高油价敲响世界变革的钟声

国际原油价格上涨带来的也并非都是坏事．它正在从多个领域推动世界产生革命性变化。     

成熟企业突破性创新战略管理策略

面对日益动荡的市场环境和迅速的技术发展,为保持企业持续竞争优势,成熟企业必须开展突破性创新。突破性创新代表了革命性的技术进步,渐进性创新则是对旧技术的微小改进或调整。突破性创新和渐进性创新的差异,主要体现在技术内容的新颖程度(即根植于创新中的新知识的程度)上,渐进性创新建立在成熟企业使用的既有知识上,持续地改进那些用来实现企业目标的方法和材料;因为突破性创     

制定反倾销策略的一种决策方法研究

研究倾销幅度变化引致的进口国经济和就业的变化对进口国制定反倾销策略有重要参考价值。本文建立了计算倾销对进口国经济直接、关联和完全影响的可计算局部均衡-投入占用产出模型。在该模型的基础上,逐一分析倾销幅度的变化所引起的进口国产业总产出的变化、就业的变化和消费者福利的变化,并给出了它们之间变化关系的经济数学表达式。该研究为制定反倾销策略提供了一种决策方法。     

基于静态与动态双重视角下的企业规模、竞争复杂性与市场绩效的关系研究——来自中国家电行业的实证检验

本文从静态和动态的双重视角出发,研究中国家电行业内不同企业规模与规模变化对竞争复杂性的三个维度(行动多样性、行动变化性和行动新奇性)的影响差异,以及这些行动特点是如何进一步影响市场绩效的.结果 显示,企业规模以及规模变化对行动多样性、行动变化和行动新奇具有显著的正向作用,行动多样性、行动变化和行动新奇对市场绩效有显著的正向作用.本文既丰富了动态竞争领域的研究成果,又对中国家电行业内不同规模的企业如何选择合适的竞争策略组合,以及当自身规模发生变化时家电企业应该如何参与竞争等方面具有借鉴意义.     

基于对MACD指标中DIFF反转分析法与DIFF、DEA反转交叉法的统计分析建立股票短线交易策略

目前证券市场上的投资者有很多属于短线投机者,而对于短线投机,迅速掌握一套简单易行且正确完善的技术指标是必须的。本文基于对MACD指标两种反转分析方法的实证统计检验,并回归分析,建立了两种简易而又正确的短期股票交易策略。     

替代策略在二级供应链库存管理中的作用

把经典的报童模型扩展到了两产品情况,其中一种产品有多余库存时可以替代另外一种缺货的产品进行销售,探讨了可替代产品在由一个供应商和一个销售商组成的二级供应链中的作用.以二级供应链系统为背景,分别提出了采取替代策略和不采取替代策略两种情况下的stackelberg博弈模型,给出了博弈的Nash均衡解,并分析了这两种情况下供应商的批发价和销售商的订货量随着两种产品的单位销售成本取值不同时的变化.数值分析表明当采取替代策略时,供应商的收益增加,销售商的收益减少,最终供应链的整体收益水平提高了.     

国际服务贸易壁垒新变化及我国的应对

随着金融危机和欧债危机的相继爆发,国际服务贸易壁垒在表现形式和保护重点方面也出现了一些新变化。对此,本文有针对性地提出了我国的应对策略。     

设立执行机构：西方国家政府机构的重大变革

20多年来，声势浩大的公共行政改革席卷西方国家，其中尤其以设立执行机构这一重大变革对西方国家的政府管理产生了革命性影响，为当代资本主义的新发展立下了“汗马功劳”，对人类历史的发展进程也产生了重大影响。     

实达人的哲学——热爱变革

实达人热爱变革,实达人的思想不断在超越,这是我采访实达时感受特别深的,几个月不见,许多人的想法又发生了变化。在求变中寻找新的模式,成为实达人的一种自觉的行为。当然求新求变,还与实达总裁叶龙的一个想法有关,就是如何让实达人重新跳起来。     

变革领导的逻辑进路

面对急剧变化的社会和变动不居的时代,领导需要积极主动而富有创造性地应对,这就促成了变革领导的应运而生. 一、领导因何而变 20世纪70年代以后的国际环境剧变,尤其是石油危机对国际环境产生了重大而深刻的影响,这一时期领导理论开始关注组织与环境之间的关系,重点研究组织如何应对变化和掌控危机.变革理论的产生既有其时代背景,更有其理论渊源,展开来说,变革理论的主流是多种理论支流的汇合处,是它们共同支撑和积极推动的结果. (一)从常态理论到变革理论 特质理论、行为理论和情境理论关注的重点是常规情况下的领导和稳定状态下的领导活动,但是,组织在由一种稳定状态演化到另一种不同质的稳定状态时,既可能是连续的渐变,也可能是非连续的突变.组织发展过程中不同层次上的各类系统活动,同样存在着非连续性的突变.到20世纪80年代末90年代初,随着彼得·圣吉的《第五项修炼:学习型组织的艺术与实务》和约翰·科特的《变革的力量:领导与管理的差异》等论著的出版,组织变革的理论研究逐渐成为领导学的显学.     

