Flood Risk,Flood Mitigation,and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals’ adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program—the Community Rating System (CRS)—on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS‐creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two‐stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals’ risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS‐creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly.     

You Have Been Framed! How Antecedents of Information Need Mediate the Effects of Risk Communication Messages

This study investigates the processes that mediate the effects of framing flood risks on people's information needs. Insight into the effects of risk frames is important for developing balanced risk communication that explains both risks and benefits of living near water. The research was inspired by the risk information seeking and processing model and related models. In a web‐based survey, respondents (n = 1,457) were randomly assigned to one of three communication frames or a control frame (experimental conditions). Each frame identically explained flood risk and additionally refined the message by emphasizing climate change, the quality of flood risk management, or the amenities of living near water. We tested the extent to which risk perceptions, trust, and affective responses mediate the framing effects on information need. As expected, the frames on average resulted in higher information need than the control frame. Attempts to lower fear appeal by stressing safety or amenities instead of climate change were marginally successful, a phenomenon that is known as a “negativity bias.” Framing effects were mediated by negative attributes (risk perception and negative affect) but not by positive attributes (trust and positive affect). This finding calls for theoretical refinement. Practically, communication messages will be more effective when they stimulate risk perceptions and evoke negative affect. However, arousal of fear may have unwanted side effects. For instance, fear arousal could lead to lower levels of trust in risk management among citizens. Regular monitoring of citizens’ attitudes is important to prevent extreme levels of distrust or cynicism.     

Understanding Risk Information Seeking and Processing during an Infectious Disease Outbreak: The Case of Zika Virus

This study draws on the Planned Risk Information Seeking Model (PRISM) to assess Zika virus information seeking and systematic processing, paying particular attention to the relationship between perceived knowledge and knowledge insufficiency. Novel risks, such as Zika, provide an interesting context for examining whether information-seeking models, such as PRISM, are able to predict information seeking when available information is limited or scarce. A cross-sectional, online study of men and women of childbearing age (N = 494) residing in the state of Florida was conducted. Our results provide some support for the PRISM for predicting Zika information seeking intention, as well as systematic processing of information. We also found that individuals with high levels of perceived knowledge were more likely to report high level of knowledge insufficiency, illustrating that contextual factors may impact the fit of risk information seeking models.     

Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

Simulating Behavioral Influences on Community Flood Risk under Future Climate Scenarios

Flood risk is a function of both climate and human behavior, including individual and societal actions. For this reason, there is a need to incorporate both human and climatic components in models of flood risk. This study simulates behavioral influences on the evolution of community flood risk under different future climate scenarios using an agent-based model (ABM). The objective is to understand better the ways, sometimes unexpected, that human behavior, stochastic floods, and community interventions interact to influence the evolution of flood risk. One historic climate scenario and three future climate scenarios are simulated using a case study location in Fargo, North Dakota. Individual agents can mitigate flood risk via household mitigation or by moving, based on decision rules that consider risk perception and coping perception. The community can mitigate or disseminate information to reduce flood risk. Results show that agent behavior and community action have a significant impact on the evolution of flood risk under different climate scenarios. In all scenarios, individual and community action generally result in a decline in damages over time. In a lower flood risk scenario, the decline is primarily due to agent mitigation, while in a high flood risk scenario, community mitigation and agent relocation are primary drivers of the decline. Adaptive behaviors offset some of the increase in flood risk associated with climate change, and under an extreme climate scenario, our model indicates that many agents relocate.     

