考虑损失规避的期望效用投资组合模型

投资者行为的本质特征会影响投资者对不同风险资产的投资决策。本文从期望效用最大化的角度研究不同风险资产的配置问题,并将人的心理活动引入了投资组合模型之中。论文借鉴了损失规避这个重要的概念,将投资者的效用函数表示为期末财富和财富变化的函数;建立了基于损失规避的最优投资组合模型;并对我国上海股票市场进行了实证分析,得到了在财富变化的不同关心程度下的组合前沿。     

企业捐赠的伤害保险效应研究

基于我国上市公司被证券监管机构公开谴责的事件,探讨我国企业捐赠是否具有伤害保险效应,即企业捐赠是否能够减缓公司丑闻发生时股东财富的损失.结果显示,上市公司被公开谴责时,相对于前期不参与捐赠的企业,参与捐赠企业的累计异常收益率较高;企业捐赠金额越大,累计异常收益率越高.由此可知,企业捐赠能够减缓公司丑闻发生时股东财富的损失,我国企业捐赠具有伤害保险效应.     

农户对农业保险支付意愿的影响因素分析及支付意愿测算——以湖北省兴山县烟叶保险为例

本文以湖北省兴山县烟叶保险为例,采用CVM方法获取调查数据,并利用PCE模型分析得出了影响农户对烟叶保险支付意愿的主要因素包括:对烟叶保险重要性的认知程度、自然灾害造成的烟叶生产的平均损失金额、农户年龄和年家庭纯收入。同时,本文还测算出了保额为每亩100元时,农户对烟叶保险的支付意愿平均值为6.43元/亩。这些结论为解决农业保险保费筹集问题提供了思路。     

城镇居民住房资产对家庭消费的财富效应

本文采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010年和2012年的数据,并利用固定效应模型估计城镇居民家庭住房资产的财富效应。研究结果表明,城镇居民住房资产价值变化对家庭消费的影响总体上并不显著,即城镇居民家庭住房资产的"财富效应"在总体上并不存在。文章对实证结果进行简要解释的基础上提出了相关政策建议。     

重尾索赔条件下现代风险模型的破产概率估计:多险种混合情形

破产概率是非寿险保险风险理论的核心问题。与经典的Cramér-Lundberg模型相比, 由Li Zehui等建立的现代风险模型更为准确地描述了非寿险保险运营的主要特征, 对现实保险业务具有较好的解释力。本文基于现代风险模型, 考虑保险公司多个险种混合经营这一更为现实的情形, 在索赔额服从正则尾分布条件下获得了破产概率的渐近等价估计。我们发现, 在具有大额索赔特征的多个险种混合的条件下, 公司面临的极端索赔风险将由索赔额分布尾部最厚的那些险种决定, 而索赔额分布尾部相对较薄的那些险种的影响作用将被淹没。该结论的有效性可用MATLAB数值模拟得到理想的验证。本文结果是对风险模型研究的重要推广, 也为多险种混合情形下保险公司的风险控制与初始保证金界定提供了依据。     

非理性预期对信用衍生产品定价的影响——美国次贷危机的启示

现代经典金融理论和精妙优美的数学模型难以解释和预言2000-2007年美国房地产泡沫和信用危机.次贷危机很大程度上是大量投资者行为的结果,它反映了投资者对未来经济走势的预期.而以往的信用风险模型恰恰忽视了人的因素.通过将行为金融中的主观非理性预期引入信用风险的结构化模型,建立了内生的动态均衡模型.研究发现,投资者的不同预期造成他们处于不同的交易地位,产生相对财富转移.相对财富转移扩大了金融资产的波动率,导致了金融资产定价偏差;同时也给对冲操作带来了风险.在投资者的"美好"预期无法持续时,可能诱发金融危机.因此引导投资者理性预期是减少金融市场动荡的有效手段,研究对我国金融体系健康稳定发展具有一定借鉴作用.     

适应性市场假说及其在中国资本市场的实证

金融危机近些年爆发频繁,传统市场理论如有效市场假说和行为金融面对复杂的现实金融世界未能给出合理解释.Lo提出的适应性市场假说则弥合了这两个学派的分歧,逐渐引起了学术界的重视.本文尝试从动态市场效率、时变贝塔和技术交易策略演变这三个角度对适应性市场假说能否解释我国资本市场进行实证研究.研究发现:我国股票市场效率在动态变化,无效的时段与金融危机或政策巨变等重大事件联系密切;股市风格指数贝塔随市场环境变化而改变;技术交易策略绩效随投资者适应环境变化而演变.研究结果表明,适应性市场假说相比有效市场假说和经典资本资产定价模型,能够更好地解释我国资本市场上述现象.最后对投资者如何根据市场环境变化制定适应性投资策略给出几点建议.     

