The effect of maternal employment on teenage childbearing

This paper estimates the effect of a mothers employment on her teenage daughters likelihood of birth. Using data from the United States, the National Education Longitudinal Survey of 1988, the author finds that teenagers with working mothers who attend relatively wealthy schools are more likely (77%) to have a birth compared to teens who attend similar schools but have non-working mothers. In contrast, teenagers with working mothers who attend relatively poor schools are less likely (18%) to have a birth compared to teens who attend similar schools but have non-working mothers.I am indebted to Marcia Carlson, Thomas DeLeire, Angela Fertig, Brian Jacob, Darren Lubotsky, Scott Lynch, Susan Mayer, Sara McLanahan, Robert Michael, German Rodriguez, seminar participants at Princeton University and The University of Chicago, and two anonymous referees for insightful suggestions made on earlier versions of this paper. I also gratefully acknowledge financial support from a Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research Graduate Fellowship, a Robert R. McCormick Tribune Foundation Graduate Fellowship, the Bendheim-Thoman Center for Research on Child Wellbeing at Princeton University, and the Office of Population Research at Princeton University, which is supported by center grant 5 P30 HD32030 from the NICHD. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

On social security financial crisis

We indicate that financial crisis in social security programs might be endogenous because social security affects fertility and human capital's decisions and thus, the aggregate growth rate of the economy. These effects lead to an endogenous erosion of the financial basis of the PAYG social security program so that, as a consequence, the PAYG system is not sustainable and it requires continuous increases in the social security tax rate. I received helpful comments in an earlier version of this paper from G.S. Becker, Larry Sjaastad, two anonymous referees and participants at seminars at Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile and The University of Chicago. Remaining errors are my own responsibility. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions

During the last two decades fertility rates have decreased and have become positively correlated with female participation rates across OECD countries. I use a panel of 23 OECD nations to study how different labor market arrangements shaped these trends. High unemployment and unstable contracts, common in Southern Europe, depress fertility, particularly of younger women. To increase lifetime income though early skill-acquisition and minimize unemployment risk, young women postpone (or abandon) childbearing. Further, both a large share of public employment, by providing employment stability, and generous maternity benefits linked to previous employment, such as those in Scandinavia, boost fertility of the 25–29 and 30–34 year old women.Financial help from a CRB grant from the University of Illinois is gratefully acknowledged. I would like to thank Carles Boix, Barry Chiswick, Carmel Chiswick, Evelyn Lehrer, three anonymous referees and seminar participants at ESPE 2000 (Bonn), Illinois Economic Meetings 2000 (Chicago), Simposi dAnalisi Economica 2000 (Barcelona), 2001 Winter meetings of the Econometric Society in New Orleans, ESPE 2001 (Athens), Braga (Portugal), University of Chicago, De Paul University, PAA 2002 (Atlanta) for helpful comments; Gosta Esping-Andersen for providing some data and Cristina Mora for excellent research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Meta-analysis of the impact of age structure on fertility

The paper uses a meta-analysis to comparatively evaluate the literature addressing the aggregate relationship between a populations age structure and fertility, as hypothesized by Richard Easterlin. The analysis is based on 334 estimated effects retrieved from 19 studies. The results suggest that several factors undermine the empirical support of the Easterlinian age structure/fertility link. These include the neglect of income, the use of relative cohort size to characterize the age structure, mis-specifications of the relevant age-cohorts, as well as the functional form and estimation technique. The results also suggest that the sample of published estimates possibly suffers from two types of publication bias, an under-representation of insignificant effects for small samples, and bias towards supportive effects in the earlier years followed by a bias towards negative effects as the literature matured.All correspondence to: Brigitte Waldorf. The authors appreciate the insightful comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers. The research also benefited from discussions with participants of the International Colloquium on Meta-analysis in Economics, Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, December 2002. Finally, we would like to thank David Brown, Meagan Cahill, Angela Donelson, Calvin Farris, and Melaney Seacat from the University of Arizona for their research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

