Environmental forecasting and non-profit professional organizations

To undertake any kind of realistic planning activity, it is useful to have a long-term environmental forecast which provides the planner with an overall perspective. The planner will be functioning over the next decade in a very dynamic, complex and challenging political, economic, technological and social environment, and will require very effective planning efforts to cope with such changing environment. This article presents an approach and methodology that a planner could use in his/her organization's planning process. To the best of our knowledge, very few organizations—profit and non-profit oriented—undertake a formal long-term environmental forecast. This article might encourage several planners to examine this area of long range planning in their respective organizations. The long- term environmental forecasting approach presented in this article could be applied by planners in all types of organizations—small or large, profit oriented or non-profit oriented, old or new. This article, however, is based on a study which the authors did for a non-profit organization.     

From organization development to corporate development at Trebor

This article is a case history of a medium-sized, family-owned business where the corporate planning activity has been taken over by the Executive Board, which is concerned with a careful definition and dissemination of company strategy and with focusing action in the form of long-term planning projects. The organizational learning approach is evolutionary and incremental, involving—as in the Japanese style of management— many levels in project development.     

Planning acquisitions and mergers

This article considers the problems and opportunities associated with acquisitions and mergers. The author argues that despite the low level of activity in this area at the present time, growth oriented companies should be considering their related long-term objectives. An appropriate acquisition may successfully project a company on a growth path which it could not hope to achieve by organic growth alone. On the other hand ill-conceived acquisitions may just as speedily drive a company to disaster. The failure rate in acquisitions can be reduced by a planned approach. This article aims to explore the steps which a company ought to take from the time it decides to expand by acquisition to the time when the acquisition is integrated into the film.     

Long-term planning in the U.S.S.R.

This article illustrates the U.S.S.R. approach to long-term planning and the relationship of cooperative planning within the Comecon countries. The conception of planning which the author puts forward is comprehensive and is illustrative of what is being attempted at the macro level in the centrally planned economies.     

Airline corporate planning— a conceptual framework

In the current economic recession, efficient planning is of paramount importance. This paper constructs a conceptual framework for the long term corporate planning of an airline: the framework suggested is an integrated approach rather than the divisional one that is widespread in the industry. The paper attempts to identify the long-term objectives of an airline, the various types of constraints under which it must operate, and the decision variables that are under its control.     

Change of Thought: Findings on Planning for Shrinkage from a Regional Design Competition

Shrinkage or ‘no growth’ is expected to condition the long-term perspective of many Western cities and regions. Planning for shrinkage differs substantively from planning for growth and therefore calls for a change of thought in spatial planning. In our paper, we analyse how planning professionals responded to a ‘planning for shrinkage’ challenge in a regional design competition. We found that they fully adapted to the shrinking perspective, took a strategic approach, and promoted a leading role for local inhabitants. Collaboration with local inhabitants and entrepreneurs, creating new alliances, and timing emerge as key themes for planning professionals in planning for shrinkage.     

Development, application, and evaluation of an "action-reaction" planning method.

It is difficult to design and implement new public policies and programs, at least partially owing to the fact that few useful methods are available to help shape the planning, decision-making, and implementation processes required for change. Planning often tends to focus on wishful thinking rather than on a realistic assessment of the probable outcomes. In this article we describe an action-reaction approach to planning that explicitly recognizes the restrictions on program impact arising from the system in which change is being attempted. A hypothetical example shows the application of this method to the design of a health-care delivery program. The article concludes with a discussion of the long-term uses of the data base that may be compiled with this method.     

A Hierarchical Production Planning and Scheduling Model

A hierarchical production planning and scheduling system is developed that integrates planning decisions into a unified and consistent framework. A three-tiered approach is used to address long-term inventory control, short-term production planning, and daily scheduling tasks. A product grouping scheme introduces uniformity into the solution process and simplifies overall model complexity. Results of the model implementation are reported.     

