodology is applied to density estimation in two inverse problems: deconvolution and Wicksell's corpuscle problem.     

Histogram estimation of radon-nikodym derivatives for strong mixing data

Nonparametric inference for point processes is discussed by way of histograms, which provide a nice tool for the analysis of on-line data. The construction of histograms depends on a sequence of partitions, which we take tc be nonenibedded to allow partitions with sets of equal measure. This presents some theoretical problems, which are addressed with an assumption on the decomposition of second order moments. In another direction, we drop the usual independence assumption on the sample, replacing it by a strong mixing assumption. Under this setting, we study the convergence of the histogram in probability, which depends on approximation conditions between the distributions of random pairs and the product of their marginal distributions, and^almost completely, which is based on the decomposition of the second order moments. This last convergence is stated on two versions according to the assumption of Laplace transforms or the Cramer moment conditions. These are somewhat stronger, but enable us to recover the usual condition on the decrease rate of sets on each partition. In the final section we prove that the finite dimensional distributions converge in distribution to a Gaussian centered vector with a specified covariance.     

Phase-I monitoring of general linear profiles in multistage processes

In this article, the general linear profile-monitoring problem in multistage processes is addressed. An approach based on the U statistic is first proposed to remove the effect of the cascade property in multistage processes. Then, the T² chart and a likelihood ratio test (LRT)-based scheme on the adjusted parameters are constructed for Phase-I monitoring of the parameters of general linear profiles in each stage. Using simulation experiments, the performance of the proposed methods is evaluated and compared in terms of the signal probability for both weak and strong autocorrelations, for processes with two and three stages, as well as for two sample sizes. According to the results, the effect of the cascade property is effectively removed and hence each stage can be monitored independently. In addition, the result shows that the LRT approach provides significantly better results than the T² method and outperforms it under different shift and autocorrelation scenarios. Moreover, the proposed methods perform better when larger sample sizes are used in the process. Two illustrative examples, including a real case and a simulated example, are used to show the applicability of the proposed methods.     

Lifetesting and estimation with arbitrary distribution function

We consider the problem of estimating the life–distribution F from censored lifetimes. The observation scheme is renewal testing over a long time horizon although the results can apply to survival testing with repetitions. We exhibit a product–limit estimator of F which is shown to be consistent and to converge weakly to a GAUSsian process. To do this we first extend these properties of the NELSON-AALEN martingale estimator to the family of PoissoN–type counting processes. Our proof of weak convergence is based on the general functional central limit theorems for semimartingales as developed by .JACOB, SHIRYAYEV and others     

On the estimation of the marginal density of a moving average process

The authors present a new convolution‐type kernel estimator of the marginal density of an MA(1) process with general error distribution. They prove the √n; ‐consistency of the nonparametric estimator and give asymptotic expressions for the mean square and the integrated mean square error of some unobservable version of the estimator. An extension to MA(q) processes is presented in the case of the mean integrated square error. Finally, a simulation study shows the good practical behaviour of the estimator and the strong connection between the estimator and its unobservable version in terms of the choice of the bandwidth.     

Explosion time for some Laplace transforms of the Wishart process

In this article, we focus upon a family of matrix valued stochastic processes and study the problem of determining the smallest time such that their Laplace transforms become infinite. In particular, we concentrate upon the class of Wishart processes, which have proved to be very useful in different applications by their ability in describing non-trivial dependence. Thanks to this remarkable property we are able to explain the behavior of the explosion times for the Laplace transforms of the Wishart process and its time integral in terms of the relative importance of the involved factors and their correlations.     

Divergence-based estimation and testing with misclassified data

The well-known chi-squared goodness-of-fit test for a multinomial distribution is generally biased when the observations are subject to misclassification. In Pardo and Zografos (2000) the problem was considered using a double sampling scheme and ø-divergence test statistics. A new problem appears if the null hypothesis is not simple because it is necessary to give estimators for the unknown parameters. In this paper the minimum ø-divergence estimators are considered and some of their properties are established. The proposed ø-divergence test statistics are obtained by calculating ø-divergences between probability density functions and by replacing parameters by their minimum ø-divergence estimators in the derived expressions. Asymptotic distributions of the new test statistics are also obtained. The testing procedure is illustrated with an example.     

On the Analysis of Quasi-Life Tables

Baxter (1994) defined a quasi-life table in which the data arise from many concurrent, independent, discrete-time renewal processes. The processes are not observed individually, only the total numbers of renewals at each time point are observed. The estimates proposed by Baxter (1994), based on the discrete-time renewal equation, are studied more formally here, and some extensions are made.