A behavioral model of the demand for consumer durables

It is argued that models of the demand for consumer durables would be strengthened by the introduction of a behavioral element reflecting the nature of the decision making process within the individual household. A possible behavioural model is described. It is suggested that this would consist of the following elements: general economic confidence of the consumer (derived from personal expectations and attitudes to the general economic situation): general durable purchasing orientation (including willingness to devote resources to durable purchasesand house moving expectations); specific product choice considerations (including orders of acquisition of new durables: the implicit depreciation of existing equipment; perceptions of the characteristics of new products; purchase expectations). Such a model is more extensive than that normally described by others working in this field. The interaction between the different variables is discussed. It is shown that all these elements can be estimated through regular surveys and so the model can be made operational for forecasting purposes. However, it needs to be recognised that there are also unexpected even as which will affect the outcome in individual circumstances and the nature of these is also considered.     

Psychophysical laws in risk theory

In this article specific hypotheses on the shape of a rational agent's risk preference function are derived from psychophysical laws. Weber's law is used to establish the hypothesis of constant relative risk aversion for a myopic expected-utility maximizer. Weber's law. Fechner's law and a modified version of Koopmans' preference functional are shown to generate a family of multiperiod preference functionals which are either of an additive logarithmic or a multiplicative Cobb-DougIas type. This family has very appealing implications in a world of stochastic constant returns to scale. For the actual decision the multiperiod optimizer exhibits constant relative risk aversion as does the myopic optimizer. However, with the passage of time. the degree of this risk aversion, in general, moves towards unity. Moreover, it is worth noting that the agent neither has to make the consumption decision simultaneously with the selection of an optimal risk project nor needs any information about the future except his or her own preferences.     

Role of motives and attributes in consumer motion picture choice

The study focuses on consumer motion picture motives and choice criteria. Its purpose can be specified into the following objectives: (1) to examine the motivational basis of cinema attending. (2) to examine the predictive ability of movie motives and consumers' attribute importances in preference regressions of four types of movie, (3) to carry out a motion picture choice analysis by predicting audience membership with discriminant analysis. The data is based on a convinience sample of Finnish consumers (N = 228) attending one of the following types of movie: adventures/ thrillers, human/ social dramas, sex movies, entertainment movies.The results of a group of multivariate analyses (factor analysis, canonical correlation, preference regression, and discriminant analysis) indicate that consumers attending different types of films have distinctly separate motivation bases, as well as attribute importance profiles, underlying their movie choices. Each movie type had a specific preference structure, expressed by the regression coefficients. Finally, the discriminant analysis suggests that the general motive and attribute variables are effective also in predicting motion picture choice. On balance, the results were mutually supportive and exemplify the managerial usefulness of quantitative consumer analysis also in the case of such abstract leisure products as motion pictures.     

The roles of inflation and consumer sentiment in explaining Australian consumption and savings patterns

Qualitative and quantitative measures of inflation, unemployment and consumer sentiment are incorporated into traditional models of the allocation of consumers' income. Quarterly survey data collected by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research are used. Both current and expected levels of variables are considered.Equations are estimated for expenditure on motor vehicles, household durabls and non-durable goods as well as for household saving. The non-traditional variables are found to be significant, although the traditional price and income variables still dominate. In several cases qualitative variables prove to be superior to their quantitative counterparts.     

Revealed versus hidden attributes as determinants of percieved product quality

Consumers' quality perception being interpreted as an overall product evaluation process, attribute importance is introduced as a mediating variable between the quality judgment and informational value of cues. Furthermore, all product attribute being classified into two different categories, revealed vs. hidden attributes, it is hypothesized that extrinsic cues can influence consumers' product evaluation only on the hidden quality attributes but not on the revealed quality attributes.     

Marital relationships and purchasing decisions — to buy or not to buy,that is the question

Wives and husbands from 47 households rated their wellbeing in situations, where they imagined either to buy or not to buy a desired product, with their spouse either agreeing or disagreeing with the purchase. The product was female-specific for wives and male-specific for husbands. For 23 households the product was relatively cheap, for 24 households the subjects imagined to desire an expensive commodity. The approach was similar to Kelley and Thibaut's (1978) analysis of interdependence matrices. The data, in general, support the following hypotheses: (a) When the partner objects the purchase, the utility of the product will outweigh the perceived social costs more for husbands than for wives, especially in male-dominated families; (b) the wife's wellbeing with purchase decisions will depend more than her husband's wellbeing upon the partner's agreement, especially in male-dominated families, (c) the husband's wellbeing in conflict (buying a product despite the partner's objection) will be positively related with his dominance and vice versa; (d) mutual appraisal of situations will correspond higher in happy than in unhappy couples.The results are discussed with respect to differences in male and female strategies to cope with authority and social emotions in buying decisions. Shortcomings of economic theories on determinants of family consumer decisions are pointed out.     