A decision support methodology for strategic planning in maritime transportation

This paper presents a decision support methodology for strategic planning in tramp and industrial shipping. The proposed methodology combines simulation and optimization, where a Monte Carlo simulation framework is built around an optimization-based decision support system for short-term routing and scheduling. The simulation proceeds by considering a series of short-term routing and scheduling problems using a rolling horizon principle where information is revealed as time goes by. The approach is flexible in the sense that it can easily be configured to provide decision support for a wide range of strategic planning problems, such as fleet size and mix problems, analysis of long-term contracts and contract terms. The methodology is tested on a real case for a major Norwegian shipping company. The methodology provided valuable decision support on important strategic planning problems for the shipping company.     

Long range planning for universities

Slower growth in the demand for university places, increasing volatility in the composition of this demand and governmental cut-backs in higher education have created new pressures on university managers. Universities have, however, not adopted long-term strategic planning as a means of handling these problems.

Despite obvious differences of mission and market, the university shares all the problems that business concerns have in adapting to a changing environment. A systematic approach to strategic planning in universities is outlined. The system represents an interesting case study of long range planning for non-profit making service institutions, an expanding sector of today's economy.     

A decision support tool for planning bills-of-material

In this paper, the framework for a decision support tool for planning bills-of-material is presented. This tool generates a set of modular planning bills-of-material from the manufacturing bills-of-material for a company. The tool attempts to consolidate options in a product family which are specific. The force with which the tool attempts to consolidate two or more options is dependent on the financial control parameters. As well as having a minimum amount of common material, the financial value of such a match must also be of sufficiently high value to be worth planning together. The tool also examines the long-term inventory effect of planning two or more options as common.     

一种决策者判断一致性的聚类方法

对于产量为模糊区间数的生产计划群决策问题,考虑不同产品生产的优先度和决策者权重对决策者判断一致性度量的影响,给出了相对加权一致度的一种计算方法。当群决策的结果不一致时,提出了依据相对加权一致度对决策者进行聚类的方法,并给出了每一类决策者决策结果的综合方法。最后通过算例说明了方法的应用过程。     

Quantitatively Representing Nonlinear Disaster Recovery

This article provides a new technique for quantitatively characterizing the progress of recovery operations in the aftermath of a disaster event. The approach extends previous research on measuring dynamic, or adaptive, disaster resilience by developing a robust approach for characterizing nonlinear disaster recovery. In doing so, it enables a more accurate mathematical representation of different categories of recovery behavior and provides support for a much broader application of existing theory. Because the new approach inherits the ability to compare the relative behavior of multiple scenarios simultaneously, it also can serve as the basis for analytically comparing the expected performance of different plans for recovery operations. Practical application of the technique is demonstrated and discussed in the context of recovering electrical power after Hurricane Sandy struck the New York metropolitan area.     

基于小波分析的石油价格长期趋势预测方法及其实证研究

本文将小波方法引入到油价长期趋势的预测中,利用小波多尺度分析的功能,提出了一种可以较为准确地根据油价时序列预测其未来长期走势的方法。这种方法的优点在于可以准确地提取油价的长期趋势,从总体上把握油价的非线性波动特征,从而能够很好地利用油价时间序列的历史数据,开展对未来一段时期内的多步预测。实证研究中,对Brent油价开展了时间跨度为1年的趋势预测,并将预测结果与ARIMA、GARCH、Holtwinters等方法得到的结果进行了比较,表明了基于小波分析的长期趋势预测法的预测能力是其他方法所不能比拟的,反映了本文所建立的石油价格长期趋势预测方法的有效性。     

Editorial for special issue on: humanitarian operations management

Abstract

Over the past decades, there has been increasing interest in studying humanitarian operations management. The mismatch between global humanitarian needs and the resources available, together with chronic vulnerability in many parts of the world, continues to have a direct bearing on the lives of millions of people in need of assistance. It also means that donors have to re-double their efforts to respond to disasters in a more efficient and effective manner. International humanitarian organizations (IHOs) often deal with a mix of disaster response and development programmes simultaneously. This operational mix entails disaster cycle management challenges such as project and programme planning of multi-objective global logistics, balancing earmarked donations for disaster response with budget needs for development programmes, and determining the push-pull boundaries in the supply chain, particularly with the increase in cash transfer programmes. The main purpose of this special issue is to report on research in humanitarian operations management. This special issue attempts to explore and examine the above topical issues at strategic, operational and technical levels.     

