中国人口年龄结构合理转化问题研究

文章将欧洲发达国家与中国历经的人口实践进行比较,探讨西方人口转变理论的不足,进而提出人口转变的方向及完成与否的判别标准。文章在构建年龄结构转化理论的基础上,严格区分了相对过剩人口与相对适宜人口,指出未完成年龄结构转化过程的发展中国家与相对基本完成年龄结构转化过程的发达国家人口状况的区别,从而论证中国人口年龄结构转化的日趋合理性。     

曲折、艰难、辉煌的中国生育转变

从1979～2009年30年人口变动的历程来看,中国人口转变是成功的,其结果是辉煌的,但其转变的历程,尤其是生育转变的历程是曲折和艰难的,历史留给人们的经验和教训是深刻的。本文将近30年来的生育转变历程为四个阶段,从而突显了不同阶段生育水平的变化,以及生育水平与社会经济变革、生育行为以及生育政策博弈的结果。1979～1984年生育水平反弹波动,反映出严格的生育政策遇到强大阻力,结果是欲速而不达。1985～1991年生育高峰如期而至,显示了人口内在规律的强大威力,从而最大限度地调动了人口控制的力量。1992～1999生育率再次下降,并穿透替代水平生育率,宣告人口转变基本完成。2000～2009低生育水平持续稳定,人口结构性问题逐步显现,统筹解决人口问题势在必行。     

日本失去的二十年——基于中日人口红利比较的视角

"人口红利"是人口因素与经济增长关系研究的深入和发展。亚洲地区经济高速增长和工业化国家人口老龄化条件下经济增长,分别对应第一次"人口红利"和第二次"人口红利"。中国与日本相比,无论是经济增长模式还是人口转变模式,都有着极为相似之处,本文旨在通过对比分析中日两国人口发展与经济发展之间的变化,借鉴日本人口红利期的经验和教训,为中国充分实现第一次人口红利、创造第二次人口红利提供参考。     

Fertility Transition in China:A Zigzag and Splendid Course

Examining China’s population changes in the past three decades demonstrates that China’s demographic transition has been successfully completed with a splendid and zigzag path.There are profound historical experiences and lessons.This paper reviews China’s fertility transition which is divided into four periods and argues that fertility changes are a result of the interactions between socioeconomic development,fertility behaviors and fertility policies.Substantial resistance to the "one-childpolicy" during 1979 to 1984 resulted in rebounding and fluctuating fertility.The baby boom occurred in the period 1985 to 1991 was a manifestation of the inherent laws of demographic dynamics,and subsequently forceful birth control was again mobilized.The period from 1992 to 1999 witnessed large declines in fertility which penetrates the replacement zone,showing that China was completing the fertility transition.China’s stabilizing low fertility and emerging population structural issues since 2000 call for comprehensive ways in addressing the population problems.     

中国的人口转变完成了吗?

本文依据 1 998年我国人口一些重要指标所达到的水平 ,并通过与发达国家同类指标达到相同或相近水平时间的比较 ,判定我国人口转变过程在 2 0世纪末已经结束 ,人口增长从低增长走向零增长和人口结构性变动成为调节人口增长势态的主要因素这两个后人口转变时期人口变动的基本特征在我国已经开始显现出来     

Exploration and Establishment of the Chinese Model of Demographic Transition

Exploration of Chinese paths of socialist construction and demographic transition paralleled each other from 1949 to 1978.Mortality rate decreased rapidly during the early 1950s as a result of the public health campaign,which initiated the process of demographic transition in China.Countering the problem of rapid population growth in 1950s,China put forward the theory and the concept of "realizing planned childbearing",and the Chinese model of demographic transition was brewing.Orientation of the Chinese path of demographic transition was reinforced in the 1960s in the context of intensifying contradiction between population and socio-economic development.Finally,China launched the demographic transition by vigorously implementing population control and family planning in the 1970s in the midst of "Cultural Revolution" when the rapidly increasing size of population exerted great pressure on economic development.The Chinese path of demographic transition is determined by the changing characteristics of the times and China’s special national conditions.     

中国人口转变道路的探索和选择

从1949年到1978年,中国在进行社会主义道路探索的同时也在进行着对中国人口转变道路的探索。建国初期,通过开展群众卫生运动,死亡率迅速下降,开启了中国人口转变的进程。20世纪50年代,初次面对人口快速增长问题,中国提出了"实现有计划的生育"的理论和构想,人口转变的中国道路开始孕育。经历了"大跃进"时期的思想动摇、工作停滞和此后的人口继续快速增长等种种波折之后,人们在人口与社会经济矛盾激增的过程中明确了中国人口转变道路的方向。最后,在"文革"期间,脆弱的国民经济和日益增长的人口压力迫使中国选择了一条主动控制人口过快增长、实行计划生育的人口转变道路。这条道路是由时代发展特征和中国的特殊国情共同决定的。     

Three Fertility Compromises and Two Transitions

Demographers and those concerned with population policy are increasingly focusing on the steep fertility declines that occurred in developed countries from the 1960s and the consequent widespread below-replacement fertility levels. The decline has been termed the Second Demographic Transition. This paper argues that the recent demographic change can best be understood and analyzed if we broaden the concept to include the first demographic transition, and the three demographically more settled periods preceding, separating, and following the two fertility transitions. These more settled periods or “compromises” are examined to ascertain their nature and so to help predict the likely developments in the present or third compromise. It is argued that the third compromise has now extended for 20 years with little movement in fertility rates or other socioeconomic behavior which has been said to be associated with the second transition, and that this provides sufficient evidence for analysis. The approach has two key aspects. First, it is confined in Europe to countries that distinctly experienced the full five demographic periods, namely northwestern and central Europe. Second, the analysis gains strength by including non-European countries that progressed through all five stages, namely the English-speaking countries of overseas European settlement: USA, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand.     

