低碳技术组合应用下纵向合作减排的随机微分对策模型

在低碳电力调度准则下,基于考虑减排技术及其协同效应对低碳负荷需求的影响与电网公司购电的有限理性学习过程,建立了发电商采用3种低碳技术组合应用时的纵向合作减排的随机微分对策模型。运用汉密尔顿-雅可比-贝尔曼方程分别求得了Stackelberg博弈和合作博弈下均衡的减排技术投入、稳定的购电电量期望与方差以及Stackelberg博弈下最优的减排支付比例。考察了发电商减排技术的对称性及其应用数量对反馈均衡结果的影响,并对此两种博弈结构进行了比较分析。运用基于双向加权Rubinstein-Stahl讨价还价模型的利润共享契约使得决策系统达到协调,并将模型拓展到多种减排技术投入下的合作减排模型。研究发现:在一定条件和范围内,减排投入提高电网公司购电电量,同时发电商为此所带来的风险增大;合作博弈更适于优化电力市场电源结构,顺应低碳电力调度政策的导向;最优的减排技术应用、稳定的购电电量期望与方差以及系统均衡利润都与发电商选择的低碳技术投资效率、技术之间的协同作用以及数量正相关。     

Informed Public Preferences for Electricity Portfolios with CCS and Other Low‐Carbon Technologies

Public perceptions of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and other low‐carbon electricity‐generating technologies may affect the feasibility of their widespread deployment. We asked a diverse sample of 60 participants recruited from community groups in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to rank 10 technologies (e.g., coal with CCS, natural gas, nuclear, various renewables, and energy efficiency), and seven realistic low‐carbon portfolios composed of these technologies, after receiving comprehensive and carefully balanced materials that explained the costs and benefits of each technology. Rankings were obtained in small group settings as well as individually before and after the group discussions. The ranking exercise asked participants to assume that the U.S. Congress had mandated a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from power plants to be built in the future. Overall, rankings suggest that participants favored energy efficiency, followed by nuclear power, integrated gasification combined‐cycle coal with CCS and wind. The most preferred portfolio also included these technologies. We find that these informed members of the general public preferred diverse portfolios that contained CCS and nuclear over alternatives once they fully understood the benefits, cost, and limitations of each. The materials and approach developed for this study may also have value in educating members of the general public about the challenges of achieving a low‐carbon energy future.     

Thinking about a more sustainable business — an Indicators approach

TXU Europe is one of the leading integrated energy companies in the UK and a fast-growing player in the deregulated energy markets of continental Europe. Its services include electricity generation, energy trading, electricity distribution, and electricity and natural gas marketing. Formerly known as Eastern Group plc, TXU Europe is the European arm of global energy company TXU, which acquired Eastern in 1998 for £4.45 billion. At TXU Europe, we believe that sustainable development is about achieving economic growth — in the form of better living standards for all — while protecting and, where possible, enhancing the environment. This approach does not exclude business development and profit, but rather guides it along a route of environmental protection and social responsibility.     

多市场协同下的可再生能源电力竞价策略研究

为了实现电力行业低碳转型，我国正逐步建立和完善全国碳配额与交易市场和绿色电力证书市场。如何设计和协调市场政策目标以推动可再生能源电力平价上网是我国电力系统绿色低碳化转型的关键。本文构建了多市场协同下的电力企业竞价模型，研究碳市场、绿证市场与电力市场的价格形成和市场之间的价格传导路径，分析多市场协同作用下电力企业竞价策略的差异。研究结果表明：多市场协同对减少碳排放和促进可再生能源发展有显著效果，收紧碳配额供应和提高绿证配额的市场协同机制能够为可再生能源发电企业创造新的利润增长点，增加传统能源发电成本，缩小可再生能源电力和传统能源电力的价格差异。本文揭示了多个市场之间内在的协同机理，有助于政策制定者充分考虑到市场间的协同关系，从而制定更加高效的减排和可再生能源发展政策。     

电力消耗、经济增长与CO2排放量的实证分析——基于中国面板数据

本文运用计量经济学方法,如协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数等,深入研究了中国在1990-2013期间电力消耗、经济增长与二氧化碳排放量之间的关系。研究结果表明,电力消耗、经济增长与二氧化碳排放量之间存在协整关系,即长期均衡关系;经济增长与电力消耗之间存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,但不存在电力消耗与二氧化碳排放量,经济增长与二氧化碳排放量之间的格兰杰因果关系。与此同时,VAR模型估计结果显示,滞后一期的电力消耗对当期经济增长和二氧化碳排放量产生正向的作用,滞后一期的电力消耗促进当期的电力消耗,同时也促进当期经济增长和CO₂排放量增加;经济增长的滞后期对当期电力消耗和二氧化碳排放量产生负向的作用,而二氧化碳排放量的滞后期对当期经济增长没有显著影响。基于此,实证分析结果表明经济增长在短期内会造成二氧化碳排放量的增加,但正如环境库兹涅茨曲线描述的结论一样,从长期来看,经济增长促进了技术的进步和能源效率的提高,进而导致二氧化碳排放量的减少。该发现对于中国发展低碳经济和电力部门能源政策的制定都将有着重要现实意义。     

