Decision Analysis and Risk Management Decision Making: Issues and Methods

This paper provides an overview of decision analysis and its use in risk management decision making. The paper discusses the distinctive characteristics of decision analysis and compares these characteristics with those of its principal alternative—cost–benefit analysis. The paper also discusses each of the steps in a decision analysis and the strengths and limitations of the method.     

考虑排污权市场价格不确定性的企业生产决策

目前有关不确定情境下排污权交易企业生产决策问题研究通常都是采纳的期望效用理论。针对排污权市场价格不确定性普遍存在的客观事实,重点引入前景理论,考察排污权市场价格不确定情境下的企业生产决策问题。首先通过建立特定排污权市场价格下的生产决策优化模型,提取了企业在产品生产、污染削减、排污权交易等方面决策行为与排污权市场价格之间的关联性;基于此,运用前景理论分析框架,分析、推导了排污权市场价格不确定情境下企业生产决策的价值函数、主观概率与决策权重函数,建立了考虑心理参考点与决策偏好的生产决策模型。结果表明:由于受信息局限、资源禀赋、心理预期、行为偏好等多方面的影响,企业的实际生产决策会系统性地偏离期望最优决策;算例分析也从多个角度清晰刻画了企业面向排污权市场价格不确定性的复杂决策行为,所得结果更贴近现实情景,并充分说明了基于前景理论的模型分析能够更好地描述排污权交易企业的实际生产决策行为。     

Taxonomy of outsourcing decision models

This article proposes a taxonomy of outsourcing decision models. The proposed taxonomy may assist practitioners in their decision-making and researchers in the identification, evaluation and classification of decision models. Further, this article also provides an overview and evaluation of existing outsourcing decision models, and assesses them for their applicability to the outsourcing decision process. In particular, this article finds that the outsourcing decision models proposed in the literature have limitations in their applicability to the outsourcing decision process.     

System dynamics: Portraying bounded rationality

This paper examines the linkages between system dynamics and the Carnegie School in their treatment of human decision making. It is argued that the structure of system dynamics models implicitly assumes bounded rationality in decision making and that recognition of this assumption would aid system dynamicists in model construction and in communication with other social science disciplines. The paper begins by examining Simon's ‘principle of bounded rationality’ which draws attention to the cognitive limitations on the information gathering and processing powers of human decision makers. Forrester's ‘Market Growth Model’ is used to illustrate the central theme that system dynamics models are portrayals of bounded rationality. Close examination of the model formulation reveals decision functions involving simple rules of thumb and limited information content. Finally, there is a discussion of the implications of Carnegie philosophy for system dynamics as it affects communication, model structuring, model analysis and future research.     

Strategic Assessment Model (SAM): A Multiple Criteria Decision Support System for Evaluation of Strategic Alternatives*

The evaluation of strategic alternatives is a particularly difficult task. This difficulty is due to the complexities inherent in the evaluation process and the lack of structured information. The evaluation process must consider a multitude of relevant information from both the internal and external environments of the organization. Various analytical and normative models have helped decision makers utilize large volumes of information in strategic evaluation; however, most of these models have some limitations. We present a multiple criteria decision support system, called strategic assessment model (SAM), that addresses some of the limitations inherent in the existing models. SAM captures the decision maker's beliefs through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes. The environmental forces—decomposed into internal, task, general opportunities, and threats—are used along with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), subjective probabilities, the entropy concept, and utility theory to enhance the decision maker's intuition in evaluating a set of strategic alternatives.     

A generalisation of the Farrell cost efficiency measure applicable to non-fully competitive settings

This paper enhances cost efficiency measurement methods to account for situations where the input prices can depend on negotiation or tend to qualitatively differentiate the resources available at each decision making unit. In these circumstances, there are some shortcomings in the cost efficiency measure described in the data envelopment analysis (DEA) literature. This paper proposes new models and measures for cost efficiency evaluation that overcome the limitations of the existing DEA models. The applicability of the measures developed is illustrated in the context of the analysis of bank branch performance.     