Behavioral pathways to private well risk mitigation: A structural equation modeling approach

Complex, multihazard risks such as private groundwater contamination necessitate multiannual risk reduction actions including seasonal, weather-based hazard evaluations. In the Republic of Ireland (ROI), high rural reliance on unregulated private wells renders behavior promotion a vital instrument toward safeguarding household health from waterborne infection. However, to date, pathways between behavioral predictors remain unknown while latent constructs such as extreme weather event (EWE) risk perception and self-efficacy (perceived behavioral competency) have yet to be sufficiently explored. Accordingly, a nationwide survey of 560 Irish private well owners was conducted, with structural equation modeling (SEM) employed to identify underlying relationships determining key supply management behaviors. The pathway analysis (SEM) approach was used to model three binary outcomes: information seeking, post-EWE action, and well testing behavior. Upon development of optimal models, perceived self-efficacy emerged as a significant direct and/or indirect driver of all three behavior types—demonstrating the greatest indirect effect (β = −0.057) on adoption of post-EWE actions and greatest direct (β = 0.222) and total effect (β = 0.245) on supply testing. Perceived self-efficacy inversely influenced EWE risk perception in all three models but positively influenced supply awareness (where present). Notably, the presence of a vulnerable (infant and/or elderly) household member negatively influenced adoption of post-EWE actions (β = −0.131, p = 0.016). Results suggest that residential and age-related factors constitute key demographic variables influencing risk mitigation and are strongly mediated by cognitive variables—particularly self-efficacy. Study findings may help contextualize predictors of private water supply management, providing a basis for future risk-based water interventions.     

The informed society: an analysis of the public's information-seeking behavior regarding coastal flood risks

Recent flood risk management puts an increasing emphasis on the public's risk perception and its preferences. It is now widely recognized that a better knowledge of the public's awareness and concern about risks is of vital importance to outline effective risk communication strategies. Models such as Risk Information Seeking and Processing address this evolution by considering the public's needs and its information-seeking behavior with regard to risk information. This study builds upon earlier information-seeking models and focuses on the empirical relationships between information-seeking behavior and the constructs of risk perception, perceived hazard knowledge, response efficacy, and information need in the context of coastal flood risks. Specific focus is given to the mediating role of information need in the model and to the differences in information-seeking behavior between permanent and temporary residents. By means of a structured on-line questionnaire, a cross-sectional survey was carried out in the city of Ostend, one of the most vulnerable places to coastal flooding on the Belgian coast. Three hundred thirteen respondents participated in the survey. Path analysis reveals that information need does not act as a mediator in contrast to risk perception and perceived knowledge. In addition, it is shown that risk perception and perceived hazard knowledge are higher for permanent than temporary residents, leading to increased information-seeking behavior among the former group. Implications for risk communication are discussed.     

An Empirical Study of the Toxic Capsule Crisis in China: Risk Perceptions and Behavioral Responses

The outbreak of the toxic capsule crisis during April 2012 aroused widespread public concern about the risk of chromium‐contaminated capsules and drug safety in China. In this article, we develop a conceptual model to investigate risk perceptions of the pharmaceutical drug capsules and behavioral responses to the toxic capsule crisis and the relationship between associated factors and these two variables. An online survey was conducted to test the model, including questions on the measures of perceived efficacy of the countermeasures, trust in the State FDA (Food and Drug Administration), trust in the pharmaceutical companies, trust in the pharmaceutical capsule producers, risk perception, concern, need for information, information seeking, and risk avoidance. In general, participants reported higher levels of risk perception, concern, and risk avoidance, and lower levels of trust in the three different stakeholders. The results from the structural equation modeling procedure suggest that perceived efficacy of the countermeasures is a predictor of each of the three trust variables; however, only trust in the State FDA has a dampening impact on risk perception. Both risk perception and information seeking are significant determinants of risk avoidance. Risk perception is also positively related to concern. Information seeking is positively related to both concern and need for information. The theoretical and policy implications are also discussed.     