A Critical Reflection on the Experimental Method for Planning Research: Testing the Added Value of PSS in a Controlled Environment

For planning research to successfully generate usable mechanisms for planning practitioners more hypothesis-testing research designs are needed. Currently, the academic field seems more geared toward generating hypotheses, either by observing practice or from theoretical studies. This approach is especially common in research that generates knowledge of planning. In this paper, I map several relevant research designs that allow for such hypothesis testing and discuss their usability in planning research. Then, I particularly focus on the experimental method as a promising design for generating contextualized mechanisms for planning practice. I describe and analyze a study that aimed to develop mechanisms about the added value of knowledge technologies for the quality of planning. Two consecutive experiments are described in detail, after which the usability of the experimental method for planning research is discussed. Reflecting on these experiments indicate that the main strength of this research design is that it allows to create ideal circumstances for falsification (which is virtually impossible in planning practices. The main weakness is the ecological validity of findings, especially when the research is executed with students.     

Urban and regional planning—A systems view

The most interesting developments in the search for new planning procedures are in the areas of ecology, as an eco system with the matrix structure of environmental impact analysis, and Ekistics, the science of human settlement. The grid system developed in this approach combined with the environmental impact analysis model, provides a complete systems approach. The problem is to relate this to systems dynamics and to integrate this approach with the concept of society as a dynamic social system. The literature review highlights key works which lead to or use the systems approach. By attempting to identify a systems approach many planning techniques and concepts are not included. However, if one adopts this approach it is possible to test the use of any technique within a recognized framework and not on the piecemeal basis which is used at present.     

Stochastic Optimization for Natural Disaster Asset Prepositioning

A key strategic issue in pre‐disaster planning for humanitarian logistics is the pre‐establishment of adequate capacity and resources that enable efficient relief operations. This paper develops a two‐stage stochastic optimization model to guide the allocation of budget to acquire and position relief assets, decisions that typically need to be made well in advance before a disaster strikes. The optimization focuses on minimizing the expected number of casualties, so our model includes first‐stage decisions to represent the expansion of resources such as warehouses, medical facilities with personnel, ramp spaces, and shelters. Second‐stage decisions concern the logistics of the problem, where allocated resources and contracted transportation assets are deployed to rescue critical population (in need of emergency evacuation), deliver required commodities to stay‐back population, and transport the transfer population displaced by the disaster. Because of the uncertainty of the event's location and severity, these and other parameters are represented as scenarios. Computational results on notional test cases provide guidance on budget allocation and prove the potential benefit of using stochastic optimization.     

Institutional Adjustments and Strategic Planning Action: The Case of Victorian Wildfire Planning

This paper provides a critical analysis of the way that practice-based strategic planning in terms of disaster risk reduction occurs, highlighting the drivers and facilitators of change. It documents these in the context of other governmental systems. Examination the changes to wildfire planning policy in Victoria, Australia, following the 2009 Bushfire Season, provides an explanation of the realpolitik of policy formation, management and change, as well as inter-governmental interactions. The findings document and discuss the conditions and reasons for strategic change occurring in the case study.     

Decision Making for Group Risk Reduction: Dealing with Epistemic Uncertainty

Group risk is usually represented by FN curves showing the frequency of different accident sizes for a given activity. Many governments regulate group risk through FN criterion lines, which define the tolerable location of an FN curve. However, to compare different risk reduction alternatives, one must be able to rank FN curves. The two main problems in doing this are that the FN curve contains multiple frequencies, and that there are usually large epistemic uncertainties about the curve. Since the mid 1970s, a number of authors have used the concept of “disutility” to summarize FN curves in which a family of disutility functions was defined with a single parameter controlling the degree of “risk aversion.” Here, we show it to be risk neutral, disaster averse, and insensitive to epistemic uncertainty on accident frequencies. A new approach is outlined that has a number of attractive properties. The formulation allows us to distinguish between risk aversion and disaster aversion, two concepts that have been confused in the literature until now. A two‐parameter family of disutilities generalizing the previous approach is defined, where one parameter controls risk aversion and the other disaster aversion. The family is sensitive to epistemic uncertainties. Such disutilities may, for example, be used to compare the impact of system design changes on group risks, or might form the basis for valuing reductions in group risk in a cost‐benefit analysis.