Understanding the Sustainability of Insurgency Conflict in Thailand

Abstract

This article seeks to model the insurgency conflict in the three southern border provinces of the Kingdom of Thailand: Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat. In so doing, it will explore the sustainability of the conflict by representing it in terms of a conflict life cycle that is responsive to complexity and change. The cycle arises from the cybernetic viable systems theory of ‘living systems’, and is able to foster a better understanding of what is happening empirically on the social level in these provinces, in respect to a situation characterized as one of incessant conflicts. This conflict model that arises suggests that there is an interconnection between the agents involved, and their individual and interactive dynamics. The conflict involves five types of politically related behaviours that occur between two interactive agents: the state (engaged in searching for and making arrests of insurgents) and the insurgents (engaged in violent acts of shooting, bombing, and arson). These agents are studied to the end of being able to determine the precise interactive nature of the political conflict in which they are engaged. In carrying out this investigation both quantitative and qualitative approaches were used. The research was carried out in three stages. In the first stage, time series techniques were used to determine inferentially whether the conflict is both rational and involves interactive behaviours. Stage two adopts the Weibull distribution technique to assess the political conflict. In the third stage, a statistical analysis is conducted of the conflict situation in political terms. Finally, it is explained how the model and the methods used in this article may be used to deal with intractable conflict in other social environments, incidentally tracking the likelihood of conflicts being sustainable. Other agencies could utilize this approach in examining other political conflicts so as to be better able to prepare suitable approaches for coping with intractable conflicts to the end of fostering sustainable peace processes.     

Logic of order: state hierarchy,law, sovereignty,and war

While natural sciences such as physics hold causality for granted as one of the most fundamental principles to make adequate theories of the real world, social sciences, first of all, sociology have not this advantage. Of course, humans are subjected to causality insofar as they are physical entities too, but moreover they are endowed with free will that essentially complicates their behavior and social activity. Unlike causality, logistics should take the same place in social sciences. Conscious beings behave rationally and act logistically as well as they possess some physical experience (including causality) and socially structured knowledge. Thus, free will is restricted not only by causality and other physical laws but also logistics. This paper argues for a logistical approach to the society and models the state as a power hierarchy (mathematical ideal). The state can exist, function, and be stable over time only as a hierarchy. Then sovereignty emerges as a logistical phenomenon whose ‘dynamical magnitude’ is naturally decomposed by the societal strata of the society and the mankind as a whole. Further, any state-based legal system (SLS) can be analyzed in structuralism tradition by means of logical-algebraic modeling. When the states as a set of the self-sufficient (logistically complete) sovereign hierarchies confront in the international law field (ILF) it leads inevitably to incompleteness of the ILF. In sum, the logistical theorem on war can be elicited.     

Anomia and the sacred canopy: Testing a network theory

This article evaluates the Durkheim/Berger argument that integration in a network of co-religionists protects against anomia. The 1985 General Social Survey network instrument is used to evaluate the effect of integration on anomia and the probability of unhappiness. Results indicate that contact with religiously homogeneous others paired with personal religious belief reduces anomia and the likelihood of unhappiness. Additionally, while ego/alter closeness is important, alter/alter closeness is not. These results suggest that individuals benefit from religious association more so than religious community. Additional analyses indicate that these results are unlikely to be due to homophily.     

Networks and geography: Modelling community network structures as the outcome of both spatial and network processes

This paper focuses on how to extend the exponential random graph models to take into account the geographical embeddedness of individuals in modelling social networks. We develop a hierarchical set of nested models for spatially embedded social networks, in which, following Butts (2002), an interaction function between tie probability and Euclidean distance between nodes is introduced. The models are illustrated by an empirical example from a study of the role of social networks in understanding spatial clustering in unemployment in Australia. The analysis suggests that a spatial effect cannot solely explain the emergence of organised network structure and it is necessary to include both spatial and endogenous network effects in the model.     

Trust between individuals and groups: Groups are less trusting than individuals but just as trustworthy

We compare the behavior of groups and individuals in a two-person trust game. The first mover in this game, the sender, receives an endowment and can send any part of it to the responder; the amount sent is tripled, and the responder can then return to the sender any portion of the tripled sum. In a 2 × 2 design, the players in the roles of sender and responder are either individuals or groups of three players (who conduct face-to-face discussions to decide on a collective group strategy). We find that groups in the role of sender send smaller amounts than individuals, and expect lower returns. In particular, groups send nothing more often than individuals do (and are even more likely to do so when the responder is another group). Groups and individuals in the role of responder return on average the same fraction of the amount sent. Hence, we conclude that groups are less trusting than individuals, but just as trustworthy.     

Ego centered social network and relationship quality: linking attachment security and relational models to network structure

According to Dunbar’s social brain hypothesis, brain capacity puts a limit on the size of social network in humans. At the same time, emotional-cognitive systems such as attachment and different relational models (Fiske, 1991) may also act as driving forces behind network structure underlying relationship quality of the various ego-centered layers. The aim of our study was to examine how these cognitive systems may contribute to network organization.We examined the two inner layers of the ego-network in 274 volunteers, the support and sympathy groups, as well as close family members in comparison to friends within the support group, in terms of attachment security and underlying relational models.     

