Effect of development of rural commodity economy on family planning]

The paper discusses the effects of the changes of rural income level on family planning practice based a survey of 200 rural families in a affluent vegetable producing area of suburban Beijing. In 1984, 99.7% of child birth followed the local birth planning, and 99.1% of families with one child received One Child Certificates. The annual per capita income of the 200 families was 1,092 yuan (1 US$ = 3.7 yuan) in 1984 even higher than the community average. The number of children was negatively associated with the per capita income and per capita consumption except families with 4 children, most of whom have grown up. The rural mechanization in the community has greatly increased the need for skills and technology rather than strong laborers. The provision of community welfare programs and the increased living standard changed the value of children and also changed people's perception in favor of gender equality. Among families with 1 or 2 children, most preferred to have girls. And among families with more children, the preferred family size is smaller than the actual size, which shows a tendency towards favoring a small family. Among 1 child families, 58.7% considered 1 boy and 1 girl to be ideal, and 37.7% was happy with the only child. As the community becomes richer, both the community and individual families increased their investment in education. The spending on education per child was over 2 times as high in 1 child families than the families with more children. The educational status of parents is positively associated with the exception of children's future education and current spending on education. The concern of parents over children's education is an important factor in improving the quality of labor force. Women of higher education status are more acceptable to contraception and family planning policy. The relatively high level of education of the community has been conducive to it fertility decline.     

A survey of fertility in specialized households in Tianjin city with one child in the countryside]

This report addresses the trend among specialized households which has evolved from the assumption that more children meant a happier life to the opinion that a smaller number of children will have a better upbringing. It addresses problems in family planning and ways to improve these problems as well. Since the economic reform which drastically changed the economic system in China (especially in rural areas), the ideas of the people regarding family planning began to change just as their lifestyles were changing. When production had been controlled by communes, everybody received the same income and thus, low incentive resulted in low production. Life was difficult and people still retained the traditional notion that a larger family guaranteed happiness as well as security for their old age. Moreover, women were tied to the home and were economically dependent upon their husbands. The new economic reforms have brought about changes in these attitudes. Women now want less children and a higher quality of life. They have bettered their status in society and now have higher incomes. They are encouraged to work more and children are less of a concern. In one case, a woman was kicked out of her own house by her mother-in-law for giving birth to a girl. Later, the woman purchased the house after raising a protest in the village. She has now gained the respect of her mother-in-law who lives in the house and takes care of the child. Old notions, such as those maintaining that low productivity requires more labor and that a larger income will permit a larger family, are now less accepted. Today's trend focuses more on improvements in family planning through better promotional campaigns and aims to enhance productivity through government assistance.     

A tentative analysis of the effect of income on women's fertility]

The impact of income on women's fertility in China is analyzed using data from official and other published sources. The author notes that there is a clear link between lower fertility and higher income up to a certain point. This point seems to be when family income reaches a level of 300 yan in rural areas. Other factors affecting fertility are also considered, including the national family planning program, female educational level, and female labor force participation.     

The population problems in the countryside of China from the viewpoint of ecological economy]

There is a very close relationship between the population and the economy. The economy is the foundation for the existence and development of the population. Different socioeconomic patterns will determine population rules and population development, they have a strong influence on the social economy and the development of the entire society, and they may control the pace of social and economic development. In the last 30 years, excessive population growth has caused a great many difficulties for Socialist construction, overburdened agriculture, and created an imbalance in agricultural ecology. In order to understand the relationship between the development of the agricultural population and agricultural production, we have to understand to dominant position held by people in an agricultural ecology system. People have to control their own reproduction and match it with the productivity of the agricultural ecology system. Unrestrained population growth in the countryside is the main reason for an imbalance in China's agricultural ecology. Urgent action is needed to control the population growth in the rural areas, to fully utilized the available labor force, to promote the level of agricultural productivity, and to provide more employment opportunities. The final goal is to match China's huge agricultural human resources with its rich resources. investment should be encouraged to increase the wisdom and quality of the agricultural population. Both the quality and quantity of the agricultural labor force should also match development of agricultural productivity. In this way, a normal condition of agricultural ecology may be maintained.     

A brief discussion on tendency and characteristics of transfer of rural labor in the new stage]

Recent trends in the rural labor force in China are analyzed using official data for Hangzhou city. The major change identified and explored is the switch from agriculture to industry.     

