COVID-19 and business failures: The paradoxes of experience,scale, and scope for theory and practice

In light of growing scholarly works on business failure, across the social science domains, it is surprising that past studies have largely overlooked how extreme environmental shocks and ‘black swan’ events such as those caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and other global crises, can precipitate business failures. Drawing insights from the current literature on business failure and the unfolding event of COVID-19, we highlight the paradoxes posed by novel exogenous shocks (that is, shocks that transcend past experiences) and the implications for SMEs. The pandemic has accelerated the reconfiguration of the relationship between states and markets, increasing the divide between those with political connections and those without, and it may pose new legitimacy challenges for some players even as others seem less concerned by such matters, whilst experiential knowledge resources may be both an advantage and a burden.     

Three dimensions of COVID-19 risk perceptions and their socioeconomic correlates in the United States: A social media analysis

Social media analysis provides an alternate approach to monitoring and understanding risk perceptions regarding COVID-19 over time. Our current understandings of risk perceptions regarding COVID-19 do not disentangle the three dimensions of risk perceptions (perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and negative emotion) as the pandemic has evolved. Data are also limited regarding the impact of social determinants of health (SDOH) on COVID-19-related risk perceptions over time. To address these knowledge gaps, we extracted tweets regarding COVID-19-related risk perceptions and developed indicators for the three dimensions of risk perceptions based on over 502 million geotagged tweets posted by over 4.9 million Twitter users from January 2020 to December 2021 in the United States. We examined correlations between risk perception indicator scores and county-level SDOH. The three dimensions of risk perceptions demonstrate different trajectories. Perceived severity maintained a high level throughout the study period. Perceived susceptibility and negative emotion peaked on March 11, 2020 (COVID-19 declared global pandemic by WHO) and then declined and remained stable at lower levels until increasing once again with the Omicron period. Relative frequency of tweet posts on risk perceptions did not closely follow epidemic trends of COVID-19 (cases, deaths). Users from socioeconomically vulnerable counties showed lower attention to perceived severity and susceptibility of COVID-19 than those from wealthier counties. Examining trends in tweets regarding the multiple dimensions of risk perceptions throughout the COVID-19 pandemic can help policymakers frame in-time, tailored, and appropriate responses to prevent viral spread and encourage preventive behavior uptake in the United States.     

Ethical leadership supports safety voice by increasing risk perception and reducing ethical ambiguity: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

Misconduct by business and political leaders during the pandemic is feared to have impacted people's adherence to protective measures that would help to safeguard against the spread of COVID-19. Addressing this concern, this article theorizes and tests a model linking ethical leadership with workplace risk communication—a practice referred to as ‘safety voice’ in the research literature. Our study, conducted with 511 employees from UK companies, revealed that ethical leadership is positively associated with greater intention to engage in safety voice regarding COVID-19. We also find that this association is mediated by relations with the perceived health risk of COVID-19 and ambiguity about ethical decision making in the workplace. These findings therefore underscore the importance of good ethical conduct by leaders for ensuring that health and safety risks are well understood and communicated effectively by organizational members particularly during crises. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of our study and highlight further opportunities for future research to address the ethical dimensions of leadership, risk management, and organizational risk communication.     

Effects of air pollution and weather on the initial COVID-19 outbreaks in United States,Italy, Spain,and China: A comparative study

Contrasting effects have been identified in association of weather (temperature and humidity) and pollutant gases with COVID-19 infection, which could be derived from the influence of lockdowns and season change. The influence of pollutant gases and climate during the initial phases of the pandemic, before the closures and the change of season in the northern hemisphere, is unknown. Here, we used a spatial-temporal Bayesian zero-inflated-Poisson model to test for short-term associations of weather and pollutant gases with the relative risk of COVID-19 disease in China (first outbreak) and the countries with more cases during the initial pandemic (the United States, Spain and Italy), considering also the effects of season and lockdown. We found contrasting association between pollutant gases and COVID-19 risk in the United States, Italy, and Spain, while in China it was negatively associated (except for SO₂). COVID-19 risk was positively associated with specific humidity in all countries, while temperature presented a negative effect. Our findings showed that short-term associations of air pollutants with COVID-19 infection vary strongly between countries, while generalized effects of temperature (negative) and humidity (positive) with COVID-19 was found. Our results show novel information about the influence of pollution and weather on the initial outbreaks, which contribute to unravel the mechanisms during the beginning of the pandemic.     

