Risk analysis and risk management in an uncertain world.

The tragic attacks of September 11 and the bioterrorist threats with respect to anthrax that followed have raised a set of issues regarding how we deal with events where there is considerable ambiguity and uncertainty about the likelihood of their occurrence and their potential consequences. This paper discusses how one can link the tools of risk assessment and our knowledge of risk perception to develop risk management options for dealing with extreme events. In particular, it suggests ways that the members of the Society for Risk Analysis can apply their expertise and talent to the risks associated with terrorism and discusses the changing roles of the public and private sectors in dealing with extreme events.     

LP/HC and LULUs: The Political Uses of Risk Analysis in Land-Use Planning1

This paper examines how LP/HC (low-probability/high-consequence) risk analysis is used in planning for locally unwanted land uses, or LULUs. LULUs are development projects that are predictably objectionable to many of their neighbors. Examples are nuclear power plants, hazardous waste facilities, refineries, and airports. The paper begins by elaborating the idea of LULUs, focussing on those whose planning typically requires or invokes some form of LP/HC risk analysis. It then discusses how land planning and planners actually use the LP/HC approach to deal with LULUs. It argues that in practice land-use planners and their associates employ a concept of risk different from that of economists, scientists, and engineers and more like that of political decision-makers and the public at large. It concludes with a political interpretation that offers some suggestions for productively reducing this divergence in the treatment of LULUs that pose LP/HC risks.     

Conjoint effects of interacting strategy-making processes and lines of defense practices in strategic Risk Management: An empirical study

The ability to contain adverse effects of major risks under turbulent conditions and exploit the opportunities they present are fundamental concerns in strategic management and various institutions promote enterprise risk management (ERM) to deal with these challenges. Yet, our knowledge about how ERM affects performance and interacts with corporate strategy-making processes is limited. The ERM frameworks impose first and second lines of defense practices to integrate business operations and corporate risk oversight. Emergent strategies generate responsive initiatives and strategic planning coordinates updated actions. Hence, this study analyzes the conjoint effects of these ERM practices and strategy-making processes based on a large corporate sample and finds that ERM practices depend on strategy-making to attain effective risk outcomes. The application of ERM frameworks can, therefore, not be assessed in isolation, but must consider corporate strategy-making. This has implications for the way we conduct research on strategic risk management, how executives approach risk oversight and policy-makers impose formal risk governance requirements.     

Studying Heuristic-Systematic Processing of Risk Communication

Using a model of risk information seeking and processing developed by Griffin, Dunwoody, and Neuwirth (1999), this study looks at predictors of the processing strategies that people apply to health risk information. Specifically, this article focuses on one relationship within the model--the relationship between perceived amount of information needed to deal with a risk and heuristic-systematic processing. Perceived amount of information needed refers to the gap between one's understanding of a risk and the level of understanding that one needs in order to make a decision about that risk. Building on the work of Chaiken (cf. 1980), the Griffin et al. model predicts--and finds--that the larger the gap, the more likely one will process information systematically. The study employs a novel measure of information processing in a survey setting by sending actual information to participants and then asking them how they attended to it; the researchers evaluate this strategy. Finally, the researchers discuss how these findings might help agencies and practitioners create more effective risk messages.     

复杂快变环境下的整体性应变工具:和谐主题

和谐主题是和谐管理理论中用于应对现代组织管理复杂性、整体性及快速应变需求的核心概念之一。围绕复杂快变环境下组织如何进行整体性快速应变这一管理难题,对现有和谐主题相关研究进行了拓展。具体而言,首先对和谐主题的本质属性进行了深入分析,得出和谐主题在本质上体现为组织领导者对不确定情境的"意义"主张的研究结论。在此基础上,通过与其他组织要素的比较,系统阐释了和谐主题的功能特征,提出和谐主题是复杂快变环境下组织进行整体性快速应变的一种有效工具。最后,以知识理论为基础对和谐主题的辨识与表征过程进行了考察,从而从知识学视角揭示了这2个过程的内在机理。一方面从理论上丰富了战略管理领域的相关研究,另一方面也为新经济环境下的组织管理实践提供了参考与借鉴。     

Public-Private Partnership Contractual Design: A Computational Model of the Moral Hazard with Lotteries

Public-Private Partnership (PPP) is a new model of public management which consists of the contractual relationship between public and private entities. In particular, PPPs enable risk share between public and private sectors making the asymmetric information problem in a contractual arrangement more evident. The aim of this paper was to study a moral hazard problem applied to PPP contracts. To achieve this objective, a PPP computational contractual model including the moral hazard with lotteries was developed to assess how contractual changes could affect the optimum behavior of arrangement members. Simulations indicate that projects with higher economic value should attract more qualified firms, which may be why the companies expend more effort. To deal with possible contractual contingencies and try to minimize the moral hazard problem, the government could draw up more flexible contracts in order to include possible necessary changes and punish unwanted or improper consortium behavior.     