A comment on total fertility]

Total fertility rate (TFR) cannot be interpreted as the average number of children a couple will have, as the TFR is influenced by a number of factors. The most important factor is the fertility rate of each individual age group. A decline in these rates brings about a decline in the TFR, but other elements also play a part. Another important factor is the age at which women are getting married. The natural childbearing years run for 35 years, from age 15 through 49, but if women are not permitted to marry before age 23, this period will be reduced to 27 years, which would in turn lower the TFR. The number of children each couple is permitted to bear also has an influence on the TFR; the lower the number of children permitted, the lower the TFR. Another factor which affects the TFR is the number of women who, by law, cannot bear any more children. On a long-term basis, it does not appear that the TFR will drop to 1 by the end of this century; it will fall somewhere between 1 and 2. If it is maintained below 1.5-1.6 after 1985, and continues to gradually decline, China's population will be approximately 12 billion at the end of the 20th/Century, and the aging of the population will not become a serious problem.     

A tentative discussion on population control in Hangzhou and direction of its development]

Hangzhou is a city noted for its scenic beauty. In recent years, developments in industrial and agricultural production, cultural and educational improvements, and various constructions have made Hangzhou a more modernized city, and its population growth has become more rapid. According to one estimate, the number of childbearing women in 1987 will increase by 61% over the 1978 figure. With the mechanic (mobility) growth rate being higher than the natural growth rate, a large population is moving into Hangzhou each year, and the problem of overpopulation is becoming increasingly serious. The supply of newly built residences cannot match the demand, and the living standard is declining. Cultural and educational establishments, health care, and public facilities are unable to catch up with the speed of the population growth. Problems such as unemployment, traffic congestion, and environmental pollution are becoming more serious. In order to cope with the overall situation, the natural growth rate of the urban population should be controlled, and every married couple should be urged to have only 1 child. Satellite cities should be established and developed to match the city's economic development. Another necessary step is the redistribution of existing factories and industries inside the city and of the city's population so as to reduce pollution and noise. The increased labor population should receive better care in order to increase their productivity. Work in gardening and services should be encouraged in order to ease the pressure of unemployment and increase the tourist income.     

A review of the studies on fertility transition in China]

This article is a summary of papers and analysis in recent years on fertility transition and the association between fertility decline and socioeconomic development in China. These papers discuss the causes of fertility decline and the role of family planning programs in demographic transition. The major points are: 1. The demographic transition in China has the same characteristics as in the countries that have completed the transition. The transition had already started in the more developed areas or completed in a few large cities before family planning programs were implemented. 2. The role of family planning programs is to lead and to accelerate the demographic transition, which is the key idea of the "induced fertility transition". 3. The socioeconomic development and family planning programs worked together to affect the fertility decline, however socioeconomic development is the fundamental factor. Without the existence of the socioeconomic development, which included the changes in the function of family, traditional ideas on fertility, increased level of education, the status of women and social security system; the family planning program is not likely to make an impact.     

A brief discussion on the effect of religion and feudal superstitions on China's population growth]

According to Marxism, population development is subject to the determination of production means under certain social and historical conditions, but it is also influenced by ideology, religions, and other factors. China is a country with numerous religions and traditional superstitions. Their impact on China's population growth cannot be underestimated. All religions and feudal superstitions have a role in the increase of the population, and they oppose birth control and abortion. Similarly, traditional feudal concepts of having more children for good fortune, ancestral worship, and filial piety also encouraged early marriage and having more children, and they have contributed to population growth. On the contrary, "individualism" practiced by Buddhist monks and nuns, the "sacred war" believed by Islamic people, and the offering of human sacrifices by many primitive religions, and the murdering of baby twins have served to reduce the population. Most of the religions and feudal superstitions are in favor of increasing the population. The popularity of Buddhism in the past was caused by an oversupply of the labor force. Many farmers became Buddhist monks as a way to earn a living. Since liberation, unhealthy religions and feudal superstitions have been prohibited but their everlasting infulence upon the people cannot be ignored. Uncontrolled population growth is harmful to the nation's economy and improvement of people's livelihood. In family planning work, attention should also be given to the prevention of interference from religions and feudal superstitions in people's ideology.     