Counterterrorism resource allocation during a pandemic: The effects of dynamic target valuations when facing a strategic terrorist

The outbreak of pandemics such as COVID-19 can result in cascading effects for global systemic risk. To combat an ongoing pandemic, governmental resources are largely allocated toward supporting the health of the public and economy. This shift in attention can lead to security vulnerabilities which are exploited by terrorists. In view of this, counterterrorism during a pandemic is of critical interest to the safety and well-being of the global society. Most notably, the population flows among potential targets are likely to change in conjunction with the trend of the health crisis, which leads to fluctuations in target valuations. In this situation, a new challenge for the defender is to optimally allocate his/her resources among targets that have changing valuations, where his/her intention is to minimize the expected losses from potential terrorist attacks. In order to deal with this challenge, in this paper, we first develop a defender–attacker game in sequential form, where the target valuations can change as a result of the pandemic. Then we analyze the effects of a pandemic on counterterrorism resource allocation from the perspective of dynamic target valuations. Finally, we provide some examples to display the theoretical results, and present a case study to illustrate the usability of our proposed model during a pandemic.     

Risk assessment of banknotes as a fomite of SARS-CoV-2 in cash payment transactions

The COVID 19 pandemic has triggered concerns and assumptions globally about transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus via cash transactions. This paper assesses the risk of contracting COVID-19 through exposure to SARS-CoV-2 via cash acting as a fomite in payment transactions. A quantitative microbial risk assessment was conducted for a scenario assuming an infectious person at the onset of symptoms, when virion concentrations in coughed droplets are at their highest. This person then contaminates a banknote by coughing on it and immediately hands it over to another person, who might then be infected by transferring the virions with a finger from the contaminated banknote to a facial mucous membrane. The scenario considered transfer efficiency of virions on the banknote to fingertips when droplets were still wet and after having dried up and subsequently being touched by finger printing or rubbing the object. Accounting for the likelihood of the scenario to occur by considering (1) a local prevalence of 100 COVID-19 cases/100,000 persons, (2) a maximum of about one-fifth of infected persons transmit high virus loads, and (3) the numbers of cash transactions/person/day, the risk of contracting COVID-19 via person-to-person cash transactions was estimated to be much lower than once per 39,000 days (107 years) for a single person. In the general populace, there will be a maximum of 2.6 expected cases/100,000 persons/day. The risk for a cashier at an average point of sale was estimated to be much less than once per 430 working days (21 months). The depicted scenario is a rare event, therefore, for a single person, the risk of contracting COVID-19 via person-to-person cash transactions is very low. At a point of sale, the risk to the cashier proportionally increases but it is still low.     

Disrupting Management Research? Critical Reflections on British Journal of Management COVID-19 Research and an Agenda for the Future

Research interest in extreme contexts was growing before the COVID-19 pandemic and has intensified since. The climate crisis, significant geo-political conflict, political polarization and upheaval, and economic/financial crises that present existential challenges to organizations have all contributed to rising interest in extreme-context research. COVID-19 itself has generated an enormous body of research across all sub-fields of management. However, the substantive, methodological and conceptual implications of this large volume of research remain unclear. In this introduction to the British Journal of Management COVID-19 Online Virtual Issue, we describe and analyse COVID-19 research so far published in the British Journal of Management. The Journal was proactive in seeing the profound implications of COVID-19 for management research and practice, issuing an early call for contributions, and publishing several exploratory commentaries as early as July 2020. In this paper, we situate COVID-19 research within the broader extreme-context research, analyse contributions made so far, and build upon an extended taxonomy of extreme contexts to suggest ways for future research to generate further impactful insights.     