基于VaR的多阶段金融资产配置模型

本文提出了基于VaR的多阶段金融资产配置模型。进一步以我国经济环境为依托,考虑了未来各种资产收益、工资变动及物价变动的不确定性,对这一模型进行了仿真计算,并与静态模型在最优性上进行了比较,得出了动态模型优于静态模型的结论。在期望财富相同的情况下,基于VaR的多阶段资产配置模型比静态模型的期望损失成本低,承担的风险更小。     

论指数与指数化投资及ETF基金的发展

2014年被称为中国财富管理元年。首先,随着行业间的相互开放与渗透,财富管理主体数量将快速扩容,市场化的竞争进一步加剧,银行、信托、保险和券商四分天下的财富管理格局或将出现结构性变化;其次,加强监管、放松管制成为行业发展的方向,产品种类日益丰富,业务创新速度加快;第三,财富管理的需求越发多元化,财富在不同资产类别间的配置显得更加重要;最后,各类财富管理机构在差异化竞争中培育出各自的核心竞争力,既有大而全的领头机构,也     

强制性约束下企业信息安全投资与网络保险的最优决策分析

研究了强制性约束下企业信息安全投资和网络保险的最优决策问题,对比了可观测企业损失和不可观测企业损失两种情形下基于破产概率约束的最优安全投资和网络保险保费厘定。研究结果表明：在可观测损失和公平保费情况下,当最大化单个企业的期望效用时,存在最优安全投资额,并且政府补贴和强制性约束都可以激励企业增加安全投资;但是当最大化所有企业效用时,只有强制性约束才能增加企业安全投资使得总效用最大化,并且企业的最优安全投资与损失的可观测程度无关。在不可观测损失情况下,当最大化单个企业期望效用时,企业的安全投资增大,而最大化所有企业效用时,存在正网络外部性,即任何企业均不敢轻易的减少安全投资,即使同在一个网络中的其他企业减少了安全投资。此外,在破产概率约束下,随着保费的增加,当损失可观测时,企业的安全投资也增加,但期望效用减少了;而当损失不可观测时,企业的安全投资和期望效用均减少。本文所得结论对政府设定强制性标准,以及企业利用安全投资和网络保险进行信息安全风险控制具有较好的参考价值。     

An Insurance Model for Risk Management of Process Facilities

Most existing risk management models for process industries do not consider the effect of insurance coverage, which results in an overestimation of overall risk. A model is presented in this article to study the effect of insurance coverage of health, safety, environmental, and business risks. The effect of insurance recovery is modeled through the application of adjustment factors by considering the stochastic factors affecting insurance recovery. The insurance contract's conditions, deductibles, and policy limits are considered in developing the insurance recovery adjustment factors. Copula functions and Monte Carlo simulations are used to develop the distribution of the aggregate loss by considering the dependence among loss classes. A case study is used to demonstrate both the practical application of the proposed insurance model to improve management decisions, and the mitigating effect of insurance to minimize the residual risk.     

Shadow Insurance

Life insurers use reinsurance to move liabilities from regulated and rated companies that sell policies to shadow reinsurers, which are less regulated and unrated off‐balance‐sheet entities within the same insurance group. U.S. life insurance and annuity liabilities ceded to shadow reinsurers grew from $11 billion in 2002 to $364 billion in 2012. Life insurers using shadow insurance, which capture half of the market share, ceded 25 cents of every dollar insured to shadow reinsurers in 2012, up from 2 cents in 2002. By relaxing capital requirements, shadow insurance could reduce the marginal cost of issuing policies and thereby improve retail market efficiency. However, shadow insurance could also reduce risk‐based capital and increase expected loss for the industry. We model and quantify these effects based on publicly available data and plausible assumptions.     

The Emergence of Flood Insurance in Canada: Navigating Institutional Uncertainty

Flood insurance has remained unavailable in Canada based on an assessment that it lacks economic viability. In response to Canada's costliest flood event to date in 2013, the Canadian insurance industry has started to develop a framework to expand existing property insurance to cover flood damage. Research on flood insurance has overlooked why and how insurance systems transition to expand insurance coverage without evidence of economic viability. This article will address this gap through a case study on the emergence of flood insurance in Canada, and the approach to its expansion. Between 2013 and 2016, insurance industry officials representing over 60% of premiums collected in Canada were interviewed. These interviews revealed that flood insurance is being expanded in response to institutional pressure, specifically external stakeholder expectations that the insurance industry will adopt a stronger role in managing flood risk through coverage of flood damage. Further evidence of this finding is explored by assessing the emergence of a unique flood insurance model that involves a risk‐adjusted and optional product along with an expansion of government policy supporting flood risk mitigation. This approach attempts to balance industry concerns about economic viability with institutional pressure to reduce flood risk through insurance. This analysis builds on existing research by providing the first scholarly analysis of flood insurance in Canada, important “empirical” teeth to existing conceptual analysis on the availability of flood insurance, and the influence of institutional factors on risk analysis within the insurance sector.     

