基于消费者主权的生鲜电商消费体验设置

针对消费者对国内生鲜农产品质量安全的"信任危机",本文构建了植入消费体验的生鲜电商C2B2B2C模型,让碎片化的消费者通过互联网就近聚合为社群化的食物社区,生产者通过合作社聚合为规模化生产基地,食物社区与生产基地借助电商平台进行产销对接、以销定产和消费体验。研究表明,在传统B2C模式下消费者只能依据供应商提供的信息进行Stackelberg博弈和有限消费体验,购买需求较少。当植入充分的消费体验后,生产者与消费者融合为prosumer,购买需求随消费者对生产者的信任度增加而增加。实证揭示,农耕生产、质量追溯、物流配送、网购操作、产品呈现和售后服务都会显著影响消费体验,电商平台要实现商业可持续性发展必须为消费者设置这些全面而丰富的体验场景。     

Exposure Assessment for Pesticide Intake from Multiple Food Products: A Bayesian Latent‐Variable Approach

Pesticide risk assessment for food products involves combining information from consumption and concentration data sets to estimate a distribution for the pesticide intake in a human population. Using this distribution one can obtain probabilities of individuals exceeding specified levels of pesticide intake. In this article, we present a probabilistic, Bayesian approach to modeling the daily consumptions of the pesticide Iprodione though multiple food products. Modeling data on food consumption and pesticide concentration poses a variety of problems, such as the large proportions of consumptions and concentrations that are recorded as zero, and correlation between the consumptions of different foods. We consider daily food consumption data from the Netherlands National Food Consumption Survey and concentration data collected by the Netherlands Ministry of Agriculture. We develop a multivariate latent‐Gaussian model for the consumption data that allows for correlated intakes between products. For the concentration data, we propose a univariate latent‐t model. We then combine predicted consumptions and concentrations from these models to obtain a distribution for individual daily Iprodione exposure. The latent‐variable models allow for both skewness and large numbers of zeros in the consumption and concentration data. The use of a probabilistic approach is intended to yield more robust estimates of high percentiles of the exposure distribution than an empirical approach. Bayesian inference is used to facilitate the treatment of data with a complex structure.     

Attribution of Human VTEC O157 Infection from Meat Products: A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach

To address the risk posed to human health by the consumption of VTEC O157 within contaminated pork, lamb, and beef products within Great Britain, a quantitative risk assessment model has been developed. This model aims to simulate the prevalence and amount of VTEC O157 in different meat products at consumption within a single model framework by adapting previously developed models. The model is stochastic in nature, enabling both variability (natural variation between animals, carcasses, products) and uncertainty (lack of knowledge) about the input parameters to be modeled. Based on the model assumptions and data, it is concluded that the prevalence of VTEC O157 in meat products (joints and mince) at consumption is low (i.e., <0.04%). Beef products, particularly beef burgers, present the highest estimated risk with an estimated eight out of 100,000 servings on average resulting in human infection with VTEC O157.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment Relating to Adventitious Presence of Allergens in Food: A Probabilistic Model Applied to Peanut in Chocolate

Peanut allergy is a public health concern, owing to the high prevalence in France and the severity of the reactions. Despite peanut-containing product avoidance diets, a risk may exist due to the adventitious presence of peanut allergens in a wide range of food products. Peanut is not mentioned in their ingredients list, but precautionary labeling is often present. A method of quantifying the risk of allergic reactions following the consumption of such products is developed, taking the example of peanut in chocolate tablets. The occurrence of adventitious peanut proteins in chocolate and the dose-response relationship are estimated with a Bayesian approach using available published data. The consumption pattern is described by the French individual consumption survey INCA2. Risk simulations are performed using second-order Monte Carlo simulations, which separately propagates variability and uncertainty of the model input variables. Peanut allergens occur in approximately 36% of the chocolates, leading to a mean exposure level of 0.2 mg of peanut proteins per eating occasion. The estimated risk of reaction averages 0.57% per eating occasion for peanut-allergic adults. The 95% values of the risk stand between 0 and 3.61%, which illustrates the risk variability. The uncertainty, represented by the 95% credible intervals, is concentrated around these risk estimates. Children have similar results. The conclusion is that adventitious peanut allergens induce a risk of reaction for a part of the French peanut-allergic population. The method developed can be generalized to assess the risk due to the consumption of every foodstuff potentially contaminated by allergens.     

