Unbiased tests for some one-sided testing problems

Unbiased tests are found for various testing problems. In the first model considered we test homogeneity of k + 1 independent one-parameter exponential family populations vs. the tree-top ordering alternative. The tree-top alternative is appropriate for one-sided comparisons for treatments with a control. In the next set of models normality is assumed. In one such model k independent populations have different unknown means but have an unknown common variance. An independent estimate of the variance exists. We test homogeneity of means against the alternative of no homogeneity. We also consider the alternative of an ordering of the means as well as the tree-top ordering. The final model considered is when we take a random sample from a multivariate normal population with unknown mean vector and an unknown covariance matrix of the intraclass type. We test the hypothesis that the mean vector is the zero vector against the one-sided alternative that each mean is nonnegative (with at least one positive).     

One-sided range test for testing against an ordered alternative under heteroscedasticity

In a one-way fixed effects analysis of variance model, when normal variances are unknown and possibly unequal, a one-sided range test for testing the null hypothesis H ₀ : μ ₁ = … = μ_k against an ordered alternative H_a : μ ₁ ≤ … ≤ μ_k by a single-stage and a two-stage procedure, respectively, is proposed. The critical values under H ₀ and the power under a specific alternative are calculated. Relation between the one-stage and the two-stage test procedures is discussed. A numerical example to illustrate these procedures is given.     

THE COVERAGE PROBABILITY OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN 2r FACTORIAL EXPERIMENTS AFTER PRELIMINARY HYPOTHESIS TESTING

We consider a 2^r factorial experiment with at least two replicates. Our aim is to find a confidence interval for θ, a specified linear combination of the regression parameters (for the model written as a regression, with factor levels coded as ?1 and 1). We suppose that preliminary hypothesis tests are carried out sequentially, beginning with the rth‐order interaction. After these preliminary hypothesis tests, a confidence interval for θ with nominal coverage 1 ?α is constructed under the assumption that the selected model had been given to us a priori. We describe a new efficient Monte Carlo method, which employs conditioning for variance reduction, for estimating the minimum coverage probability of the resulting confidence interval. The application of this method is demonstrated in the context of a 2³ factorial experiment with two replicates and a particular contrast θ of interest. The preliminary hypothesis tests consist of the following two‐step procedure. We first test the null hypothesis that the third‐order interaction is zero against the alternative hypothesis that it is non‐zero. If this null hypothesis is accepted, we assume that this interaction is zero and proceed to the second step; otherwise, we stop. In the second step, for each of the second‐order interactions we test the null hypothesis that the interaction is zero against the alternative hypothesis that it is non‐zero. If this null hypothesis is accepted, we assume that this interaction is zero. The resulting confidence interval, with nominal coverage probability 0.95, has a minimum coverage probability that is, to a good approximation, 0.464. This shows that this confidence interval is completely inadequate.     

BAHADUR SLOPES FOR COMPARISONS OF TESTS BASED ON RESAMPLING

Let X₁,…, X_n be random variables symmetric about θ from a common unknown distribution F_θ(x) =F(x–θ). To test the null hypothesis H₀:θ= 0 against the alternative H₁:θ > 0, permutation tests can be used at the cost of computational difficulties. This paper investigates alternative tests that are computationally simpler, notably some bootstrap tests which are compared with permutation tests. Of these the symmetrical bootstrap-f test competes very favourably with the permutation test in terms of Bahadur asymptotic efficiency, so it is a very attractive alternative.     

