Keeping Surveys Valid,Reliable, and Useful: A Tutorial

This tutorial focuses on how to produce reliable and generalizable data from random‐digit‐dialing (RDD) landline and cell phone surveys. The article notes that RDD response rates have declined and explores the impact of this pronounced decline. The tutorial addresses order, response mode, and many other biases, sample size, cooperation and response rates, weighting, and hybrid designs‐all using examples from risk analysis to illustrate the key points. The article ends with a brief review of the advantages and disadvantages of major Internet and paper surveys tools, and how these can be molded and sometimes combined in repeated, longitudinal, and other designs to answer questions about risk preferences and perceptions.     

Sign Restrictions,Structural Vector Autoregressions,and Useful Prior Information

This paper makes the following original contributions to the literature. (i) We develop a simpler analytical characterization and numerical algorithm for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions (VARs) that can be used for models that are overidentified, just‐identified, or underidentified. (ii) We analyze the asymptotic properties of Bayesian inference and show that in the underidentified case, the asymptotic posterior distribution of contemporaneous coefficients in an n‐variable VAR is confined to the set of values that orthogonalize the population variance–covariance matrix of ordinary least squares residuals, with the height of the posterior proportional to the height of the prior at any point within that set. For example, in a bivariate VAR for supply and demand identified solely by sign restrictions, if the population correlation between the VAR residuals is positive, then even if one has available an infinite sample of data, any inference about the demand elasticity is coming exclusively from the prior distribution. (iii) We provide analytical characterizations of the informative prior distributions for impulse‐response functions that are implicit in the traditional sign‐restriction approach to VARs, and we note, as a special case of result (ii), that the influence of these priors does not vanish asymptotically. (iv) We illustrate how Bayesian inference with informative priors can be both a strict generalization and an unambiguous improvement over frequentist inference in just‐identified models. (v) We propose that researchers need to explicitly acknowledge and defend the role of prior beliefs in influencing structural conclusions and we illustrate how this could be done using a simple model of the U.S. labor market.     

Team incentives,task assignment,and performance: A field experiment

The performance of a work team commonly depends on the effort exerted by the team members as well as on the division of tasks among them. However, when leaders assign tasks to team members, performance is usually not the only consideration. Favouritism, employees' seniority, employees' preferences over tasks, and fairness considerations often play a role as well. Team incentives have the potential to curtail the role of these factors in favor of performance — in particular when the incentive plan includes both the leader and the team members. This paper presents the results of a field experiment designed to study the effects of such team incentives on task assignment and performance. We introduce team incentives in a random subsets of 108 stores of a Dutch retail chain. We find no effect of the incentive, neither on task assignment nor on performance.     

Putting the First Audience First: Conducting Useful Evaluation for a Risk-Related Government Agency

The risk communication practitioner in a government agency has two essential, interdependent tasks. One is to help develop and monitor effective communication programs with various external public audiences. The other task is to do the same thing for the senior government managers whose support is a prerequisite to addressing the first audience. Hence, the second audience–the manager–is really the first. This paper addresses ways in which communication practitioners can satisfy this crucial audience. A profile of these managers suggests that they would find it highly beneficial to have more control over the public problems they encounter, especially in view of the growing pressures to do more with less and demonstrate "customer satisfaction." They would rather avoid crises than manage them. And they would rather have their bosses praise their successes than challenge their budgets or punish their perceived difficulties or failures. Communication practitioners who can help them attain such benefits will find their efforts in great demand. They would be helpful team members who provide timely insights that can make and show agency success. We offer ten ways for communication practitioners to be more useful which focus their current strengths on satisfying senior managers'needs by becoming more valuable members of the program team. By becoming more useful to the senior manager they serve both the agency and its publics.     

Ageing, health and productivity: A challenge for the new millennium

The economic implications of Europe's ageing population are considerable. Without an increase in the size of the working population, reducing the possible fiscal deficits will be difficult. This paper reviews this area of increasing concern for basic, applied and strategic researchers, namely how to increase the age at which people typically stop working, without damaging health or productivity. Chronological age per se may not be a good predictor of health and job performance; rather we should examine various mediating and moderating factors. It is argued that attention should focus on national and organizational policies, management attitudes, training, work demands, the working environment, work organization, the psychosocial environment and health promotion. Older workers may currently be subject to discriminatory practices and to stereotypical and inappropriate attitudes which may adversely affect their health and performance. Flexible and intelligent solutions are required. Many organizations, perhaps reflecting western culture, have not yet evolved to the point where the potential contribution of older people is recognized and allowed to flourish. Once current barriers are removed, and existing and developing knowledge applied, an optimistic picture for older workers emerges.     