Extending systems thinking in planning and evaluation using group concept mapping and system dynamics to tackle complex problems

Group concept mapping (GCM) has been successfully employed in program planning and evaluation for over 25 years. The broader set of systems thinking methodologies (of which GCM is one), have only recently found their way into the field. We present an overview of systems thinking emerging from a system dynamics (SD) perspective, and illustrate the potential synergy between GCM and SD. As with GCM, participatory processes are frequently employed when building SD models; however, it can be challenging to engage a large and diverse group of stakeholders in the iterative cycles of divergent thinking and consensus building required, while maintaining a broad perspective on the issue being studied. GCM provides a compelling resource for overcoming this challenge, by richly engaging a diverse set of stakeholders in broad exploration, structuring, and prioritization. SD provides an opportunity to extend GCM findings by embedding constructs in a testable hypothesis (SD model) describing how system structure and changes in constructs affect outcomes over time. SD can be used to simulate the hypothesized dynamics inherent in GCM concept maps. We illustrate the potential of the marriage of these methodologies in a case study of BECOMING, a federally-funded program aimed at strengthening the cross-sector system of care for youth with severe emotional disturbances.     

Strategy and structure in the human firm: Beyond hierarchy,toward flexibility and integration

In response to global competition and a rapidly changing business environment, corporate strategies and structures are becoming more flexible and integrated. This article develops a model of the flexible, integrated firm, a model that focuses on corporate strategy and organizational structure. The flexible-integrated (FI) firm's mode of operation represents tendencies present in high performance, global companies, particularly as these companies have been understood by leading managerial thinkers. The FI-Firm's operations are contrasted with the hierarchical (H) firm. The H-Firm incorporates strategy and structure in a very different way, which reflects the dominant operating mode of the large Western corporation during much of the second half of the twentieth century. Given the nature of today's competition, there are many reasons for believing that the FI-Firm is not only more flexible but also more efficient than the H-Firm.     

Movement without mobility: Adolescent status hierarchies and the contextual limits of cumulative advantage

This paper develops a theory of interpersonal status hierarchies that builds on and challenges traditional models of cumulative advantage. Cumulative advantage models predict stability in interpersonal status hierarchies, where status is defined by asymmetries in social relationships. According to strict cumulative advantage, initial status differences are exaggerated over time, making upward or downward mobility unlikely. We argue that interpersonal status hierarchies are instead quite fluid, with individuals regularly moving up or down the hierarchy. Individual status gains do not, however, disrupt the status order as the upwardly mobile are often pulled back to their original positions. This drag of the past generates the same long run status outcomes as cumulative advantage models, but through very different means: sustained upward mobility is rare because the upwardly mobile fail to maintain their status gains, and not because initial gains are impossible. More generally, the effect of the past limits sustained mobility in most, but not all, status hierarchies, and we expect sustained mobility where ties are stable and the expectations for reciprocity are low. We test our model using longitudinal data on adolescents, finding strong support for the theory. We end the paper with a reflexive discussion about measurement error, hypothesis testing, and “messy” longitudinal network data.     

Organizational status growth and structure: An alliance network analysis

Considering the status system emerging from a structure of corporate affiliations, we examine how alliance patterns among firms affect their changing organizational statuses and the structural development of the status system itself. Firm status is conceptually grounded in sociological theories of status and network analysis. The empirical setting we investigate is the network of alliances among firms in the Global Information Sector. The results indicate a negative effect of initial firm status on the growth rate of individual status, which is associated with the different patterns of alliance affiliations among firms with different status levels. Affiliation patterns also affect the extent of variation in the gap between status strata and firm mobility along the status hierarchy. The results highlight the importance of understanding the structural aspects underlying firm status attainment.     

Producing public goods in networks: Some effects of social comparison and endogenous network change

As actors participate in the production of public goods, processes of social comparison may affect the decisions about the individual contributions as well as the endogenously changing structure of an underlying social network. This leads to the transformation of an ordinary n-player Prisoner's Dilemma of collective action into an n-player coordination game. The paper uses agent-based simulations to trace the formation of public goods while varying network characteristics, such as density, segregation, or the strength of relationships. Additionally, the usage of both a forward- and a backward-looking agent model shows possible implications of different assumptions about the actors’ decision making.     

Ethnic Chinese in Malaysian citizenship: gridlocked in historical formation and political hierarchy

The ethnic Chinese in Malaysia are a significant minority who call for a critical assessment as far as their cultural identity and political positioning are concerned. Appropriating the concept of ‘multicultural citizenship’, this article attempts to dissect various demands and aspirations of the ethnic Chinese in Malaysia’s multiracial hierarchy. It suggests that using the lens of multicultural citizenship can help shed light on Malaysian Chinese as well as the entire nation, where ethnicity and citizenship are gridlocked in historical formation and political hierarchy. In recent times, Malaysian Chinese have articulated their political desires and demands in order to get rid of the disgrace of racial constraints, and also to envisage a more inclusive multicultural citizenship for Malaysia as a nation-state. This article also compares and contrasts three Chinese public figures who have taken disparate stands and approaches with regard to language, culture, race, nation, and party politics.     

