中国A股市场金融板块间风险相依关系及动态演化研究

将中国金融板块细分为国有大型银行、全国性股份制银行、城商行、证券、保险和信托等6个金融子板块，并以2015年中国股市异动和2019年新冠肺炎疫情为研究背景，分析在两个场景下的不同时期内，6个金融板块间的风险相依关系及其动态演化。通过计算各板块间波动指数的互信息，构建金融板块风险相依关系网络，并使用最大生成树刻画该相依关系的核心结构。研究发现，在市场处于相对平静时期，银行类金融板块与非银行类金融板块二者彼此之间的风险关联较弱，处于相对割裂状态；在市场走势波动较大时，银行类金融板块与非银行类金融板块之间的风险关联程度增强，且保险板块成为重要的中间节点；在两个场景下的异动期和疫情期，国有大型银行板块和城商行板块分别成为最大的风险节点。     

Organizational learning and knowledge in public service organizations: A systematic review of the literature

This paper is a systematic review of the literature on organizational learning and knowledge with relevance to public service organizations. Organizational learning and knowledge are important to public sector organizations, which share complex external challenges with private organizations, but have different drivers and goals for knowledge. The evidence shows that the concepts of organizational learning and knowledge are under-researched in relation to the public sector and, importantly, this raises wider questions about the extent to which context is taken into consideration in terms of learning and knowledge more generally across all sectors. A dynamic model of organizational learning within and across organizational boundaries is developed that depends on four sets of factors: features of the source organization; features of the recipient organization; the characteristics of the relationship between organizations; and the environmental context. The review concludes, first, that defining 'organization' is an important element of understanding organizational learning and knowledge. Second, public organizations constitute an important, distinctive context for the study of organizational learning and knowledge. Third, there continues to be an over-reliance on the private sector as the principal source of theoretical understanding and empirical research and this is conceptually limiting for the understanding of organizational learning and knowledge. Fourth, differences as well as similarities between organizational sectors require conceptualization and research that acknowledge sector-specific aims, values and structures. Finally, it is concluded that frameworks for explaining processes of organizational learning at different levels need to be sufficiently dynamic and complex to accommodate public organizations.     

The Role of Organizational Identities for Policy Integration Processes – Managing Sustainable Transport Development

Sustainable transport development is a complex, but necessary issue to manage if the use of fossil energy will decrease and transportation become more energy-efficient and environmental friendly. The contemporary public organization is organized into policy sectors and tiers of government, but the issue of sustainability is not confined to one single sector or level, it transcends all these traditional boundaries. To address this complexity policy integration has been suggested as a way for public organizations to open up the sectoral and vertical boundaries in policymaking. This paper discusses a case study of a political committee on the regional level in Sweden, which has been formed for integrated policymaking between sectors and local and regional authorities to manage sustainable transport development. The analysis of the case shows that vertical and sectoral integration are dependent processes and that the relation between different organizational identities either strengthens or undermine them. Vertical integration is not resulting in sectoral integration, rather it works prohibiting against sectoral integration.     

Organizations in the Public Sector in Hong Kong: Core Government, Quasi-Government and Private Bodies with Public Functions

Twenty-five years ago, the Hong Kong government was lauded as the model of a small, restricted government which was most suited to capitalist economic growth. Since that time, the government and the organizations which it has created have expanded to such an extent that there has been widespread concern that the public sector has grown too large. This article examines the reasons for the rapid growth in the size of the public sector, reflects on the organizational forms outside the traditional civil service that have been adopted, and analyzes the attempts that have been made to reduce the public bureaucracy by corporatizing and privatizing some of the services that it provides. Central to the argument presented is the question of whether an ideological commitment to small government or other functional and political factors have been the critical determinants of organizational change.     

A national risk analysis model (NRAM) for the assessment of COVID-19 epidemic

COVID-19 has caused a critical health concern and severe economic crisis worldwide. With multiple variants, the epidemic has triggered waves of mass transmission for nearly 3 years. In order to coordinate epidemic control and economic development, it is important to support decision-making on precautions or prevention measures based on the risk analysis for different countries. This study proposes a national risk analysis model (NRAM) combining Bayesian network (BN) with other methods. The model is built and applied through three steps. (1) The key factors affecting the epidemic spreading are identified to form the nodes of BN. Then, each node can be assigned state values after data collection and analysis. (2) The model (NRAM) will be built through the determination of the structure and parameters of the network based on some integrated methods. (3) The model will be applied to scenario deduction and sensitivity analysis to support decision-making in the context of COVID-19. Through the comparison with other models, NRAM shows better performance in the assessment of spreading risk at different countries. Moreover, the model reveals that the higher education level and stricter government measures can achieve better epidemic prevention and control effects. This study provides a new insight into the prevention and control of COVID-19 at the national level.     

