Multiple Temptations

We use a preference‐over‐menus framework to model a decision maker who is affected by multiple temptations. Our two main axioms on preference—exclusion and inclusion—identify when the agent would want to restrict his choice set and when he would want to expand his choice set. An agent who is tempted would want to restrict his choice set by excluding the normatively worst alternative of that choice set. Simultaneously, he would want to expand his choice set by including a normatively superior alternative. Our representation identifies the agent's normative preference and temptations, and suggests the agent is uncertain which of these temptations will affect him. We provide examples to illustrate how our model improves on those of Gul and Pesendorfer (2001) and Dekel, Lipman, and Rustichini (2009).     

A QUARTET OF SEMIGROUPS FOR MODEL SPECIFICATION,ROBUSTNESS, PRICES OF RISK,AND MODEL DETECTION

A representative agent fears that his model, a continuous time Markov process with jump and diffusion components, is misspecified and therefore uses robust control theory to make decisions. Under the decision maker's approximating model, cautious behavior puts adjustments for model misspecification into market prices for risk factors. We use a statistical theory of detection to quantify how much model misspecification the decision maker should fear, given his historical data record. A semigroup is a collection of objects connected by something like the law of iterated expectations. The law of iterated expectations defines the semigroup for a Markov process, while similar laws define other semigroups. Related semigroups describe (1) an approximating model; (2) a model misspecification adjustment to the continuation value in the decision maker's Bellman equation; (3) asset prices; and (4) the behavior of the model detection statistics that we use to calibrate how much robustness the decision maker prefers. Semigroups 2, 3, and 4 establish a tight link between the market price of uncertainty and a bound on the error in statistically discriminating between an approximating and a worst case model. (JEL: C00, D51, D81, E1, G12)     

HIGH-LEVEL DECISIONS: A LESSON FROM THE IRAN HOSTAGE RESCUE OPERATION

We use the analytic hierarchy process to analyze the role of subjective factors in decision making as illustrated in the Iran rescue operation. Essentially, we show that a decision maker and that decision maker's advisors may differ in their estimates on whether an action should or should not be taken depending on what intangible factors the leader holds as personally important, factors that the others would not necessarily include in their thinking-a serious point for which we provide a particularly effective methodology.     

The Value of Free Water: Analyzing South Africa's Free Basic Water Policy

This paper analyzes South Africa's Free Basic Water Policy, under which households receive a free water allowance equal to the World Health Organization's recommended minimum. I estimate residential water demand, evaluate the welfare effects of free water, and provide optimal price schedules derived from a social planner's problem. I use a data set of monthly metered billing data for 60,000 households for 2002–2009 from a particularly disadvantaged suburb of Pretoria, with rich price variation across 20 different nonlinear tariff schedules. I find that the free allowance acts as a lump‐sum subsidy, without large effects on water consumption. However, it is possible to reallocate the current subsidy to form an optimal tariff without a free allowance, which would increase welfare while leaving the water provider's profit unchanged. This optimal tariff would also reduce the number of households consuming low quantities of water, a desirable policy goal according to the WHO.     

Executive development: History lessons learned from Barnard

The purpose of this paper is to derive practical lessons from Barnard's less well-known contributions to our understanding of leadership, leadership development and executive education. The main contributions of this paper are the introduction of Bevir's logic to the leadership studies and revelation that Barnard might have established the early foundations of pragmatic leadership. The introduction of Bevir's logic from the history of ideas may be instrumental to overcoming biases toward historicism and presentism, which are latent, yet common in leadership studies. The recognition of Barnard's historical contributions to the conceptualization of leadership, leadership development, and executive education is significant. These contributions are not widely known because they are not a part of his well-known book The Functions of the Executive. Barnard has much to say about these issues and we should listen and heed his suggestions.     

