A robust optimization model for stochastic aggregate production planning

The aggregate production planning (APP) problem considers the medium-term production loading plans subject to certain restrictions such as production capacity and workforce level. It is not uncommon for management to often encounter uncertainty and noisy data, in which the variables or parameters are stochastic. In this paper, a robust optimization model is developed to solve the aggregate production planning problems in an environment of uncertainty in which the production cost, labour cost, inventory cost, and hiring and layoff cost are minimized. By adjusting penalty parameters, decision-makers can determine an optimal medium-term production strategy including production loading plan and workforce level while considering different economic growth scenarios. Numerical results demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed model is realistic for dealing with uncertain economic conditions. The analysis of the tradeoff between solution robustness and model robustness is also presented.     

A multistage approach for production and workforce planning in long-cycle product environments

Aggregate production planning (APP) has been studied extensively for the past two decades. The APP problem, also called production and workforce scheduling, is to determine the optimal workforce and production level in each period of the planning horizon in order to satisfy demand forecasts for these periods. The advantages of the APP are low cost of data collection and computational cost of the running model; the accuracy of data; and, effective managerial understanding of the results. If the product of concern takes longer than one period, it is called a long-cycle product. Examples of long-cycle products are aircraft, ships, buildings and special machines. A detailed model incorporating dynamic productivity and long-cycle products considerations is presented to solve the problem of production and workforce planning. Using a multistage production system approach, a search technique is developed to solve this class of problems where the objective function is linear and some of the constraint coefficients are dynamically nonlinear. The model provides a better solution than an aggregate production planning model, often used to solve these problems.     

基于投产点库存的随机综合生产计划模型研究

以企业基于投产点法的生产与库存控制策略为研究起点,分析了随机需求条件下生产系统服务水平与库存水平的数量关系,并将产品在计划期间的平均库存量引入综合生产计划模型。模型中计划期产量是与产品需求具有相同分布的随机变量,模型的优化目标是通过确定最佳的投产库存量和生产系统服务水平,求得相应的计划期产量区间。提出了模型的计算机辅助求解算法,并采用案例分析验证了模型的有效性。     

Multistage Stochastic Optimization for Production‐Inventory Planning with Intermittent Renewable Energy

A growing number of companies install wind and solar generators in their energy‐intensive facilities to attain low‐carbon manufacturing operations. However, there is a lack of methodological studies on operating large manufacturing facilities with intermittent power. This study presents a multi‐period, production‐inventory planning model in a multi‐plant manufacturing system powered with onsite and grid renewable energy. Our goal is to determine the production quantity, the stock level, and the renewable energy supply in each period such that the aggregate production cost (including energy) is minimized. We tackle this complex decision problem in three steps. First, we present a deterministic planning model to attain the desired green energy penetration level. Next, the deterministic model is extended to a multistage stochastic optimization model taking into account the uncertainties of renewables. Finally, we develop an efficient modified Benders decomposition algorithm to search for the optimal production schedule using a scenario tree. Numerical experiments are carried out to verify and validate the model integrity, and the potential of realizing high‐level renewables penetration in large manufacturing system is discussed and justified.     

A Production–Inventory Model for a Push–Pull Manufacturing System with Capacity and Service Level Constraints

We study a hybrid push–pull production system with a two‐stage manufacturing process, which builds and stocks tested components for just‐in‐time configuration of the final product when a specific customer order is received. The first production stage (fabrication) is a push process where parts are replenished, tested, and assembled into components according to product‐level build plans. The component inventory is kept in stock ready for the final assembly of the end products. The second production stage (fulfillment) is a pull‐based assemble‐to‐order process where the final assembly process is initiated when a customer order is received and no finished goods inventory is kept for end products. One important planning issue is to find the right trade‐off between capacity utilization and inventory cost reduction that strives to meet the quarter‐end peak demand. We present a nonlinear optimization model to minimize the total inventory cost subject to the service level constraints and the production capacity constraints. This results in a convex program with linear constraints. An efficient algorithm using decomposition is developed for solving the nonlinear optimization problem. Numerical results are presented to show the performance improvements achieved by the optimized solutions along with managerial insights provided.     

