The performance of several statistical tests for seasonality in monthly data

The type I and II error rates of several statistical tests for seasonality in monthly data were investigated through a computer simulation study at two nominal significance levels, α=1% and α=5%. Three models were used for the variation: annual sinusoidal; semi—annual sinusoidal; and a curve which is constant in all but three consecutive months of the year, when it exhibits a constant increase (a “one—pulse” model). The statistical tests are compared in terms of the simulation results. These results may be applied to calculate either the sample size required to detect seasonal variation of fixed amplitude or the probability of detecting seasonal variation of variable amplitude with a fixed sample size. A numerical case study is given     

The robustness, reliabiligy and power of heteroskedasticity tests

Several tests for heteroskedasticity in linear regression models are examined. Asymptoticrobustness to heterokurticity, nonnormality and skewness is discussed. The finite sample eliability of asymptotically valid tests is investigated using Monte Carlo experiments. It is found that asymptotic critical values cannot, in general. be relied upon to give good agreement between nominal and actual finite sample significance levels. The use of the bootstrap overcomes this problem for general approaches that lead to asymptotically pivotal test statistics. Power comparisons are made for bootstrap tests and modified Glejser and Koenker tests are recommended.     

Significance levels and confidence intervals for permutation tests

A computational algorithm is given which calculates exact significance levels of a wide class of permutation tests in the one and two sample problems. This class includes the permutation test based on the means, locally most powerful permutation tests and linear rank tests. When a shift model is assumed confidence intervals can also be obtained. Approximate methods, based on asymptotic expansions, are also presented.     

On group sequential tests for data in unequally sized groups and with unknown variance

We present a method to generalise the scope of application of group sequential tests designed for equally sized groups of normal observations with known variance. Preserving the significance levels against which standardised statistics are compared leads to tests for unequally grouped data which maintain Type I error probabilities to a high degree of accuracy. The same approach can be followed when observations have unknown variance by setting critical values for Studentised statistics at percentiles of the appropriate t-distributions. This significance level approach is equally applicable to group sequential one-sided tests and two-sided tests, possibly with early stopping permitted to accept the null hypothesis. In applications to equivalence testing, tests are required to maintain a specified power, rather than Type I error rate: such tests can be constructed by defining the standardised test statistics used in the significance level approach with respect to appropriately chosen hypotheses.     

Modelling interval data with Normal and Skew-Normal distributions

A parametric modelling for interval data is proposed, assuming a multivariate Normal or Skew-Normal distribution for the midpoints and log-ranges of the interval variables. The intrinsic nature of the interval variables leads to special structures of the variance–covariance matrix, which is represented by five different possible configurations. Maximum likelihood estimation for both models under all considered configurations is studied. The proposed modelling is then considered in the context of analysis of variance and multivariate analysis of variance testing. To access the behaviour of the proposed methodology, a simulation study is performed. The results show that, for medium or large sample sizes, tests have good power and their true significance level approaches nominal levels when the constraints assumed for the model are respected; however, for small samples, sizes close to nominal levels cannot be guaranteed. Applications to Chinese meteorological data in three different regions and to credit card usage variables for different card designations, illustrate the proposed methodology.     

Improved deviance goodness of fit statistics for a gamma regression model

A gamma regression model with an exponential link function for the means Is considered. Moment properties of the deviance statistics based on maximum likelihood and weighted least squares fits are used to define modified deviance statistics which provide alternative global goodness of fit tests. The null distribution properties of the deviances and modified deviances are compared with those of the approximating chi-square distribution and It is shown that the use of the modified deviances gives much better control over the significance levels of the tests.     

Permuiation tesis for k-sample binomial data with comparisons of exact and approximate P-levels

Exact ksample permutation tests for binary data for three commonly encountered hypotheses tests are presented,, The tests are derived both under the population and randomization models . The generating function for the number of cases in the null distribution is obtained, The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are derived . Actual significance levels are computed for the asymptotic test versions , Random sampling of the null distribution is suggested as a superior alternative to the asymptotics and an efficient computer technique for implementing the random sampling is described., finally, some numerical examples are presented and sample size guidelines given for computer implementation of the exact tests.     

Fibre analysis and tangent models

Available methods for deriving tests and confidence regions for multiparameter models seem seriously limited in their feasibility. This paper gives preliminary survey to some developing techniques that use conditioning as a primary device to derive tests and confidence regions. The techniques usefibre analysis which involves the conditional determination of OLS (observed level of significance); the techniques are available initally for models with pivotal quantities and for continuous exponential models. The techniques can then be extended to more general models using the notion of tangent model.     

Exact distribution-free tests for equality of several linear models

Exact tests for the equality of several linear models are developed using permutation techniques. Two cases of the linear model, characterized by either stochastic or nonstochastic predictors, are considered: the linear regression model (LRM) and the general linear model (GLM). A general class of test statistics using the volume of simplexes as the basic unit of analysis is proposed for this problem. The resulting class of statistics is shown to be a natural generalization of the multi-response permutation procedure (MRPP) test statistics which have been shown to comprise many of the statistics used in both parametric and nonparametric analysis of the standard g—sample problem. In the LRM case, exact moments of all orders are derived for the permutation distribution of any test statistic in the general class. Moment-based approximation of significance levels is shown to be computationally feasible in the simple LRM.     

