Risk Perceptions,Optimism, and Natural Hazards

This article uses the panel survey developed for the Health and Retirement Study to evaluate whether Hurricane Andrew in 1992 altered longevity expectations of respondents who lived in Dade County, Florida, the location experiencing the majority of about 20 billion dollars of damage. Longevity expectations have been used as a proxy measure for both individual subjective risk assessments and dispositional optimism. The panel structure allows comparison of those respondents' longevity assessments when the timing of their survey responses bracket Andrew with those of individuals where it does not. After controlling for health effects, the results indicate a significant reduction in longevity expectations due to the information respondents appear to have associated with the storm.     

Perception of Hazards: The Role of Social Trust and Knowledge

Recent research indicates that social trust of those who manage a hazard is strongly correlated to judgments about the hazard's risk and benefits. The present study investigates the more specific question of “For which hazards is this?” It was postulated that when an individual lacks knowledge about a hazard, social trust of authorities managing the hazard determines perceived risks and benefits. On the other hand, when an individual has personal knowledge about a hazard and therefore does not need to rely on managing authorities, social trust is unrelated to judged risks and benefits. Participants (N = 91) assessed risks, benefits, and trust in managing authorities and personal knowledge associated with 25 hazardous technologies and activities. As expected, strong correlations between social trust and judged risks and benefits were observed for hazards about which people did not possess much knowledge. No significant correlations between social trust and judged risks and benefits were found for hazards about which people were knowledgeable. Results suggest that the lay public relies on social trust when making judgments of risks and benefits when personal knowledge about a hazard is lacking. Replicating findings of other studies, the present study also found negative correlations between perceived risks and perceived benefits. When social trust was controlled for, correlations between perceived risks and benefits diminished. Implications of the results for risk management are discussed.     

Artificial Intelligence for Natural Hazards Risk Analysis: Potential,Challenges, and Research Needs

Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have seen increasingly widespread use in everything from consumer products and driverless cars to fraud detection and weather forecasting. The use of AI has transformed many of these application domains. There are ongoing efforts at leveraging AI for disaster risk analysis. This article takes a critical look at the use of AI for disaster risk analysis. What is the potential? How is the use of AI in this field different from its use in nondisaster fields? What challenges need to be overcome for this potential to be realized? And, what are the potential pitfalls of an AI-based approach for disaster risk analysis that we as a society must be cautious of?     

Salient Value Similarity, Social Trust, and Risk/Benefit Perception

It was postulated that shared values determine social trust in institutions and persons related to a technology: One has trust in people holding similar salient values. Furthermore, it was hypothesized that social trust has a positive influence on perceived benefits and a negative impact on perceived risks. Results of a survey of University of Zürich students indicated that the proposed causal model explained perception of pesticides, nuclear power, and artificial sweetener very well. When social trust was controlled, the relation between risks and benefits perceived diminished. Results indicate that social trust is a key predictive factor of the perceived risks and benefits of a technology, and provide support for the salient values similarity theory of social trust.     

Shared Values, Social Trust, and the Perception of Geographic Cancer Clusters

Extensive scientific investigations often fail to identify specific carcinogens that have caused geographic clusters of cancer cases. In many such examples, public health officials and other experts have concluded that the cluster is not the result of a particular local environmental condition. Despite this conclusion by experts, concerned members of local communities often persist in believing that the cancer cluster was not random. The present study accounts for the persistence of this belief on the basis of two factors: (a) the tendency of the human mind to identify patterns (and causes), rather than randomness; and (b) a lack of social trust in public health experts. It was expected that perceived shared values evoke social trust. Individuals who conclude that public health experts share their values should be more likely to accept the experts' conclusion that a cancer cluster reflects randomness, not a particular local cause. Individuals who trust authorities should be more inclined than individuals not having trust to accept that a geographic cluster of cancer cases is a coincidence. Data from Swiss students (N = 334) supported these expectations. Additionally, significant gender differences were observed. Females had less trust in authorities and perceived the cancer cluster as less likely to be a result of pure chance than did males. Practical implications of the results are discussed.     

