Is demography destiny? The role of structural and demographic factors in Australis past and future labour supply

Following the release of the Intergenerational Report, the Australian Treasury identified the levers to address the economic effects of demographic ageing as ‘the three Ps’: population, participation and productivity. To date, the first ‘P’, population, has been treated as an exogenous factor, with the common view being that there is very little that the government can do to supplant demographic ageing. Focusing upon labour supply, this paper shows how variation in Australia’s underlying demography can significantly alter Australia’s future labour supply. Although governments cannot redirect the cohort flow component of population ageing, much can be achieved in promoting growth of the labour supply by maintaining or increasing fertility (in the longer term), or increasing targeted migration (in the short to medium term). This paper also decomposes the relative role of cohort flow, changing demography and changing labour force participation on the growth of the labour supply over the past 20 years. Over this period, the entry of the baby boom generation (cohort flow) and increased labour force participation of women accounted for almost all of the growth in the labour force. Changing demography had very little effect. However, Australias future labour supply will not include a large increase in cohort flow (as caused by the baby boomers) or a very large increase in female labour force participation. Regardless of the assumptions used, labour supply growth will be considerably lower in the next and subsequent 20 years, when compared to the previous 20.     

Population Policies in Developed Countries: How do Australia’S Policies Compare?

This paper compares international population policies with respect to population growth, fertility and immigration, and discusses current attitudes to the demographic situation in developed countries. Only Canada, the United States and Australia have a policy of continuing high immigration, and Australia’s migrant intake per head of population is considerably higher than for the other two countries. An emerging philosophy in Britain and Europe is a focus on “child quality” and the well-being of a near stationary population, rather than continued population growth. There is also an awareness that immigration is not a solution to the ageing “problem” and that there are more efficient non-demographic means of coping with an older population.     

全球化背景下的国际间人口迁移研究

国际间的人口迁移与境内迁移有着很大的不同,这些不同包括国际间迁移遇到更多的障碍,受到各国迁移法规和政策限制;迁移者知识和技能是否可以转移到另一社会环境中使用的问题;国家之间语言、文化宗教以及其它一系列差异要远远大于境内区域间的差异。由于国际迁移的这些特点,国际迁移在境内迁移的理论基础上,还要考虑国家之间的法规和政策限制的因素、国家间社会福利之间的差别,以及更注重对非经济因素的考查。目前的全球化和区域一体化趋势对国际的或区域的劳动力市场发展提出了新的要求。     

Replacement Migration Revisited: Simulations of the Effects of Selected Population and Labor Market Strategies for the Aging Europe, 2002–2052

This paper contains the selected results of research concerning the impact of international migration on population dynamics and labor force resources in 27 European countries over the 2002–2052 period. The study presents a set of simulations prepared under various assumptions on target population size and selected proxy indicators of population and labor force structures. The concept of “replacement migration’’ is used to illustrate the magnitude of the expected deficit and structural imbalance of the population and labor force in the first half of the 21st century. The results are the basis for making general recommendations for future population, migration, and labor market policy strategies in Europe, taking into account the long-term plausibility of the proposed solutions. It is argued that only a combination of policies aimed at increasing fertility and labor force participation, together with reasonable-level immigration, can help meet socioeconomic challenges posed by population aging.     

Net migration and migration effectiveness: A comparison between Australia and the United Kingdom, 1976–96 Part 1: Total migration patterns

A nation’s population is redistributed through migration flows and counterflows between its constituent subnational areas, resulting in a geographical pattern of net migration gains or losses which may change from one time period to another. Migration effectiveness is the indicator commonly used to measure net migration as a proportion of gross migration turnover for any territorial unit. This paper explores the effect of net migration in two different countries, Australia and the United Kingdom, using measures of migration effectiveness computed from period-age migration data sets for a system of city regions assembled for four consecutive five-year periods in each country. While the evidence suggests that the overall effectiveness of net migration has declined over the 20-year period in both countries, marked similarities and contrasts are apparent in the spatial patterning of migration that together provide useful analytical insights into the changing space economies of the two countries.     