The Complementary Roles of Mitigation and Insurance in Managing Catastrophic Risks

This paper examines the impact that insurance coupled with specific risk mitigation measures (RMMs) could have on reducing losses from hurricanes and earthquakes as well as improving the solvency position of insurers who provide coverage against these hazards. We first explore why relatively few individuals adopt cost-effective RMMs by reporting on the results of empirical studies and controlled laboratory studies. We then investigate the impact that an RMM has on both the expected losses and those from a worst case scenario in two model cities—Oakland (an earthquake-prone area) and Miami/Dade County (a hurricane-prone area) which were constructed respectively with the assistance of two modeling firms. The paper then explores three programs for forging a meaningful public-private sector partnership: well-enforced building codes, insurance premium reductions linked with long-term loans, and lower deductibles on insurance policies tied to mitigation. We conclude by briefly examining four issues for future research on linking mitigation with insurance.     

An agent-based model for evaluating reforms of the National Flood Insurance Program: A benchmarked model applied to Jamaica Bay,NYC

Coastal flood risk is expected to increase as a result of climate change effects, such as sea level rise, and socioeconomic growth. To support policymakers in making adaptation decisions, accurate flood risk assessments that account for the influence of complex adaptation processes on the developments of risks are essential. In this study, we integrate the dynamic adaptive behavior of homeowners within a flood risk modeling framework. Focusing on building-level adaptation and flood insurance, the agent-based model (DYNAMO) is benchmarked with empirical data for New York City, USA. The model simulates the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and frequently proposed reforms to evaluate their effectiveness. The model is applied to a case study of Jamaica Bay, NY. Our results indicate that risk-based premiums can improve insurance penetration rates and the affordability of insurance compared to the baseline NFIP market structure. While a premium discount for disaster risk reduction incentivizes more homeowners to invest in dry-floodproofing measures, it does not significantly improve affordability. A low interest rate loan for financing risk-mitigation investments improves the uptake and affordability of dry-floodproofing measures. The benchmark and sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the behavioral component of our model matches empirical data and provides insights into the underlying theories and choices that autonomous agents make.     

逆向选择条件下带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型及其Pareto改进性研究

为了更有效的规避影响保险市场交易效率的逆向选择问题，本文分投保人风险类型为两种和多种情形建立了带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型，首次提出可以用奖励金和惩罚金有效甄别投保人的风险类型。该模型根据投保人第一个保险期内的索赔情况在第二个保险期对其进行奖励或惩罚，高风险类型的投保人如果选择为低风险类型投保人设计的保险契约，则其在第二阶段受到惩罚的概率要远远大于得到奖励的概率，即风险越高的投保人越害怕惩罚金，因此所建模型满足斯彭斯-莫里斯分离条件。带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型中保险公司的期望利润仍然为0，并不会给投保人带来额外的经济负担，却能够实现对传统部分保险契约简单重复两次的严格帕累托改进。最后采用一个算例说明了该模型的有效性。     

双随机复合泊松损失下巨灾债券定价与数值模拟

上世纪90年代出现的巨灾债券是以规避巨灾财产损失为目的的新型非传统风险转移金融创新工具之一,在我国有良好的发展前景。本文针对巨灾风险事件呈现出周期性与不规则的上升特征,构建了BDT过程用以刻画巨灾风险的抵达过程,并基于风险中性测度技术,在随机利率环境与双随机复合泊松损失条件下,导出了巨灾债券定价公式。进而结合伦敦同业银行拆借利率数据与美国保险服务所提供的PCS损失指数估计并校正了模型参数。最后,通过数值模拟检验了利率风险与巨灾风险如何影响巨灾债券的价格,同时验证了定价模型的可行性。     

An Equilibrium Model of Health Insurance Provision and Wage Determination

We investigate the effect of employer‐provided health insurance on job mobility rates and economic welfare using a search, matching, and bargaining framework. In our model, health insurance coverage decisions are made in a cooperative manner that recognizes the productivity effects of health insurance as well as its nonpecuniary value to the employee. The resulting equilibrium is one in which not all employment matches are covered by health insurance, wages at jobs providing health insurance are larger (in a stochastic sense) than those at jobs without health insurance, and workers at jobs with health insurance are less likely to leave those jobs, even after conditioning on the wage rate. We estimate the model using the 1996 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, and find that the employer‐provided health insurance system does not lead to any serious inefficiencies in mobility decisions.