Efficacy Foundations for Risk Communication: How People Think About Reducing the Risks of Climate Change

Believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self‐efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts, according to current risk communication theory. Although the public recognizes the dangers of climate change, and is deluged with lists of possible mitigative actions, little is known about public efficacy beliefs in the context of climate change. Prior efficacy studies rely on conflicting constructs and measures of efficacy, and links between efficacy and risk management actions are muddled. As a result, much remains to learn about how laypersons think about the ease and effectiveness of potential mitigative actions. To bring clarity and inform risk communication and management efforts, we investigate how people think about efficacy in the context of climate change risk management by analyzing unprompted and prompted beliefs from two national surveys (N = 405, N = 1,820). In general, respondents distinguish little between effective and ineffective climate strategies. While many respondents appreciate that reducing fossil fuel use is an effective risk mitigation strategy, overall assessments reflect persistent misconceptions about climate change causes, and uncertainties about the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Our findings suggest targeting climate change risk communication and management strategies to (1) address gaps in people's existing mental models of climate action, (2) leverage existing public understanding of both potentially effective mitigation strategies and the collective action dilemma at the heart of climate change action, and (3) take into account ideologically driven reactions to behavior change and government action framed as climate action.     

A Behavioral Approach to Organizational Change: Reinforcing Those Responsible for Facilitating the Climate and Hence Promoting Diversity

Despite the passage of the U.S. Civil Rights Act in 1964, cries can still be heard for a more diverse workforce. Among the difficulties are retaining often sought-after women and minorities. In this 2-year demonstration, change agents—the provost, deans, and heads of departments/schools of a large public university—were helped to deliberately and directly change the milieu of their departments and schools so as to encourage faculty to remain. Uniquely suited to organizational change, the behavioral approach identifies constructive actions for change agents and, most importantly, provides proven strategies for motivating them. Fostering a supportive climate was defined in terms of change agents’ behaviors. The Building Behaviorally Based Climate Survey was developed and validated. Recognition and feedback were provided in what is typically a feedback desert. This reinforcement model can be used to create and sustain inviting atmospheres, hence enticing all faculty, including women and minority faculty, to stay, hence enabling a diverse workforce.     

Finding the essential difference

The idea of what is essential and what is peripheral is basic to all intelligent management of change. At the core of all our resistance to change is the fear that we will lose something of ourselves, something unrecoverable. "Touching ground"--gaining clarity on what we are truly about, and shaping our strategies around that core--is a key skill of the change master. What is the most important element in helping people deal with change? According to Roger Fritz, President of Leadership by Design, Inc., a St. Louis consulting firm, "Helping them recognize what's essential. There are two kinds of change: Technical change and profound change. A technical change asks you to learn something different. A profound change ask you to be someone different." Too often, we confuse the two and are met with resistance.     

Managing strategies incrementally

When sophisticated large organizations make significant changes in strategy, the approaches they use frequently bear little resemblance to the rational-analytical systems so often touted in the planning literature. Such systems are rarely the source of overall corporate strategies. Instead, the processes used to generate major strategies are typically fragmented and evolutionary with a high degree of intuitive content. Although one usually finds imbedded in these fragments some very refined pieces of formal analysis, overall strategies tend to emerge as a series of conscious internal decisions blend and interact with changing external events to slowly mutate key managers' broad consensus about what patterns of action make sense for the future. Based on a multi-year study of how large companies change their strategies, this article summarizes why strategic managers do proceed incrementally and how they manage the complex process of generating an overall strategy.     

Risk Management Solutions for Climate Change–Induced Disasters

In honor of the 40th anniversary of Risk Analysis, this article suggests ways of linking risk assessment and risk perception in developing risk management strategies that have a good chance of being implemented, focusing on the problem of reducing losses from natural hazards in the face of climate change. Following a checklist for developing an implementable risk management strategy, Section 2 highlights the impact that exponential growth of CO₂ emissions is likely to have on future disaster losses as assessed by climate and social scientists. Section 3 then discusses how people perceive the risks of low-probability adverse events and the cognitive biases that lead them to underprepare for future losses. Based on this empirical evidence, Section 4 proposes a risk management strategy for reducing future losses using the principles of choice architecture to communicate the likelihood and consequences of disasters, coupled with economic incentives and well-enforced regulations.     

A Framework to Guide Thinking and Analysis Regarding Climate Change Policies

The potential impacts from climate change, and climate change policies, are massive. Careful thinking about what we want climate change policies to achieve is a crucial first step for analysts to help governments make wise policy choices to address these concerns. This article presents an adaptive framework to help guide comparative analysis of climate change policies. The framework recognizes the inability to forecast long-term impacts (due in part to path dependance) as a constraint on the use of standard policy analysis, and stresses learning over time as a fundamental concern. The framework focuses on the objectives relevant for climate change policy in North America over the near term (e.g., the next 20 years). For planning and evaluating current climate policy alternatives, a combination of fundamental objectives for the near term and proxy objectives for characterizing the state of the climate problem and the ability to address it at the end of that term is suggested. Broad uses of the framework are discussed, along with some concrete examples. The framework is intended to provide a basis for policy analysis that explicitly considers the benefits of learning over time to improve climate change policies.     