西部人口转变探析

利用1969-1998全国分省人口的统计资料,描述了西部人口转变的过程,比较了西部与东部和全国人口转变的差异,以及西部内部人口转变的差异,总结出西部人口转变的三个特点,指出西部人口转变的彻底完成还有待于西部地区的全面发展。     

Sources of Population Aging in More and Less Developed Countries

We provide the first global assessment of the sources of population aging by tracing its origins to the demographic histories of more and less developed countries. In more developed countries, improvements in survival among successive cohorts have accounted for the large majority of the recent increase in the population's mean age. Improved survivorship and declines in the growth rate of births have made roughly equal contributions to the aging that is occurring in less developed countries. Aging is more rapid in less developed countries because the number of births has declined faster, with China and India making large contributions. Use of the proportion of the population above age 65, 70, or 75 as measures of aging produces results similar to those using the mean age. Mortality decline becomes an even larger contributor to aging using all these measures, and its contribution grows as age advances.     

An Empirical Assessment of Households Livelihood Vulnerability: The Case of Rural Ghana

The recent years witnessed a sharp drop in China’s demographic dividend; therefore, some reform measures about China’s fertility policy have been adopted to optimize population structures and to maintain demographic dividend. However, our simulation results reveal that the new two-child fertility policy cannot effectively deal with population ageing, and that China’s fertility policy needs further adjustment. Specifically, we find that the new two-child fertility policy will deteriorate demographic dividend before 2050, through combination of simulation results and formula derivation. Aiming to stabilize demographic dividend at ideal range all the time, we build nonlinear integer programming model to propose an appropriate reforming path for China’s fertility policy. Then, we simulate and compare demographic developments under the proposed reforming path with those under three possible fertility policies: one-child, two-child and no fertility restriction, verifying that the proposed reforming path has better performance on stabilizing demographic dividend than these three fertility policies have. Finally, sensitivity analysis of upper bound of research interval is conducted to evaluate the effect of the upper bound on proposed reforming path. Based on these results, we suggest that China should continue to execute current strict fertility policy before 2032, then begin to relax it gradually especially during 2036–2041, and completely cancel fertility policy after 2065.     

俄罗斯的人口老龄化

随着社会经济的发展和科技进步,人口老龄化已经成为现代社会的必然趋势,是世界各国普遍面临的重大社会问题。俄罗斯人口转变过程开始的时间较晚,但人口老龄化速度较快,地区差异大,而且城市和农村之间存在差别,老龄化形势严峻。制定合理的、符合本国国情的社会政策能够缓解人口老龄化问题。     

The Momentum of Real Population Under Linear Fertility Transition

Population momentum is the ratio of a population's ultimate size after a demographic transition to its initial size before the transition. For stable population and instantaneous drop to replacement fertility, Keyfitz found a simple formula for the momentum. Although Keyfitz's formula has been extended to cover gradual demographic transitions, the stable initial population, however, is still an obstacle to approaching reality. Using the solution of the Lotka equation with time-varying vital rates and extending it to negative values of time, exact and accurate formulae for the momentum of any initial population that undergoes a linear fertility transition are expressed. Examples using the data from the United Nations indicate that the accurate formula works well for the age structures that are far from stable such as the more and less developed regions, as well as that close to stable such as the least developed region.     

从一次人口转变到二次人口转变——现代人口转变及其启示

在扼要解析狭义人口转变及其经典模型的基础上,认为第二次人口转变的提出,是结合人口"中间变量"从广义上阐释了人口变化的内在动因与作用机理,进而在宏观、中观和微观三个层面引入了对现代人口转变与社会变迁关系的思考。主张人口转变是一个多维的动态历史过程,蕴涵着婚姻、生育、家庭、健康、人口调控等系列转变。提出第二次人口转变在中国的城市地区已露端倪。最后特别指出人口转变不仅仅是人口变化,更重要的是将其嵌套的社会变迁,两者关系的空前紧密折射着社会变化与社会需求。过去30年中国通过计划生育让人口"适应"了经济腾飞,而今后三、五十年以至更长时间,应使人口的"主体"地位逐步复归,让经济社会发展适应新的人口变化与社会需求,提高人口生存与生命质量,这才是发展的目的本身。     

人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应--论中国增长可持续性的人口因素

人口转变是挑战中国经济持续增长的一个重要因素.在这个过程中,个人的生命周期和代际更替之间的相互叠加,通过劳动供给、储蓄和科技进步等渠道对长期经济增长施加影响.本文分析表明,人口转变使得中国从20世纪60年代中期开始享受人口红利,并一直持续到2015年前后.为了迎接人口老龄化冲击,中国需要通过扩大就业、加快人力资本积累和建立适合于中国国情的可持续的养老保障模式三条途径来充分挖掘未来潜在的人口红利,推动中国经济持续增长.     

