THE STATE OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

This paper tests systematic responses of the Federal budget to forecasts of inflation and unemployment. Estimated coefficients from fiscal policy reaction functions are examined to determine whether there are such systematic responses. Additionally, the coefficients of these estimated fiscal policy reaction functions are used to test several hypotheses concerning fiscal policy which have been advanced in the political business cycle and public choice literatures.     

THE SUCCESS OF THE FED AND THE DEATH OF MONETARISM

We propose an explanation for the demise of monetarism in the United States. We show that optimal monetary policy would lead to zero correlation between monetary aggregates and inflation if the effect of monetary aggregates on inflation is known precisely and to negative correlations if there is coefficient uncertainty. From 1960 to 1982 the correlation of the monetary base and inflation was positive and so the variance in the growth rate of monetary base in the United States was clearly too large monetary base growth destabilized inflation. However, from 1983 to 2003 variations in monetary base growth were clearly stabilizing and could have been just right. ( JEL E52, E31, E32)     

THE ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTABILITY OF LOTTERY NUMBER

The article first briefly review the origin and development of the lottery, sums up the previous literature, think the lottery is random lottery and is predictable; Then, through the analysis of the mechanics of the SSC of the ratio of betting amount to award setting and the winning probability, combined with the trend and probability theory, this paper proposes a lottery number prediction method; Finally, as for the proposed prediction method with practice, using the method of historical data test and practical test, the effectiveness of the methods made records and statistics, prove the feasibility of lottery prediction and the prediction method is effective.     

THE POLITICS OF THE DOORSTEP

This paper considers the legacy of continuing activism of women in the North East of England who organized in support of the 1984–85 miners’ strike. It refers to the traditional responsibility of women in mining localities for the maintenance of neighbourhood and kin relations and using the example of a key activist in one ex-mining village, it argues that the values associated with ‘mining community’ remain relevant as a reference point for a self-conscious, politicized reshaping of local relationships in post-industrial conditions. The material basis for this self-conscious approach has shifted from the masculine sphere of mining work and its associated community institutions to the feminized sphere of location and neighbourhood.     

SOME QUALMS ABOUT THE TEST OF THE INSTITUTIONALIST HYPOTHESIS OF THE LONG-RUN BEHAVIOR OF VELOCITY

This paper expresses econometric qualms about Bordo and Jonung's [1981] analysis of long-run velocity. They did not recognize that, for U.S. and Canadian data, the log of velocity has a unit root. Hence, estimation of a log level regression may produce spurious regressions.
When Bordo and Jonung's velocity equation is reestimated in rate of change form, permanent income is significant, contrary to their earlier conclusion. Moreover, using this approach gives a stronger result for one of the institutional variables in the velocity function, in the sense that the remaining variables become more significant.     

THE INFORMATIZATION OF THE WORLDVIEW

The development of information and communication technology in the second half of the twentieth century in crucial respects resembles the development of mechanics in the sixteenth and seventeenth century as it has been described by Dijksterhuis in his study The Mechanization of the World Picture (first published in 1950). In both cases specific technological developments not only lead to important changes in the natural and human sciences, but also profoundly affect culture as a whole and eventually result in a fundamental change in worldview. In this article the author attempts to elucidate the present informatization of the worldview in a twofold way. First, against the background of Dijksterhuis' analysis of the concept of mechane, a clarification is given of the concept of information, which has become central to many sciences in the last decades. It is argued that much of the confusion and misuse that surrounds the application of this concept can be reduced by making a careful distinction between the pragmatic, semantic and syntactic dimensions of information. Second, on basis of this clarification, the author discusses the transformation from a mechanistic to an informationistic worldview. While the mechanistic worldview is characterized by the postulates of analysability, lawfulness and controllability, the informationistic worldview is characterized by the postulates of synthetizability, programmability and manipulability. It is argued that although the informationistic worldview in some respects (for instance in its mathematical orientation) is clearly a continuation of the mechanistic worldview, in other respects it fundamentally alters human experience and the evaluation of, and association with, reality.     