Redefining,relooking, redesigning,and reincorporating HRD in the post Covid 19 context and thereafter

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought several challenges to the way organizations were functioning globally. Considering the case of India, this is a time of complete work transformation for the entire workforce across all sectors of work. As the work from home scenario has never been a part of the functioning of Indian organizations, whether public or private, there are serious concerns of managing the same particularly in time of this crisis. Thus, the present article provides an insight into the response of Indian organizations in combating the repercussions that the COVID-19 pandemic has drawn with it as well as the challenges being faced. In line with the same, we propose the adoption of a 4-R Crisis-Normalcy Model of HRD that can be used by the HRD professionals to redefine, relook, redesign, and reincorporate the HRD interventions in the COVID-19 context. This model not only provides the basis for managing the COVID-19 pandemic aligned to organizational functioning but is a way forward to dealing with any type of crisis situation that may affect an organization.     

Responding to discontinuities in product-based service supply chains in the COVID-19 pandemic: Towards transilience

PurposeIn this study, we identify and characterise how organisations have responded, in ways ranging from restoration to radical change, to discontinuities in their product-based service (PBS) supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachFollowing a theoretical approach that integrates transilience and panarchy theory as a response strategy in PBS supply chains, our qualitative study involved collecting data through 19 semi-structured interviews at six manufacturing firms during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., March to August 2020) and triangulating the findings with the secondary data and that from an industry workshop. Following an inductive approach, we performed thematic data analysis in Nvivo software package.FindingsThe findings suggest characterising discontinuities in PBS supply chains as unmanageable external supply-side, demand-side or interactional discontinuities or other manageable deliberate or forced organisational discontinuities. Following that characterisation, we developed a conceptual framework combing both resilience and transformation into new service opportunities.Research limitations/implicationsWe gained insights into the first-response abilities and ways of coping among manufacturing firms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Though our findings capture a contemporary, eye-of-the-storm perspective on future directions, a longitudinal study on the pandemic could further validate and extend the modes of response that complement mitigation with the ability to accelerate change or innovation of internal process or external service offerings.Originality/valueCombining current literature with lessons learned from the firms' immediate responses, this paper's overview and characterisation of discontinuities following the COVID-19 outbreak in PBS supply chains demonstrate how manufacturing firms can foster transilience. As such, it integrates product-based supply chain discontinuities into the domain of service-based supply chains.     

Is a disease leader attractive? Six tests of whether the COVID-19 pandemic affected follower preferences for attractiveness,health and other traits in political and non-political leaders

Attractive political candidates receive more votes on Election Day compared to their less attractive competitors. One well-cited theoretical account for this attractiveness effect (White et al., 2013) holds that it reflects an adaptive psychological response to disease threats. Voters are predicted to upregulate preferences for attractiveness because it constitutes a cue to health. The global COVID-19 pandemic constitutes an ecologically relevant and realistic setting for further testing this prediction. Here, we report the results from six tests of the prediction based on two large and nationally representative surveys conducted in Denmark (n = 3297) at the outbreak of the pandemic and one year later. Utilizing experimental techniques, validated individual difference measures of perceived disease threat and geographic data on COVID-19 severity, we do not find that disease threats like the COVID-19 pandemic upregulate preferences for attractive and healthy political or non-political leaders. Instead, respondents display heightened preferences for health in socially proximate relations (i.e. colleagues). Moreover, individuals who react aversively to situations involving risks of pathogen transmission (scoring high in Germ Aversion) report higher importance of a wide range of leadership traits, rather than for health and attractiveness in particular. Results are discussed in relation to evolutionary accounts of leadership and followership.     