小样本数据信用风险评估研究

针对我国商业银行信用风险评估有效历史数据样本容量小的特点 ,本文提出了一种小样本情况下的信用风险评估建模技术 ,该方法通过样本的重复使用 ,提高了有限样本的使用效率 ,减小了预测的偏差 .实证结果表明 ,与传统的判别分析方法相比 ,该方法建立的信用评估模型精度更高     

Is it All About Money? – Affective Commitment and the Difference Between Family and Non‐family Sellers in Buyouts

In this paper we investigate private equity firm perceptions of sellers’ affective deal commitment in buyout transactions. Using a sample of 174 buyouts, we test trust, goal congruence and private equity reputation as potential antecedents of perceived deal commitment. We also examine whether and how different types of sellers, family versus non‐family firms, moderate sources of perceived affective deal commitment. In sum, we find evidence that non‐financial factors play a role in buyouts, particularly for family firm sellers.     

基于RBF神经网络的财产保险公司全面风险预警系统研究

在尝试提出我国财产保险公司全面风险预警指标体系的基础上,利用RBF神经网络构建了财产保险公司全面风险预警模型。然后,对预警信号提出了相应的风险处理方案。最后,利用该RBF神经网络进行全面风险预警,结果表明该网络计算误差小、收敛迅速,网络具有良好的泛化能力。     

TOWARD A “NEW ARCHITECTURE” FOR POM

The field of POM is steadily expanding its scope. This allows us to pursue interesting new fields of inquiry and makes us ever more relevant to the needs of practitioners. But it also increases the risk that over time our efforts will become fragmented and unfocused, causing us to slowly lose our sense of community and break up into separate camps. In this paper I ask, “What kind of new organizing framework, or ‘architecture,’ will allow us to maintain our sense of community as our interests diverge?” I describe the experience of one academic organization that faced a similar problem several years ago and how the situation was resolved. This experience leads us to propose a possible solution to Pom's emerging problem: engage with real operations managers and focus our efforts on helping them deal with the actual problems they are facing in today's complex and fast‐changing world.     

Coaching und organisationale Ver?nderungsprozesse �C eine organisationstheoretische Betrachtung

For many organizations, the ability to change and to meet future needs has become a central challenge. This paper is concerned with the question of how the human resource development instrument coaching can be implemented in supporting change. Coaching settings usually deal with the context of role identity within a system. This paper follows up, outlines and links coaching with organizational theory respectively organizational learning. In conclusion, some points for the practice of coaching are outlined.     

Risk‐Taking and the Media

In recent years, media formats with risk‐glorifying content, such as video games that simulate illegal street racing (“bang and crash” games), films about extreme sports, and risky stunts have emerged as top sellers of the media industry. A variety of recent studies conducted by several researchers revealed that exposure to risk‐glorifying media content (e.g., video games that simulate reckless driving, smoking and drinking in movies, or depictions that glorify extreme sports) increases the likelihood that recipients will show increased levels of risk‐taking inclinations and behaviors. The present article (1) reviews the latest research on the detrimental impact of risk‐glorifying media on risk‐taking inclinations (cognitions, emotions, behaviors), (2) puts these findings in the theoretical context of recent sociocognitive models on media effects, and (3) makes suggestions to science and policymakers on how to deal with these effects in the future.     

Reducing exposure to exchange rate risk: A case study

During the last decade, with the advent of large fluctuations in the values of currencies, business managers came to realize that effective international financial management could be a major contributor to a firm's profitability. This same period showed aggressive marketing by U.S. firms in foreign markets. The resulting expansions have led to requirements for increased knowledge concerning foreign consumer behavior, pricing procedures and trade regulations. In addition, transactions with foreign customers have resulted in a more complex cash management environment. The firms may desire all payments received to be denominated in U.S. dollars, but such a policy could result in reduced exports if potential foreign importers wished to make payment in their own currency. Consequently, the U.S. firms should accomodate importers' desires and then implement a strategy to deal with the exchange rate risk. This paper develops such a strategy and illustrates how the strategy can be applied to a realistic case.     