品牌来源国对顾客忠诚和感知质量的影响机制

关于品牌来源国对消费者品牌忠诚和感知质量的作用机制,针对直接影响机制、间接影响机制、综合影响机制3种理论假说,分别构建理论框架和研究假设,并基于IT行业收集数据进行实证研究。研究结果表明,弹性模型可以更好拟合数据;品牌来源国对顾客忠诚是间接影响机制,对感知质量是综合影响机制。     

Determinants of Trust in Industry, Government, and Citizen''s Groups in Japan

The causal structure of the determinants of trust in industry, government, and citizen's groups in Japan was investigated on the basis of Peters et al. (1997). A preliminary survey of the adequacy of the hypotheses proposed by Peters et al. in Japan was made. A set of hypothesized determinants of trust in Japan was proposed based on results of the preliminary survey. Questionnaires concerning perceptions of trust in the organizations and the proposed determinants were sent by mail to residents in the area where environmental risk problems had emerged. The data were analyzed by covariance structure analysis to construct models of trust in industry, government, and citizen's groups. As a result, "openness and honesty," "concern and care," "competence," "people's concern with risks," and "consensual values" were found to be factors directly determining trust. Suggested in particular is that "openness" of an organization is not attained merely by information disclosure, but also by bi-directional communication with the people. Moreover, these models include "consensual values," which do not appear in the model proposed by Peters et al.     

The Interplay of Science, Values, and Experiences Among Scientists Asked to Evaluate the Hazards of Dioxin, Radon, and Environmental Tobacco Smoke

To investigate the extent to which personal values and experiences among scientists might affect their assessment of risks from dioxin, radon, and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), we conducted an experiment through a telephone survey of 1461 epidemiologists, toxicologists, physicians, and general scientists. Each participant was read a vignette designed to reflect the mainstream scientific thinking on one of the three substances. For half of the participants (group A) the substance was named. For the other half (group B), the substance was not named but was identified only as Substance X, Y, or Z. Knowing the name of the substance had little effect on the scientists' evaluation of dioxin, although those who knew the substance to be dioxin were more likely to rate the substance as a serious environmental health hazard (51% vs. 42%, p = 0.062). For radon, those who knew the substance by name were significantly more likely to consider it an environmental health hazard than were those who knew it as substance Z (91% vs. 78%, p less than 0.001). Participants who knew they were being asked about ETS rather than substance X were significantly more likely to consider the substance an environmental health hazard (88% vs. 66%, p less than 0.001), to consider the substance a serious environmental health hazard (70% vs. 33%, p less than 0.001), to believe that background exposure required public health intervention (85% vs. 41%, p less than 0.001), and to believe that above-background exposure required public health intervention (90% vs. 74%, p less than 0.001). These findings suggest that values and experiences may be influencing health risk assessments for these substances, and indicate the need for more study of this phenomenon.     

经济增长和环境质量相容性政策条件——环境技术进步方向视角下的政策偏向效应检验

现有文献关注政策规制的经济与环境绩效,却并未重视不同类型政策的技术偏向,以及技术偏态情境中经济增长和环境质量相容发展的政策条件。本文扩展Acemoglu等(2012)的环境技术进步方向模型,数理演绎不同性质政策的技术偏向,以及技术进步方向转变时经济增长和环境质量的动态演化过程,再结合我国经济数据进行政策效果评价。研究结果发现:(1)环境技术进步方向是技术研发效率和环境政策累积作用的结果,环境政策会通过影响不同类型技术创新激励的方式,改变环境技术进步方向。(2)异质性政策转变技术进步方向,影响经济增长和环境质量,其作用存在不同的着力点和偏向性。其中,研发补贴政策的清洁技术偏向和产出激励效果明显,而规制类政策的环境质量效应优于研发补贴,但其对经济增长的作用表现出非线性U型特征。(3)单一政策干预往往难以破除经济增长和环境质量的两难困境,而政策组合的效果明显优于单一政策,特别是在碳排放权交易试点地区实施研发补贴政策,以及在碳排放权交易试点地区同时实行环境税与研发补贴,效果明显优于实施单一政策。但最优的政策组合并非固定不变,而往往处于动态变化过程中。     