Ethnic Minority Women in the Scottish Labour Market: Employers' Perceptions

This paper contributes to an under‐researched area through investigating employers' perceptions of ethnic minority women in the Scottish labour market. Adopting a social constructionist approach which acknowledges agency and structure and incorporates insights relating to organizational and social group culture, the study highlights the influence of individual (micro), organizational (meso) and contextual (macro) factors on ethnic minority women's participation in the labour market. The paper is based on qualitative research involving Scottish employers in the public and private sectors to examine perceptions and practices related to the employment of ethnic minority women. Institutional commitment to equality issues is questioned, although individual instances of engagement with key equality issues were sometimes evident. Proactive recruitment strategies and career support for ethnic minority women and men were not in evidence, and there was low awareness of the unique position of ethnic minority women in employment and society. We argue that these findings call for a multi‐level approach to advancing human resources management policy, practice and research within a wider socio‐political environment in which the responsibilities and duties of public sector organizations are clarified and more support is provided for organizational promotion of equal opportunities.     

Risk‐Based Input‐Output Analysis of Influenza Epidemic Consequences on Interdependent Workforce Sectors

Outbreaks of contagious diseases underscore the ever‐looming threat of new epidemics. Compared to other disasters that inflict physical damage to infrastructure systems, epidemics can have more devastating and prolonged impacts on the population. This article investigates the interdependent economic and productivity risks resulting from epidemic‐induced workforce absenteeism. In particular, we develop a dynamic input‐output model capable of generating sector‐disaggregated economic losses based on different magnitudes of workforce disruptions. An ex post analysis of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the national capital region (NCR) reveals the distribution of consequences across different economic sectors. Consequences are categorized into two metrics: (i) economic loss, which measures the magnitude of monetary losses incurred in each sector, and (ii) inoperability, which measures the normalized monetary losses incurred in each sector relative to the total economic output of that sector. For a simulated mild pandemic scenario in NCR, two distinct rankings are generated using the economic loss and inoperability metrics. Results indicate that the majority of the critical sectors ranked according to the economic loss metric comprise of sectors that contribute the most to the NCR's gross domestic product (e.g., federal government enterprises). In contrast, the majority of the critical sectors generated by the inoperability metric include sectors that are involved with epidemic management (e.g., hospitals). Hence, prioritizing sectors for recovery necessitates consideration of the balance between economic loss, inoperability, and other objectives. Although applied specifically to the NCR, the proposed methodology can be customized for other regions.     

PFI项目特点对项目风险事件和脆弱性的影响

不同特点的项目需要不同的管理手段与之相匹配,这样才能有效的提高项目成功率.PFI是一种公私合营的项目运营方式.它的基本目标在于充分利用私有部门的资源来为公共部门项目提供优良的服务.在目前的文献中,还缺少对于PFI项目特点与项目成功(失败)之间关系的研究.对于PFI项目的特点在项目风险过程中所起的作用不是很清楚.通过分析5个英国PFI项目,本文识别出PFI项目的一些特点:新奇性、长期性、高复杂性、紧联结性、高度战略性、多目标性和严格的法律法规限制.本文提出PFI项目的这些特点在一定程度上与项目组织活动和管理活动相互作用,一方面提高了项目风险事件发生的概率,另一方面能够增加项目脆弱性.这些机制说明拥有这些特点的PFI项目需求很高的项目管理能力.     

Performance Decline and Turnaround in Public Organizations: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis*

Public sector performance is currently a significant issue for management practice and policy, and especially the turnaround of those organizations delivering less than acceptable results. Theories of organizational failure and turnaround derive largely from the business sector and require adaptation to the public service. The performance of public organizations is more complex to measure, is related to institutional norms, and the idea of ‘failure’ is problematic. Empirical findings from a real‐time, longitudinal study of poorly performing English local authorities are used to develop an initial theory of performance failure and turnaround suited to public organizations. The paper argues that the typical performance of public organizations over time is cyclical. Where cognition and leadership capability are absent, organizations fail to self‐initiate turnaround. In this situation authoritative external intervention is necessary. The strategies applied are principally concerned with building a leadership capability that engages senior politicians and managers in order to overcome inertia and collective action problems. The theory is presented in the form of seven propositions that provide a basis for further research across the public sector.     