THE GROWTH OF THE FEDERAL DEFICIT AND THE ROLE OF PUBLIC ATTITUDES

How can the recent explosion in the fiscal deficit of the UnitedStates be reconciled with the well-known support of the Americanpublic for fiscal conservatism? It is first shown that the reputationfor fiscal conservatism is fully supported by public opinionpolls dating back over a period of four decades. Solid majoritieshave consistently opposed tax reductions that might producean unbalanced budget. Recently, however, the public has alsoshown strong opposition to increases in taxes to close the fiscalgap, which might appear to imply a new acquiescence to the deficit.But this opposition, too, is shown to have persisted for a longtime and to be not logically inconsistent with rejecting taxcuts resulting in deficit. Another fashionable explanation forthe deficit holds that the budget process in a democratic societyis biased toward deficit because the cost of higher taxes isimmediate while the cost of deficit is delayed. But it is inconsistentwith the fiscal history of the United States over the last 100years, which reveals no systematic bias toward deficits, atleast until recent years. The major explanation that emergesis that the administration succeeded in misleading the public(and perhaps even itself) into believing that the tax cut wouldnot result in deficit thanks to "supply" and "Laffer curve"effects.     

THE MEANING OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF MEANING

The interrelation between “processes” and “structures” is addressed in this article with a discussion of quantum theory and classical physics, on the one hand and pragmatic theories of meaning and structuralist ones, on the other. It is concluded that just as quantum theory needs the apparatus of classical physics to establish its own phenomena, pragmatic theories need structuralist apparatus to establish their own. It is argued that both in the case of quanta as in that of meaning, measurement procedures create similar relations of uncertainty: Heisenberg relations in physics and Meadian relations in sociopsychology.     

ON THE AMBIGUITIES OF A SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CULTURE OF NARCISSISM

This article is devoted to an analysis of three sets of ambiguities underlying sociological analyses of the new culture of narcissism. The first set concerns the differential importance of childhood experiences and the contradictory cultural norms that regulate the placement of the adult self in time and space. The second set concerns the problem of whether these contradictions result from the structural characteristics of post-industrial societies or, alternatively, from the transition from a system of stratification based on production skills to one based on consumption patterns. Because we argue that narcissism is produced by such a transition and by concomitant anomic processes, the third set concerns the universal, unintentional and invarant properties attributed to sociopsychological responses to anomie. Examination of these ambiguities enables us to specify the additional analyses needed for a sociological understanding of narcissism, as well as the methodologies that such analyses require.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF CAMPAIGN SPENDING: THE ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT JACKPOT

To raise money for their campaigns, political candidates auction a part of government wealth (the jackpot) to contributors. The larger the jackpot, the more candidates spend. Data on the gubernatorial races of 1978 and 1986 indicate that (1) for every dollar increase in the per capita jackpot, campaign spending rises by 0.0004 cents per voter, (2) balanced budget laws hinder the candidate's ability to raise money, (3) in states that give the governor more power over the budget (measured by a "Schlesinger" index) candidates raise more. The paper emphasizes that candidates willingly limit their spending to avoid indebtedness to contributors.     

THE RISING COST OF TIME OF FEMALES, THE GROWTH OF NATIONAL BRANDS AND THE SUPPLY OF RETAIL SERVICES

A rise in the relative cost of time of women has increased the demand for brand names and reduced the demand for information traditionally supplied by retailers. A theory of the optimal allocation of shopping responsibilities in a two-earner household shows that a rise in the woman's wage increases the demand for brand names by more than an increase in the man's wage. An increase in the relative earnings of women is related to a rise in male shopping, the growth of trademark filings, an increase in manufacturer advertising, and a reduction in retail personal services in several industries.     