The operation was a success but the patient died: A critique of “the implementation and evaluation of a problem-solving training program for adolescents”

This critique examines George S. Tellado's account of his evaluation of a problem-solving program for adolescents in a public junior high school in Pennsylvania. The program was apparently successful (i.e., it was shown by the evaluation to improve students' problem-solving capacities), and the evaluation was, for the most part, technically sound, but the program did not survive. This critique suggests that by examining the problem-solving program as an organizational change intervention, several problems can be uncovered regarding the program's design, implementation, evaluation, and institutionalization. In particular, it appears that the school system's staff did not have sufficient ownership of the program to understand it or to wish to carry it on after the program's originator and evaluator were no longer present. This article addresses these problems in detail and recommends techniques from the field of organizational change consultation to increase the likelihood that such programs will live on into the future.     

Marital status and psychological well-being: An individual-environment congruence perspective

The role of the individual's relationship to his environment has achieved central prominence in social science theory, but has not yet been adequately represented and measured through numerical methods. A variety of multivariate regression techniques have been proposed to incorporate individual and environmental level measures in a single regression equation. This article presents a special case of a contextual analysis model in which two sets of predictor variables are statistically treated to create a third set of predictor variables called congruence measures. Each of the three sets of predictor variables are then run separately in multiple regression equations against a fourth set of individual level outcome variables to determine the relative gain in predictive power of the congruence measures over the individual and environmental level variables when they are run alone. Martital status variables are used to illustrate and examine the model.     

Does structure find structure?: A critique of Burt's use of distance as a measure of structural equivalence

This paper examines some of the assumptions and consequences of the use of distance as a measure of structural equivalence, as implemented in Burt's STRUCTURE program. We take the general perspective that for a measure to be useful it should not confound separate types of information which are theoretically and mathematically independent. The mathematical relationship between distance and the Pearson product moment correlation coefficient is presented. We show that use of distance as a measure of similarity without proper attention to appropriate standardization procedures confounds information on differences between means and differences between variances with information on the similarity of the patterns between pairs of individuals, e.g. correlation. A detailed examination of Burt and Bittner's analysis of Bernard, Killworth and Sailer's Ham radio operator group is presented, and it is demonstrated that use of distance as a measure of structural equivalence led to nonsensical results.     

Ethical problems in program evaluation: Advice for trapped evaluators

This paper argues that ethical problems in program evaluation are increased when conflicting or incompatible evaluation models are applied concurrently. Three models are illustrated: an Amelioration Model, generating better information for a program's own decision makers; an Accountability Model, focusing on public data disclosure and citizen participation in evaluation; and an Advocacy Model, in which the evaluation is designed to advance the program's interests in the competition for resources. Ethical problems inherent in each model, and arising from combining models are presented, along with case examples and discussion. The authors suggest several directions that program evaluators can consider to reduce their vulnerability to ethical problems.     

The use of evaluation models for decision making: Application to the community anti-crime program

Evaluations are typically designed to provide useful information, including measures of program effectiveness. Although this information is intended to be useful, the general literature on evaluations suggests that instances in which evaluations are explicitly used for decision making are rare. This article discusses the use of decision-theoretic evaluation models, and their applicability in practice as well as in principle. A case study is presented from the evaluation of LEAA's Community Anti-Crime Program, in which a decision analysis based on a decision-theoretic evaluation model influenced a programmatic decision which arose during the conduct of the evaluation.     

The GOAT1 effects impact upon educational R and D

The GOAT (Goodbye To All That) Effect is introduced as a special research and evaluation “outcome” effect characterizing decision-making unduly influenced by abandoning “write-off” tendencies, especially in the face of mounting problems. GOAT behavior can enter into educational decision-making all too easily because it finds a congenial atmosphere in education's habit of fluctuating with the latest trends and vogues and because it can use the prevailing systems analysis approach in much of educational management and evaluation as a blind. The “gradual refinement” approach offers an antidote to the GOAT Effect primarily because it is a fundamentally different approach from systems analysis and directly opposes the faddish orientation of current education.     