Increasing performance appraisal effectiveness: matching task types, appraisal process, and rater training

The search for one best performance appraisal format ignores differences among jobs. A performance appraisal system tailored to fit ratee task characteristics is proposed. This approach, which involves systems designed to deal with tasks where both availability of reliable and valid performance measures and knowledge of the transformation process may be either high or low, is expected to increase the relationship between observational accuracy and accuracy in rating performance, as well as to improve ratees' future performance.     

History matters: The impact of reviews and sales of earlier versions of a product on consumer and expert reviews of new editions

Product reviews are assumed to be based on the observable characteristics of the underlying product. However, in the case of new editions in a product series, the determinants may include signals that originate from the reviews and the sales of editions that precede the focal product edition. Our analysis of 577 video games released in a series between 2000 and 2009 indicates that the reviews of earlier versions carry over to the reviews of the sequel by the same type of reviewer. We also find that expert reviews are influenced by the average review of previous editions by consumers and the average sales of previous editions of the product. This suggests that experts tend to adapt to the taste of consumers. Furthermore, it is found that a lack of consensus, between reviewers of a particular type, weakens the impact of average past reviews, whilst it magnifies the impact of the sales of earlier versions.     

“双推双考”:选准用好干部的有益探索

为政之要,唯在得人.我们党历来高度重视干部选拔任用工作,尤其是近年,中央对如何选人、选什么样的人,提出了一系列新要求.落实中央要求,实现用好的作风选人、选作风好的人,关键靠机制创新.今年6月份以来,我们采用双推双考的方式选拔副县处级领导干部,取得了良好的效果.     

Charismatic leadership and task feedback: A laboratory study of their effects on self-efficacy and task performance

This article examines the interactive effects of two different leadership styles (charismatic and noncharismatic) and three types of task feedback (internal, external, and no feedback) on individuals' self-efficacy and performance quality over four trials of a manufacturing task. Ninety-nine graduate students manufactured electrical wiring harnesses under the direction of either a charismatic or noncharismatic leader (an experimental confederate). Participants exposed to the charismatic leader had similar task performance regardless of task feedback condition, while participants exposed to the noncharismatic leader differed in their task performance depending on whether or not they received task feedback. Self-efficacy mediated the effect of task feedback and its interaction with charismatic leadership on performance. Explanations and implications of the results are discussed.     

Life cycle impact assessment: a challenge for risk analysts.

Modern technology, together with an advanced economy, can provide a good or service in myriad ways, giving us choices on what to produce and how to produce it. To make those choices more intelligently, society needs to know not only the market price of each alternative, but the associated health and environmental consequences. A fair comparison requires evaluating the consequences across the whole "life cycle"--from the extraction of raw materials and processing to manufacture/construction, use, and end-of-life--of each alternative. Focusing on only one stage (e.g., manufacture) of the life cycle is often misleading. Unfortunately, analysts and researchers still have only rudimentary tools to quantify the materials and energy inputs and the resulting damage to health and the environment. Life cycle assessment (LCA) provides an overall framework for identifying and evaluating these implications. Since the 1960s, considerable progress has been made in developing methods for LCA, especially in characterizing, qualitatively and quantitatively, environmental discharges. However, few of these analyses have attempted to assess the quantitative impact on the environment and health of material inputs and environmental discharges Risk analysis and LCA are connected closely. While risk analysis has characterized and quantified the health risks of exposure to a toxicant, the policy implications have not been clear. Inferring that an occupational or public health exposure carries a nontrivial risk is only the first step in formulating a policy response. A broader framework, including LCA, is needed to see which response is likely to lower the risk without creating high risks elsewhere. Even more important, LCA has floundered at the stage of translating an inventory of environmental discharges into estimates of impact on health and the environment. Without the impact analysis, policymakers must revert to some simple rule, such as that all discharges, regardless of which chemical, which medium, and where they are discharged, are equally toxic. Thus, risk analysts should seek LCA guidance in translating a risk analysis into policy conclusions or even advice to those at risk. LCA needs the help of RA to go beyond simplistic assumptions about the implications of a discharge inventory. We demonstrate the need and rationale for LCA, present a brief history of LCA, present examples of the application of this tool, note the limitations of LCA models, and present several methods for incorporating risk assessment into LCA. However, we warn the reader not to expect too much. A comprehensive comparison of the health and environmental implications of alternatives is beyond the state of the art. LCA is currently not able to provide risk analysts with detailed information on the chemical form and location of the environmental discharges that would allow detailed estimation of the risks to individuals due to toxicants. For example, a challenge for risk analysts is to estimate health and other risks where the location and chemical speciation are not characterized precisely. Providing valuable information to decisionmakers requires advances in both LCA and risk analysis. These two disciplines should be closely linked, since each has much to contribute to the other.     

