Perceived risk,emotions, and stress in response to COVID-19: The interplay of media use and partisanship

Relationships between risk perceptions, emotions, and stress are well-documented, as are interconnections between stress, emotion, and media use. During the early COVID-19 pandemic, the public responded psychologically to the threat posed by the pandemic, and frequently utilized media for information and entertainment. However, we lack a comprehensive picture of how perceived risk, emotion, stress, and media affected each other longitudinally during this time. Further, although response to the pandemic was highly politicized, research has yet to address how partisan affiliation moderated relationships between risk, emotion, stress, and media use over time. This three-wave (N = 1021) panel study assessed the interplay of risk, emotion, stress, and media use for Americans with different political affiliations between March and May of 2020. Findings indicate that perceived risk, emotion, and stress at Time 1 predicted media use at Time 2, with predictors varying by type of media. Use of entertainment media and social/mobile media predicted later stress (Time 3), but news consumption did not. Later risk perceptions (Time 3) were not influenced by media use at Time 2. The predictors and consequences of different types of media use were notably different for Republicans and Democrats. In particular, risk perceptions predicted greater news use among Democrats but greater entertainment media use among Republicans. Moreover, social/mobile media use resulted in perceiving the risks of COVID-19 as less serious for Republicans while increasing stress over time for Democrats.     

SEIR Model to address the impact of face masks amid COVID-19 pandemic

Early in the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), face masks were used extensively by the general public in several Asian countries. The lower transmission rate of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Asian countries compared with Western countries suggested that the wider community use of face masks has the potential to decrease transmission of SARS-CoV-2. A risk assessment model named Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model is used to quantitatively evaluate the potential impact of community face masks on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number (R₀) and peak number of infectious persons. For a simulated population of one million, the model showed a reduction in R₀ of 49% and 50% when 60% and 80% of the population wore masks, respectively. Moreover, we present a modified model that considers the effect of mask-wearing after community vaccination. Interestingly mask-wearing still provided a considerable benefit in lowering the number of infectious individuals. The results of this research are expected to help public health officials in making prompt decisions involving resource allocation and crafting legislation.     

Selecting Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Influenza

Models of influenza transmission have focused on the ability of vaccination, antiviral therapy, and social distancing strategies to mitigate epidemics. Influenza transmission, however, may also be interrupted by hygiene interventions such as frequent hand washing and wearing masks or respirators. We apply a model of influenza disease transmission that incorporates hygiene and social distancing interventions. The model describes population mixing as a Poisson process, and the probability of infection upon contact between an infectious and susceptible person is parameterized by p. While social distancing interventions modify contact rates in the population, hygiene interventions modify p. Public health decision making involves tradeoffs, and we introduce an objective function that considers the direct costs of interventions and new infections to determine the optimum intervention type (social distancing versus hygiene intervention) and population compliance for epidemic mitigation. Significant simplifications have been made in these models. However, we demonstrate that the method is feasible, provides plausible results, and is sensitive to the selection of model parameters. Specifically, we show that the optimum combination of nonpharmaceutical interventions depends upon the probability of infection, intervention compliance, and duration of infectiousness. Means by which realism can be increased in the method are discussed.     

Interactive Hazards Education Program for Youth in a Low SES Community: A Quasi‐Experimental Pilot Study

A pilot study of an interactive hazards education program was carried out in Canberra (Australia), with direct input from youth participants. Effects were evaluated in relation to youths’ interest in disasters, motivation to prepare, risk awareness, knowledge indicators, perceived preparedness levels, planning and practice for emergencies, and fear and anxiety indicators. Parents also provided ratings, including of actual home‐based preparedness activities. Using a single group pretest‐posttest with benchmarking design, a sample of 20 youths and their parents from a low SES community participated. Findings indicated beneficial changes on a number of indicators. Preparedness indicators increased significantly from pre‐ to posttest on both youth (p < 0.01) and parent ratings (p < 0.01). Parent ratings reflected an increase of just under six home‐based preparedness activities. Youth knowledge about disaster mitigation also was seen to increase significantly (p < 0.001), increasing 39% from pretest levels. While personalized risk perceptions significantly increased (p < 0.01), anxiety and worry levels were seen either not to change (generalized anxiety, p > 0.05) or to reduce between pre‐ and posttest (hazards‐specific fears, worry, and distress, ps ranged from p < 0.05 to < 0.001). In terms of predictors of preparedness, a number of variables were found to predict posttest preparedness levels, including information searching done by participants between education sessions. These pilot findings are the first to reflect quasi‐experimental outcomes for a youth hazards education program carried out in a setting other than a school that focused on a sample of youth from a low SES community.     