The Value to the Customer of RFID in Service Applications*

This article examines how customer value may be affected by deploying radio frequency identification (RFID) technologies within service environments. Business articles promote operational cost savings and improved inventory management as key benefits of deploying RFID. In response, service firms are using RFID to reengineer service transactions and customer touchpoints. Customers may view these RFID applications to offer both benefits and drawbacks. This article demonstrates that individuals will recognize far more value from RFID service applications than just cost savings and inventory availability. The article analyzes qualitative survey responses on the value gained from RFID to identify a broad list of value objectives—benefits and drawbacks—associated with RFID service applications. The article contributes to academic literature by providing salient value dimensions for return on investment models of service RFID applications and for future empirical analyses of means‐ends and value‐profit chain models. Managers can use the list of dimensions to develop rich business cases for evaluating the benefits and costs from enhancing service operations with RFID. The identified drawbacks also provide managers with a resource for understanding potential risks of RFID applications.     

Foreign aid and national priorities

Foreign aid evolved from a combination of postwar trends—reconstruction efforts, U.S. foreign policy objectives, post-colonial relations, and humanitarianism. At no prior time has foreign aid played a role in relations among nations; and there are signs—relative stagnation of aid flows, increased doubts about the aid relationship—that aid in its present form may not be a permanent feature of the international scene. One of the important questions to be addressed as we speculate about the prospects for the Second Development Decade and beyond, is whether this is a process to be resisted or an evolution to be aided.     

碳中和目标下的能源经济转型路径与政策研究

"2030年前碳达峰"和"2060年前碳中和"目标要求我国能源经济系统进行深刻的转型。本文利用中国-全球能源模型(C-GEM)等模型工具,研究了碳中和愿景下我国能源经济转型的路径,定量评价了主要减排措施在不同时期的减排贡献度和所需的政策干预力度,对能源经济转型路径的关键特征指标进行了不确定性分析。研究表明,要实现"2060年前碳中和"目标,我国应进一步提高能源利用效率,2060年单位GDP能源消费相比当前下降75%以上;持续推进以新能源为主体的能源结构优化,2060年非化石能源在一次能源消费中的比重提高到80%以上;大力推进电气化和电力系统深度脱碳,2060年电力在终端能源消费中的比重提高至70%以上,非化石电力在电力供应中比重提升至90%以上,电力系统在2045~2050年间实现净零碳排放;碳定价机制将在碳中和转型中发挥关键作用,为低碳、零碳和负碳技术创新和产业转型升级提供有效的激励。研究还表明,碳中和将有助于我国经济高质量发展,2030年和2050年我国人均GDP将超过2万美元和3万美元。     

碳交易和低碳偏好下供应链低碳技术选择研究

在碳交易和消费者具有低碳偏好的环境下,通过分析体现成本和减排效率的低碳技术特征,建立供应链低碳技术减排投入与合作的动态优化模型,采用微分博弈方法,求解产品碳排放和供应链利润的长期轨迹, 并且推导出实现双赢的低碳技术特征条件。鉴于现实中可选择的技术特征有限并考虑到零售商减排意愿合作水平,推导出促进零售商低碳合作的市场条件,并证明了将生产和使用两个环节排放同时纳入碳交易有利于激励供应商减排。     

A Perspective on Nuclear Waste

The management of spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste has the deserved reputation as one of the most intractable policy issues facing the United States and other nations using nuclear reactors for electric power generation. This paper presents the author's perspective on this complex issue, based on a decade of service with the Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board and Board on Radioactive Waste Management of the National Research Council.     

An Expert Elicitation of the Proliferation Resistance of Using Small Modular Reactors (SMR) for the Expansion of Civilian Nuclear Systems

To facilitate the use of nuclear energy globally, small modular reactors (SMRs) may represent a viable alternative or complement to large reactor designs. One potential benefit is that SMRs could allow for more proliferation resistant designs, manufacturing arrangements, and fuel‐cycle practices at widespread deployment. However, there is limited work evaluating the proliferation resistance of SMRs, and existing proliferation assessment approaches are not well suited for these novel arrangements. Here, we conduct an expert elicitation of the relative proliferation resistance of scenarios for future nuclear energy deployment driven by Generation III+ light‐water reactors, fast reactors, or SMRs. Specifically, we construct the scenarios to investigate relevant technical and institutional features that are postulated to enhance the proliferation resistance of SMRs. The experts do not consistently judge the scenario with SMRs to have greater overall proliferation resistance than scenarios that rely on conventional nuclear energy generation options. Further, the experts disagreed on whether incorporating a long‐lifetime sealed core into an SMR design would strengthen or weaken proliferation resistance. However, regardless of the type of reactor, the experts judged that proliferation resistance would be enhanced by improving international safeguards and operating several multinational fuel‐cycle facilities rather than supporting many more national facilities.     