Application of interactive possibilistic linear programming to aggregate production planning with multiple imprecise objectives

Aggregate production planning (APP) addresses matching supply to forecast demand, with varying customer orders over the intermediate planning horizon. In real-world APP problems, input data and related parameters are commonly imprecise because information is incomplete or unavailable, and the decision maker (DM) must simultaneously consider conflicting objectives. This study develops an interactive possibilistic linear programming (i-PLP) approach to solve multi-product and multi-time period APP problems with multiple imprecise objectives and cost coefficients by triangular possibility distributions in uncertain environments. The imprecise multi-objective APP model designed here seeks to minimise total production costs and changes in work-force level with reference to imprecise demand, cost coefficients, available resources and capacity. Additionally, the proposed i-PLP approach provides a systematic framework that helps the decision-making process to solve fuzzy multi-objective APP problems, enabling a DM to interactively modify the imprecise data and parameters until a set of satisfactory solutions is derived. An industrial case demonstrates the feasibility of applying the proposed approach to a practical multi-objective APP problem.     

A simulation testing and analysis of aggregate production planning strategies

In this study, a hybrid discrete event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD) methodology is applied to model and simulate aggregate production planning (APP) problem for the first time. DES is used to simulate operational-level and shop-floor activities incorporated into APP and estimate critical time-based control parameters used in SD model of APP and SD is used to simulate APP as a collection of aggregate-level strategic decisions. The main objective of this study is to determine and analyse the effectiveness of APP strategies regarding the Total Profit criterion by developing a hybrid DES–SD simulation model for APP in a real-world manufacturing company. The simulation results demonstrated that the priority of APP strategies with regards to Total Profit criterion is: (1) the pure chase strategy, (2) the modified chase strategy, (3) the pure level strategy, (4) the modified level strategy, (5) the mixed strategy and (6) the demand management strategy, respectively. The APP system is first simulated under mixed strategy (basic scenario) conditions to include all APP capacity and demand options in constructed SD simulation model to show a comprehensive view of APP components and their interdependent interactions. Then, the obtained results will be used as Total Profit measure to compare with system's performance under some experimental scenarios applying different APP strategies.     

Multi-site aggregate production planning with multiple objectives: A goal programming approach

This paper addresses the problem of aggregate production planning (APP) for a multinational lingerie company in Hong Kong. The multi-site production planning problem considers the production loading plans among manufacturing factories subject to certain restrictions, such as production import/export quotas imposed by regulatory requirements of different nations, the use of manufacturing factories/locations with regard to customers' preferences, as well as production capacity, workforce level, storage space and resource conditions of the factories. In this paper, a multi-objective model is developed to solve the production planning problems, in which the profit is maximized but production penalties resulting from going over/under quotas and the change in workforce level are minimized. To enhance the practical implications of the proposed model, different managerial production loading plans are evaluated according to changes in future policy and situation. Numerical results demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the developed model.     

A MODEL-BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR SCHEDULING LUMBER DRYING OPERATIONS

Raw lumber must be dried to a specified level of moisture content before it can be used to make furniture. This paper deals with a model-based decision support system (DSS) for a local furniture manufacturing company to assist its management in scheduling lumber drying operations. In addition to buying ready-to-use dried lumber from vendors at a premium, the company processes raw lumber in house using two production process that require various lengths of processing time in predryers and dry-kilns. Given the demand for various types of dried lumber over a specified planning horizon, the processing times and costs for each production process, technological restrictions, and management policies, the problem of interest is to satisfy the demand at a minimum cost. The DSS incorporates the mathematical formulation of this problem, is user friendly, maintains model and data independence, and generates the necessary reports, including loading and unloading schedules for the equipment.     

PRODUCTION SCHEDULING OF CONTINUOUS FLOW LINES: MULTIPLE PRODUCTS WITH SETUP TIMES AND COSTS

The problem of production planning and setup scheduling of multiple products on a single facility is studied in this paper. The facility can only produce one product at a time. A setup is required when the production switches from one type of product to another. Both setup times and setup costs are considered. The objective is to determine the setup schedule and production rate for each product that minimize the average total costs, which include the inventory, backlog, and setup costs. Under the assumption of a constant production rate, we obtain the optimal cyclic rotation schedule for the multiple products system. Besides the decision variables studied in the classical economic lot scheduling problem (ELSP), the production rate is also a decision variable in our model. We prove that our solutions improve the results of the classical ELSP.     