Three dimensions of COVID-19 risk perceptions and their socioeconomic correlates in the United States: A social media analysis

Social media analysis provides an alternate approach to monitoring and understanding risk perceptions regarding COVID-19 over time. Our current understandings of risk perceptions regarding COVID-19 do not disentangle the three dimensions of risk perceptions (perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and negative emotion) as the pandemic has evolved. Data are also limited regarding the impact of social determinants of health (SDOH) on COVID-19-related risk perceptions over time. To address these knowledge gaps, we extracted tweets regarding COVID-19-related risk perceptions and developed indicators for the three dimensions of risk perceptions based on over 502 million geotagged tweets posted by over 4.9 million Twitter users from January 2020 to December 2021 in the United States. We examined correlations between risk perception indicator scores and county-level SDOH. The three dimensions of risk perceptions demonstrate different trajectories. Perceived severity maintained a high level throughout the study period. Perceived susceptibility and negative emotion peaked on March 11, 2020 (COVID-19 declared global pandemic by WHO) and then declined and remained stable at lower levels until increasing once again with the Omicron period. Relative frequency of tweet posts on risk perceptions did not closely follow epidemic trends of COVID-19 (cases, deaths). Users from socioeconomically vulnerable counties showed lower attention to perceived severity and susceptibility of COVID-19 than those from wealthier counties. Examining trends in tweets regarding the multiple dimensions of risk perceptions throughout the COVID-19 pandemic can help policymakers frame in-time, tailored, and appropriate responses to prevent viral spread and encourage preventive behavior uptake in the United States.     

Behavioral pathways to private well risk mitigation: A structural equation modeling approach

Complex, multihazard risks such as private groundwater contamination necessitate multiannual risk reduction actions including seasonal, weather-based hazard evaluations. In the Republic of Ireland (ROI), high rural reliance on unregulated private wells renders behavior promotion a vital instrument toward safeguarding household health from waterborne infection. However, to date, pathways between behavioral predictors remain unknown while latent constructs such as extreme weather event (EWE) risk perception and self-efficacy (perceived behavioral competency) have yet to be sufficiently explored. Accordingly, a nationwide survey of 560 Irish private well owners was conducted, with structural equation modeling (SEM) employed to identify underlying relationships determining key supply management behaviors. The pathway analysis (SEM) approach was used to model three binary outcomes: information seeking, post-EWE action, and well testing behavior. Upon development of optimal models, perceived self-efficacy emerged as a significant direct and/or indirect driver of all three behavior types—demonstrating the greatest indirect effect (β = −0.057) on adoption of post-EWE actions and greatest direct (β = 0.222) and total effect (β = 0.245) on supply testing. Perceived self-efficacy inversely influenced EWE risk perception in all three models but positively influenced supply awareness (where present). Notably, the presence of a vulnerable (infant and/or elderly) household member negatively influenced adoption of post-EWE actions (β = −0.131, p = 0.016). Results suggest that residential and age-related factors constitute key demographic variables influencing risk mitigation and are strongly mediated by cognitive variables—particularly self-efficacy. Study findings may help contextualize predictors of private water supply management, providing a basis for future risk-based water interventions.     