A demonstration of the effect of seasonal migration on fertility

Fertility estimates were calculated using own children data from the Mexican migrant town of Guadalupe, Michoacan. In this town, 75 percent of families have a member working in the United States, and wives are often regularly separated from their migrant husbands. Simulations by Menken (1979) and Bongaarts and Potter (1979) suggest that fertility among these women should be depressed. Our results confirmed this hypothesis, showing that the seasonal absence of migrant husbands disrupted both the level and timing of fertility. However, the effect was greater for legal than for illegal migrants, a pattern that stemmed from social factors as well as physical separation. A logistic regression analysis showed that reductions in birth probabilities are greater the longer a couple is separated, and that these reductions are in the range expected from prior simulations.     

A cohort perspective of the effect of unemployment on fertility

This work offers an explanation for the apparent contradiction between empirical work that finds a negative relationship between unemployment and fertility, and theoretical work that emphasizes the lower opportunity cost of childbearing while unemployed. I reconcile these perspectives by distinguishing between two forms of unemployment. The first form is structural unemployment, while the second form is cyclical unemployment, a less permanent component of unemployment that is linked to the economic cycle. I apply a cohort-based model to study both effects over the life cycle using panel data methods applied to a sample of developed countries. My results show that higher levels of structural unemployment decrease fertility, but that the effects of cyclical variations in unemployment depend to a large extent on the age at which they are experienced. Cyclical reductions in the unemployment level mostly result in increases in fertility rates. However, for some age groups, positive variations in the cyclical component of unemployment can also have a positive impact on fertility.     

A tentative discussion on the reproduction of population in China]

Population reproduction is a physiological phenomenon necessary to continue the human race, replacing the older generation with a new one. Population reproduction is also closely related to material production. Both are mutually restricted and supportive of each other. Population reproduction can be divided into 2 types: 1) short life span and rapid generation replacement or high birth rate and high mortality rate, and 2) long life span and slow generation replacement or low birth rate and low mortality rate. Since 1949 China has significantly reduced the mortality rate because of the improvement of our health system and working conditions and the increased living standard. The birth rate, however, still remains high because we are a developing country and our levels of education, science, and technology are quite low. This intermediate stage of low mortality rate but high birth rate also existed in most developed countries for several decades. China's large population and high population growth rate severely inhibit the development of social production and the achievement of the "Four Modernizations." The only way to resolve this contradiction of population reproduction and development of productivity is to control the population growth. Family planning and advocation of 1 child per couple are important strategic tasks in realizing the "Four Modernizations."     

Exploring the influence of precipitation on fertility timing in rural Mexico

The influence of environmental conditions on fertility decision-making is becoming increasingly important in the context of contemporary climate change. Deforestation, land availability, and environmental quality may shape decisions regarding family size, particularly in regions with high levels of natural resource dependence. This research examines the relationship between fertility timing and precipitation in rural Mexico by linking household event-history data to municipal-level precipitation measures. Even after controlling for other factors that impact fertility, in historically dry areas, households are more likely to have a child following above average precipitation, using both 1-year and 2-year prior precipitation measures. Conversely, the relationship between precipitation and fertility timing in humid areas of rural Mexico is not statistically significant. Overall, the findings reveal that the fertility-environment connection is highly context-specific and differs across climate zones in Mexico, but that fertility timing is associated with recent rainfall patterns for households in dry areas of rural Mexico.     

The evolution in China's fertility and an analysis of population development]

There have been numerous projections on China's population at the end of century. Their differences are due to different estimations on the effects of fertility determinants. 2 simulation models have been developed, both from micro and macro levels, to estimate the population at the end of the century on the basis of 6 different fertility patterns. 3 possible options for fertility patterns are discussed. 1.) The 1 child per family option means that every couple has 1 child by the year 1989, the population of China will be 1.2 billion in the year 2000. Even if this is a ideal situation, it would not be a feasible policy, as the pressure from the rural population to have more than 1 child has been increasing in recent years. Nevertheless, it is still possible for urban couples to accept having only 1 child. Therefore, encouraging more people to have 1 child should be held as a basic policy. 2.) Under the option of 2 children per family with 2 or 3 years of spacing, the total population in the year 2000 would be 1.2 - 1.4 billion, which is unacceptable in terms of the development situation. 3.) Following a differential fertility policy towards urban, rural, and minority populations would mean that urban couples would have 1 child, rural couples whose first child is a girl or those who are in special circumstance would have 2 children. Minorities would have 2 or 3 children. AMong the above options, number 3 is more likely to be achieved in view of current socioeconomic, cultural, and demographic factors.     

The recent rise in malay fertility: A new trend or a temporary lull in a fertility transition?