公司治理强度、审计力度与审计质量

自安然事件以来,公司治理和外部审计的重要性得到了前所未有的重视.本文构建了一个公司所有者与外部审计师之间的博弈理论模型,以分析均衡状态下公司治理强度、审计力度与审计质量之间的关系,并讨论所有者和审计师赔偿责任对博弈均衡的影响.我们特别引入了公司治理成本函数和审计成本函数,并同时考虑了公司所有者和审计师的赔偿责任.在本模型中,公司所有者对公司治理强度的决策和外部审计师对审计力度的决策共同影响审计报告对外部投资者的信息有用性(即审计质量),并最终影响了公司的成交价格.研究得到的主要结论是:(1)均衡状态下公司治理强度的增加有助于提升审计力度和审计质量;(2)所有者赔偿责任的增加只会提高公司成交价格,但不会影响博弈均衡和均衡状态下的审计质量;(3)审计师赔偿责任的增加并不一定导致所有者降低公司治理强度,且只有在特定情况下才能提升审计力度和审计质量.     

资产质量、实物期权与价值体现

依据实物期权理论,以2010年至2013年中国A股上市公司为研究样本,按是否属于ST公司和资产质量得分的十分位数对样本进行分组,研究资产质量得分及其特征对企业价值的影响,进一步使用Vuong检验分析不同组别样本公司资产质量特征表现在价值体现形式的差异性.研究结果表明,不同资产质量的公司具有不同的实物期权类型,资产质量高的公司体现出增长期权价值,而资产质量低的公司体现出清算期权价值.处于成长期的企业,资产的盈利性占主导地位;严重价值毁损的企业,资产的获现性发挥主要作用.中国资本市场整体处于价值增长阶段,但部分经营状况恶化的企业影响了市场的发展,该结论为上市公司退市制度提供了直接证据支持.     

创新数量、创新质量与高技术产业出口

中国已经成为创新大国,拥有较大规模的创新数量,但还不是创新强国,创新质量水平较低。在贸易保护主义日趋严重的今天,研究创新数量、创新质量与外贸出口的互动机制具有重要意义。本文基于高技术产业面板数据,采用面板数据模型、贝叶斯向量自回归模型分析了创新数量、创新质量与出口的互动关系。研究结果表明：创新数量与外贸出口之间呈现良性互动;创新质量与外贸出口互动作用较低;企业研发经费投入能有效地促进创新数量与创新质量的提升;政府研发经费投入不能有效地促进创新数量与创新质量的提升;创新数量、创新质量之间具有一定的良性互动关系。     

地方政府竞争、征税成本与金融资产质量

本文从理论和实证两方面探讨了在地方政府竞争背景下,地方政府征税成本对货币发行与地区金融资产质量的影响.本文的研究发现由于从金融部门荻取金融资源这一外部性很强的方式成为地方政府间竞争的重要手段,其后果将使地方政府特别是难以获得充足税收收入的地方政府更倾向于通过干预金融部门为公共投资融资,这构成了引起地方金融资产质量下降,金融生态环境难以改善的重要制度性原因.本文认为只有继续深化金融改革,提高金融部门独立性,并且使地方政府财权和事权相适应,才可能正确引导地方政府积极性.使地方财政和金融两方面都步入良性循环的轨道.     

基于服务质量保证策略的定价、补偿和缺陷承诺

分析了基于服务质量保证策略的定价、补偿和缺陷承诺问题。运用比较静态分析分别求解服务商基于自身利润最大化的最优服务价格、最优单位质量缺陷补偿成本和最优质量缺陷承诺。通过数值分析,验证了所提出的服务商最优决策的有效性。     

溢出效应、质量效应与折现效应对新产品导入时间的影响

本文在分析品牌延伸三大效应的基础上,结合基于不确定市场环境的R&D模型,证明和解释了延伸产品的最佳导入时间与新品牌产品的最佳导入时间之间的关系.     