Is a disease leader attractive? Six tests of whether the COVID-19 pandemic affected follower preferences for attractiveness,health and other traits in political and non-political leaders

Attractive political candidates receive more votes on Election Day compared to their less attractive competitors. One well-cited theoretical account for this attractiveness effect (White et al., 2013) holds that it reflects an adaptive psychological response to disease threats. Voters are predicted to upregulate preferences for attractiveness because it constitutes a cue to health. The global COVID-19 pandemic constitutes an ecologically relevant and realistic setting for further testing this prediction. Here, we report the results from six tests of the prediction based on two large and nationally representative surveys conducted in Denmark (n = 3297) at the outbreak of the pandemic and one year later. Utilizing experimental techniques, validated individual difference measures of perceived disease threat and geographic data on COVID-19 severity, we do not find that disease threats like the COVID-19 pandemic upregulate preferences for attractive and healthy political or non-political leaders. Instead, respondents display heightened preferences for health in socially proximate relations (i.e. colleagues). Moreover, individuals who react aversively to situations involving risks of pathogen transmission (scoring high in Germ Aversion) report higher importance of a wide range of leadership traits, rather than for health and attractiveness in particular. Results are discussed in relation to evolutionary accounts of leadership and followership.     

Efficacy,Action, and Support for Reducing Climate Change Risks

A growing body of research demonstrates that believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self‐efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts. Despite this potentially critical role of efficacy beliefs, measures and their use vary wildly in climate change risk perception and communication research, making it hard to compare and learn from efficacy studies. To address this problem and advance our understanding of efficacy beliefs, this article makes three contributions. First, we present a theoretically motivated approach to measuring climate change mitigation efficacy, in light of diverse proposed, perceived, and previously researched strategies. Second, we test this in two national survey samples (Amazon's Mechanical Turk N = 405, GfK Knowledge Panel N = 1,820), demonstrating largely coherent beliefs by level of action and discrimination between types of efficacy. Four additive efficacy scales emerge: personal self‐efficacy, personal response efficacy, government and collective self‐efficacy, and government and collective response efficacy. Third, we employ the resulting efficacy scales in mediation models to test how well efficacy beliefs predict climate change policy support, controlling for specific knowledge, risk perceptions, and ideology, and allowing for mediation by concern. Concern fully mediates the relatively strong effects of perceived risk on policy support, but only partly mediates efficacy beliefs. Stronger government and collective response efficacy beliefs and personal self‐efficacy beliefs are both directly and indirectly associated with greater support for reducing the risks of climate change, even after controlling for ideology and causal beliefs about climate change.     

Effort-reward imbalance,overcommitment and sleep in a working population

The relationship between workplace characteristics and nocturnal sleep in a working population was investigated. Data from 709 employees (mean age=39 years; 87% men) from two German companies were analysed at the entry of the longitudinal cohort study (overall accrual 73%). We investigated the association between the effort-reward imbalance model at work (Siegrist, ) and self-reported sleep quality and sleep disturbances, as assessed by the Jenkins Sleep Quality Index. Effort and overcommitment were found to be higher, and reward was lower in participants with lower (N=328) vs. higher sleep quality (N=381), as well as in participants with (N=217) vs. without (N=492) disturbed sleep (all ps<.001). In regression analyses, lower sleep quality (R ²=.33) and sleep disturbances (R ² _Nagelkerke=.33) were predicted by older age, female gender (only significant for sleep disturbances), shift-work, lower physical and mental health functioning, and higher overcommitment. Individuals were 1.7 times more likely to report disturbed sleep per standard deviation increase in overcommitment. Gender-stratified analyses revealed that higher overcommitment was associated with unfavourable sleep in men, while in women poor sleep was related to lower reward. The findings suggest that overcommitment at work interferes with restful sleep in men, while in women disturbed sleep may be associated with the amount of overcommitment and perceived job reward and sleep quality associated with the perceived reward.     

Ethical and despotic leadership, relationships with leader's social responsibility, top management team effectiveness and subordinates' optimism: A multi-method study

In this multi-method study, we examined the relationships of leader's social responsibility with different aspects of ethical leadership (morality and fairness, role clarification, and power sharing) as well as with despotic leadership. We also investigated how these leadership behaviors relate to effectiveness and optimism, using multiple-source ratings. Interviews with CEOs (N = 73) were coded for the presence of leader's social responsibility and its facets. Also, using questionnaires, direct reports rated each CEOs' leader behavior (n = 130) and a second group of direct reports (n = 119) rated effectiveness and optimism. As expected, leaders high on social responsibility were rated higher on ethical leadership and lower on despotic leadership. Ethical leadership was also positively related to perceived top management team effectiveness and subordinates' optimism about the future of the organization and their own place within it.     