THE SEU CALCULUS: EFFECTS OF RESPONSE MODE,SEX, AND SEX ROLE ON UNCERTAIN DECISIONS *

Subjects were instructed on how to use simple subjective probability and utility scales, and they were asked to actively role-play a decision maker in seven risk-dilemma situations. Each scenario provided subjects with specific subjective expected utility (SEU) information for both a certain and uncertain decision alternative, but left out one critical SEU component. Subjects supplied either the lowest probability or the lowest utility for success that they found necessary before they would select the uncertain over the certain alternative in each dilemma. Three experiments examined: (a) the degree to which Ss' estimations deviated from a pattern predicted by SEU models; (b) differences in choice patterns induced by response format variations (e.g., probability vs. utility estimation); (c) the effects of sex of S; and (d) the effects of the sex-role framing of the decision problems. Ss generally chose in accord with SEU maximization principles and did so with decreasing deviations from theoretical values as practice over situations increased (Experiments I, II and III). Decisions were initially more conservative on items requesting probability estimates (Experiment I), but this effect washed out over situations. Sex differences were revealed (Experiments I and III), but in limited fashion. Rather, a replicable (Experiments I, II and III) sex-by-sex role appropriateness by response format interaction was found, in which females responded “rationally” under both probability and utility estimation conditions and under both role sets (male and female). Males, however, responded extremely conservatively under female-framed, probability estimate conditions. Ss' choices were stable over a three-week interval (Experiment III).     

MANAGING PRODUCT VARIETY: AN INTEGRATIVE REVIEW AND RESEARCH DIRECTIONS

Variety management has emerged as a crucial dimension of successful business practice. In this paper, I first provide a framework for managerial decisions about variety. Variety‐creation decisions determine the amount, type, and timing of end‐product variety, while variety‐implementation decisions focus on the design and operation of internal processes and a supply chain to support a firm's variety‐creation strategy. I organize variety‐related decisions into four key decision themes in variety creation: 1) dimensions of variety, 2) product architecture, 3) degree of customization, and 4) timing; and three key decision themes in variety implementation: 1) process capabilities, 2) points of variegation, and 3) day‐to‐day decisions. I describe each theme and review the relevant literature on each theme, with a focus on research that provides insight to problems faced in practice. Finally, I identify untapped avenues for future research that would be of value to the practicing manager, paying special attention to interdependencies among decision themes.     

Flexible working and organisational change: the integration of work and personal life

In a final large group session of a working conference in the Tavistock group relations tradition, members were concerned about who would get the consultants' 'blessing' as confirmation of their learning during the course of the conference. Some members referred to Jacob's fight at the river Jabbok and other parts of the Jacob legend from the Old Testament book of Genesis as a metaphoric frame to disentangle and explore their experiences. This concern mirrored a more general theme, which is as old as mankind - the theme of inheritance and succession. In this paper this theme will function as a frame for a broader exploration of the Jacob legend, the early development of psychoanalysis, the Tavistock tradition of group relations and the experience of organizational role holders in family businesses and other organizations. Instead of merely regarding inheritance and succession as a handing over, it will be postulated that assuming an inherited legacy requires a certain self-authorization on the part of the heir in order to own and further develop it. The capacity for containment of frustration and the ability to feel the pain of longing are requisites for ultimately taking up one's inheritance in the ongoing tradition of one's world.     

Automation in coal mining

A study of the 21st Century energy situation shows that coal must be the principal fuel, gradually followed by the renewable fuels which require fossil fuel to make and build the equipment. For a stable world the developed countries must help the less developed by providing all the tools necessary for self production of a decent standard of living, and to avoid world war all countries nust necessarily converge on a per capita energy usage about equal to the present world average per capita figure of 1·5-2 tons of coal equivalent. As oil runs out a substitute liquid fuel will have to be made from coal and from biomass because oil is uniquely suitable for road, sea and air transport and for agriculture. Coal can be mined without men going underground by directed drilling and by Telechirics—hands at a distance. In Telechiric mining, the coal would be won by conventional mining machinery but the human miners would erect, operate, maintain and repair this machinery by sitting in a control room on the surface and controlling telechirs which could move about the mine and would have mechanical hands which would respond exactly to every movement of the human master's hands. He would have touch and force feedback and three dimensional vision so good that he could use his trained craft skill of hands and eyes as though he were down the mine.     

Strategic management: lessons from success and failure.