Consumer Responses to Integrated Risk‐Benefit Information Associated with the Consumption of Food

The risk analysis of the health impact of foods is increasingly focused on integrated risk‐benefit assessment, which will also need to be communicated to consumers. It therefore becomes important to understand how consumers respond to integrated risk‐benefit information. Quality‐adjusted‐life‐years (QALYs) is one measure that can be used to assess the balance between risks and benefits associated with a particular food. The effectiveness of QALYs for communicating both positive and negative health effects associated with food consumption to consumers was examined, using a 3 × 2 experiment varying information about health changes in terms of QALYs associated with the consumption of fish (n = 325). The effect of this information on consumer perceptions of the usefulness of QALYs for describing health effects, on risk and benefit perceptions, attitudes, and intentions to consume fish was examined. Results demonstrated that consumers perceived QALYs as useful for communicating health effects associated with food consumption. QALYs communicated as a net effect were preferred for food products associated with negative net effects on health, while separate communication of both risks and benefits may be preferred for food products associated with positive or zero net health effects. Information about health changes in terms of QALYs facilitated informed decision making by consumers, as indicated by the impact on risk and benefit perceptions as intended by the information. The impact of this information on actual food consumption choices merits further investigation.     

Organization of new product development in Thailand' food processing industry

Asian food markets are large and growing very rapidly. Per capita food consumption is increasing as income rises, and food consumption habits are changing. Asian food retailing is also changing rapidly, as distribution and transportation modernizes. Consumers are becoming more sophisticated, with increasing awareness of hygiene and safety, and expectations of better nutrition and more convenience. This rapid development of food markets creates opportunities in food processing as great as in high tech industries (Selwin, 1992). It also puts pressure on food manufacturers to continuously upgrade their products and to offer new products. Management of research and development (R&D) is becoming critical to competitiveness.     

Marketing Strategies and Market Prospects for Environmentally-Friendly Consumer Products1

Recent evidence suggests that the extent of consumer adoption of ‘green’ products is much less than would be indicated by the enthusiastic opinion poll evidence concerning public attitudes towards environmentally-friendly consumption. This paper reports on an empirical analysis of firms' marketing strategies and their influence on consumer demand for green products. In twenty 2–3 hour interviews with senior managers, four representative groups of markets were analysed household detergents, paper (recycled), petrol (unleaded) and automobile technology (focusing on catalytic converters). According to managers, firms' marketing strategies influenced consumer demand by making green technologies available in the fwst instance. However, barriers to supplying green products that show panty with, or better performance than, conventional technologies constrain pricing and communication efforts Managers stressed that, in the absence of clarity of green products' environmental benefits, product performance and other attributes, not green benefits, remain the main determinants of product preference and choice. Promotions focused much more on consumers than distribution channels, yet channel acceptance and support of green innovations are paramount in facilitating sales. Firms see the costs of generating and promoting desirable green technologies as barriers to diffusion in the immediate future. Legislation and/or economic incentives may help, but manufacturers are not optimistic that future green consumption rates will accelerate. The results also highlight several propositions concerning the discrepancy between consumer environmental concerns and purchasing actions which warrant further testing: there is mis-specification of green products in relation to consumers'needs; there are barriers to perceptions of green products' environmental impact and consumers' free ride due to individual self-interest.     

An overview of the Salmonella enteritidis risk assessment for shell eggs and egg products.

