Semiparametric ROC surface estimation for continuous diagnostic tests via polytomous logistic regression procedures

In this paper, we propose a semiparametric method of estimating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surfaces for continuous diagnostic tests under density ratio models. Implementation of our method is easy since the usual polytomous logistic regression procedures in many statistical software packages can be employed. A simulated example is provided to facilitate the implementation of our method. Simulation results show that the proposed semiparametric ROC surface estimator is more efficient than the nonparametric counterpart and the parametric counterpart whether the normality assumption of data holds or not. Moreover, some simulation results on the underlying semiparametric distribution function estimators are also reported. In addition, some discussions on the proposed method as well as analysis of a real data set are provided.     

Using logistic regression for semiparametric comparison of population means and variances

Abstract

We propose to compare population means and variances under a semiparametric density ratio model. The proposed method is easy to implement by employing logistic regression procedures in many statistical software, and it often works very well when data are not normal. In this paper, we construct semiparametric estimators of the differences of two population means and variances, and derive their asymptotic distributions. We prove that the proposed semiparametric estimators are asymptotically more efficient than the corresponding non parametric ones. In addition, a simulation study and the analysis of two real data sets are presented. Finally, a short discussion is provided.     

Optimal Composite Markers for Time‐Dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves with Censored Survival Data

Abstract. To increase the predictive abilities of several plasma biomarkers on the coronary artery disease (CAD)‐related vital statuses over time, our research interest mainly focuses on seeking combinations of these biomarkers with the highest time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. An extended generalized linear model (EGLM) with time‐varying coefficients and an unknown bivariate link function is used to characterize the conditional distribution of time to CAD‐related death. Based on censored survival data, two non‐parametric procedures are proposed to estimate the optimal composite markers, linear predictors in the EGLM model. Estimation methods for the classification accuracies of the optimal composite markers are also proposed. In the article we establish theoretical results of the estimators and examine the corresponding finite‐sample properties through a series of simulations with different sample sizes, censoring rates and censoring mechanisms. Our optimization procedures and estimators are further shown to be useful through an application to a prospective cohort study of patients undergoing angiography.     

Bayesian Analysis in Regression Models Using Pseudo-Likelihoods

This article deals with the issue of using a suitable pseudo-likelihood, instead of an integrated likelihood, when performing Bayesian inference about a scalar parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters. The proposed approach has the advantages of avoiding the elicitation on the nuisance parameters and the computation of multidimensional integrals. Moreover, it is particularly useful when it is difficult, or even impractical, to write the full likelihood function.

We focus on Bayesian inference about a scalar regression coefficient in various regression models. First, in the context of non-normal regression-scale models, we give a theroetical result showing that there is no loss of information about the parameter of interest when using a posterior distribution derived from a pseudo-likelihood instead of the correct posterior distribution. Second, we present non trivial applications with high-dimensional, or even infinite-dimensional, nuisance parameters in the context of nonlinear normal heteroscedastic regression models, and of models for binary outcomes and count data, accounting also for possibile overdispersion. In all these situtations, we show that non Bayesian methods for eliminating nuisance parameters can be usefully incorporated into a one-parameter Bayesian analysis.     

A Simulation Based Study for Comparing Tests Associated With Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves

Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and the Area Under Curve (AUC) are widely used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of diagnostic tests. The parametric methods of estimating AUCs are well established while nonparametric methods, such as Wilcoxon's method, lack proper research. This study considered three standard error techniques, namely, Hanley and McNeil, Hanley and Tilaki, and DeLong methods. Several parameters were considered, while measuring the predictor on a binary scale. The normality and type I error rate was violated for Hanley and McNeil's method while asymptotically DeLong's method performed better. Hanley and Tilaki's Jackknife method and DeLong's method performed equally well.     

Semiparametric likelihood-based inference for biased and truncated data when the total sample size is known

Biased and truncated data arise in many practical areas. Many efficient statistical methods have been studied in the literature. This paper discusses likelihood-based inferences for the two types of data in the presence of auxiliary information of known total sample size. It is shown that this information improves inference about the underlying distribution and its parameters in which we are interested. A semiparametric likelihood ratio confidence interval technique is employed. Also some simulation results are reported.     