THE SPIRIT OF THE PEOPLE

This article examines the construction of ‘People’ in current and historical interpretation of the Constitution of the United States. It argues that ‘People’ is a powerful rhetorical figure constructed to sustain a narrative that transcends the realities of hard-won social change gained by living groups of people in US history. Opposing the common professional and popular conception of the US Constitution as the oldest continually functioning constitutional document, this paper posits that there have been many US Constitutions. With particular focus on the constitutional sanction of slavery and subsequent abolition amendments, as well as looking at Supreme Court cases concerning segregation and civil rights, it is argued that the Constitution does not represent a continuity, but a series of radically new documents. The Constitution(s) of the United States must, like any other text, be read and interpreted to have meaning; that is, the Constitution(s) do not have inherent, obvious meaning equally and readily available over generations. The contrary is made to seem the case by those interpreters who perpetuate an historical narrative of liberty and ‘People’ regardless of the contradictions, exclusions and hypocrisies of reality. The fights for inclusion are obscured by the sustained appearance of a history of gradual but inevitable absorption into an ahistorical ideal. Further hidden is the possibility that the perceived ideal might itself be culturally and historically contingent. The maintenance of the view that constitutional language can have consistent, available meaning over centuries is not a neutral endeavour. It is used to justify the actions of existing American power as inseparable from an irreproachable, historically legitimated ownership of democratic social values and aims. This takes on a broader significance when considered in the light of current, aggressive exportation of ideas of ‘People,’ ‘democracy,’ ‘liberty’ and so on, as if they had self-evident and transferable meanings.     

THE STATE OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY: FURTHER EVIDENCE

Simultaneous monetary and fiscal policy reaction functions are derived and estimated for the 1969:2–1984.3 period. The results suggest that the Reagan administration has abandoned fiscal policy as a stabilization tool. Furthermore, although the average money growth rate declined in the Reagan administration, variation in the rate of money growth indicates that monetary policy has been used to combat unemployment. Finally, monetary and fiscal policies were not coordinated during this period. Rather, monetary and fiscal policy appear to be set by a Nash equilibrium in a non-cooperative game. In a Nash equilibrium, the policy chosen by each authority maximizes its payoff, given the policy choice of the other authority.     

THE IMPURITY OF REPRESENTATION AND THE VITALITY OF DEMOCRACY

This article compares the conceptions of democratic representation found in the work of Ernesto Laclau and Hanna Pitkin. Whereas Laclau takes Pitkin as his foil, I contend that her treatment of representation has much more in common with Laclau's than he gives her credit for. Pitkin made a bold critique of foundationalist notions of responsiveness and acknowledged representation's constitutive function. Yet, her antipathy to symbolic representation made Pitkin recoil from the most radical implications of her argument: she would see as a threat to democratic politics that which Laclau casts as its vitality. Laclau's work, then, does not merely refute Pitkin's but advances a line of argument that she set into motion.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH AND THE EFFICIENCY OF INSTITUTIONS

This paper explores the efect on economic efficiency of the distribution of wealth and systems for enforcing property rights. We construct a two-person, two-period economy in which each person can consume, plant, transfer or steal corn. We find circumstances in which redistribution of wealth is Pareto optimal and in which increasing sanctions against theft to their maximum level is not. These results suggest that it is not only important to consider distribution in the design of property institutions, but also that redistribution itself may serve to increase the efficiency of systems of property rights.     

LIFTING THE SPIRITS OF THE NATION: BRITISH BOXERS AND THE EMERGENCE OF THE NATIONAL SPORTING HERO AT THE TIME OF THE NAPOLEONIC WARS

In September 2003 a leading British broadsheet Sunday newspaper ran a leader headed “This Sporting Life” and “Cheers for two heroes of our time,” in which it acknowledged the ability of two current, young sporting heroes to “inspire hope” and “to lift the spirits of the nation.” Nearly 200 years ago, Tom Cribb, a pugilist, was similarly described as a “hero” and his exploits were described as having “national” significance after he had defeated a black pugilist from the United States. This essay uses contemporary sources to examine the life of Tom Cribb and the public response to him, and asks whether he was the first British national sporting hero and what characteristics he may share with modern sporting heroes. The National Sporting Hero (NSH) does not necessarily come from the same ethnic group that makes him a hero, but once acquired, the status is likely to last well beyond the normal sporting career and may last for life. A NSH will have had success against a formidable opponent and provoked feelings in the general public that develop from interest to admiration, pride, gratitude, and eventually affection and will also garner public recognition beyond those who normally follow sport and a willingness of the public to overlook personal flaws. This supports Richard Holt's view that unlike heroes from other spheres whose genius makes them appear “special creatures,” sporting heroes are seen to be “more like us.” Perhaps they give us hope and lift our spirits because we see in them ourselves, not perhaps as we are, but as we would like to be.