This article summarizes a quantitative microbial risk assessment designed to characterize the public health impact of consumption of shell eggs and egg products contaminated with Salmonella Enteritidis (SE). This risk assessment's objectives were to: (1) establish the baseline risk of foodborne illness from SE, (2) identify and evaluate potential risk mitigation strategies, and (3) identify data gaps related to future research efforts. The risk assessment model has five modules. The Egg Production module estimates the number of eggs produced that are SE-contaminated. Shell Egg Processing, Egg Products Processing, and Preparation & Consumption modules estimate the increase or decrease in the numbers of SE organisms in eggs or egg products as they pass through storage, transportation, processing, and preparation. A Public Health Outcomes module then calculates the incidence of illnesses and four clinical outcomes, as well as the cases of reactive arthritis associated with SE infection following consumption. The baseline model estimates an average production of 2.3 million SE-contaminated shell eggs/year of the estimated 69 billion produced annually and predicts an average of 661,633, human illnesses per year from consumption of these eggs. The model estimates approximately 94% of these cases recover without medical care, 5% visit a physician, an additional 0.5% are hospitalized, and 0.05% result in death. The contribution of SE from commercially pasteurized egg products was estimated to be negligible. Five mitigation scenarios were selected for comparison of their individual and combined effects on the number of human illnesses. Results suggest that mitigation in only one segment of the farm-to-table continuum will be less effective than several applied in different segments. Key data gaps and areas for future research include the epidemiology of SE on farms, the bacteriology of SE in eggs, human behavior in food handling and preparation, and human responses to SE exposure.     

政府市场规制、产品消费选择和企业绿色技术创新

本文通过构建由地方政府、企业和消费者组成的绿色技术创新系统演化博弈模型,分析了不同现实情形下系统的均衡策略演化过程,并借助系统动力学实验方法进一步研究了相关因素对系统均衡的影响。研究发现:(1)在绿色技术创新演化博弈系统所有可能的均衡策略中,只存在三个稳定的均衡策略,即地方政府、企业和消费者的策略分别为(市场规制,不绿色技术创新,购买传统产品)、(市场规制,绿色技术创新,购买传统产品)、(市场规制,绿色技术创新,购买绿色产品)。(2)企业绿色技术创新品牌收益和消费者绿色产品消费的经济收益是影响博弈演化系统最终向不同稳定均衡策略演进的主要因素。(3)在第一种均衡状态下,产品的基础价值、绿色偏好收益、绿色消费意识和产品价格等是影响消费者购买绿色产品的主要因素;在第二种均衡状态下,政策收益、规制成本及产品市场需求量是影响政府采取市场规制策略的主要因素;在第三种均衡状态下,绿色技术创新补贴系数、市场规制强度和企业绿色技术创新品牌收益是影响企业采取绿色技术创新策略的主要因素,且各影响因素对博弈主体策略选择的方向和边际的影响均存在较大差异。上述结论将为进一步完善绿色发展理论提供参考,也为构建市场导向的绿色技术创新体系提供借鉴。     

Industrialization,Productivity and the Shift to Services and Information

All major world economies are exhibiting a shift from products to services in terms of relative share of GNP and employment. A well accepted explanation for this shift to services has been the lower productivity growth in services relative to manufacturing. A second trend visible in the United States and other advanced economies is that from material‐intensive to information‐intensive sectors with the latter growing relative to the former. There does not seem to be a generally accepted explanation for this shift; in fact, here it would appear that productivity in information‐intensive sectors is increasing. We construct a model of an economy with endogenous production and consumption decisions by utility maximizing individuals. We show that differential productivity changes can result in either relative growth or decline of a sector. A second factor affecting the direction of change is the degree to which consumption of sector outputs approaches satiation. When marginal utility of additional consumption drops sufficiently low, productivity increases can lead to declines in the relative size and share of, and employment in the sector. Concurrently, increases in productivity increase average wealth as expected, but income inequality can either increase or decrease.     

在线到移动环境下消费接受行为的演化研究:基于计算实验方法

构建实证数据驱动下的多智能体计算实验平台,用于研究从在线到移动环境下消费转移行为的动态演化机理。实验结果表明,所收集的实验数据与经典扩散方程拟合程度高,说明计算模型能反映真实系统的演化过程。广告在产品/服务的市场投放初期效果明显,随着广告强度的增加,消费接受效果并非明显。当市场中出现高消费休眠时,即便采用高唤醒策略,其移动服务消费接受水平也低。当休眠率远大于唤醒率时,市场成熟期后,移动产品/服务接受量下降,而在线产品/服务接受量回升。当唤醒率远大于休眠率时,移动产品/服务接受量水平可达到最大,并维持稳定。该计算模型和实验结果能为管理者提供电子商务行为决策方面的支持。     