Improving the prospects for plan acceptance in public organizations

Public planning activities have acquired an increasingly systematic character in recent years, but plan formulation in the public sector is generally undertaken without due consideration of contextual factors that impinge on organizational validity. The work of management scientists contains several ideas which may prove useful in helping public planners to achieve a better fit between their recommendations and complex institutional realities. This work is reviewed here in the light of experience gained in a large public corporation.     

The Motherhood Wage Penalty and Its Determinants: A Public–Private Comparison

We investigate whether public and private sector employees bear a different wage penalty for having children. According to our estimates, the total motherhood wage penalty is much larger in the private than in the public sector. Nevertheless, in both sectors, we find no unexplained penalty once we control for potential determinants of the family pay gap, namely, a reduced labour supply of mothers, child‐related career interruptions, less access to management positions, and adjustments in working conditions. Finally, only child‐related career interruptions play a different role in explaining the motherhood wage penalty in each sector.     

公私合作制(PPP)项目的政府动态激励与监督机制

针对PPP基础设施项目建设中激励机制涉及的企业最优努力水平、政府监督及关系契约的预期收益三大因素加以分析;从动态的角度出发,在Holmstrom和Tirole激励模型的基础上,运用委托代理理论设计公私部门两阶段合作的激励合同,通过对不同阶段企业最优努力水平和政府监督奖惩因子的分析,得到影响企业最优努力水平和政府监督奖惩因子的相关因素以及企业两阶段决策中的动态影响;最后分别通过对政府外部监督与企业内在激励的分析,提出PPP项目建设中权变激励的激励机制和方向,从而为PPP项目建设中有效激励合同的设计提供一定的指导。     

Information Technology in Public Services: Towards the Contractual Organization?

The growing trend towards information technology (IT) outsourcing is analysed within the UK public sector. The paper first details the research findings on factors influencing the degree of success experienced in a range of IT outsourcing deals. These factors are then utilized as a framework for analysing and discussing two case histories—of selective and large-scale IT outsourcing—drawn from different parts of the public sector. Both demonstrate how distinctive public-sector contexts influence the direction and degree of outsourcing. At the same time they highlight a range of managerial and organizational issues raised by moves towards contractual, core competence forms of organizing. Selective outsourcing is revealed as effective provided key decisions and actions are taken. The large-scale outsourcing case raises a number of critical issues not just for how it can be conducted in public-sector contexts, but also about the efficacy of such arrangements in terms of cost savings, possible over-dependence on a few suppliers, and ability to respond flexibly to changing political requirements and legislation.     

Researching the Roles of Internal-change Agents in the Management of Organizational Change

There has been relatively little empirical research on the roles played by internal-change agents in the processes of developing and managing organizational and cultural change, or on their learning needs. There is a particular dearth of research on these issues in the public-service sector. This paper discusses an innovative methodology for studying the work of internal-change agents within local government. It describes an action-research project, the learning laboratory, which the authors piloted with a small group of senior managers involved in developing programmes of corporate organizational and/or cultural change in their own local authorities. Using a variety of action-research and action-learning techniques within the laboratory, together with before and after interviews with the participants and their line managers in their authorities, the project was able to explore the roles, perceptions and learning needs of these internal-change agents. The research makes a contribution to the study of internal-change agents in their organizational context, and draws attention in particular to the implications for change agents of the political context of public-service organizations. The value of the learning-laboratory methodology for assessing the learning needs of internal-change agents is also assessed.     

Is it the Brazilian Way? Extending the Comparison of Public and Private Organizations

This study investigates the differences in select organizational characteristics, managerial practices and work attitudes among 670 public and private sector workers in Brazil. The results indicate that in some aspects there is a moderation effect by type of organization. For example,when public employees score high on autonomy and task significance, perceive organizational practices as favourable, and keep membership in the same organization, they tend to be more satisfied than private sector workers. Overall, the findings highlight the need for more international comparisons to gain a better understanding of the public-private distinction.     