Is Corporate Planning a failure or a success? In this article David Hussey assesses the research which has been done on the planning process and concludes that Corporate Planning obviously has the potential to improve business performance but for many reasons this potential has not been realized. He then examines the attempts which are currently being made to persuade managers to ‘think strategically’, to use portfolio analysis scenarios and other techniques of strategic analysis. He asserts that to succeed, the planner or the consultant in planning must use these and other analytical approaches to help managers ‘to change the perceptual boundaries of the strategic problem’ and generate strategies and action programmes which will enable them to compete successfully in world markets.     

An Entropy‐Based Methodology for Valuation of Demand Uncertainty Reduction

We propose a distribution‐free entropy‐based methodology to calculate the expected value of an uncertainty reduction effort and present our results within the context of reducing demand uncertainty. In contrast to existing techniques, the methodology does not require a priori assumptions regarding the underlying demand distribution, does not require sampled observations to be the mechanism by which uncertainty is reduced, and provides an expectation of information value as opposed to an upper bound. In our methodology, a decision maker uses his existing knowledge combined with the maximum entropy principle to model both his present and potential future states of uncertainty as probability densities over all possible demand distributions. Modeling uncertainty in this way provides for a theoretically justified and intuitively satisfying method of valuing an uncertainty reduction effort without knowing the information to be revealed. We demonstrate the methodology's use in three different settings: (i) a newsvendor valuing knowledge of expected demand, (ii) a short life cycle product supply manager considering the adoption of a quick response strategy, and (iii) a revenue manager making a pricing decision with limited knowledge of the market potential for his product.     

Can governments make credible promises? Insights from infrastructure projects in emerging economies

Despite deregulation and privatization, governments in emerging economies continue to play important roles in private infrastructure projects, thereby exposing private investors to the risk of government reneging. The government's role as deal maker—and deal breaker—in infrastructure investments stems from its role as financier, customer, supplier, competitor, and/or regulator. (The only role governments have shed as a result of recent economic reforms is that of producer.) Based on the literature, I propose three explanations for government reneging: (1) economic uncertainty, which necessitates contract renegotiation; (2) the logic of the “obsolescing bargain,” which makes deals less attractive to governments ex post than they were ex ante; and (3) political change, which puts new leaders in charge with incentives to renege on old promises. I assert that these risks can be contained, respectively, through contract design, investment strategy, and institutional design. Using this framework, I conclude that Enron's strategy in the controversial Dabhol project in India was sensitive to first of the three factors and relatively less mindful of the other two. The policy implication for MNCs is that they should be attentive to all three factors that cause government reneging rather than just one or two.     

A Promissory Theory of the Duty to Tip

In this article, I argued that in contexts in which tipping is customary, there is a moral duty to tip or to explicitly tell the server that you will not be tipping. The evidence for this rests on anecdotes about people's mental states, and customers and server's intuitions about duties that would arise were a customer unable to tip his server. The promise is a speech act that is implicit in ordering food. The speech act must be matched by the server's uptake, which is implicit in her taking the order. The promise argument rests on an actual promise and not a merely hypothetical promise. If there is such a duty, then in the absence of an explicit content, its content is likely set by convention. The convention is that customers tip 15–20%. Thus, customers have a duty to tip servers 15–20%. Other purported moral considerations do not ground this duty. These include custom, desirable incentives, role‐relative obligation, and gratitude.     

E.D. Smith and Sons,Ltd.

Lew Smith, the chairman of a privately owned Canadian processor, must decide whether his company will build a plant in the United States. He has been asked to do so by one of his major customers, Loblaw. The company has been making many improvements to its operations but it’s performance has been hurt by the Free Trade Agreement between Canada and the United States. The company has been doing very well, however, as it shifts its focus from making private label to controlled label. Is now the right time to expand the business into a foreign market?     