Bayesian tests for unit root and multiple breaks

A Bayesian approach is considered for identifying sources of nonstationarity for models with a unit root and breaks. Different types of multiple breaks are allowed through crash models, changing growth models, and mixed models. All possible nonstationary models are represented by combinations of zero or nonzero parameters associated with time trends, dummy for breaks, or previous levels, for which Bayesian posterior probabilities are computed. Multiple tests based on Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures are implemented. The proposed method is applied to a real data set, the Korean GDP data set, showing a strong evidence for two breaks rather than the usual unit root or one break.     

Rao's score test in spatial econometrics

Rao's score test provides an extremely useful framework for developing diagnostics against hypotheses that reflect cross-sectional or spatial correlation in regression models, a major focus of attention in spatial econometrics. In this paper, a review and assessment is presented of the application of Rao's score test against three broad classes of spatial alternatives: spatial autoregressive and moving average processes, spatial error components and direct representation models. A brief review is presented of the various forms and distinctive characteristics of RS tests against spatial processes. New tests are developed against the alternatives of spatial error components and direct representation models. It is shown that these alternatives do not conform to standard regularity conditions for maximum likelihood estimation. In the case of spatial error components, the RS test does have the standard asymptotic properties, whereas Wald and Likelihood Ratio tests do not. Direct representation models yield a situation where the nuisance parameter is only identified under the alternative, such that a Davies-type approximation to the significance level of the RS test is necessary. The performance of both new RS tests is illustrated in a small number of Monte Carlo simulation experiments.     

Hypothesis Tests for Covariance Analysis Models for Circular Data

We introduce covariance analysis models for circular dependent variables. In addition, we have also developed hypothesis tests to evaluate the significance of the parameters used. One of the tests is an extension of the Watson–Williams test. The tests performances have been evaluated using simulation studies.     

On power and sample size calculations for Wald tests in generalized linear models

A Wald test-based approach for power and sample size calculations has been presented recently for logistic and Poisson regression models using the asymptotic normal distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator, which is applicable to tests of a single parameter. Unlike the previous procedures involving the use of score and likelihood ratio statistics, there is no simple and direct extension of this approach for tests of more than a single parameter. In this article, we present a method for computing sample size and statistical power employing the discrepancy between the noncentral and central chi-square approximations to the distribution of the Wald statistic with unrestricted and restricted parameter estimates, respectively. The distinguishing features of the proposed approach are the accommodation of tests about multiple parameters, the flexibility of covariate configurations and the generality of overall response levels within the framework of generalized linear models. The general procedure is illustrated with some special situations that have motivated this research. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to assess and compare its accuracy with existing approaches under several model specifications and covariate distributions.     

New Developments in Statistical Computing: Short Notices and Reviews of New Program Packages,other Sources of Information,and New Products

Graphs are presented on which the empirical distribution function can be plotted to test the assumption of normality by the Lilliefors test. A second set of graphs is presented for using the Lilliefors test on exponential distributions. The graphs allow for tests at the 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels of significance. Use of these graphs makes it easy for students in a first course in statistics to test normal and exponential distributions without having to unravel the mystery associated with putting together a chi-squared goodness-of-fit test.     

Empirical-distribution-function goodness-of-fit tests for discrete models

We present a simple framework for studying empirical-distribution-function goodness-of-fit tests for discrete models. A key tool is a weak-convergence result for an estimated discrete empirical process, regarded as a random element in some suitable sequence space. Special emphasis is given to the problem of testing for a Poisson model and for the geometric distribution. Simulations show that parametric bootstrap versions of the tests maintain a nominal level of significance very closely even for small samples where reliance upon asymptotic critical values is doubtful.     

Tests for exponentiality

The idea of measuring the departure of data bu a plot of obeserved observations against their expectation has been expeetations has been exploited in this paper to develop tests for exponentiality the tests are for parameter two parameter exponential distribution with complete sample and one parameter exponential distribution with complete sample and one large sample distributions of the test statistics critical points have been computed for different levels of significance and applications of these have been computed for differents levels of significance and applications of these tests have been discussed in case of three data sets.     

On the least favorable configuration in mult1hgmial selection problems

The Modulated Power Law process (MPLP) has been recently used to analyse repairable mechanical units whose failure pattern incorporates both renewal-type behaviour and time trend. In this paper, a Bayes approach is used to develop significance tests for testing for a reduction of the MPLP to simpler models, namely the Gamma Renewal and the Power Law processes, which are special cases of the MPLP model. Furthermore, significance tests to compare the effect of the repair actions on the future reliability or the time trend in two independent MPLP samples are proposed. Large simulation studies have been carried out, both to measure the exact size of the proposed tests and to investigate their power in a largely repeated use of each test. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the proposed procedure.     

Rényi statistics for testing hypotheses in mixed linear regression models

Rényi divergences are used to propose some statistics for testing general hypotheses in mixed linear regression models. The asymptotic distribution of these tests statistics, of the Kullback–Leibler and of the likelihood ratio statistics are provided, assuming that the sample size and the number of levels of the random factors tend to infinity. A simulation study is carried out to analyze and compare the behavior of the proposed tests when the sample size and number of levels are small.     

The likelihood ratio test foe the homogeneity of the variances in a covariance matrix with block compound symmetry

For the problem of testing the homogeneity of the variances in a covariance matrix with a block compound symmetric structure, the likelihood ratio test is derived in this paper, A modification of the test that allows its distribution to be better approximated by the chi-square distribution is also considered, Formulae for calculating approximate sample size and power are derived, Small sample performances of these tests in the case of two dependent bivariate or trivariate normals are compared to each other and to the competing tests by simulating levels of significance and powers, and recommendation is made of the ones that have good performance, The recommended tests are then demonstrated in an illustrative example.