Consistent correction of data for aboriginal populations

A consistent correction procedure is used to determine improved, consistent estimates by sex of census age distributions, intercensal births, intercensal deaths and net migration by age for the Aboriginal populations of the Northern Territory, South Australia and Western Australia during the period 1986–91. Undercount estimates and life tables show the Aboriginal populations to have lower coverage in statistical collections and much higher death risks than the total Australian population. Inter-regional net migration estimates show that component of change can no longer be ignored.     

To have or not to have? Australian women’s childbearing desires,expectations and outcomes

Australia’s low fertility rate is commonly attributed to deliberate decisions by women to avoid having children. Existing theoretical explanations of fertility decision-making mostly view childbearing as a rational, voluntary process and focus on the ‘costs’ to women of having children. Although this may help explain why women do not have children, it contributes very little to understanding why women do have children. This study describes childbearing desires, expectations and outcomes in a population-based sample of 569 30–34-years-old Australian women recruited from the Australian Electoral Roll in 2005. Most women surveyed wanted to have children, and their childbearing outcomes were associated with biological, psychological and social factors including the lack of a partner and adverse health conditions. The factors and their relative importance varied by parity. Most women had fewer children than they desired, and many would have children, or more children, if their circumstances were different. These data challenge prevailing assumptions about women’s childbearing behaviour that women are able to choose when and if they have a child. Based on the findings, a conceptual framework of childbearing behaviour is proposed which builds on existing theoretical explanations to explain why women do and do not have children, differences by parity, and the role of circumstances in women’s childbearing behaviour. The findings and conceptual framework have implications for public policies, and indicate that multiple approaches are required which are sensitive to and address the barriers women face in family formation.     

When nature rebels: international migration, climate change, and inequality

We study climate change and international migration in a two-country overlapping generations model with endogenous climate change. Our main findings are that climate change increases migration; small impacts of climate change have significant impacts on the number of migrants; a laxer immigration policy increases long-run migration, aggravates climate change, and increases north–south inequality if climate change impacts are not too small; and a greener technology reduces emissions, long-run migration, and inequality if the migrants’ impact to overall climate change is large. The preference over the policies depends on whether the policy maker targets inequality, wealth, the environment, or the number of migrants.     

If Men Do More Housework,Do Their Wives Have More Babies?

We analyze data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey waves 1–6, to investigate whether the housework and childcare contributions of coupled Australian men with one child affect the likelihood that their wives will have a second child. We find no evidence that the way housework or childcare is shared has an effect, nor that the amount of men’s contribution to housework or childcare has an effect. In addition, the effect of men’s housework and childcare time on fertility does not appear to be mediated through its effect on their wives’ housework and childcare.     

Tracing the Density Impulse in Rural Settlement Systems: A Quantitative Analysis of the Factors Underlying Rural Population Density Across South-Eastern Australia, 1981–2001

Rural population density has a very significant independent influence over important socio-economic and demographic characteristics of developed world rural communities. Additionally, it is a fundamental variable in public policy and planning, both expressing and influencing the relative cost-efficiency of servicing populations. Yet density is itself produced by more fundamental qualities (e.g. environmental resources, nature and time of colonisation) which may themselves change over time. Treating rural population density as a dependent variable produced by a wide variety of factors, we build and test two causal models that attempt to explain the observed pattern of rural densities across south-eastern Australia (n = 414 communities). We distinguish between a “productivist” model—applicable for most of white Australia’s history—and a consumptionist model that takes account of recent counter-urbanisation trends. These models are applied to the entire study area and, in recognition of the study area’s internal heterogeneity, to five clusters of communities. In the drier inland and remoter zones, the productivist model exhibits the greatest explanatory power, while in the more accessible and well-watered “multifunctional” zones, an expanded model that incorporates a measure of “amenity” produces the best results. The research finds that simple environmental factors, coupled with relative location within the national space economy, act as dominant controls over rural population density in early 21st century Australia.