Governmental anti-pandemic policies,vaccination, population mobility,Twitter narratives,and the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the European Union countries

We provide large-scale empirical evidence on the effects of multiple governmental regulatory and health policies, vaccination, population mobility, and COVID-19-related Twitter narratives on the spread of a new coronavirus infection. Using multiple-level fixed effects panel data model with weekly data for 27 European Union countries in the period of March 2020–June 2021, we show that governmental response policies were effective both in reducing the number of COVID-19 infection cases and deaths from it, particularly, in the countries with higher level of rule of law. Vaccination expectedly helped to decrease the number of virus cases. Reductions in population mobility in public places and workplaces were also powerful in fighting the pandemic. Next, we identify four core pandemic-related Twitter narratives: governmental response policies, people's sad feelings during the pandemic, vaccination, and pandemic-related international politics. We find that sad feelings’ narrative helped to combat the virus spread in EU countries. Our findings also reveal that while in countries with high rule of law international politics’ narrative helped to reduce the virus spread, in countries with low rule of law the effect was strictly the opposite. The latter finding suggests that trust in politicians played an important role in confronting the pandemic.     

The Impact of Social Media and Digital Platforms Experience on SME International Orientation: The Moderating Role of COVID-19 Pandemic

Drawing on network learning theory, it investigates the effect of small and medium-sized enterprises' (SMEs) experience of using foreign and domestic social network services (SNS) and foreign and domestic platforms (such as B2B digital platforms) on their international orientation. We further examine the moderating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the relationship between digital experience and international orientation. Empirical results from a sample of 373 observations from 250 Chinese SMEs show that their use of foreign SNS and B2B digital platforms has a stronger positive impact on their international orientation than their use of domestic SNS and B2B digital platforms. Even with the COVID-19 pandemic, SMEs' use of foreign SNS still has a stronger positive impact on their international orientation than their use of domestic SNS. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic mitigates the positive impact of their use of both foreign and domestic platforms on their international orientation. This study presents some interesting theoretical and practical implications for SMEs' digitalization and internationalization.     

可及性视角下医疗组织分布特征及其对疫情防控的影响研究

基于可及性理论,从医疗服务资源的可获得性和可达性两个角度量化各地级市疫情防控定点医疗组织机构的空间分布特征以及空间组合模式,并探讨其对疫情防控效果的影响。研究结果显示,在控制了城市基本特征、人员流动程度、基础医疗资源状况和省级固定效应之后,按人口聚集分布定点医院显著负向影响各城市累计确诊病例数,而按人口聚集分布发热门诊显著增加确诊病例数。相比于其他空间组合模式,定点医院按人口聚集分布,发热门诊按空间平均分布的组合方式对于疫情防控的效果最好。随着疫情严重程度的上升,按人口聚集分布定点医院对于疫情的抑制作用以及按人口聚集分布发热门诊对疫情防控的负面影响被进一步强化。     

Perceived risk,emotions, and stress in response to COVID-19: The interplay of media use and partisanship

Relationships between risk perceptions, emotions, and stress are well-documented, as are interconnections between stress, emotion, and media use. During the early COVID-19 pandemic, the public responded psychologically to the threat posed by the pandemic, and frequently utilized media for information and entertainment. However, we lack a comprehensive picture of how perceived risk, emotion, stress, and media affected each other longitudinally during this time. Further, although response to the pandemic was highly politicized, research has yet to address how partisan affiliation moderated relationships between risk, emotion, stress, and media use over time. This three-wave (N = 1021) panel study assessed the interplay of risk, emotion, stress, and media use for Americans with different political affiliations between March and May of 2020. Findings indicate that perceived risk, emotion, and stress at Time 1 predicted media use at Time 2, with predictors varying by type of media. Use of entertainment media and social/mobile media predicted later stress (Time 3), but news consumption did not. Later risk perceptions (Time 3) were not influenced by media use at Time 2. The predictors and consequences of different types of media use were notably different for Republicans and Democrats. In particular, risk perceptions predicted greater news use among Democrats but greater entertainment media use among Republicans. Moreover, social/mobile media use resulted in perceiving the risks of COVID-19 as less serious for Republicans while increasing stress over time for Democrats.     