Flash Flood Awareness in Southwest Virginia

Flash floods are one of the most dangerous weather-related natural disasters in the world. These events develop less than six hours after a rainfall event and create hazardous situations for people and extensive damage to property. It is critical for flash flood conditions to be warned of in a timely manner to minimize impacts. There is currently a knowledge gap between flood experts and the general public about the level of perceived risk that the latter has toward the powerful flood waters and how events should be warned of, which affects the communication capabilities and efficiency of the warning process. Prior research has addressed risk perception of natural disasters, but there is little emphasis on flash floods within flood-prone regions of the United States. This research utilizes an online survey of 300 respondents to determine the current state of flash flood awareness and preparation in southwest Virginia. Analysis of trends involved the use of chi-squared tests (chi2) and simple frequency and percentage calculations. Results reveal that a knowledge base of flash floods does exist, but is not advanced enough for proper awareness. Young adults have a lower understanding and are not as concerned about flood impacts. Increased exposure and perceived risk play a key role in shaping the way a person approaches flash floods. People do monitor flood events, but they are unaware of essential guidance and communication mechanisms. Finally, results suggest that the current method of warning about flash floods is not provided at an appropriate level of detail for effective communication.     

An Integrated Approach for Assessing the Impact of Large-Scale Future Floods on a Highway Transport System

The negative impact of climate change continues to escalate flood risk. Floods directly and indirectly damage highway systems and disturb the socioeconomic order. In this study, we propose an integrated approach to quantitatively assess how floods impact the functioning of a highway system. The approach has three parts: (1) a multi-agent simulation model to represent traffic, heterogeneous user demand, and route choice in a highway network; (2) a flood simulator using future runoff scenarios generated from five global climate models, three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and the CaMa-Flood model; and (3) an impact analyzer, which superimposes the simulated floods on the highway traffic simulation system, and quantifies the flood impact on a highway system based on car following model. This approach is illustrated with a case study of the Chinese highway network. The results show that (i) for different global climate models, the associated flood damage to a highway system is not linearly correlated with the forcing levels of RCPs, or with future years; (ii) floods in different years have variable impacts on regional connectivity; and (iii) extreme flood impacts can cause huge damages in highway networks; that is, in 2030, the estimated 84.5% of routes between provinces cannot be completed when the highway system is disturbed by a future major flood. These results have critical implications for transport sector policies and can be used to guide highway design and infrastructure protection. The approach can be extended to analyze other networks with spatial vulnerability, and it is an effective quantitative tool for reducing systemic disaster risk.     

Whose Risk? Why Did the U.S. Public Ignore Information About the Ebola Outbreak?

To test a possible boundary condition for the risk information seeking and processing (RISP) model, this study experimentally manipulates risk perception related to the 2014 Ebola outbreak in a nationally representative sample. Multiple‐group structural equation modeling results indicate that psychological distance was negatively related to systematic processing in the high‐risk condition. In the low‐risk condition, psychological distance was positively related to heuristic processing; negative attitude toward media coverage dampened people's need for information, which subsequently influenced information processing. Risk perception elicited more fear, which led to greater information insufficiency and more heuristic processing in the low‐risk condition. In contrast, sadness was consistently related to information processing in both conditions. Model fit statistics also show that the RISP model provides a better fit to data when risk perception is elevated. Further, this study contributes to our understanding of the role of discrete emotions in motivating information processing.     

Determinants of Seeking and Avoiding Risk‐Related Information in Times of Crisis

This research is designed to provide insight into the psychological (e.g., threat appraisal or coping appraisal) and other determinants (e.g., information quality judgments or demographics) of risk information seeking or avoidance in times of an acute risk, as part of the process of increasing public resilience through adherence to risk mitigating advice. Data were collected via telephone interviews. A specialized agency interviewed 1,000 Dutch citizens, randomly confronted with one of eight fictitious, but realistic, acute risk and emergency situations. Results indicate that information seeking in an acute situation is anticipated by a less elaborate set of predictors (age and risk perception) than information seeking in a nonacute situation (age and risk perception, as well as educational level and social norm). Although risk perception is a predictor for risk information seeking, its predictive value for acute‐risk‐related behavior, as one might have assumed based on theories such as protection motivation theory (PMT) or the extended parallel process model (EPPM), appears to be limited. Implications for risk communication are discussed.     