基于灰色关联度求解指标权重的改进方法

针对决策过程中指标权重的确定问题,在分析现有权重确定方法不足的基础上,提出了一种基于灰色关联度求解指标权重的改进方法,并对其性质进行了研究。该方法是对决策者给出的主观权重经验判断矩阵进行充分挖掘,提取出一个公共比较权重数列,并建立一个简易的数学模型,使确定的权重同时反映主观程度和客观程度。算例分析说明了该改进方法的简单性与实用性。     

Multiplicative consistency analysis for interval fuzzy preference relations: A comparative study

To examine the multiplicative consistency of interval fuzzy preference relations (IFPRs), this paper first analyzes the limitations associated with the previous consistency concepts. Accordingly, a new consistency concept is defined that is an extension of the crisp case and overcomes limitations in the previous concepts. Next, a linear programming model to judge the consistency of IFPRs is constructed, and an approach to derive multiplicative consistent IFPRs is introduced. Furthermore, goal-programming models to determine missing values in an incomplete IFPR are constructed that have the highest consistent level with respect to known values. Moreover, a multiplicative consistency and consensus based method for group decision making with IFPRs is developed that can address incomplete and inconsistent cases. Finally, two practical decision-making problems are offered to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the new method, and an analysis of a numerical and theoretical comparison with several related methods is performed.     

DEA target setting approach within the cross efficiency framework

Target setting is an important reason that data envelopment analysis (DEA) is widely applied to analyze efficiency. However, the efficiency overestimation of traditional DEA may affect the rationality of target setting, and even may make this method invalid in target setting. This paper innovatively proposes the definition of cross efficient, and develops two new target setting approaches for individual decision-making unit (DMU) and global optimization to improve the cross efficiency of DMUs in different decision-making situations. Then the influence of decision maker's preference on the improvement direction is discussed, and then these approaches are further extended. This paper solves the limitations of traditional DEA in target setting, and provides different directions to improve cross efficiency for meeting decision makers’ needs. Finally, two examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of these approaches.     

Regression models of behavior for managerial decision making

A principal problem in systems studies concerns the development of models that will be accepted and used by decision makers in organizations. Regression models derived from managers' past behavior offer promise in overcoming this problem for many repetitive types of decisions. Employing a simulated production planning environment, this paper discusses both the potential usefulness and limitations of such models for understanding and improving decision making in practical applications.     

A NEW CLASS OF MODELS FOR THE DISCRIMINANT PROBLEM

Discriminant analysis is relevant to business decision making in a variety of contexts, such as when one decides to make or buy a specified component, fund a venture project, or hire a particular person. Potential applications in artificial intelligence, particularly in the area of pattern recognition, have further underscored the importance of the field. A recent innovation in discriminant analysis is provided by special linear programming (LP) models, which offer attractive alternatives to classical statistical approaches. The scope of application in which discriminant analysis can be advantageously employed is broadened by the flexibility to tailor parameters in the LP approaches to reflect diverse goals and by the power to explore the sensitivity of these parameters. In spite of the promise of the LP formulations, however, limitations to their effectiveness have been uncovered in certain settings. A recent advance involving a normalization construct removes some of the limitations but entails solving the LP model twice (to allow for different signs of a normalization constant) and does not yield equivalent solutions for different rotations of the problem data. This paper introduces a new model and a new class of normalizations that remedy both remaining limitations, making it possible to take advantage of the modeling capabilities of the LP formulations without the attendant shortcomings encountered by earlier investigations. Our development shows by empirical testing and illustrative analysis that the quality of solutions from LP discriminant approaches is more favorable (relative to the classical model) than previously supposed.     