Commoditization of Lifestyle Migration: Japanese Retirees in Malaysia

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the relationship between mobilities created from individual choices and the market factors driving lifestyle migration. The transnational mobility of elderly Japanese throughout Asia is considered one of the emerging cases of international retirement migration in Asia, an overall relatively new phenomenon. Through examining the sociocultural aspects of lifestyle migration in the case of Japanese international retirement migration to Malaysia, this paper argues that lifestyle migration, as a form of consumption, results in self-realization that has a culturally specific meaning for Japanese retirees. By linking tourism and migration, this paper proposes that the mobilities market serves as a mediator of transnational human mobilities and argues that the commoditization of Japanese international retirement migration reflects on both the socioeconomic and sociocultural aspects of Japan as an aging society. Ethnographic data, alongside media discourse analysis, demonstrates how the expectation of self-realization is mediated through the promotion of Malaysia as a destination country of Japanese international retirement migration and their culturally specific understandings of retirement lifestyle.     

The Spatial Distribution of Quality of Life in the United States and Interstate Migration, 1965–1970 and 1985–1990

This study applies a relatively new method called ‘co-plot’ to examine the relationships between the 48 contiguous states of the United States and selected indicators of quality of life in 1970 and 1990, and how these characteristics coincide with five-year interstate migration rates. The findings show an overall process of polarization of quality of life throughout the country. Strong similarity was found between states of a given division or region. The states which composed New England, the Middle Atlantic and the Pacific divisions are located in the strong sector of the socio-economic space. The direction of migration is toward states of the more external belts of the country. In the second part, multiple regression analysis was applied revealing a strong effect of economic incentives on migration; over time; migration turns into a widespread phenomenon among different socio-economic groups, with income becoming less significant as a predictor of interstate migration.     

International migration in Asia and the Pacific: trends,problems, and recommendations

Like other parts of the world, the Asia and Pacific region has experienced mass movements of the population within and across countries. This report presents the issues and problems discussed, and the recommendations given at the Expert Group Meeting on International Migration in Asia and the Pacific, held in 1984 in Manila. The 9 issues discussed include: 1) available data on international migration are often inconsistent, incomplete, and inadequate for a thorough analysis of the migration situation; 2) the conventional economic theory of migration, and the modern view are different, but related; 3) are internal and international migration 2 distinct phenomena, or are they simply opposite ends of a continuum ranging from short-distance moves within a country to long-distance moves across national boundaries?; 4) permanent migration from Asia and the Pacific to the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand has risen sharply over the the past few years; 5) international migration could have considerable effects on the size, composition, growth, and structure of the populations of both sending and receiving countries; 6) temporary labor migration to the Middle East increased rapidly in the recent past; 7) temporary labor migration has benefits and costs to the home country and to the returning workers and their families; 8) refugee movements within and from Asia have had significant repercussions, not only in the lives of the migrants themselves, but also in the national policies and social structures of the asylum countries; and 9) international migration, if properly controlled and organized, could work for the benefit of every country involved.     

International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows

In this paper, I empirically investigate the determinants of migration inflows into 14 OECD countries by country of origin between 1980 and 1995. I analyze the effect on migration of average income and income dispersion in destination and origin countries. I also examine the impact of geographical, cultural, and demographic factors as well as the role played by changes in destination countries’ migration policies. My analysis both delivers estimates consistent with the predictions of the international migration model and generates empirical puzzles.     

A critical disjuncture? The culmination of post-World War II socio-demographic and economic trends in the United States