“Know What to Do If You Encounter a Flash Flood”: Mental Models Analysis for Improving Flash Flood Risk Communication and Public Decision Making

Understanding how people view flash flood risks can help improve risk communication, ultimately improving outcomes. This article analyzes data from 26 mental models interviews about flash floods with members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, to understand their perspectives on flash flood risks and mitigation. The analysis includes a comparison between public and professional perspectives by referencing a companion mental models study of Boulder‐area professionals. A mental models approach can help to diagnose what people already know about flash flood risks and responses, as well as any critical gaps in their knowledge that might be addressed through improved risk communication. A few public interviewees mentioned most of the key concepts discussed by professionals as important for flash flood warning decision making. However, most interviewees exhibited some incomplete understandings and misconceptions about aspects of flash flood development and exposure, effects, or mitigation that may lead to ineffective warning decisions when a flash flood threatens. These include important misunderstandings about the rapid evolution of flash floods, the speed of water in flash floods, the locations and times that pose the greatest flash flood risk in Boulder, the value of situational awareness and environmental cues, and the most appropriate responses when a flash flood threatens. The findings point to recommendations for ways to improve risk communication, over the long term and when an event threatens, to help people quickly recognize and understand threats, obtain needed information, and make informed decisions in complex, rapidly evolving extreme weather events such as flash floods.     

An Analysis of the Public Perception of Flood Risk on the Belgian Coast

In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards.     

Insurance,Public Assistance,and Household Flood Risk Reduction: A Comparative Study of Austria,England, and Romania

In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk‐reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk‐reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood‐prone areas. We show that insurance overall is positively associated with private risk‐reduction behavior. Warranties, premium discounts, and information provision with respect to risk reduction may be an explanation for this positive relationship in the case of structural measures. Public incentives for risk‐reduction measures by means of financial and in‐kind support, and particularly through the provision of information, are also associated with enhancing risk reduction. In this study, public compensation is not negatively associated with private risk‐reduction behavior. This does not disprove such a relationship, but the negative effect may be mitigated by factors related to respondents' capacity to implement measures or social norms that were not included in the analysis. The data suggest that large‐scale flood protection infrastructure creates a sense of security that is associated with a lower level of preparedness. Across the board there is ample room to improve both public and private policies to provide effective incentives for household‐level risk reduction.     

Residents’ information seeking behavior and protective action for earthquake hazards in The Portland Oregon Metropolitan Area

Though significant research exists on earthquake hazard adjustment adoption more generally, research focused on how information seeking influences planned or actual preparedness behavior is rare, limiting our understanding of how information seeking translates into preparedness. To address this gap, our study tests a proposed model of household seismic hazard adjustment using questionnaire responses of roughly 400 households living in the Portland, OR metropolitan region. The proposed model includes components of the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) with specific emphasis on past information seeking behavior, preparedness behavior, intentions to seek information, and intentions to take protective action. Other components include risk perception, earthquake experience, affective response, seismic risk zone residency, and demographics. Consistent with previous research, this study finds information seeking behavior to be the strongest influence on preparedness with other important influences being risk perception, affective response, and intentions to prepare. We find weak ties between risk zone residency and earthquake risk perception, though this may be because our sample has little experience with earthquakes and the majority live in the same earthquake risk zones. Importantly, longitudinal studies are needed to determine whether information seeking and intentions to prepare eventually result in household protective action.     

Flood Risk Assessment and Regionalization from Past and Future Perspectives at Basin Scale

Flooding is a major natural disaster that has brought tremendous losses to mankind throughout the ages. Even so, floods can be controlled by appropriate measures to minimize loss and damage. Flood risk assessment is an essential analytic step in preventing floods and reducing losses. Identifying previous flood risk and predicting future features are conducive to understanding the changing patterns and laws of flood risk. Taking the Dongjiang River basin as a study case, we assessed and regionalized flood risk in 1990, 2000, and 2010 from the past perspective and explored dynamic expansion during 1990–2010. Then, we projected land-use type, population, and gross domestic product in 2030 and 2050 and finally assessed and regionalized the risk from a future perspective. Results show that areas with very high risk accounted for 14.98–18.08% during 1990–2010; approximately 13.90% areas of the basin transformed from lower-level risk to higher-level risk whereas 9.07% fell from a higher level to a lower level during the period. For the future scenario, areas with very high and high risk in 2030 and 2050 are expected to account for 21.55% and 24.84%, respectively. Generally, our study can better identify changes in flood risk at a spatial scale and reveal the dynamic evolution rule, which provides a synthetical means of flood prevention and reduction, flood insurance, urban planning, and water resource management in the future under global climate change, especially for developing or high-speed urbanization regions.     