Further Evidence on the Great Crash,the Oil-Price Shock,and the Unit-Root Hypothesis

Recently, Perron has carried out tests of the unit-root hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis of trend stationarity with a break in the trend occurring at the Great Crash of 1929 or at the 1973 oil-price shock. His analysis covers the Nelson–Plosser macroeconomic data series as well as a postwar quarterly real gross national product (GNP) series. His tests reject the unit-root null hypothesis for most of the series. This article takes issue with the assumption used by Perron that the Great Crash and the oil-price shock can be treated as exogenous events. A variation of Perron's test is considered in which the breakpoint is estimated rather than fixed. We argue that this test is more appropriate than Perron's because it circumvents the problem of data-mining. The asymptotic distribution of the estimated breakpoint test statistic is determined. The data series considered by Perron are reanalyzed using this test statistic. The empirical results make use of the asymptotics developed for the test statistic as well as extensive finite-sample corrections obtained by simulation. The effect on the empirical results of fat-tailed and temporally dependent innovations is investigated, in brief, by treating the breakpoint as endogenous, we find that there is less evidence against the unit-root hypothesis than Perron finds for many of the data series but stronger evidence against it for several of the series, including the Nelson-Plosser industrial-production, nominal-GNP, and real-GNP series.     

Testing stationarity and trend stationarity against the unit root hypothesis

In this paper we propose a family of relativel simple nonparametrics tests for a unit root in a univariate time series. Almost all the tests proposed in the literature test the unit root hypothesis against the alternative that the time series involved is stationarity or trend stationary. In this paper we take the (trend) stationarity hypothesis as the null and the unit root hypothesis as the alternative. The order differnce with most of the tests proposed in the literature is that in all four cases the asymptotic null distribution is of a well-known type, namely standard Cauchy. In the first instance we propose four Cauchy tests of the stationarity hypothesis against the unit root hypothesis. Under H1 these four test statistics involved, divided by the sample size n, converge weakly to a non-central Cauchy distribution, to one, and to the product of two normal variates, respectively. Hence, the absolute values of these test statistics converge in probability to infinity 9at order n). The tests involved are therefore consistent against the unit root hypothesis. Moreover, the small sample performance of these test are compared by Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, we propose two additional Cauchy tests of the trend stationarity hypothesis against the alternative of a unit root with drift.     

Hypotheses testing for a multidimensional parameter of inhomogeneous Poisson processes

We observe a realization of an inhomogeneous Poisson process whose intensity function depends on an unknown multidimensional parameter. We consider the asymptotic behaviour of the Rao score test for a simple null hypothesis against the multilateral alternative. By using the Edgeworth type expansion (under the null hypothesis) for a vector of stochastic integrals with respect to the Poisson process, we refine the (classic) threshold of the test (obtained by the central limit theorem), which improves the first type probability of error. The expansion allows us to describe the power of the test under the local alternative, i.e. a sequence of alternatives, which converge to the null hypothesis with a certain rate. The rates can be different for components of the parameter.     

Model Checks in Inverse Regression Models with Convolution‐Type Operators

Abstract. We consider the problem of testing parametric assumptions in an inverse regression model with a convolution‐type operator. An L ₂ ‐type goodness‐of‐fit test is proposed which compares the distance between a parametric and a non‐parametric estimate of the regression function. Asymptotic normality of the corresponding test statistic is shown under the null hypothesis and under a general non‐parametric alternative with different rates of convergence in both cases. The feasibility of the proposed test is demonstrated by means of a small simulation study. In particular, the power of the test against certain types of alternative is investigated. Finally, an empirical example is provided, in which the proposed methods are applied to the determination of the shape of the luminosity profile of the elliptical galaxy NGC 5017.     

Detecting a Change in the Correlation Coefficient in a Sequence of Bivariate Normal Variables

We consider the problem of testing the hypothesis that the correlation coefficient is stable in a sequence of n observations of independent, bivariate normal random variables against the alternative that the correlation coefficient changes after an unknown point t(t < n). We propose an estimate of the changepoint t and report on power comparisons between the commonly used test for this problem and our proposed test. Some applications to finance are discussed.     