Demographers’ Involvement in Twentieth-Century Population Policy: Continuity or Discontinuity?

The second half of the twentieth century witnessed the development of a crusading spirit and massive technical aid aimed at reducing fertility levels and rates of population growth in developing countries, and also the involvement of demographers in these events. The demographers at Princeton University’s Office of Population Research, Frank Notestein and his colleagues, have been singled out by recent authors as playing a unique role in bringing about these changes, and they have been criticized for encouraging demographers to become involved, so eroding their scientific objectivity. This paper examines the development of relevant population thought and theory in the English-language literature over the first half of the twentieth century. It concludes that in the circumstances of the second half of the twentieth century, it was inevitable that developed countries and their demographers would become involved in controlling fertility levels in developing countries. The OPR story should be seen largely in terms of how the world’s leading demographic center and its demographic transition theory were swept along by global changes. As those developments started, attitudes to population change in densely settled Asia became Malthusian, even as population growth accompanied by mortality decline in Asia demonstrated that, at least in the short term, the positive checks were disappearing.     

家庭人口老化对碳排放的影响——基于家庭微观视角的实证研究

人口老龄化和全球气候变暖已经成为世界各国共同关注的议题。在我国人口老龄化日益加剧、环境问题也逐渐引起社会各界广泛关注的背景下,家庭层面人口老化与碳排放之间关系值得深入研究。文章从微观家庭结构出发,对家庭内部人口老化与碳排放之间关系进行理论分析,利用中国家庭金融调查数据库(CHFS)2013年的截面数据对人口老化与碳排放的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明家庭的老化特征与家庭碳排放之间呈现负相关,家庭的老化特征有助于减轻家庭的碳排放水平,老年人与年轻人共同生活的主干家庭更加"节能环保",这一结论与人们的一般感性认识有所不同。因此,应当鼓励年轻人与老年人共同居住,通过老年人的生活方式和消费习惯影响家庭的消费行为和消费结构,使家庭朝着节约环保型转变。本文的结论同时也表明人口老龄化产生的并非都是消极影响,其对社会的影响需要进行全面评估以积极应对老龄社会的到来。     

人口因素对CO2排放的影响——基于面板分位数回归的实证研究

基于1995～2009年中国省际面板数据,利用面板分位数回归模型估计人口因素对我国CO2排放量的影响,结果显示:人口数量和人口城市化率是影响我国CO2排放的主要人口因素,但从影响大小上看,人口数量变化对发达省份CO2排放的影响大于欠发达省份,而人口城市化率则对欠发达省份的CO2排放具有更大的影响;家庭小型化对CO2排放的影响因省而异,对不同省份,要么没有明显的影响,要么可能导致CO2排放量增加;年龄结构目前还不是导致我国CO2排放量变化的主要人口因素;综合比较而言,经济发展水平对CO2排放的影响大于人口各因素,产业结构对CO2排放的影响小于人口数量和人口城市化率,而技术进步与CO2排放的关系则显得模糊。     

Divergent Patterns in the Ethnic Transformation of Societies

The uneven timing of the demographic transition in different countries of the world will lead to divergence between countries in ethnic and religious homogeneity. Developed‐country populations that began their fertility transitions relatively early are becoming increasingly diverse with respect to the ethnic origin and religion of their inhabitants, primarily as a result of high recent levels of immigration. Many demographic patterns of the developed world, such as low death and birth rates, are becoming universal. It might be expected that less developed countries will also turn from emigration to experiencing immigration, as their populations age and their economies develop. This essay suggests, however, that future ethnic diversity arising from immigration may be less marked in many of those developing countries than in the West, especially among latecomers to the fertility transition. Five reasons are advanced as impediments to the globalization of ethnic heterogeneity arising from immigration: demographic, economic, political, and factors related to resource constraints, and climate change. The essay considers what social, economic, and political consequences might arise if high levels of ethnic diversity, and possibly ethnic replacement, remained an idiosyncratic peculiarity of today's developed countries, which would therefore diverge in important ways from the rest of the world as the twenty‐first century unfolds.     

Demographic change and response: Social context and the practice of birth control in six countries

This paper expands on Kingsley Davis’s demographic thesis of change and response. Specifically, we consider the social context that accounts for the primacy of particular birth control methods that bring about fertility change during specific time periods. We examine the relevance of state policy (including national family planning programs), the international population establishment, the medical profession, organized religion, and women’s groups using case studies from Japan, Russia, Puerto Rico, China, India, and Cameroon. Some of these countries are undergoing the second demographic transition, others the first. Despite variations in context, heavy reliance on sterilization and/or, abortion as a means of birth control is a major response in most of these countries. The key roles of the medical profession and state policy are discussed, along with the general lack of influence of religion and of women’s groups in these countries.