Period fertility rates show a recent rise in the fertility of the Malay population of Peninsular Malaysia that became evident in the late 1970s, after more than fifteen years of slow but steady declines. Detailed analysis of age-parity-specific fertility rates suggests that the recent rise is largely due to a “making up” of lower order births (first, second, and third) that had been postponed by a rapid increase in age at marriage. The period trend in higher order births and cohort trends of cumulative fertility from census data point to a continued reduction in completed Malay fertility. Regional analysis shows several states on the east coast with persistent high fertility, although the revolution in marital postponement is national in scope.     

A further note on the relation between economic development and fertility

The relationship between economic development and fertility has been examined by several scholars. In particular Heer, using data from 41 nations (24 developing and 17 developed) tested three hypotheses. His objective was to reconcile the two prevailing views in this context, namely, that economic development on one hand promotes and on the-other inhibits fertility. However, when we reran Heer’s data separately for the two groups of countries in his list, the pattern of relationships between the variables that he used changed significantly. On this basis, we restricted this study to a further examination of his three hypotheses using data from developing nations only but for two points in time. The evidence from this study seems to support two of the hypotheses in Heer’s study. In other words, whether the analysis of this relationship is restricted to developing nations or includes both developed and developing nations, it remains true that increased economic development implies a decreased illiteracy and a decreased IMR; a decreased illiteracy and IMR are optimal conditions of low fertility. Nonetheless, the data examined here do not seem to resolve the question of whether increased economic development implies a decreased fertility. Accordingly, continued testing of the hypothesis at further points in time with more accurate data is in order.     

Studying Marx's discussion on the position and role of population in social and economic development]

According to Marx and Engels, population is the premise for material life. The difference between man and animal is that man, in order to exist, must have a means of subsistence; thus, his 1st historical activity is to produce these means while at the same time reproduce himself. The function and position of population is to serve as the basis and primary force for all social productive activities. Population further serves as the basis for its own material production. All human relationships and functions, regardless of form or situation, influence material production. Actually, population itself is a kind of productive force as well as consuming force. Population produces material goods which ultimately are used by the population. Hence population is the unification of production and consumption. That is, population's activities consist of production and consumption. According to Marx, accumulated capital regulates population development; at the same time, population development influences the accumulation of capital. Population growth must be the basis for the realization of accumulated capital. In addition, population structure influences the accumulation of capital. Within a single nation, the larger the laboring class, the more prosperous is the country. Among countries, however, this principle is not necessarily so. Marx also believed that raising production rates is the basic way to increase accumulated capital. And, a necessary condition for raising production rates is to raise the quality of population.     

A tentative discussion on the aim of Socialist population production]

The general goals of a Socialist population policy are first discussed. The author examines possible conflicts between society's needs in China and the wishes of individual families concerning the number of children they would like to have. The need to provide old-age security and to improve the quality of a smaller population through education is stressed.     

A socio-psychological analysis of attitudes toward fertility]

This is an introduction to the study of attitudes toward fertility and the psychosocial factors that influence them. Both individual and group attitudes are included. The author also examines how such attitudes change over time.     

Studying the fertility peak in Beijing]

Beijing, China, is experiencing a baby boom in response to 2 periods of large population increase in the mid-1950s and early 1960s. The average number of annual births was 220,000 in the first period and 269,000 in the second period. The causes of the large increase in the population in the first period were an improvement of health conditions which led to a reduction in mortality, immigration flow, and an erroneous population policy. The causes in the second period were recuperative fertility after three years of natural calamity and increased fertility among immigrants. Net migration had an important role in population growth these two periods; it also will have an important impact in future population changes. According to population projections, another baby boom is expected to occur before the end of the end of the century. During the up-coming baby boom period, 1.54 million births are expected, 190,000 per annum. The average increase in population size is expected to 127,000 per year. In the peak year, it may be around 200,000. Thanks to the family planning (FP) program the occurrence of the third baby boom in Beijing has been postponed and the duration will be shortened. From 1972 to 1982, 2.57 million births was averted due to FP, which drastically reduced pressure on the demand for resources and on the momentum of the next baby boom. Another baby booms is not expected during the early half of the 21st century, although an elevated birth rate within the range of normal fluctuation is predicted. The projection was based on the assumption of restricted migration and the enforcement of the FP program. The realization of the projected population will depend on deferred marriage, deferred child-bearing, prolonged birth spacing, the prevention of high parity fertility, the maintenance of the current population policy, and control over the reproductive behavior of the new migrant population.