Multilevel causal attributions on transboundary risk: Effects on attributions of responsibility,psychological distance,and policy support

This study used two randomized experiments in a prospective design (Study 1 N = 297, Study 2 N = 296) to examine how multilevel causal attribution dimensions (internal vs. external to an individual or a country) shape domestic and foreign policy support to counter transboundary risk. Results from Study 1 and 2 showed that external-country (vs. internal-country) causal attribution reduced perceptions of internal-country attributions of responsibility, which had a cross-lagged effect on support for domestic-industry policies to mitigate the risk. In contrast, perceptions of external-country attributions of responsibility increased support for foreign policies in a 2-week follow up. This study offers theoretical insights into the demarcation of multilevel causal attribution dimensions in studying media framing effects. It also highlights some important causal mechanisms of how media frames shape public support for policies aimed at transboundary risk mitigation.     

The Effect of Proximity to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on Subsequent Hurricane Outlook and Optimistic Bias

This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina‐Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism. Data were collected in January 2006 through a mail survey sent to 1,375 households in 41 counties on the coast (n = 824, 60% response). The analysis used hierarchal regression to test hypotheses. Hurricane history and population density had no effect on outlook; individuals who were male, older, and with higher household incomes were associated with lower risk perception; individual hurricane experience and personal impacts from Katrina and Rita predicted greater risk perception; greater dispositional optimism predicted more optimistic outlook; distance had a small effect but predicted less optimistic outlook at greater distance (model R²= 0.21). The model for optimistic bias had fewer effects: age and community tenure were significant; dispositional optimism had a positive effect on optimistic bias; distance variables were not significant (model R²= 0.05). The study shows that an existing measure of hurricane outlook has utility, hurricane outlook appears to be a unique concept from hurricane optimistic bias, and proximity has at most small effects. Future extension of this research will include improved conceptualization and measurement of hurricane risk perception and will bring to focus several concepts involving risk communication.     

Hostile media perceptions and consumption of genetically modified and organic foods: Examining the mediating role of risk-benefit assessments

Drawing upon the hostile media effect, this study examined how perceived media bias in covering genetically modified (GM) food influences individuals’ risk–benefit assessments of it and their food consumption behaviors. The results of a nationally representative survey (N = 1364) showed that individuals seeing media coverage as more biased in favor of GM food perceived it as more hazardous, which was related to a higher proportion of organic food consumption in their diets. In contrast, perceived media coverage as less slanted toward GM food was associated with more benefit perceptions of it, thereby predicting its higher proportion in individuals’ diets. More importantly, the indirect effect of perceived media bias on GM food consumption through benefit perceptions was more pronounced among males than females. The findings of this study not only provide empirical evidence of the perceptual and behavioral outcomes of hostile media perceptions, but also offer valuable insights for journalists and education practitioners to improve public understanding of emerging food technologies.     