Change agent's contribution to recipients' resistance to change: A two-sided story

In the change management literature, most studies on recipients' resistance to change include only the views of agents or of recipients, thereby ignoring that these parties may have different perceptions. In this quantitative study, we include the perceptions of both parties in studying the recipients' resistance and the impact of the agent's leadership behavior. In a sample of 117 agent-recipients groupings, covering 110 different change projects in 90 organizations, we found that agents perceive higher levels of recipients' resistance than do the recipients themselves. Additionally, we found that agents who create space to enable recipients to think and act differently (by employing creating behavior) report higher levels of recipients' resistance, whereas recipients perceive their resistance to be lowered when agents facilitate an emotional connection to the change (framing behavior). The depth of the change appeared to moderate the relationship between agent's leadership behavior and recipients' resistance, indicating that agents and recipients differ in which change leadership behaviors they perceive as increasing or decreasing resistance at different levels of change depth. These findings imply to reconsider the relationship between agent and recipients and we propose some promising avenues for future studies in resistance research.     

Efficacy,Action, and Support for Reducing Climate Change Risks

A growing body of research demonstrates that believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self‐efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts. Despite this potentially critical role of efficacy beliefs, measures and their use vary wildly in climate change risk perception and communication research, making it hard to compare and learn from efficacy studies. To address this problem and advance our understanding of efficacy beliefs, this article makes three contributions. First, we present a theoretically motivated approach to measuring climate change mitigation efficacy, in light of diverse proposed, perceived, and previously researched strategies. Second, we test this in two national survey samples (Amazon's Mechanical Turk N = 405, GfK Knowledge Panel N = 1,820), demonstrating largely coherent beliefs by level of action and discrimination between types of efficacy. Four additive efficacy scales emerge: personal self‐efficacy, personal response efficacy, government and collective self‐efficacy, and government and collective response efficacy. Third, we employ the resulting efficacy scales in mediation models to test how well efficacy beliefs predict climate change policy support, controlling for specific knowledge, risk perceptions, and ideology, and allowing for mediation by concern. Concern fully mediates the relatively strong effects of perceived risk on policy support, but only partly mediates efficacy beliefs. Stronger government and collective response efficacy beliefs and personal self‐efficacy beliefs are both directly and indirectly associated with greater support for reducing the risks of climate change, even after controlling for ideology and causal beliefs about climate change.     

价格和成本波动对CoPS合约方不合作行为影响的演化分析

在合同执行过程中因环境不确定性引发的违约行为,是导致复杂产品系统项目失败的重要原因。论文研究了环境波动（具体到市场价格波动和研制成本波动）对复杂产品系统合约方不合作行为的影响。首先研究了价格下降情况下买卖双方的收益函数、论证了收益函数中各变量与价格下降之间的逻辑关系,构建了复制动态方程、分析了用户不合作行为的演化路径和阈值与价格下降的关系;之后以同样的逻辑研究了价格上升情况下集成商的不合作行为;最后用数值仿真演示了初始条件改变和决策参数的不同取值对演化结果的影响。研究发现：（1）博弈双方收益函数中的各变量在价格下降时均是价格下降程度的函数,在价格上升时均是成本上涨程度的函数;（2）用户行为与价格下降的关系：当价格下降幅度小于用户合作阈值时合作是演化的结果,当价格下降幅度超过用户不合作阈值时不合作是演化的结果,当价格下降幅度界于合作阈值和不合作阈值之间时演化结果取决于对方的行为;（3）集成商行为与成本上升的关系：当成本上升幅度小于集成商合作阈值时合作是演化的结果,当成本上升幅度超过集成商不合作阈值时不合作是演化的结果,当成本上升幅度界于合作阈值和不合作阈值之间时演化结果取决于对方的行为。研究揭示了不合作行为与价格下降及成本上升的突变非线性关系,找出了合作和不合作的阈值。研究是环境不确定情境下合约治理理论在复杂产品系统及相关项目管理领域的深入,研究结果可为管理实践的合约治理提供决策支持,提高复杂产品系统项目的成功率。     

Dealing with Ethical Dilemmas in Organizational Change Processes

Several theories exist on how managers think aboutethical responsibilities in a business environment.Some stress the economic way of thinking and explainwhy there is no space for moral reasoning in abusiness environment. Others claim that in a businessenvironment also moral considerations can play animportant role. In this article, we will explore theway managers have actually dealt with potentialdilemmas in organizational change processes,especially changes with drastic consequences foremployees. Do managers consider moral arguments? Dothey feel a moral responsibility towards theiremployees? And in what way do they include a moralresponsibility in the decision process and itsoutcomes? These questions were investigated throughcase studies in two organisations and interviews withsix managers in other companies. The framework whichis used in the research will be described and the mainresults of the field-research will be presented. Wedid find that managers actually strived to some extentfor fair and morally responsible solutions in dilemmasituations, but in another way then we expectedbeforehand. Managers did not base their acting onmoral arguments. Instead they used a more pragmaticapproach wherein acting in a morally responsible wayis based on strategic arguments, such as the positiveeffects for the organisation in the long run.