Avoiding Covid-19 risk information in the United States: The role of attitudes,norms, affect,social dominance orientations,and perceived trustworthiness of scientists

This study seeks guidance from the planned risk information avoidance model to explore drivers of risk information avoidance in the context of COVID-19. Data were collected early during the pandemic. Among our most notable results is that participants who are more oriented toward social dominance and are more skeptical of scientists’ credibility have (1) more supportive attitudes toward risk information avoidance and (2) feel social pressure to avoid risk information. The findings of this study highlight how the role of skepticism in science and intergroup ideologies, such as social dominance, can have important implications for how people learn about health-related information, even in times of heightened crisis.     

Hand-Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network

The risk for a global transmission of flu-type viruses is strengthened by the physical contact between humans and accelerated through individual mobility patterns. The Air Transportation System plays a critical role in such transmissions because it is responsible for fast and long-range human travel, while its building components—the airports—are crowded, confined areas with usually poor hygiene. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) consider hand hygiene as the most efficient and cost-effective way to limit disease propagation. Results from clinical studies reveal the effect of hand washing on individual transmissibility of infectious diseases. However, its potential as a mitigation strategy against the global risk for a pandemic has not been fully explored. Here, we use epidemiological modeling and data-driven simulations to elucidate the role of individual engagement with hand hygiene inside airports in conjunction with human travel on the global spread of epidemics. We find that, by increasing travelers engagement with hand hygiene at all airports, a potential pandemic can be inhibited by 24% to 69%. In addition, we identify 10 airports at the core of a cost-optimal deployment of the hand-washing mitigation strategy. Increasing hand-washing rate at only those 10 influential locations, the risk of a pandemic could potentially drop by up to 37%. Our results provide evidence for the effectiveness of hand hygiene in airports on the global spread of infections that could shape the way public-health policy is implemented with respect to the overall objective of mitigating potential population health crises.     

Strategic flexibility analysis of HRD research and practice post COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT

While governments, intergovernmental organizations, non-profits, corporations are all aware that disruptions through pandemics and other natural bio-disasters like the COVID-19 pandemic can happen, barely are we proactive about them. Instead, we are always reactive. In a virtual Town Hall meeting of the Academy of Human Resource Development (AHRD) held on 9 April 2020, on the theme ‘How is the pandemic a game-changer for HRD?,’ the President of AHRD, Laura Bierema, challenged HRD scholars to determine the possible futures of HRD scholarship post-COVID-19 Pandemic. This article proposes the use of the Strategic Flexibility Framework (SFF) to determine the possible futures of HRD post-COVID-19 pandemic. I first discuss the SFF as a scenario planning and analysis tool. I then developed four scenarios of possible futures for HRD Research and Practice post-COVID-19 pandemic. These scenarios include the ‘Meaning of work,’ ‘Leadership,’ ‘Contactless Commerce & Education,’ and ‘Volunteerism.’ I conclude by discussing the important opportunities that can serve as intervention points for post-COVID-19 HRD theory, research, and practice.     

Risk of Extreme Events Under Nonstationary Conditions

The concept of the return period is widely used in the analysis of the risk of extreme events and in engineering design. For example, a levee can be designed to protect against the 100-year flood, the flood which on average occurs once in 100 years. Use of the return period typically assumes that the probability of occurrence of an extreme event in the current or any future year is the same. However, there is evidence that potential climate change may affect the probabilities of some extreme events such as floods and droughts. In turn, this would affect the level of protection provided by the current infrastructure. For an engineering project, the risk of an extreme event in a future year could greatly exceed the average annual risk over the design life of the project. An equivalent definition of the return period under stationary conditions is the expected waiting time before failure. This paper examines how this definition can be adapted to nonstationary conditions. Designers of flood control projects should be aware that alternative definitions of the return period imply different risk under nonstationary conditions. The statistics of extremes and extreme value distributions are useful to examine extreme event risk. This paper uses a Gumbel Type I distribution to model the probability of failure under nonstationary conditions. The probability of an extreme event under nonstationary conditions depends on the rate of change of the parameters of the underlying distribution.