Decentralized planning with an interdependent marketing-production system

An interdependent marketing-production planning model based on control theory is described. The interdependent model is a composition of the Vidale-Wolfe model relating advertising rates to sales rates, and the Holt, Modigliani, Muth & Simon (HMMS) production inventory planning model. An overall optimal marketing-production plan is identified using the interdependent model. This overall optimal plan (resulting from centralized planning) is then used as a reference point to measure the effectiveness of decentralized planning approaches. It is found that in some cases almost no coordination is necessary, in some cases the use of a transfer price leads to good decentralized planning, and in other cases centralized planning must be employed to achieve good results. Several examples are presented to illustrate the cases in which decentralized planning does and does not work well.     

Marginal analysis production planning

A forward looking with backward recourse production planning heuristic is developed using marginal analysis. In the search for a minimum cost solution, a set of rules derived by Kunreuther and Morton for determining planning horizons is employed. It is shown that the logic of the heuristic is similar to several dynamic lot-sizing models. The marginal analysis production planning (MAPP) heuristic is computationally more efficient than optimizing approaches and gives results that are generally less than 5% more expensive than the optimal solution. In addition, through the notion of level periods, the heuristic permits the user to easily investigate strategies where the work force size and daily production rate remain constant for a specified number of periods.     

A possibilistic aggregate production planning model for brass casting industry

This article discusses a possibilistic aggregate production planning (APP) model for blending problem in a brass factory; the problem computing optimal amounts of raw materials for the total production of several types of brass in a planning period. The model basically has a multi-blend model formulation in which demand quantities, percentages of the ingredient in some raw materials, cost coefficients, minimum and maximum procurement amounts are all imprecise and have triangular possibility distributions. A mathematical model and a solution algorithm are proposed for solving this model. In the proposed model, the Lai and Hwang's fuzzy ranking concept is relaxed by using ‘Either-or’ constraints. An application of the brass casting APP model to a brass factory demonstrates that the proposed model successfully solves the multi-blend problem for brass casting and determines the optimal raw material purchasing policies.     

A Multiperiod Audit Staff Planning Model Using Multiple Objectives: Development and Evaluation*

The audit staff planning problem, a specific type of manpower planning problem, has been modeled using goal programming and, more recently, multiple objective linear programming. Prior studies developed single-period models and did not go beyond the model building stage. This study develops a multiperiod audit staff planning model and evaluates the model using a test application involving actual decision makers (partners in public accounting firms). The multiperiod model includes seven objectives to be optimized: profit (to be maximized), late completion of work, work declined, staff augmentation, staff reduction, underutilization of the work force, and shortfall in meeting professional development targets (all to be minimized). Over a four-quarter planning horizon with one “busy season,” the model is subject to constraints with respect to the projected audit work load, ability to substitute personnel and to perform interim audit work, available staff hours (including overtime limitations), supervisory requirements, and professional development targets. Results of the test application showed that the model was capable of producing a range of values for each objective. The participants were exposed to much of that range when making their decisions. The results also showed that all objectives were important and that participants were consistent in choosing their preferred level of each objective over several runs of the model. These results and the reactions of the participants demonstrate that the model is usable by actual decision makers and has potential for a number of specific applications.     

The Value of Quality Grading in Remanufacturing

In this paper we consider a tactical production‐planning problem for remanufacturing when returns have different quality levels. Remanufacturing cost increases as the quality level decreases, and any unused returns may be salvaged at a value that increases with their quality level. Decision variables include the amount to remanufacture each period for each return quality level and the amount of inventory to carry over for future periods for both returns (unremanufactured), and finished remanufactured products. Our model is grounded with data collected at Pitney‐Bowes from their mailing systems remanufacturing operations. We derive some analytic properties for the optimal solution in the general case, and provide a simple greedy heuristic to computing the optimal solution in the case of deterministic returns and demand. Under mild assumptions, we find that the firm always remanufactures the exact demand in each period. We also study the value of a nominal quality‐grading system in planning production. Based on common industry parameters, we analyze, via a numerical study, the increase in profits observed by the firm if it maintains separate inventories for each quality grade. The results show that a grading system increases profit by an average of 4% over a wide range of parameter values commonly found in the remanufacturing industry; this number increases as the returns volume increases. We also numerically explore the case where there are capacity constraints and find the average improvement of a grading system remains around 4%.     