The pattern of birth spacing during Taiwan's demographic transition

This paper considers the impact of an extended family structure on the fertility behavior of married women in Taiwan. A sequential duration model is applied to identify the differences in fertility behavior during the early and latter stages of a woman's reproductive period. Heterogeneity adjustments which correct the respondent-specific characteristics are also implemented. It is found that living with the husband's parents has an impact on the wife's fertility only at the early stage of her childbearing period, and that the subjective son preferences together with the objective fact of no son in the previous 2 births do force a wife to expedite her third birth. These results are robust across different cohorts during the demographic transition and under different specifications of hazard functions. We thank an anonymous referee for his or her valuable comments and suggestions. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Racial differences in infant mortality by cause of death: The impact of birth weight and maternal age

This research examines racial disparities in infant mortality, overall and separately according to cause of death. Using linked birth and death records for the 1975 cohort of live births in Florida, racial differences are initially described and then explained statistically as a product of the distribution of births by birth weight and maternal age. The impact of birth weight is more pronounced than is the effect of maternal age. The analysis suggests the potential utility of examining infant mortality separately by cause of death. Based on the findings, we argue for systematic research focused on factors affecting birth weight.     

A step in another direction: Looking for maternal genetic and environmental effects on racial differences in birth weight

To advance research on birth weight differences between black and white infants, it may be useful to study maternal effects. These effects present a set of risk factors that are largely unrelated to those that are presently under investigation and fail to explain the gap in birth weight; empirical findings suggest their involvement. Although maternal effects can be environmental, as illustrated by recent findings, genetic effects could be important as well because gene frequencies are known to differ across the "racial" groups as studied by birth weight researchers, and maternal genes can exert a causal effect on birth weight.     

Fertility and education premiums

This study examines households fertility variations in response to expected permanent shifts in the return to education. Wage premiums measurethe return to education because their long-run movements are driven by factors exogenous to the fertility process. The results indicate that high education parents fertility responds negatively to changes in the expected return to college and negatively to changes in the expected return to high school. On the other hand, the fertility of low education parents does not vary with changes to expected returns to education. These results can be consistently interpreted within a standard quality/quantity model of endogenous fertility.I am grateful to seminar participants at Penn State University, Virginia Tech. University, the Economic Demography Workshop at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America and the Mid-West Macroeconomics Conference and well as to a helpful referee. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Sex selection and fertility in a dynamic model of conception and abortion

This paper investigates the effect of prenatal sex selection on fertility through a stochastic dynamic model with uncertainty in conception as well as in gender, where a woman makes decisions on conception and abortion with or without gender detection tests (i.e. sex-selective or sex-unselective abortion). The paper shows that, when the cost of gender detection test falls, the sex ratio at birth rises due to more selective abortions, but fertility can rise or fall with rising sex ratio. Fertility may rise (fall) if there are more (less) women giving up unselective abortions for selective abortions than women giving up childbirths without test for selective abortions. Similarly the paper shows that the sex ratio can rise or fall, when fertility decreases as the cost of children increases. I test these propositions as well as their implications against micro survey data on the pregnancy history of Korean women.Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Biodiversity decline and population externalities

To understand the problem of the global biodiversity decline, we set up a north–south model of population and income determination. Although biodiversity decline is mainly caused by primitive agricultural activities in some poor countries, we show that policies of resource management or Pigouvian taxes, targeted solely at rectifying such activities, are often ineffective. Since the production activities in these poor countries are correlated with parents’ fertility decisions, any efficient rectifications must involve a change in parents’ reproduction choice as well. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang     

How does social security affect economic growth? Evidence from cross-country data

This paper investigates how social security interacts with growth and growth determinants (savings, human capital investment, and fertility). Our empirical investigation finds that the estimated coefficient on social security is significantly negative in the fertility equation, insignificant in the saving equation, and significantly positive in the growth and education equations. By contrast, the estimated coefficient on growth is insignificant in the social security equation. The results suggest that social security may indeed be conducive to growth through tipping the trade-off between the number and quality of children toward the latter.All correspondence to Junsen Zhang. We would like to thank the editor, two anonymous referees, Jim Davies, Frank Denton, Se-Jik Kim, and Mike McAleer for helpful comments and suggestions. Any remaining omissions and errors are the authors responsibility. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis

This paper develops a flexible framework for modeling population's role in economic growth by assessing and extending a rendering suggested by several Harvard economists. Our framework includes a ``productivity' model explaining output-per-worker growth and a ``translation' model translating that growth into per-capita terms. We specify a core economic model and several ``enriched' demographic variants that include dependency, size, and density. Regressions using a cross-country panel spanning the period 1960-1995 reveal that combined impacts of demographic change have accounted for approximately 20% of per capita output growth impacts, with larger shares in Asia and Europe. An earlier draft of this paper was presented at a conference on ``Population Change, Labor Market Transition and Economic Development in Asia,' Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, 6–9 December 2002. A pre-publication version of this paper will be presented at a joint conference (by COE/JEPA) entitled ``Towards a new economic paradigm: Declining population growth, labor market transition and economic development under globalization,' held at the Awaji Yumebutai International Conference Center, Kobe, Japan, 17–19 December 2005. We have benefited from comments by Michelle Connolly, Andrew Mason, Pietro Peretto, Warren Sanderson, Alessandro Tarozzi, Jeffrey Williamson, and two anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Time series analysis and stochastic forecasting: An econometric study of mortality and life expectancy

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee-Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning. All correspondence to Frank T. Denton. This paper is a revised version of one presented at the Annual Congress of the European Society for Population Economics, Athens, Greece, June 2001. The underlying work was carried out as part of the SEDAP (Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population) Research Program supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Statistics Canada and the Canadian Institute for Health Information. Ronald Lee provided comments that were very helpful in revising an earlier version of the paper. We thank him and participants at the ESPE session at which that version was presented. We thank also the Journal's anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Hidden information problems in the design of family allowances

We consider the optimal determination of family allowances in a model where some of the parents have higher ability to raise children than others. First-best policy gives both types of parents the same level of utility. If neither parental ability nor parental actions are fully observable, however, the policy maker has to take into account the incentive-compatibility constraint that more able parents should not find it profitable to mis-represent their true ability by investing less in their children, and having a lower number of children. The second-best policy induces more able parents to have the first-best number of children, and to invest in each child at the first-best level. Less able parents are induced to have fewer children than in first best, and will underinvest in each child. Whether the government should subsidize more the more able parents, or the less able ones, depends on the properties of the cost function. In second best, however, less able parents will end up with lower utility than more able parents whatever the cost function.All correspondence to Annalisa Luporini. The paper has benefitted from comments by three anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Maternal Education, Birth Weight, and Infant Mortality in the United States

This research determines whether the observed decline in infant mortality with socioeconomic level, operationalized as maternal education (dichotomized as college or more, versus high school or less), is due to its “indirect” effect (operating through birth weight) and/or to its “direct” effect (independent of birth weight). The data used are the 2001 U.S. national African American, Mexican American, and European American birth cohorts by sex. The analysis explores the birth outcomes of infants undergoing normal and compromised fetal development separately by using covariate density defined mixture of logistic regressions (CDDmlr). Among normal births, mean birth weight increases significantly (by 27–108 g) with higher maternal education. Mortality declines significantly (by a factor of 0.40–0.96) through the direct effect of education. The indirect effect of education among normal births is small but significant in three cohorts. Furthermore, the indirect effect of maternal education tends to increase mortality despite improved birth weight. Among compromised births, education has small and inconsistent effects on birth weight and infant mortality. Overall, our results are consistent with the view that the decrease in infant death by socioeconomic level is not mediated by improved birth weight. Interventions targeting birth weight may not result in lower infant mortality.     

Welfare participation and welfare dependence among the unemployed

We regard individual unemployment duration as an important determinant of individuals welfare dependence. Welfare receipt is modelled for a unique data set of 4,655 Finnish unemployed individuals. A two-stage binomial hurdle model is applied, and estimations are made by both ML and GMM. Disregarding the full interrelation between unemployment and welfare clearly underestimates the importance of the former. Unemployment has a clear impact on both the probability of welfare participation and on welfare dependence among recipients. Using a finite mixture model we find that there is a small minority of unemployed welfare recipients who are locked-in in welfare dependence.All correspondence to Maria Melkersson. We thank participants at the ESPE 2001 conference, João Santos Silva and two anonymous referees for valuable comments. Financial support from Rektor för Åbo Akademi is gratefully acknowledged (Saarela). Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Maternal Smoking and Infant Low Birth Weight: Exploring the Biological Mechanism Through the Mother’s Pre-pregnancy Weight Status