Risk Assessment of Human Toxoplasmosis Associated with the Consumption of Pork Meat in Italy

Toxoplasmosis is a cosmopolitan disease and has a broad range of hosts, including humans and several wild and domestic animals. The human infection is mostly acquired through the consumption of contaminated food and pork meat has been recognized as one of the major sources of transmission. There are, however, certain fundamental differences between countries; therefore, the present study specifically aims to evaluate the exposure of the Italian population to Toxoplasma gondii through the ingestion of several types of pork meat products habitually consumed in Italy and to estimate the annual number of human infections within two subgroups of the population. A quantitative risk assessment model was built for this reason and was enriched with new elements in comparison to other similar risk assessments in order to enhance its accuracy. Sensitivity analysis and two alternative scenarios were implemented to identify the factors that have the highest impact on risk and to simulate different plausible conditions, respectively. The estimated overall average number of new infections per year among adults is 12,513 and 92 for pregnant women. The baseline model showed that almost all these infections are associated with the consumption of fresh meat cuts and preparations (mean risk of infection varied between 4.5 × 10⁻⁵ and 5.5 × 10⁻⁵) and only a small percentage is due to fermented sausages/salami. On the contrary, salt‐cured meat products seem to pose minor risk but further investigations are needed to clarify still unclear aspects. Among all the considered variables, cooking temperature and bradyzoites’ concentration in muscle impacted most the risk.     

不同渠道权力结构下的S-M两级闭环供应链绩效分析

与传统正向供应链相比,闭环供应链关注对消费阶段后的废旧产品进行回收再制造,从而减少环境污染、降低资源消耗,对推动制造业的可持续发展具有非常重要与深远的意义。为了探讨产品再制造战略对闭环供应链中成员企业的影响,本文采用博弈论对一个供应商和一个制造商构成的S-M两级闭环供应链进行研究,着重分析供应商强势、制造商强势以及供应商和制造商双方势力均衡时的定价策略和供应链系统绩效。研究结果表明:当实施产品再制造战略时,产品的销售价格降低、产品的市场销量增加,零部件的批发价格则上涨。从成员企业个体来看,再制造战略总是有助于制造商获得更多额外收益,而对供应商的影响效应则与供应商在渠道中的权力地位有关,处于强势地位的供应商可以通过大幅提高零部件批发价格的方式来保证自己从再制造中获益,而处于弱势地位的供应商则有可能遭受利益损失。从系统整体绩效来看,再制造战略具有提升供应链系统整体赢利水平的积极作用,但是供应商和制造商之间的权力结构会影响再制造的经济价值。具体而言,供应商和制造商势力均衡时的供应链绩效最优,其次是制造商主导的供应链,最差的是供应商主导的供应链。     

线上零售商开设体验店：基于供应链的视角

随着消费者消费观念的转变以及《消费者权益保护法》的普及，越来越多的电商企业开设体验店来改善消费者购物体验。本文针对由制造商(或供应商)和开设了体验店的线上零售商(或电商平台)组成的“线下体验，线上购买”O2O系统，考虑可能存在的消费者退货行为以及O2O系统成员企业之间的不对称信息，构建消费者预期效用函数，建立供应链两阶段动态博弈模型。通过模型求解，分析线上零售商开设体验店的可行条件及其对各个企业定价策略和消费者行为的影响，从制造商、O2O系统以及消费者剩余角度考察体验店的价值。研究发现：从线上零售商的角度，开设体验店存在可行条件，但在此可行条件内，体验店的开设总是能够有效提升制造商和供应链系统的期望利润；线上零售商开设体验店能够扩大市场占有率，并降低产品退货率和提升消费者剩余。最后，对原始模型进行了不同维度的扩展，分析产品体验影响消费者满意度和体验店设库存销售产品等情形下的体验店价值。     