The structure of consumer confidence in four EEC countries

This paper reports an exploration of the structure of consumer confidence in four of the countries participating in the EEC harmonized consumer attitudes surveys. The analysis is based on two EEC surveys in each of the countries concerned and uses the rotated solutions on the first three factors of the data. It was found that the different countries and surveys had similar factor structures which were interpreted as general economic conditions: personal financial circumstances; household durable buying intentions. The position of price expectations and attitudes to saving within these factor structures is also of interest in the interpretation of consumer behaviour.     

A framework for the formation and structure of consumer expectations: Review and propositions

Expectations have been found to have an important impact on decision-making in a wide variety of consumption settings. In this paper, the concept of expectations of product attribute levels and purchase-related outcomes is discussed as an important but largely neglected area in consumer behavior research. Relevant works on the formation of expectations from consumer psychology, economics, and behavioral decision theory are reviewed, a general framework for the formation process is formed, and propositions for a research agenda are suggested.     

Consumer evaluation of community treatment

Development of community programs for offenders requires innovation in program design and evaluation. The Complex Offender Project (COP) provided intensive community treatment, and its clients' opinions were used as a component of its evaluation. Treated clients perceived the same needs for services as did other offenders, but more of them reported receiving the services. Compared to probation, COP was perceived to be more helpful in resolving problems, more continuously helpful, and of helping more to learn useful skills and achieve meaningful goals. The Complex Offender Project provides a model for program development, and the techniques of consumer evaluation are recommended as a means of evaluating such programs.     

Endogenizing consumers' expectations in four major EC countries

This article examines the relationship between consumers' opinions and a number of measurable economic variables. It concludes that consumers' opinions are not easily explained by economic variables only. The implication is that consumer surveys do actually contain original information. helpful in very short-term forecasting. The paper invalidates previous investigations on the basic characteristics of opinion variables.     

Purchase expectations and the demand for consumer durables

This article reviews the use of buying intentions anil purchase expectations data in consumer surveys and forecasts of the likely level of consumer demand. It notes the decline in their use and the disappointing experience where attempts have been made to use such information in time series forecasts. The stronger cross-sectional predictive performance is discussed and it is argued that this is of relevance to researchers and forecasters. Suggestions are made as to ways in which purchase expectations data might he more effectively collected and used in future.     

Measuring the innovation ability of Taiwan's food industry using DEA

The ability of companies to meet consumer expectations depends greatly on their ability to innovate and deliver new products at competitive prices. This research study is designed to determine the key innovation factors of Taiwan's food industry and draws on a questionnaire to collect data about its innovativeness. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) revealed the most and the least innovative products among our sample group. Strategies of how to improve the products’ innovativeness are proposed. Our study contributes to the food industry in Taiwan by determining a set of factors for innovativeness, presenting outstanding examples from the researched industry that can be used as a benchmark by other food companies or as a reference for other industries in other countries. Finally, innovativeness improvement strategies for Taiwan's food industry are proposed, taking company size into consideration.     

Evaluations of the special supplemental program for Women,infants, and children's (WIC's) effectiveness

The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) analyzed the evaluations of the Special Supplemental Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) to determine whether they support assertions that have been made about the program's positive effects for five outcomes. Insufficient evidence was found for making any general or conclusive judgments about WIC's effectiveness overall, but in a limited way, the information does indicate the likelihood that WIC has positive effects in some areas. GAO also assessed problems in the state of evaluation efforts. That the program evaluations do not reveal whether WIC is having the effect intended by the legislation underscores the need to design and implement better studies. Generally speaking, GAO believes that if the lessons learned from past efforts are heeded, it should be possible to produce information on the overall effectiveness of WIC.     

On the formation of inflationary expectations: Some empirical evidence from Finland, 1979–1980

The results of a survey of inflationary expectations executed in 1979–1980 are reported. The respondents form one “informed” and one “uninformed” group. The purpose of the study are: (1) to test standard hypotheses on the formation of inflationary expectations, (2) to study the term structure of those expectations, (3) to study their dispersion among individuals, (4) to investigate the uncertainty in the formation of expectations.The results suggest that the adaptive expectations formation model works best for the uninformed group, while the extrapolative model is more satisfactory for the informed group. The lagged rate of unemployment was found to be a significant explanatory variable as well. Long-run inflationary expectations turned out to be very similar to short-run predictions, although the dispersion among individuals was greater in the former case. The uninformed respondents also expressed expectations with a greater dispersion than the informed respondents. The standard deviation of the expectations was quite stable over the observation period. The proxy used for subjective uncertainty also indicates a high degree of stability.