This essay examines the consequences of major social, demographic and economic trends in the United States since World War II. These include rising women’s employment, the ‘Baby Boom’, the outlines of the so-called ‘new’ immigration, the increasing racial and ethnic diversity deriving from that immigration, the economic contexts in which recent US immigration has occurred, and recent technologically-induced features of global work flows that will condition immigration’s future reception and effects. Women’s wartime work experiences, together with their economic opportunities in the ensuing decades, boosted married women’s autonomy and domestic leverage. Rising economic prosperity encouraged marriage and family formation even as growing employment among married women of childbearing age made having and taking care of large families more difficult. World War II also spawned the expansion of migration to the United States, which in turn converted the country from a largely biracial society with a sizable white majority and a small black minority into a multiracial, multiethnic society with greater racial and ethnic boundary crossing and increasingly blurred colour lines. A major issue is whether currently changing economic conditions and social institutions will support and strengthen such tendencies or instead weaken them. Without robust job growth, the demographic legacy of the baby boom, which now involves ever-rising numbers of retired people, will be more difficult to support, especially given the country’s current fiscal deficits. Greater earnings inequality and weak job growth may also poison the climate for further immigration to the US, thus diminishing the chance that newcomers can continue contributing to the dissolution of fault lines among racial-ethnic groups and to the resolution of periodic labour shortages.     

解决跨国劳动力养老保险权益可携性问题的国际经验借鉴

随着经济全球化不断深入,劳动力跨国流动将越来越频繁,反过来它将有助于全球经济合作和一体化。对跨国劳动力进行社会保护的重要性由此也更加突出,其中解决好养老保险权益可携性问题将可以实现劳动力输出国、输入国和劳动者之间的三赢。全球不同国家已经对跨国劳动力的养老保险问题做出规定,并在多边或双边层次上展开合作,已经取得了一些较好的经验。我国作为一个劳动力资源大国和经济大国,劳动力跨国流动的规模将不断扩大,也需要高度重视跨国养老权益的保护。     

The changing spatial distribution and concentration of Australias chinese and Vietnamese communities: An analysis of 1986–2006 Australian population census data

This paper describes the changing spatial distribution and concentration of Chinese and Vietnamese communities in Australia over the two past decades. The research analyses data of individuals (i) born in the People’s Republic of China or Vietnam, (ii) of Chinese or Vietnamese ancestry, and (iii) who spoke Chinese or Vietnamese languages at home. Basic demographic and economic factors at the SLA level are considered to provide an initial discussion of meso-level factors which may have contributed to changes in Chinese-and Vietnamese-Australian distributions and concentrations since 1986. As expected, from field observations, the data reveal a contrasting picture of the spatial distribution and concentration of the Chinese- and Vietnamese-Australian communities, and indicate that although a few areas of high Vietnamese spatial concentration have persisted into 2006, and a few areas of high’ Chinese spatial concentration have developed since 1986, overall there is an increasing dispersion of both communities into the broader Australian community.     

Does globali zation affect human well-being?

The prevailing theorizing of globalization’s influence of human well-being suggests to assess both the favorable and unfavorable outcomes. This study formulates a dialectical model, adopts a comprehensive globalization measure and uses a three-wave panel data during 1980–2000 to empirically test direct and indirect effects of global flows’ human consequences. The outcomes from random effect modeling reveal significant positive impacts of political globalization, whereas economic and social globalization do not generate favorable influences when development level and regional differences are operated as controls. The overall globalization index is found to generate expected favorable influence on an overall human development index. Within developing countries, globalization’s human influence was not as significant as in industrial countries, however. Several hypotheses about globalization’s potential negative effects through increasing societal instabilities and reducing state power and social spending are not supported in analysis. It is concluded that globalization identified by increased global flows and exchanges contributes rather than hampers progress in human welfare.     

Investing in Leaving: The Greek Case of International Migration of Professionals

In the last twenty years, the ‘international migration of professionals’ from Greece has increased. This paper is based on an extensive survey of Greek professionals who work or have worked in another country. It is the first ever research on the topic in Greece and the first one in the international literature to include participants who are currently abroad or have repatriated. The aim of the paper is threefold. First, it presents the main characteristics of this phenomenon. Second, to explain why Greece, alongside other peripheral countries, suffers from migration of its professionals: in contrast to a dominant view insisting on an allegedly abundant supply of highly skilled labour, it is argued that the phenomenon is primarily due to their low demand in the Greek labour market. Third, to argue that such migration can have positive implications for a country, not only when these people return but also when they stay abroad.