An Empirical Study of the Relations Between Hospital Volume,Teaching Status,and Service Quality

This paper contributes to research on quality drivers in healthcare settings by examining the relationships between patient volume, teaching mission, and process quality in US hospitals. To develop a model that accurately assesses the impact of patient volume and teaching status on quality, we draw on three related research streams pertaining to the volume–quality relationship, the comparative quality of care in teaching and non‐teaching hospitals, and quality drivers in service institutions. We propose the impact of patient volume on process quality varies across hospitals with different teaching intensities. The test of this proposition uses a large data set that measures process quality for treatments for heart attacks and heart failures in all major US hospitals. Our results suggest that, as hospital teaching intensity increases, greater patient volume is associated with decreased process quality. Never before was such a relationship uncovered. This initial finding has important practical implications. First, the regionalization policy of hospitals should be re‐evaluated in light of their teaching function. Second, the root causes for the lower quality scores of large, high resident‐to‐bed ratio teaching hospitals, compared with smaller versions, must be found.     

审计师任期、事务所任期与审计质量

利用审计师对财务危机的公司是否出具持续经营的查核意见,以及企业的异常营运资本,作为研究衡量审计质量良莠的代理变量,分析了中国审计师任期与会计师事务所任期对审计质量的影响。如果以查核意见作为被解释变量,没有发现审计师任期或事务所任期与审计质量有关联性的证据。然而,一旦以异常营运资本作为分析对象时,则发现较长的审计师任期有助于提高审计质量的证据。此外,当企业有增加盈余的动机时,还发现会计师事务所内的审计师之间有审计经验传承的效果。进一步的分析则显示,前述的发现主要来自于非四大会计师事务所。换言之,审计师任期的经验效果对于非四大会计师事务所更为重要。     

基于产品质量监管视角的政府、企业与消费者博弈策略研究

鉴于政府、企业与消费者在产品质量监管过程中的重要作用,提出了三方协同监管产品质量的新模式。有别于政府、企业和消费者间的两两博弈,构建了政府、企业和消费者共同参与的产品质量监管博弈模型。通过求解博弈模型的混合战略Nash均衡解,分析了影响三方策略选择的因素,并代入实际数据运用Matlab 7.0对博弈模型进行了算例分析。研究结果表明影响政府监管行为的因素是政府对违规企业的惩罚、企业对消费者损失的赔偿、企业生产合格产品与不合格产品的成本。企业生产合格产品的行为与政府监管成本、企业受到政府惩罚力度、生产不合格产品对政府造成的直接经济损失及间接经济损失因素有关。消费者维权成本及企业对消费者损失的赔偿是影响消费者维权的主要因素。研究得出政府监管企业概率越大,企业生产合格产品的概率越大;消费者维权概率变大时,企业生产合格产品的概率变大,而此时政府监管生产企业的概率变小。最后,从产品质量监管角度,提出了提高政府监管效率、保障企业产品质量、发挥消费者监督优势的建议及措施。     

市场导向、质量导向与企业绩效关系的研究

以110家中国企业为样本,通过验证性因子分析,研究市场导向、质量导向与企业绩效之间的关系.研究发现,市场导向与质量导向呈显著正相关,且市场导向能够积极地提升企业绩效;质量导向需要市场驱动来提升质量改进努力对企业绩效的影响.     

公仆型领导、员工集体和个人的工作态度对服务质量的影响

作者在13家宾馆和餐馆进行了一次实证研究,探讨饭店管理人员的公仆型领导风格、员工集体和个人的工作态度对员工的服务质量的影响。多层次线性模型分析结果表明,部门的公仆型领导氛围会直接影响员工集体的工作满意感,并通过集体情感性归属感,间接影响员工的服务质量。部门的公仆型领导氛围会调节员工感知的部门负责人的公仆型领导风格对他们的服务质量的影响;员工集体的情感性归属感会调节员工个人的工作满意感和情感性归属感对服务质量的影响。