Prevention,Adaptation, and Threat Denial: Flooding Experiences in the Netherlands

Delta areas such as the Netherlands are more and more at risk of future flooding due to global climate change. Motivating residents living in flood-prone areas to effectively cope with local floods may lead to minimization of material losses and loss of life. The aim of this research was to investigate whether the extent to which residents had been exposed to flooding in the past was a key factor in motivating residents to effectively cope with future flooding. We also focused on the psychological variables that mediated this relationship. We conducted a survey (N = 516) among flood victims and nonvictims. We assessed subjective experiences due to past flooding, affective and cognitive appraisals, and coping responses. Results show that victims reported stronger emotions (negative and positive), and the receipt of more social support due to past flooding than did nonvictims. Moreover, victims worry more about future flooding, perceive themselves as more vulnerable to future flooding, perceive the consequences of future flooding as more severe, and have stronger intentions to take adaptive actions in the future than nonvictims. Structural equation modeling reveals that the latter effect was fully mediated by specific experiences and appraisals. Insights into factors and processes that have the potential to motivate residents to effectively cope with future floods may prove helpful in developing interventions to inform residents how to act effectively in case of an imminent flood.     

Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters,Public Officials,and Media Broadcasters in Boulder,Colorado

Timely warning communication and decision making are critical for reducing harm from flash flooding. To help understand and improve extreme weather risk communication and management, this study uses a mental models research approach to investigate the flash flood warning system and its risk decision context. Data were collected in the Boulder, Colorado area from mental models interviews with forecasters, public officials, and media broadcasters, who each make important interacting decisions in the warning system, and from a group modeling session with forecasters. Analysis of the data informed development of a decision‐focused model of the flash flood warning system that integrates the professionals’ perspectives. Comparative analysis of individual and group data with this model characterizes how these professionals conceptualize flash flood risks and associated uncertainty; create and disseminate flash flood warning information; and perceive how warning information is (and should be) used in their own and others’ decisions. The analysis indicates that warning system functioning would benefit from professionals developing a clearer, shared understanding of flash flood risks and the warning system, across their areas of expertise and job roles. Given the challenges in risk communication and decision making for complex, rapidly evolving hazards such as flash floods, another priority is development of improved warning content to help members of the public protect themselves when needed. Also important is professional communication with members of the public about allocation of responsibilities for managing flash flood risks, as well as improved system‐wide management of uncertainty in decisions.     

Adapting to Climate: A Case Study on Riverine Flood Risks in the Netherlands

Climate change may well lead to an increased risk of river floods in the Netherlands. However, the impacts of changes in water management on river floods are larger, either enhancing or reducing flood risks. Therefore, the abilities of water-management authorities to learn that climate and river flows are changing, and to recognize and act upon the implications, are of crucial importance. At the same time, water-management authorities respond to other trends, such as the democratization of decision making, which alter their ability to react to climate change. These complex interactions are illustrated with changes in river flood risk management for the Rhine and the Meuse in the Netherlands over the last 50 years. A scenario study is used to seek insight into the question of whether current water-management institutions and their likely successors are capable of dealing with plausible future flood risks. The scenarios show that new and major infrastructure is needed to keep flood risks at their current level. Such a structural solution to future flood risks is feasible, but requires considerable political will and institutional reform, both for planning and implementation. It is unlikely that reform will be fast enough or the will strong enough.