A note on the paper ‘cost range and the stable network structures’

The analysis in the paper ‘cost range and the stable network structures’ missed a stable structure —— a line. We explain its reason and reinforce the initial conclusion.     

Beyond the Static Image: Tee Corinne's Roles as a Pioneering Lesbian Artist and Art Historian

While Tee Corinne has been widely recognized as a preeminent lesbian and feminist artist of the last forty years, little has been written about her as an artist or art historian in any substantial way. This article attempts to shed light on Corinne's investment in creating explicitly sexual lesbian visual art and art historical writings that put pressure on the categories of artist and art historian between the 1970s and early 2000s. Corinne's work manages to fulfill feminist ideals while also working outside of the norms set up in both the lesbian and mainstream realms of art and art history.     

Making Heterogeneous Space: Land Development and the Proletarianization of Urban Underclass in Post War Japan

This paper aims to focus on a correlation between urban land development and a “proletarianization” of day‐laborers by examining Mitsui Fudosan Group [Mitsui Real Estate Group] as an agent of urban developments and construction industry in Japan, with examining daylaborers’ riots and moral economy as a counter‐culture against gentrified urban spaces.It is necessary to acknowledge the fact that the national projects – maintained by the closed market and the subcontracting labor system in the construction industry – also induce a radical opposition against the urban development. Although national projects are inevitably accompanied by gentrification, eviction of the homeless, and social exclusion of the underclass, unavoidable transgression or deviation conflicts with urban development, such as periodic and spontaneous riots by day‐laborers, demonstrates a vulnerability of the national unity. In fact, the day‐laborers changed the street labor market into their own field in order to overturn the hierarchy determined by the subcontracting structure in the construction industry. Their bodily expression in the form of riots had radically transgressed the ideas promoted in the 1964 Tokyo Olympics as “One World,” or the 1970 Osaka Expo as “Progress and Harmony for Mankind.” The Olympic legacy was disrupted boldly and transformed into a radical egalitarian thought in this sense. The underclass is immediately defined and commodified by national projects, however, it does not mean that its body is completely involved in its time and space.     

Diglossia and identity in Northeast Thailand: Linguistic,social, and political hierarchy

The paper explores diglossic relations between Central Thai and phasa isan, a variety officially known as a dialect of Thai, but linguistically close to Lao. Phasa isan is spoken by almost one‐third of Thailand's population but its speakers in the Northeast are often stigmatized as uneducated and backward. We conducted field research mainly among university students in Ubon Ratchathani, a northeastern border province, by drawing upon data from survey questionnaires, reflective essays, interviews, and field observations. The findings suggest a transitional diglossic relationship in which Central Thai is the High and phasa isan the Low variety. These relationships are discussed in terms of nationalism, social hierarchy, and language maintenance and shift.     

Leading the Way in New Product Introductions: Publicity's Message Sequencing Success With Corporate Credibility and Image as Moderators

This investigation further nuanced previous designs in comparing the effectiveness of 4 IMC message sequencing strategies (publicity–publicity, publicity–advertising, advertising–publicity, and advertising–advertising) by introducing them into a new context—new product introductions. In addition, this investigation introduced corporate image and credibility as moderators of the effectiveness of sequence strategies. A 2-phase experiment was conducted involving 423 participants. The results revealed the publicity–publicity sequence strategy is most effective in generating positive product attitude and purchase intent, followed by either sequence of publicity and advertising, with the advertising–advertising strategy being least effective. Positive corporate image and high credibility attenuated the effectiveness of the publicity strategy.     

Time Difference Gentrification as a Bloodless Revolution: Class Structure and Spatial Polarization in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area after the 1980s

Economic disparity in Japan has been increasing since approximately 1980. This change has been particularly significant in one of its global cities, the Tokyo metropolitan area, resulting in a dramatic transformation of its socio‐spatial structure. Until the 1980s, economic disparity in Tokyo was not as large as that in the whole of Japan. Moreover, the concentration of high‐income households in the center of Tokyo was not significant. However, the old middle class, which consist of self‐employed individuals, and small capitalist class began to dissolve in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively, resulting in a decline in the population in the center of the city and its surrounding areas. In the 2000s the new middle class began to move into these areas. This was gentrification; however, because of the time difference between the dissolution of the old middle class and small capitalists and the influx of the new middle class, it was not violent but proceeded in a relatively peaceful manner. Until 1990, in areas 20‐40 km from the center of Tokyo, income levels and the proportion of the new middle class were high, however by 2010 the proportion of the working class had increased, and income levels had fallen significantly. Thus, in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the old middle class and the small capitalists in and around the center of Tokyo were replaced by the new middle class, and a hierarchical socio‐spatial structure culminationg in the center of Tokyo developed.