A simple alternative to the likelihood ratio test in a logistic discrimination problem

We consider the problem of hypothesis-testing under a logistic model with two dichotomous independent variables. In particular, we consider the case in which the coefficients β₁, and β₂ of these variables are known on an a priori basis to not be of opposite sign. For this situation we show that there exists a simple nonparametric altenative to the likelihood ratio test for testing H₀: β₁ = β₂ = 0 VS.H₁ at least one β₁ = 0. We find the asympotic relative efficiency of this test and show that it exceeds 0.90 under a wide range of conditions. We also given an example.     

Regression Analysis with Covariates Missing at Random: A Piece-wise Nonparametric Model for Missing Covariates

Statistical analysis for the regression model f _β(y | x, z) with missing values in the covariate vector X requires modeling of the covariate distribution g(x | z). Likelihood methods, including Ibrahim (1990 Ibrahim , J. G. ( 1990 ). Incomplete data in generalized linear models . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 85 : 765 – 769 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Chen (2004 Chen , H. Y. (2004). Nonparametric and semiparametric models for missing covariates in parametric regression. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99:1176–1189.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and Zhao (2005 Zhao , Y. ( 2005 ). Design and Efficient Estimation in Regression Analysis with Missing Data in Two-Phase Studies. Ph.D. thesis , University of Waterloo . [Google Scholar]), need either X or Z to be discrete. This article considers extending the likelihood methods to deal with cases where both X and Z may be continuous. We propose modeling the covariate distribution g(x | z) using a piece-wise nonparametric model, then a maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of β can be computed following the maximum likelihood estimating procedure of Chen (2004 Chen , H. Y. (2004). Nonparametric and semiparametric models for missing covariates in parametric regression. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99:1176–1189.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) or Zhao (2005 Zhao , Y. ( 2005 ). Design and Efficient Estimation in Regression Analysis with Missing Data in Two-Phase Studies. Ph.D. thesis , University of Waterloo . [Google Scholar]). The resulting estimation method is easy to implement and the asymptotic properties of the MLE follow under certain conditions. Extensive simulation studies for different models indicate that the proposed method is acceptable for practical implementation. A real data example is used to illustrate the method.     

Semi-empirical pseudo-likelihood for estimating equations in the presence of missing responses

Consider a semiparametric model which parameterizes only the conditional distribution of Y given X, f(y|x,β), and allows the marginal distribution of X to be completely arbitrary. Under the semiparametric model, we develop semi-empirical pseudo-likelihood inference with estimating equation in the presence of missing responses. We define semi-empirical likelihood pseudo-score estimates for both the model parameter and the parameter in the estimating equation simultaneously. Also, we develop semi-empirical pseudo-likelihood ratio inference for them, respectively. A simulation was conducted to evaluate the finite sample properties of the proposed estimators and semi-empirical pseudo-likelihood approach.     

Using the Reversible Jump MCMC Procedure for Identifying and Estimating Univariate TAR Models

One way that has been used for identifying and estimating threshold autoregressive (TAR) models for nonlinear time series follows the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach via the Gibbs sampler. This route has major computational difficulties, specifically, in getting convergence to the parameter distributions. In this article, a new procedure for identifying a TAR model and for estimating its parameters is developed by following the reversible jump MCMC procedure. It is found that the proposed procedure conveys a Markov chain with convergence properties.     

Empirical likelihood ratio-based goodness-of-fit test for the logistic distribution

The logistic distribution has been used to model growth curves in survival analysis and biological studies. In this article, we propose a goodness-of-fit test for the logistic distribution based on the empirical likelihood ratio. The test is constructed based on the methodology introduced by Vexler and Gurevich [17 A. Vexler and G. Gurevich, Empirical likelihood ratios applied to goodness-of-fit tests based on sample entropy, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 54 (2010), pp. 531–545. doi: 10.1016/j.csda.2009.09.025[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]. In order to compute the test statistic, parameters of the distribution are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Power comparisons of the proposed test with some known competing tests are carried out via simulations. Finally, an illustrative example is presented and analyzed.     

Empirical Likelihood Inferences for Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Models with Longitudinal Data

In this article, empirical likelihood inferences for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear models with longitudinal data are investigated. We propose a groupwise empirical likelihood procedure to handle the inter-series dependence of the longitudinal data. By using residual-adjustment, an empirical likelihood ratio function for the nonparametric component is constructed, and a nonparametric version Wilks' phenomenons is proved. Compared with methods based on normal approximations, the empirical likelihood does not require consistent estimators for the asymptotic variance and bias. A simulation study is undertaken to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed confidence regions.     