A Decision Support System for Production/ Distribution Planning in Continuous Manufacturing

This paper presents a decision support system (DSS) for managing production/distribution planning in a continuous manufacturing environment. The vendor has multiple plants and distribution centers (DCs). The trading partners have widely varying independent demand patterns. The DSS is designed for use in a multiproduct environment with overlapping raw materials and processing requirements. The production and distribution lead times at plants may span multiple planning periods. The impact of any manual override of a suggested solution can also be evaluated. The DSS is based on a linear programming model with a rolling horizon and was originally designed for a large process industry. Results of a pilot implementation using actual data are also presented, which show potential for significant savings for the company.     

Decision support system for the batching problems of steelmaking and continuous-casting production

This paper investigates two batching problems for steelmaking and continuous-casting (SCC) production in an integrated iron and steel enterprise. The tasks of the problems are to make the decisions as how to consolidate ordered slabs into charges, and then how to group charges into casts. The effective decisions on these batching problems can help to balance the requirements of materials in downstream production lines, improve the customer satisfaction levels, and reduce production costs (including reduction of open ordered slabs, less slabs quality upgrading, reduction of steel-grade changeovers, and reduction of inefficient utilization of tundishes lives). We first formulate the problems as integer-programming models by consider practical constraints and requirements, and then develop the two heuristic algorithms for the corresponding batching problems. By embedding above models and algorithms, we develop decision support system (DSS) software with interactive planning editor. The DSS has been tested by using practical data set collected from the steelmaking plant in Baosteel which is one of the most advanced iron and steel enterprises in China. Computational experiments demonstrate that the models and algorithms developed can generate the satisfactory solutions when they work together with the planning editor in the DSS.     

Solving the Economic Lot-Scheduling Problem Using the Method of Prime Subperiods

In recent years the reported successes of Japanese production systems, particularly the just-in-time approach to inventory control, has caused managers to focus more of their attention on efficient decision-making procedures for determining production schedules that minimize inventory costs. One such potential area of attention is the economic lot-scheduling problem (ELSP), which occurs in a variety of manufacturing environments where machining operations are prevalent. The economic lot-scheduling problem addresses the determination of lot sizes for N products with constant demand (and cycled through one machine with a given production rate) to minimize setup and inventory costs. The most successful solution approaches to the ELSP have been based on the concept of a basic period that is of sufficient length for the production of all items, even though each item might not be produced during each repetition of the basic period. This paper proposes a heuristic approach to the solution of the ELSP (referred to as the method of prime subperiods), which is an extension of the basic period approaches. The procedure is described and demonstrated via an example and then tested using a set of six example problems previously employed in the literature related to the ELSP. The results indicate as good or superior performance by the proposed method of prime subperiods.     

多品种集约生产计划问题的模糊方法

提出具有模糊需求量和模糊能力约束以及资本水平约束的多品种类集约生产计划问题 的模糊优化模型及模糊解方法. 通过对模糊需求量和模糊等式的描述,提出了模糊需求环境下 生产- 库存平衡方程的两种等价的描述方法, 并给出了模糊等式的实用解释. 建立了具有模 糊需求量和模糊能力约束集约生产计划问题的优化模型FMAPP ,并给出了求解模型的参数规 划方法.     

Optimal inventory cycle counting

The heart of inventory transactions management involves obtaining an accurate count of on-hand inventories employing different procedures. Among such procedures cycle counting is said to provide better inventory record accuracy for financial control and production planning. However, these procedures use rather arbitrary basis for classifying items and for setting the count frequency within each strata. This paper develops a simple optimization model of inventory cycle counting based on traditional stratified sampling theory. Such a model allows the inventory manager to make statistically supported statements regarding inventory record accuracy so as to meet financial control requirements with a minimum of cycle counting effort. A numerical example is included to illustrate the model.