10大HR管理高招 尊重个体培养、注重文化建设

和生态农业相关的新闻,最近频频成为媒体头条。前不久,浙江省建德市生态有机农产品推介会在上海举行,短短几天时间,参会企业签下了价值9000万元的农产品购销意向协议,上海市民将     

Improving Profits by Bundling Vertically Differentiated Products

We consider a firm managing a category of vertically differentiated goods, that is, products which differ with respect to an attribute for which all consumers prefer more to less. The goods can be sold individually, in which case they are referred to as components, or in bundles. The firm chooses the assortment of components and bundles and their selling prices to maximize profit. We show that each bundling strategy (pure components, pure bundling or mixed bundling) can be optimal and obtain closed‐form expressions for the optimal selling prices. We provide insights on the structure of the optimal assortment and prices. In particular, we show that, when consumers benefit from consuming the components jointly, the products in the optimal assortment form nested sets. When consumers do not benefit from the joint consumption of components, the bundles should be offered at a positive discount. We find that bundling vertically differentiated products can significantly improve profits, even if consumers do not benefit from consuming the components jointly. The value of bundling comes from increased sales: a firm, which understands that its customers may buy multiple types of components, offers bundles of components, incentivizing customers to buy more.     

信息不对称条件下双寡头市场中质量差异化产品虚假信息问题研究

基于博弈论和契约理论,研究了信息不对称条件下双寡头市场质量差异化产品定价过程中虚假信息的问题。消费者与企业关于产品质量信息存在严重不对称,为企业使用虚假质量信息提高企业利润提供了较大的空间。为分析企业使用虚假信息的问题,本文基于Bertrand博弈模型构建了双寡头市场质量差异化产品定价模型并求解企业利润。求解结果表明双寡头市场的纳什博弈均衡解为两企业均使用虚假信息,在此基础上进一步从契约的角度对企业使用虚假信息的问题进行了合理规避。最后运用算例分析验证了模型的正确性。     

消费者异质性下供应链互补产品销售策略选择及其定价研究

基于消费者对互补品消费习性存在的异质性,对互补品消费市场进行细分,并在上游两个制造商分别提供具有互补特性的产品,下游一个销售商同时销售这两种产品的供应链环境下研究定价均衡。根据不同目标市场选择,识别出全市场覆盖以及聚焦细分市场两种销售策略,分别对两种营销策略下的供应链产品定价进行讨论,并通过模型求解分别得到两种策略下的均衡,讨论了两个均衡解存在的条件,讨论了均衡定价随产品互补程度以及互补品相对效用比的变化情况,以及销售商在不同情形下选择的定价策略。结果表明,当互补品相对效用差异不大,且互补程度不大的时候,渠道内形成第一个定价均衡;当产品间相对效用差异大,且互补程度足够大的时候,渠道内形成第二个定价均衡。     

基于有限状态自动机的新产品市场成长研究

消费者对新产品的持续性动态采用过程可以看作有限状态自动机的状态转移(待购状态、在购状态、休眠状态).在综合大众传播、口碑效应、首次购买、重复购买、顾客流失、以及季节性扰动等因素的情况下,运用有限状态自动机构建出符合动态采用模式的市场成长模型.此模型更具综合性和精确性,不但可以涵盖经典的Bass模型和后续发展的服务增长模型与尝试—重购模型,还可以推断出以往难以估计的重购系数和流失系数.实证检验快消品、耐用品和服务等品类数据,结论表明新模型比现有三种模型具有更好拟合性,对未来销售的预测力也更高.该模型有利于深入了解新产品在社会系统中一般性的扩散和成长规律.     

城乡二元结构对产品扩散的影响研究:以彩电采用为例

创新的扩散是产品市场形成的主要机制。对于中国市场而言,研究地区差异对创新扩散的影响,有助于理解中国区域市场的特点和差异。本文以彩电产品为例,研究了消费品在我国不同区域的扩散及其影响因素。研究表明,区域经济发展水平、人口受教育程度以及人口流动性对新产品扩散有显著的影响。特别地,本文通过实证研究,首次发现:发展中国家普遍存在的城乡二元结构也对新产品的扩散有显著的影响,二元经济结构特征越明显,创新越不容易扩散。