政府奖励机制下闭环供应链的利他关切性决策

考虑政府奖励机制的影响,文章对闭环供应链中的利他关切性决策进行研究。文章首先构建了制造商是否利他关切的两种分散决策和集中决策模型,并求解给出最优回收决策和政府最优奖励决策;然后,对各模型的最优决策进行比较分析,讨论制造商的利他关切对决策的影响。在此基础上,设计“数量折扣联合固定费用-成本共担”契约,对闭环供应链系统进行协调。最后,通过数值算例验证模型结论。研究表明：(1)政府奖励强度的设置存在阈值。只有当奖励强度大于阈值时,奖励机制才有效,才能促进废旧品的回收。(2)制造商的利他关切行为有利于系统获利,但不利于制造商利润的增长,但是这种利他行为扩大了制造商和零售商的谈判空间,有利于协调机制的实施;(3)政府最优奖励强度与WEEE回收价格和价格敏感系数正相关,与利他系数正相关。并且,政府奖励强度的增加有利于“数量折扣联合固定费用-成本共担”契约协调机制的达成。     

A NOTE ON THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG FINENESS,GARBLING, AND SUFFICIENCY FOR THE COMPARISON OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS*

Choice among competing information systems is an important problem for both the providers and users of information. When the attributes of the decision makers and decision problems for which information is produced are unknown or heterogeneous, it is difficult to choose among alternative information sources. Three criteria for such comparisons of information systems are available in the theory of information economics. These criteria may be distinguished by the differing restrictions that they impose on the generality of the studies in which they are used. This note explicates the relationships among these criteria and discusses the various limitations that they impose on generality.     

The Role of Society in Engineering Risk Analysis: A Capabilities-Based Approach

This article proposes a new conceptual framework in engineering risk analysis to account for the net impact of hazards on individuals in a society. It analyzes four limitations of prevailing approaches to risk analysis and suggests a way to overcome them. These limitations are a result of how societal impacts are characteristically accounted for and valued. Prevailing approaches typically focus too narrowly on the consequences of natural or man-made hazards, not accounting for the broader societal impacts of such hazards. Such approaches lack a uniform and consistent metric for accounting for the impact of the nonquantifiable consequences (like psychological trauma or societal impacts) and rely upon implicit and potentially inaccurate value judgments when evaluating risks. To overcome these limitations, we propose an alternative, Capabilities-Based Approach to the treatment of society in risk analysis. A similar approach is currently used by the United Nations to quantitatively measure the degree of development in countries around the world. In a Capabilities-Based Approach, the potential benefits and losses due to a hazard are measured and compared in a uniform way by using individual capabilities (functionings individuals are able, still able, or unable to achieve) as a metric. This Capabilities-Based Approach provides a foundation for identifying and quantifying the broader, complex societal consequences of hazards and is based on explicit, value judgments. The Capabilities-Based Approach can accommodate different methods or techniques for risk determination and for risk evaluation and can be used in assessing risk in diverse types of hazards (natural or man-made) and different magnitudes that range from minor to catastrophic. In addition, implementing a Capabilities-Based Approach contributes to the development of a single standard for public policy decision making, since a Capabilities-Based Approach is already in use in development economics and policy.     

考虑背景风险的项目投资决策

在项目投资过程中不但面临项目风险,同时还面临背景风险,且背景风险与项目风险之间往往存在着一定的相关性。文章在已有研究的基础上,针对考虑背景风险的项目投资决策问题,分析了风险之间的相关性及相关程度对投资决策的影响。首先讨论了加性背景风险和乘性背景风险单独存在时,背景风险与项目风险之间的相关性对投资决策的影响;其次构建了两种背景风险同时存在情形下的投资模型,进而通过蒙特卡罗仿真方法给出不同相关程度下的仿真结果,在此基础上分析两种背景风险与项目风险之间的相关性及相关程度对投资决策的影响并给出相关研究结论。     

Cognitive Limitations and Investment “Myopia”*

Optimization of investment decisions in an uncertain and dynamically evolving environment is difficult due to the limitations of the decision-maker's cognitive capacity. Thus, actual investment decisions may deviate from the dynamically optimal decision rule. This paper investigates how a potential investment rule bias affects the expected payoff from a project that has an uncertain development time and an uncertain completion cost. The result shows that the presence of a potential bias in the adopted decision rule dissipates project value and that the dissipating effect is greater for a longer term project if the completion cost is an increasing function of the time to completion.     