Maternal smoking has been found to adversely affect birth outcomes, such as increasing the odds of having low birth weight infants. However, the mechanisms explaining how a mother’s smoking is linked to a child’s low birth weight status are underexplored. This study merged two nationally representative datasets in the United States (US)—the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and the NLSY79 Child and Young Adult (NLSYCYA)—to examine whether maternal weight status before pregnancy serves as a biological mechanism. We applied a recently developed mediation analysis technique to a data sample of 6550 mother–child pairs, and we compared the estimated coefficients across nested probability models. We found that maternal body mass index (BMI) (in kg/m²), a widely used measure of weight status, reduces the odds of delivering a low birth weight infant, and this mechanism explains about 10.2% of the adverse impact of maternal smoking on having a low birth weight child. Moreover, when categorizing maternal pre-pregnancy BMI into four weight statuses (i.e., underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese), we found that, in contrast to mothers with normal weight status, underweight mothers are 70% more likely to have a low birth weight child. Our findings suggest that maternal weight status plays a role in understanding how maternal smoking affects low birth weight outcome, indicating that maintaining a proper weight status for women who plan to give birth may be a possible policy to promote infant health.

     

Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?

I compare the predictions of three variants of the altruistic parent model of Barro and Becker for the relationship between child mortality and fertility. In the baseline model fertility choice is continuous, and there is no uncertainty over the number of surviving children. The baseline model is contrasted to an extension with discrete fertility choice and stochastic mortality and a setup with sequential fertility choice. The quantitative predictions of the models are remarkably similar. While in each model the total fertility rate falls as child mortality declines, the number of surviving children increases. The results suggest that factors other than declining infant and child mortality are responsible for the large decline in net reproduction rates observed in industrialized countries over the last century. Financial support by the National Science Foundation (grant SES-0217051) and the UCLA Academic Senate is gratefully acknowledged. I thank Sebnem Kalemli-Oczan, Rodrigo Soares, and two anonymous referees for comments that helped to substantially improve the paper. Olesya Baker and Ilya Berger provided excellent research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Did Australia’s Baby Bonus Increase Fertility Intentions and Births?

In May 2004, the Australian government announced a “Baby Bonus” policy, paying women an initial A$3,000 per new child. We use household panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (N = 14,932) and a simultaneous equations approach to analyze the effects of this bonus on fertility intentions and ultimately births. The results indicate that opportunity costs influence intentions and births in predictable ways. Fertility intentions rose after the announcement of the Baby Bonus, and the birth rate is estimated to have risen modestly as a result. The marginal cost to the government for an additional birth is estimated to be at least A$3,000 per new child. We use household panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (N = 14,932) and a simultaneous equations approach to analyze the effects of this bonus on fertility intentions and ultimately births. The results indicate that opportunity costs influence intentions and births in predictable ways. Fertility intentions rose after the announcement of the Baby Bonus, and the birth rate is estimated to have risen modestly as a result. The marginal cost to the government for an additional birth is estimated to be at least A126,000.     

The misuse of biology in demographic research on racial/ethnic differences: A reply to van den oord and rowe

In an article in the August 2000 issue of Demography titled "Racial Differences in Birth Health Risk: A Quantitative Genetic Approach," van den Oord and Rowe attempted to study the genetic and environmental factors contributing to the black/white gap in infant birth weight. Their findings indicate that this difference may be explained by shared environmental influences rather than by fetal genes. Yet the authors insisted in their conclusions that a strong genetic component still must play a role in determining the racial gap in birth weight, if only through maternal effects. The incompatibility between the authors' findings and their conclusions is due largely to a weakness in their conceptualization of the relationship between race and biology. Their insistence that racial groups represent discrete genetic entities, coupled with a failure to account for interactions between biological and environmental processes, illustrates the methodological and ethical problems that threaten future interdisciplinary research on racial/ethnic disparities in health.