Risk Framework for an Organizational System With Major Components

Many large organizations accomplish their various functions through interactions across their major components. Components refers to functional entities within a large complex organization, such as business sectors, academic departments, or regional divisions. The dependency between the various components can cause risk to propagate through their overall system. This article presents a risk assessment framework that integrates risk across a diverse set of components to the overall organization functions. This project addresses three major challenges: aggregating risk, estimating component interdependencies including cycles of dependencies, and propagating risk across components. The framework aggregates risk assessments through a value function for severity that is evaluated at the expected outcome of accomplishing planned goals in terms of performance, schedule, and resources. The value function, which represents risk tolerance, scales between defined points corresponding to failure and success. Different risk assessment may be aggregated together. This article presents a novel approach to establishing relationships between the various components. This article develops and compares three network risk propagation models that characterize the overall organizational risk. The U.S. Air Force has applied this risk framework to evaluate success in hypothetical future wars. The analysts employing this risk framework have informed billions of dollars of strategic investment decisions.     

主要排放部门的减排责任分担研究:基于全局成本有效的分析

运用中国能源与环境政策分析模型(CEEPA),从经济全局成本有效的角度,分析了一定减排约束下中国主要排放部门宜分担的减排责任及其减排行为。研究发现,基于排放量进行减排责任部门分担是有助于整体成本的,但对煤炭和运输仓储部门宜做出调整;随着减排目标的增加,应增添运输仓储部门的减排配额比例,减少煤炭部门的减排配额比例;短期内不宜对各部门尤其是煤炭部门设置较高的减排目标。     

A Framework for Linking Cybersecurity Metrics to the Modeling of Macroeconomic Interdependencies

Hierarchical decision making is a multidimensional process involving management of multiple objectives (with associated metrics and tradeoffs in terms of costs, benefits, and risks), which span various levels of a large-scale system. The nation is a hierarchical system as it consists multiple classes of decisionmakers and stakeholders ranging from national policymakers to operators of specific critical infrastructure subsystems. Critical infrastructures (e.g., transportation, telecommunications, power, banking, etc.) are highly complex and interconnected. These interconnections take the form of flows of information, shared security, and physical flows of commodities, among others. In recent years, economic and infrastructure sectors have become increasingly dependent on networked information systems for efficient operations and timely delivery of products and services. In order to ensure the stability, sustainability, and operability of our critical economic and infrastructure sectors, it is imperative to understand their inherent physical and economic linkages, in addition to their cyber interdependencies. An interdependency model based on a transformation of the Leontief input-output (I-O) model can be used for modeling: (1) the steady-state economic effects triggered by a consumption shift in a given sector (or set of sectors); and (2) the resulting ripple effects to other sectors. The inoperability metric is calculated for each sector; this is achieved by converting the economic impact (typically in monetary units) into a percentage value relative to the size of the sector. Disruptive events such as terrorist attacks, natural disasters, and large-scale accidents have historically shown cascading effects on both consumption and production. Hence, a dynamic model extension is necessary to demonstrate the interplay between combined demand and supply effects. The result is a foundational framework for modeling cybersecurity scenarios for the oil and gas sector. A hypothetical case study examines a cyber attack that causes a 5-week shortfall in the crude oil supply in the Gulf Coast area.     

经济下行、信用风险反馈和政府隐性救助

基于资产负债表分析经济下行背景下企业部门、银行和政府间信用风险传导,利用或有权益资产负债表中显性负债和隐性担保项目构建信用风险反馈模型分析银行部门和政府间信用风险反馈,最后结合我国政府对银行救助特点,分析政府对银行的隐性救助方式与救助成本之间的关系.实证结果表明货币供应量和汇率波动对上市企业部门、银行和政府间风险传导影响显著,风险通过隐性担保在银行部门和政府之间反馈了恶化两部门的信用风险,并且监管宽容会增加政府救助成本.建议政府调控货币供应量、控制汇率波动性、降低监管宽容程度、建立动态系统性风险损失准备金.     

Why Do People from Southern Italy Seek Jobs in the Public Sector?

This paper analyses the choice open to a worker seeking a job in the public and private sectors of the labour market. The private sector is identified by a steeper wage profile and by lower job security than the public sector. The reservation wage for the two sectors is calculated in the first part of the paper. The results reveal that the reservation wage for the public sector is higher than that for the private sector. The effect of career prospects, job riskiness and labour demand on optimal time allocation between the search in the two sectors is then analysed. Finally, an empirical analysis is made in order to study Italian workers’ search strategies. It highlights relevant geographical differences which can be interpreted through the theoretical results obtained in the paper.