Empirical likelihood based diagnostics for heteroscedasticity in semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables models

In this paper, we propose an empirical likelihood based diagnostic technique for heteroscedasticity in the semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables models. Under mild conditions, a nonparametric version of Wilk’s theorem is derived. Simulation results reveal that our test performs well in both size and power.     

A Goodness-of-Fit Test for Logistic Regression Models in Stratified Case-Control Studies via Empirical Likelihood

In the literature, there were only a few reports on goodness-of-fit tests on logistic regression models specifically derived for case-control studies. In this article, we propose a goodness-of-fit test for logistic regression models in stratified case-control studies using an empirical likelihood approach. The proposed statistic is an alternative to the statistic G _o , recently proposed by Arbigast and Lin (2005 Arbigast , P. G. , Lin , D. Y. ( 2005 ). Model-checking techniques for stratified case-control studies . Statist. Med. 24 : 229 – 247 . [Google Scholar]). Simulation results show that the proposed statistic is often slightly more powerful than G _o , although their performances are always close to each other. Moreover, implementation of our method is easy since the usual stratified logistic regression procedures in many statistical softwares can be employed. Some asymptotic results and application of the proposed statistic to two real datasets are also presented.     

Orthogonal weighted empirical likelihood-based variable selection for semiparametric instrumental variable models

In this article, we consider the variable selection for a class of semiparametric instrumental variable models. By combining orthogonal weighting technology and empirical likelihood method, we propose an orthogonal weighted empirical likelihood-based variable selection procedure. Under some mild conditions, the consistency and sparsity of the variable selection procedure are studied. Furthermore, some simulation studies and a real data analysis are carried out to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed method.     

A test for the linearity of the nonparametric part of a semiparametric logistic regression model

A semiparametric logistic regression model is proposed in which its nonparametric component is approximated with fixed-knot cubic B-splines. To assess the linearity of the nonparametric component, we construct a penalized likelihood ratio test statistic. When the number of knots is fixed, the null distribution of the test statistic is shown to be asymptotically the distribution of a linear combination of independent chi-squared random variables, each with one degree of freedom. We set the asymptotic null expectation of this test statistic equal to a value to determine the smoothing parameter value. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed test. Its practical use is illustrated with a real-life example.     

Improving an estimator of Hsieh and Turnbull for the binormal ROC curve

The estimator of Hsieh and Turnbull (1996) for the binormal receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is extended from grouped to ungrouped data. The new estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed, and simulation results show that it outperforms Hsieh and Turnbull's original estimator.     

Empirical likelihood inference for a semiparametric hazards regression model

ABSTRACT

We investigated the empirical likelihood inference approach under a general class of semiparametric hazards regression models with survival data subject to right-censoring. An empirical likelihood ratio for the full 2p regression parameters involved in the model is obtained. We showed that it converged weakly to a random variable which could be written as a weighted sum of 2p independent chi-squared variables with one degree of freedom. Using this, we could construct a confidence region for parameters. We also suggested an adjusted version for the preceding statistic, whose limit followed a standard chi-squared distribution with 2p degrees of freedom.     

Semiparametric Inference for the Two‐way Layout Under Order Restrictions

There are many situations in which a researcher would like to analyse data from a two‐way layout. Often, the assumptions of linearity and normality may not hold. To address such situations, we introduce a semiparametric model. The model extends the well‐known density ratio model from the one‐way to the two‐way layout and provides a useful framework for semiparametric analysis of variance type problems under order restrictions. In particular, the likelihood ratio order is emphasized. The model enables highly efficient inference without resorting to fully parametric assumptions or the use of transformations. Estimation and testing procedures under order restrictions are developed and investigated in detail. It is shown that the model is robust to misspecification, and several simulations suggest that it performs well in practice. The methodology is illustrated using two data examples; in the first, the response variable is discrete, whereas in the second, it is continuous.     

Empirical Likelihood for the Additive Hazards Model with Current Status Data

We investigate empirical likelihood for the additive hazards model with current status data. An empirical log-likelihood ratio for a vector or subvector of regression parameters is defined and its limiting distribution is shown to be a standard chi-squared distribution. The proposed inference procedure enables us to make empirical likelihood-based inference for the regression parameters. Finite sample performance of the proposed method is assessed in simulation studies to compare with that of a normal approximation method, it shows that the empirical likelihood method provides more accurate inference than the normal approximation method. A real data example is used for illustration.