Towards a theory of point optimal testing

This paper puts the case for the inclusion of point optimal tests in the econometrician's repertoire. They do not suit every testing situation but the current evidence, which is reviewed here, indicates that they can have extremely useful Small-sample power properties. As well as being most powerful at a nominated point in the alternative hypothesis parameter space, they may also have optimum power at a number of other points and indeed be uniformly most powerful when such a test exists. Point optimal tests can also be used to trace out the maxemum attainable power envelope for a given testing problem, thus providing a benchmark against which test procedures can be evaluated. In some cases, point optimal tests can be constructed from tests of simple null hypothesis against a simple alternative. For a wide range of models of interst to econometricians, this paper shows how one can check whether a point optimal test can be constructed in this way. When it cannot, one may wish to consider approximately point optimal tests. As an illustration, the approach is applied to the non-nested problem of testing for AR(1) distrubances against MA(1) distrubances in the linear regression model.     

Likelihood Ratio Tests for Dependent Data with Applications to Longitudinal and Functional Data Analysis

This paper introduces a general framework for testing hypotheses about the structure of the mean function of complex functional processes. Important particular cases of the proposed framework are as follows: (1) testing the null hypothesis that the mean of a functional process is parametric against a general alternative modelled by penalized splines; and (2) testing the null hypothesis that the means of two possibly correlated functional processes are equal or differ by only a simple parametric function. A global pseudo‐likelihood ratio test is proposed, and its asymptotic distribution is derived. The size and power properties of the test are confirmed in realistic simulation scenarios. Finite‐sample power results indicate that the proposed test is much more powerful than competing alternatives. Methods are applied to testing the equality between the means of normalized δ‐power of sleep electroencephalograms of subjects with sleep‐disordered breathing and matched controls.     

On testing the bioequivalence of several treatments using the measure of distance

A studentized range test is proposed to test the hypothesis of bioequivalence of normal means in terms of a standardized distance among means. A least favourable configuration (LFC) of means to guarantee the maximum level at a null hypothesis and an LFC of means to guarantee the minimum power at an alternative hypothesis are obtained. This level and power of the test are fully independent of the unknown means and variances. For a given level, the critical value of the test under a null hypothesis can be determined. Furthermore, if the power under an alternative is also required at a given level, then both the critical value and the required sample size for an experiment can be simultaneously determined. In situations where the common population variance is unknown and the bioequivalence is the actual distance between means without standardization, a two-stage sampling procedure can be employed to find these solutions.     

Towards a theory of point optimal testing

This paper puts the case for the inclusion of point optimal tests in the econometrician's repertoire. They do not suit every testing situation but the current evidence, which is reviewed here, indicates that they can have extremely useful Small-sample power properties. As well as being most powerful at a nominated point in the alternative hypothesis parameter space, they may also have optimum power at a number of other points and indeed be uniformly most powerful when such a test exists. Point optimal tests can also be used to trace out the maxemum attainable power envelope for a given testing problem, thus providing a benchmark against which test procedures can be evaluated. In some cases, point optimal tests can be constructed from tests of simple null hypothesis against a simple alternative. For a wide range of models of interst to econometricians, this paper shows how one can check whether a point optimal test can be constructed in this way. When it cannot, one may wish to consider approximately point optimal tests. As an illustration, the approach is applied to the non-nested problem of testing for AR(1) distrubances against MA(1) distrubances in the linear regression model.     

Testing for a change lit the regression matrix of a multivariate linear model

A Bayesian test procedure Is developed to test; the null hypothesis of no change In the regression matrix of a multivariate lin¬ear model against the alternative hypothesis of exactly one change The resulting test is based on the marginal posterior distribution of the change point; To illustrate the test procedure a numerical example using a bivariate regression model is considered.     

Tests of symmetry based on transformed empirical processes

A probability distribution function F is said to be symmetric when 1 ‐ F(x) ‐ F(‐x) = 0 for all x∈ R. Given a sequence of alternatives contiguous to a certain symmetric F₀, the authors are concerned with testing for the null hypothesis of symmetry. The proposed tests are consistent against any nonsymmetric alternative, and their power with respect to the given sequence can easily be optimized. The tests are constructed by means of transformed empirical processes with an adequate selection of the underlying isometry, and the optimum power is obtained by suitably choosing the score functions. The test statistics are very easy to compute and their asymptotic distributions are simple.     