Technology Investment and Management Accounting Practice

Management accounting techniques and information are often accused of having many limitations that are likely to constrain investment in new technology. However, relatively little is known about the actual influence of management accounting practices on investment decisions. The empirical evidence of this research shows that new technology investment decisions are both highly complex and political. These decision attributes give rise to a protracted, circuitous, decision process that is very different from the rational model which dominates the capital budgeting literature. The research also shows that the management accounting system captures only a fraction of the information generated by this process and consequently has a relatively low influence on these investment decisions.     

Data Envelopment Analysis for Managerial Control and Diagnosis*

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a linear programming-based technique that converts multiple input and output measures into a single comprehensive measure of productive efficiency. This is accomplished via the construction of an empirically based production frontier and by the identification of peer groups. Each unit is evaluated by comparison against a composite unit that is constructed as a convex combination of other units in its peer group. DEA has now been applied in a variety of managerial contexts. In this paper we draw on theories of decision making, measurement and control, the mathematical properties of DEA, prior reported applications, and our own experience, to assess the potential of DEA as a general management tool. We first make the distinction between managerial diagnosis and control. We show how measurement requirements differ for these two managerial decision contexts, and argue that DEA has the potential to provide support in each context. Measurement and decision support criteria for each activity are then developed by reference to the literature on diagnosis and control. Based on its mathematical definition and properties, the relevant attributes of DEA are then derived. The technique is evaluated in each capacity by comparison to the appropriate set of criteria. This evaluation is supported with evidence from our experience with DEA in a large public-sector organization. We argue that the structural properties of DEA, critical managerial choices in its application, and situationally specific factors, interact to determine the strengths and limitations of DEA in each decision context. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

Taxes,risky investments,and the simultaneous choice of organizational form and financing

By taking explicit account of liability limitations, we analyse the influence of taxes on the simultaneous choice of organizational form and financing. In a two-state model for a single reporting period investors striving for maximisation of expected utility choose the organizational form (with or without liability limitation) in which they implement a given risky real investment and decide how they finance it (equity or debt). We demonstrate that liability limitations result in tax-relevant differences between organizational forms. Thus, for example, the tax bases differ in relation to the chosen liability-contingent debt capital compensations as well as to tax loss offset rules. Therefore, even in the event of identical tax rates, taxes can influence the decision regarding the organizational form.     

User Perceptions of Decision Support Effectiveness: Two Production Planning Experiments*

Decision support systems continue to be very popular in business, despite mixed research evidence as to their effectiveness. We hypothesize that what-if analysis, a prominent feature of most decision support systems, creates an “illusion of control” causing users to overestimate its effectiveness. Two experiments involving a production planning task are reported which examine decision makers' perceptions of the effectiveness of what-if analysis relative to the alternatives of unaided decision making, and quantitative decision rules. Experiment 1 found that almost all subjects believed what-if analysis was superior to unaided decision making, although using what-if analysis had no significant effect on performance. Experiment 2 found that decision makers were indifferent between what-if analysis and a quantitative decision rule which, if used, would have led to significant cost savings. Thus, what-if analysis did create an illusion of control: decision makers perceived performance differences where none existed, and did not detect large differences when they were present. In both experiments, decision makers exhibited difficulty realizing that their positive beliefs about what-if analysis were exaggerated. Such misjudgments could lead people to continue using what-if analysis even when it is not beneficial and to avoid potentially superior decision support technologies.