Risk Communication,Values Clarification,and Vaccination Decisions

Many health‐related decisions require choosing between two options, each with risks and benefits. When presented with such tradeoffs, people often make choices that fail to align with scientific evidence or with their own values. This study tested whether risk communication and values clarification methods could help parents and guardians make evidence‐based, values‐congruent decisions about children's influenza vaccinations. In 2013–2014 we conducted an online 2×2 factorial experiment in which a diverse sample of U.S. parents and guardians (n = 407) were randomly assigned to view either standard information about influenza vaccines or risk communication using absolute and incremental risk formats. Participants were then either presented or not presented with an interactive values clarification interface with constrained sliders and dynamic visual feedback. Participants randomized to the risk communication condition combined with the values clarification interface were more likely to indicate intentions to vaccinate (β = 2.10, t(399) = 2.63, p < 0.01). The effect was particularly notable among participants who had previously demonstrated less interest in having their children vaccinated against influenza (β = –2.14, t(399) = –2.06, p < 0.05). When assessing vaccination status reported by participants who agreed to participate in a follow‐up study six months later (n = 116), vaccination intentions significantly predicted vaccination status (OR = 1.66, 95%CI (1.13, 2.44), p < 0.05) and rates of informed choice (OR = 1.51, 95%CI (1.07, 2.13), p < 0.012), although there were no direct effects of experimental factors on vaccination rates. Qualitative analysis suggested that logistical barriers impeded immunization rates. Risk communication and values clarification methods may contribute to increased vaccination intentions, which may, in turn, predict vaccination status if logistical barriers are also addressed.     

Change in Public Concern and Responsive Behaviors Toward Air Pollution Under the Dome

This study evaluates the effect of the documentary Under the Dome on the concern and responsive behaviors of the public regarding air pollution in China, with two surveys conducted before and after watching the documentary. Employing difference-in-differences regression, this study answers two research questions: (1) Does Under the Dome change public concern about air pollution? (2) Does Under the Dome change public behaviors in response to air pollution, including protective behaviors (i.e., wearing face masks) and mitigation behaviors (i.e., reducing car driving)? We find that the information campaign (1) protects against the decline of public concern about air pollution in Beijing and (2) moderates the degree to which people's perceived severity, perceived susceptibility, and sense of self-efficacy influence protective behaviors and moderates the degree to which people's belief in the cooperative behaviors by others influences mitigation behaviors. This study provides evidence that information campaigns of the Under the Dome type are effective in raising public awareness; however, the information campaign did not directly influence public protective and mitigation behaviors.     

Mycotoxins were not associated with environmental enteropathy in a cohort of Tanzanian children

Enteropathy is a pathophysiological condition characterized by decreased intestinal barrier function and absorption. Past studies have hypothesized that mycotoxins might impair children's growth by causing intestinal enteropathy, including interactions between mycotoxins and pathogens. We investigated the association of two mycotoxins, aflatoxin B₁ (AFB₁) and fumonisin B₁ (FB₁), independently and in conjunction with microbial pathogens, with fecal biomarkers of environmental enteropathy in children. As part of a larger MAL-ED study, 196 children were recruited in Haydom, Tanzania, and followed for the first 36 months of life. The gut inflammation biomarkers myeloperoxidase (MPO), neopterin (NEO), and alpha-1-antitrypsin (A1AT) were analyzed in stool samples at 24 months; with mean concentrations 5332.5 ng/L MPO, 807.2 nmol/L NEO, and 0.18 mg/g A1AT. Forty-eight children were measured for AFB₁-lys, with a mean of 5.30 (95% CI: 3.93-6.66) pg/mg albumin; and 87 were measured for FB₁, with a mean of 1.25 (95% CI: 0.72–1.76) ng/ml urine. Although the pathogens adenovirus and Campylobacter were associated with A1AT (p = 0.049) and NEO (p = 0.004), respectively, no association was observed between aflatoxin (MPO, p = 0.30; NEO, p = 0.08; A1AT, p = 0.24) or fumonisin (MPO, p = 0.38; NEO, p = 0.65; A1AT, p = 0.20) exposure and any gut inflammation biomarkers; nor were interactive effects found between mycotoxins and pathogens in contributing to intestinal enteropathy in this cohort. Although further studies are needed to confirm these results, it is possible that mycotoxins contribute to child growth impairment via mechanisms other than disrupting children's intestinal function.     

How People Perceive and Will Cope with Risks from the Diffusion of Ubiquitous Information and Communication Technologies

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are increasingly pervasive and continue to reshape our environment. This trend carries different risks. Therefore, the early sensitization of people to these risks, as well as improving their capacity for protective coping behavior, is essential. Based on the protection motivation theory (PMT), we examined with structural equation modeling the relationships between different components of threat and coping appraisal to explain protective and nonprotective responses. Calculations were performed with data from a representative survey on perception and use of ICT among German residents (N= 5,030). Our findings largely supported the proposed model: an increased perceived threat was positively related to the intentions to react protectively and nonprotectively. Perceived coping efficacy increased the protective and decreased the nonprotective responses. Negative affect enhanced the perceived threat and the nonprotective response, but inhibited protective intentions. The implications of these findings on how to sensitize people to the risks of these new technologies are outlined.     