Conversations, coping, & connectedness: a qualitative study of women who have experienced involuntary pregnancy loss

The purpose of this qualitative study was to describe processes and strategies used by women to cope after pregnancy loss. Twenty women with a history of involuntary pregnancy loss were interviewed. All of the women were in the last month of a subsequent pregnancy, married or partnered, and most were EuroAmerican or Asian American and had completed college. Taped interviews, fieldnotes, and analytical notes were transcribed then subsequently coded and developed in individual or team sessions. Construction and confirmation of the categories and related themes derived from the data was a collaborative process. Three themes were revealed that described the coping behaviors used by the women: being myself, connecting with others, and avoiding and pretending. The core concept of connectedness and coping after involuntary pregnancy loss was further validated in this study. The purpose of this study was to describe processes and strategies that facilitate coping for 20 women, pregnant subsequent to an involuntary pregnancy loss (IPL). Involuntary pregnancy loss (IPL) refers to miscarriages, ectopic pregnancies, fetal deaths, and stillbirths (Van & Meleis, 2003). This current study was designed to replicate two prior qualitative studies, with African-American women, by the author (Patterson, 2000; Van, 2001). Based on the author's previous work, a theoretical framework entitled "A Model of Living with Grief after Pregnancy Loss" was constructed (Patterson, 2000). For the current study, a more diverse sample was used to potentially expand the applicability of the Model of Living with Grief after Pregnancy Loss to women who are of races other than African American.     

Testing the 3-factor model of occupational stress: the impact of demands, control and social support on a mail sorting task

This study tests a 3-factor model of occupational stress, which predicts that job demands, job control and social support influence levels of strain. In a laboratory simulation of mail sorting, task demands, control and social supports were manipulated systematically. Pre- and post-task measures of self reported stress and arousal were compared across groups. Performance was measured continuously during the computer task and all 120 participants reported their perceived performance afterwards. Stress was found to be higher and perceived performance was lower in conditions of high demand; this pattern was also observed in conditions of low social support. Contrary to the hypotheses put forward in this paper, task control did not affect stress and the manipulations did not interact to produce elevated stress. However, task performance was poorer in conditions of high demand and in conditions of low control, and there was a significant interaction between demand and control for performance. Work preference measures indicated that the level of fit between ideal and actual social support influenced stress and perceived performance.     

Foreign language skill,anxiety, cultural intelligence and individual task performance in global virtual teams: A cognitive perspective

Global virtual teams (GVTs) operate in a globally dispersed work environment, principally relying on communication and information technologies to achieve work tasks. In this work context, using language effectively is crucial. We utilize the cognitive perspective to explain how foreign language use in a GVT influences individual task performance. This study employs (a) cognitive neuroscience of foreign language processing perspective to explain the relationship between foreign language skills and individual task performance; (b) the theory of cognitive load to explain foreign language anxiety as a pathway that further explains how low-level foreign language skill negatively influences individual task performance; and (c) the theory of intelligence to examine the conditional role of cultural intelligence in the mediation process. Utilizing 294 data pairs (collected from GVT members and their respective supervisors) in a multinational offshoring firm, we found support for the mediation process and the conditional influence of the dimensions of cultural intelligence in reducing the negative effect of foreign language anxiety on individual task performance in GVT.     

Overcoming the dark side of task conflict: Buffering roles of transformational leadership,tenacity, and passion for work

Drawing from the job demands–resources model, this study considers how task conflict reduces employees' job satisfaction, as well as how the negative task conflict–job satisfaction relationship might be buffered by supervisors' transformational leadership and employees' personal resources. Using data from a large organization, the authors show that task conflict reduces job satisfaction, but this effect is weaker at higher levels of transformational leadership, tenacity, and passion for work. The buffering roles of the two personal resources (tenacity and passion for work) are particularly salient when transformational leadership is low. These findings indicate that organizations marked by task-related clashes can counter the accompanying stress by developing adequate leadership and employee resources within their ranks.     

Unfair,uncertain, and unwilling: How decision-making unfairness and unclear job tasks reduce problem-focused voice behavior,unless there is task conflict

In an attempt to expand extant literature devoted to employees' voice behavior, the current research unpacks the connection between their experience of procedural unfairness, such that organizational decision-making lacks transparency, and their problem-focused voice behavior. In this link, the authors predict that job ambiguity functions as a mediator, and coworker task conflict takes a moderating role. Survey data, collected among employees in a large Portuguese retail organization, affirm that perceptions about unfair decision policies can curtail employees’ propensities to raise their voice about organizational failures, because they develop the belief that their employer is failing to provide sufficient job-related information. If they can exchange conflicting viewpoints with others though, this detrimental process might not proceed. Organizations should take care to avoid accusations of unclear job roles, because they create a route by which frustrations about opaque decision-making can escalate into employee complacency; they also should encourage productive idea clashes within their ranks to help block that route.