Hierarchie und Entlohnung

In this paper, we suggest a wage scheme that accounts for the hierarchical structure of an enterprise. We employ concepts of cooperative game theory and modify the van den Brink (2008) approach. Besides results on how the hierarchy affects wage differentials between levels of the hierarchy, we deal with the allocation of employees to the different levels.     

基于债权终止的可违约债券定价

已有实证结果表明流动性风险及其与违约风险的相关性是影响可违约债券收益率的重要因素,然而目前的研究还不能建立一种计算简便且同时包含流动性风险以及风险相关尤其是尾部相关性的定价模型。本文将流动性风险与违约风险都描述为债权终止事件驱动型的风险,从而可以利用与违约时间类似的出售时间来刻画流动性风险过程。基于债权终止事件的发生时间,本文拓展了简约模型以考虑流动性风险及风险相关性。与以往的研究相比,基于债权终止时间的模型具备诸多优势:模型简便适合大规模计算、允许时变流动性风险、包含尾部相关等较为丰富的风险相关性结构。数值算例表明,本文的模型能更好地刻画流动性风险溢价以及风险的尾部相关性对债券收益率曲线上下尾端的影响。     

Household‐Level Coastal Adaptation and Its Drivers: A Systematic Case Study Review

Evidence‐based information on household‐level adaptation is an important element of integrated management of vulnerable coastal regions. A growing number of empirical studies deal with household‐level adaptation at the coast in different regions. This article provides a systematic review of these studies. We analyze studies according to how households in different parts of the world are currently adapting, or how they are intending to adapt, and identify explanatory factors for adaptation behavior and intention. We find that households implement a broad range of adaptation measures and that adaptation behavior is explained by individual factors such as socioeconomic and cognitive variables, experience, and perceived responsibilities. Nonpersonal characteristics have also been used to explain adaptation behavior and intention but have not been extensively investigated. Few studies employ qualitative research methods and use inductive approaches as well as models stemming from behavioral economics. Our findings suggest that coastal risk management policies should communicate the efficacy of household‐level adaptation, in addition to information about flood risk, in order to encourage coastal households in their adaptation activities. In this context, we discuss the role of resources and responsibility of households for their adaptation behavior. We describe the lessons learnt and formulate a research agenda on household‐level adaptation to coastal flood risk. In practice, coastal risk management policies should further promote individually driven adaptation by integrating it in adaptation strategies and processes.     

多层级领导对员工信任、工作绩效及创新行为的影响模式研究

信任已成为企业和学术界解决组织中管理要素--人--不确定性问题的重要手段.本文基于不同层级领导对员工的不同影响特点,探讨了多层级领导建立员工信任的不同途径,建立了多层级领导对员工信任及创新等绩效的影响机理模型,并通过中国的实际数据及结构方程模型对此进行了初步验证.研究结果为解释组织内复杂的领导与信任现象及提升组织内的信任水平、创新能力等提供了有益参考.     

信用评估中的鲁棒赋权自适应Lp最小二乘支持向量机方法

消费者信用评估是金融风险管理和信用产业竞争的一个重要方面.信用评估数据中常带有噪声点,并且其类别是不均衡的.最小二乘支持向量机是一个被广泛应用的分类模型,其模型简单,求解速度快,但鲁棒性差.本文提出了一个鲁棒赋权自适应L_p最小二乘支持向量机模型,能够适应信用评估样本数据库类别不均衡的特点,可以有效处理信用评估数据中带有噪声点的问题.在仿真数据和三个信用数据库上的实证分析表明,本文所提出的模型具有较好的鲁棒性和分类能力.     

组织研究方法的回顾与评述

如何处理内外部环境因素、组织结构和组织成员之间的关系这一经典的组织管理问题,在当前复杂快变的环境下有很多新的问题需要重新思考。本研究回顾了组织研究基本范式的发展演变,指出在快变环境中,运用结构形态(Configuration approach)的思想指导组织研究,可以很好地解决诸如整体性割裂、因果链模糊等问题。     

The emerging role of the physician in administration

Physicians often find it difficult to determine the type of training needed to prepare themselves for administrative roles in health services organizations. Without extensive knowledge about organizations and how they function and how administrators contribute to organizational performance, physicians tend to view management roles as either overwhelmingly complex, or, conversely, simply a matter of using good judgment. In an attempt to help clarify this issue, we have outlined six management problems that an entry-level physician executive should be able to deal with successfully without asking for help. If physicians find that they are unable to deal with these issues, they should seek additional training before considering a management role.