Formal planning in major U.S. corporations

As the world about us changes, managers in all types of institutions try to cope in a variety of ways. In the early 1960s, many corporate managers realized they could not make sound decisions about future business activities in an expedient, reactive manner because their firms were growing very large and complex with new technologies, products, markets and competition to deal with. As a result, formal planning techniques which had been used in narrow functional applications were introduced on a much broader scale and formal long-range planning became popular. New corporate planning functions appeared in many companies, as well as new staff planning specialists and planning executives. The author conducted a field study on the design of these systems in the mid-1960s and he argues that they showed great promise for improved management.With this history in mind, we might ask why such subjects as ‘planning techniques’ and ‘problems of implementation’ are still topics of concern. It would seem that such techniques would be well known and established in most firms after 10–15 years. However, this is not the case, for during a second field study of corporate planning systems which was completed in 1976 the author found that many corporations, including some of the largest ones, had redesigned their planning systems in the early 1970s, essentially making a fresh start at formal long-range planning. (See Table 1).From his recent field study the author concludes that all corporations experience problems in implementing and using a formal planning system. The nature of these problems and some possible remedies are the subjects upon which this article focuses.     

Change in Public Concern and Responsive Behaviors Toward Air Pollution Under the Dome

This study evaluates the effect of the documentary Under the Dome on the concern and responsive behaviors of the public regarding air pollution in China, with two surveys conducted before and after watching the documentary. Employing difference-in-differences regression, this study answers two research questions: (1) Does Under the Dome change public concern about air pollution? (2) Does Under the Dome change public behaviors in response to air pollution, including protective behaviors (i.e., wearing face masks) and mitigation behaviors (i.e., reducing car driving)? We find that the information campaign (1) protects against the decline of public concern about air pollution in Beijing and (2) moderates the degree to which people's perceived severity, perceived susceptibility, and sense of self-efficacy influence protective behaviors and moderates the degree to which people's belief in the cooperative behaviors by others influences mitigation behaviors. This study provides evidence that information campaigns of the Under the Dome type are effective in raising public awareness; however, the information campaign did not directly influence public protective and mitigation behaviors.     

The triumph of pragmatism over dogmatism or death of the Shibboleths

Managerial thinking has been subject to dogma for a very long time, whether in socialist or capitalist economies. Based on a group of research papers discussed at a conference in Barcelona, the author develops the argument that pragmatism is replacing dogmatism, almost universally. He illustrates his theme with examples from the discussion.     

Zero Expected Wealth Taxes: A Mirrlees Approach to Dynamic Optimal Taxation

In this paper, I consider a dynamic economy in which a government needs to finance a stochastic process of purchases. The agents in the economy are privately informed about their skills, which evolve stochastically over time; I impose no restriction on the stochastic evolution of skills. I construct a tax system that implements a symmetric constrained Pareto optimal allocation. The tax system is constrained to be linear in an agent's wealth, but can be arbitrarily nonlinear in his current and past labor incomes. I find that wealth taxes in a given period depend on the individual's labor income in that period and previous ones. However, in any period, the expectation of an agent's wealth tax rate in the following period is zero. As well, the government never collects any net revenue from wealth taxes.     

Learning from adversity: diary of a medical manager

This article is one physician's account of his experiences in managing a large multispecialty group practice. While he was able to accomplish much in his tenure during the latter half of the 1980s, it was, on balance, a negative experience. He describes both the high and the low points of the period and assesses how both contributed to his eventual downfall. While personal, the account has important implications for others involved in the rapidly changing, personally rewarding, and eminently challenging health car system in which physician executives work.     

AN ADAPTIVE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ACADEMIC RESOURCE PLANNING

Institutions of higher learning are growing increasingly interested in the use of model-based approaches to their resource allocation problems. Recent modeling approaches, however, have failed to consider that resource allocation planning is not a well-structured decision process. Additionally, many decision makers are necessarily involved in the academic planning process and may assume dissimilar perspectives on the importance of achieving different goals and objectives. Furthermore, satisfactory allocation solutions can be expected to vary considerably from decision maker to decision maker as the individual's cognitive processes, perceptions, and evaluations are taken into consideration. This paper describes a decision support system (DSS) approach that attempts to adapt to a variety of academic decision makers with differing planning views in an environment of multiple conflicting objectives. This DSS, which was successfully tested on four academic decision makers in a large midwestern university, shows considerable promise for providing decision support to decision makers with varied problem-solving styles.