Health insurance system and resilience to epidemics

We theoretically analyze the resilience (efficiency) of health insurance systems and diverse factors including trace and test technology, infection and contagion rates, and social distancing/lockdown policy, in coping with contagious diseases like COVID-19. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, public insurance is more resilient than market insurance, as the former's investment in test technology is made at the social optimum, whereas the latter's investment is less. The decentralized behavior of competing insurers leads to a less resilient outcome. Second, resilience decreases as the market becomes more competitive because the externality effect becomes more severe. Third, a higher contagion rate, a more cost-efficient test technology or a higher initial infection rate unless it is not too high, leads to a higher test accuracy level. Fourth, the socially optimal social distancing/lockdown policy is determined by comparison between its relative costs and the benefit from contagion reduction.     

Identifying Promising Messages to Increase Hurricane Mitigation Among Coastal Homeowners in the United States

Hurricanes threaten the physical and financial well-being of coastal residents throughout the United States. Though hurricane-related losses are largely avoidable through property mitigation (e.g., structural modifications to existing homes), few homeowners invest in mitigation. Communication campaigns, which have influenced risk-related behaviors in other domains, hold promise for persuading coastal residents to engage in hurricane mitigation. The development of successful campaign messages relies, in part, on formative research to assess the potential influence of candidate message strategies. We present results from mixed-methods, theory-driven research to identify promising beliefs for persuading homeowners in coastal/coastal-adjacent regions of Alabama and Florida to install a high wind–resistant (HWR) roof. In Study 1, we elicited homeowners’ (n = 74) salient behavioral, normative, and control beliefs about installing an HWR roof. Using established procedures, we content analyzed open-ended responses and categorized them by thematic content. In Study 2, we surveyed another sample of homeowners (n = 533) to examine the extent to which salient beliefs/themes about installing an HWR roof (elicited in Study 1) are promising targets for a communication campaign, given their associations with homeowners’ intentions to retrofit. Results demonstrate that across elicited beliefs, common themes include the protection and property resilience reroofing affords, and anticipated expenses and financial barriers associated with reroofing. The most promising beliefs include behavioral beliefs that installing an HWR roof will protect oneself and one's family, and normative beliefs about the likelihood that one's family and community will install an HWR roof. We discuss the implications of findings for the development of hurricane mitigation messaging.     

Measuring feelings about choices and risks: The Berlin Emotional Responses to Risk Instrument (BERRI)

We introduce a brief instrument specifically validated for measuring positive and negative feelings about risks—the Berlin Emotional Responses to Risk Instrument (BERRI). Based on seven studies involving diverse adults from three countries (n = 2120), the BERRI was found to robustly estimate anticipatory affective reactions derived from subjective evaluations of positive (i.e., assured, hopeful, and relieved) and negative emotions (i.e., anxious, afraid, and worried). The brief BERRI outperformed a 14-item assessment, uniquely tracking costs/benefits associated with cancer screening among men and women (Studies 1 and 2). Predictive validity was further documented in paradigmatic risky choice studies wherein options varied over probabilities and severities across six contexts (health, social, financial, technological, ethical, and environmental; Study 3). Studies 4–6, conducted during the Ebola epidemic and COVID-19 pandemic, indicated BERRI responses were sensitive to subtle effects caused by emotion-related framing manipulations presented in different cultures and languages (the United States, Spain, and Poland). Study 7 indicated BERRI responses remained stable for 2 weeks. Although the BERRI can provide an estimate of overall affect, choices were generally better explained by the unique influences of positive and negative affect. Overall, results suggest the novel, brief instrument can be an efficient tool for high-stakes research on decision making and risk communication.