A simple test for comparing regression curves versus one-sided alternatives

In this article we present a simple procedure to test for the null hypothesis of equality of two regression curves versus one-sided alternatives in a general nonparametric and heteroscedastic setup. The test is based on the comparison of the sample averages of the estimated residuals in each regression model under the null hypothesis. The test statistic has asymptotic normal distribution and can detect any local alternative of rate n^-1/2. Some simulations and an application to a data set are included.     

Hypothesis testing in smoothing spline models

Nonparametric regression models are often used to check or suggest a parametric model. Several methods have been proposed to test the hypothesis of a parametric regression function against an alternative smoothing spline model. Some tests such as the locally most powerful (LMP) test by Cox et al. (Cox, D., Koh, E., Wahba, G. and Yandell, B. (1988). Testing the (parametric) null model hypothesis in (semiparametric) partial and generalized spline models. Ann. Stat., 16, 113–119.), the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) ratio test and the generalized cross validation (GCV) test by Wahba (Wahba, G. (1990). Spline models for observational data. CBMS-NSF Regional Conference Series in Applied Mathematics, SIAM.) were developed from the corresponding Bayesian models. Their frequentist properties have not been studied. We conduct simulations to evaluate and compare finite sample performances. Simulation results show that the performances of these tests depend on the shape of the true function. The LMP and GML tests are more powerful for low frequency functions while the GCV test is more powerful for high frequency functions. For all test statistics, distributions under the null hypothesis are complicated. Computationally intensive Monte Carlo methods can be used to calculate null distributions. We also propose approximations to these null distributions and evaluate their performances by simulations.     

REGRESSION ANALYSIS USING SCRAMBLED RESPONSES

This paper investigates the general linear regression model Y = Xβ+e assuming the dependent variable is observed as a scrambled response using Eichhorn & Hayre's (1983) approach to collecting sensitive personal information. The estimates of the parameters in the model remain unbiased, but the variances of the estimates increase due to scrambling. The Wald test of the null hypothesis H₀: β=β₀, against the alternative hypothesis H_a: β#β₀, is also investigated. Parameter estimates obtained from scrambled responses are compared to those from conventional or direct-question surveys, using simulation. The coverage by nominal 95% confidence intervals is also reported.     

A tool for systematically comparing the power of tests for normality

In this article, we describe a new approach to compare the power of different tests for normality. This approach provides the researcher with a practical tool for evaluating which test at their disposal is the most appropriate for their sampling problem. Using the Johnson systems of distribution, we estimate the power of a test for normality for any mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Using this characterization and an innovative graphical representation, we validate our method by comparing three well-known tests for normality: the Pearson χ² test, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, and the D'Agostino–Pearson K ² test. We obtain such comparison for a broad range of skewness, kurtosis, and sample sizes. We demonstrate that the D'Agostino–Pearson test gives greater power than the others against most of the alternative distributions and at most sample sizes. We also find that the Pearson χ² test gives greater power than Kolmogorov–Smirnov against most of the alternative distributions for sample sizes between 18 and 330.     

TESTS FOR DETECTING MORE NBU-NESS AT A SPECIFIC AGE

This paper proposes a class of non‐parametric test procedures for testing the null hypothesis that two distributions, F and G, are equal versus the alternative hypothesis that F is ‘more NBU (new better than used) at specified age t₀’ than G. Using Hoeffding's two‐sample U‐statistic theorem, it establishes the asymptotic normality of the test statistics and produces a class of asymptotically distribution‐free tests. Pitman asymptotic efficacies of the proposed tests are calculated with respect to the location and shape parameters. A numerical example is provided for illustrative purposes.