中国软件企业过程改进的“制度化”:以东软集团实施CMMI为例

通过对东软集团股份有限公司实施CMMI的实地调查和案例研究,探讨该公司实施CMMI提高软件过程能力的背景和绩效,揭示中国软件企业过程改进的"制度化"体系。研究结果表明,该公司引进CMMI模式改进软件过程,使软件生产已经成为"制度化的过程"以及一个习惯性遵循和使用规则的过程。CMMI为中国软件企业走向规范化、规模化、成熟化起到了重大的促进和导向作用。     

Toward a Theory of the Informal Economy

Economic activity taking place within the informal sector—traditionally defined as activity unregulated by law but governed by custom or personal ties—represents an emerging frontier for management researchers with interests from alleviating poverty at the bottom of the economic pyramid to entrepreneurship, innovation, or organizational functioning in advanced knowledge economies. A substantial portion of the world's economic activity takes place informally, with many developing nations having more than one half of their output derived from the informal sector and the advanced economies witnessing an increase in informal economic activity. I review the literature in economics, sociology, political science and public policy, and management and show that defining the informal economy proves problematic; current definitions of the informal economy fail to converge around a unitary construct. I then use these disparities in the literature to generate a model of the informal economy clear enough to foster a distinct research agenda.     

The cross-border hostile bid fight between Scania in Sweden and the two German companies MAN and Volkswagen: institutional change and the mandatory bid rule

International hostile takeovers provide a unique context for studying how corporate governance mechanisms migrate across countries. This paper is prompted by a case study of the cross-border takeover fight between the target companies Scania (Sweden) and MAN (Germany) and the involvement of the owners of Volkswagen, Porsche (both Germany) and Investor (Sweden), 1999–2014. It reveals how incumbent owners in Germany and Sweden—two countries with a history of corporate control through blockholdings, corporatist-governance, state control (Germany) and multiple voting shares (Sweden)—manage to take advantage of the minority shareholders through arbitraging the differences in implementation of a new governance device across borders. The study focuses in particular on the mandatory bid rule (MBR) that forces a shareholder who passes a certain threshold of ownership to bid for the rest of the shares. The study reveals over twenty incidents of breaches of the idea of the MBR, to the detriment of minority shareholders. Building on institutional theory and sociology, the study provides useful insight into how incumbent actors may use bargaining power to capture a new regulation and circumvent it. Furthermore, the case illustrates the importance of legitimacy in the efforts to converge corporate governance systems. Thirdly, it adds to the critique of the mandatory bid rule in countries with a governance system supporting blockholders. Overall, the study raises a number of important issues regarding how national politics shape corporate governance and responds to new actors and coalitions of actors entering the scene. A convergence of takeover regulation not compatible with the legal framework might result in a less efficient than anticipated outcome of the market for corporate control. These results are consistent with the institutional theory perspective that key actors may have a vested interest in resisting change.     

Managing Technology Selection and Development Risk in Competitive Environments

Managing development decisions for new products based on dynamically evolving technologies is a complex task, especially in highly competitive industries. Product managers often have to choose between introducing an incrementally better, safe new product early and a superior, yet highly risky, product later. Recommendations for managing such performance vs. time‐to‐market trade‐offs often ignore competitive reactions to development decisions. In this paper, we study how a firm could incorporate the presence of a strategic competitor in making technology selection and investment decisions regarding new products. We consider a model in which an innovating firm and its rival can introduce a new product immediately or pursue a more advanced product for later launch. Further, the firm can reduce the uncertainty surrounding product development by dedicating more resources; the effectiveness of this investment depends on the firm's innovative capacity. Our model generates two sets of insights. First, in highly competitive industries, firms can adopt different technologies and effectively use introduction timing to mitigate the effects of price competition. More importantly, the firm could strategically invest in the advanced product to influence its rival's technology choice. We characterize equilibrium development and investment decisions of the firms, and derive innovative capacity hurdles that govern a firm's choice between the risky and safe alternatives. The effects of development flexibility—where firms might have the option to revert to the safe product if the advanced product fails—are also considered.     

Providing Limited Local Electric Service During a Major Grid Outage: A First Assessment Based on Customer Willingness to Pay

While they are rare, widespread blackouts of the bulk power system can result in large costs to individuals and society. If local distribution circuits remain intact, it is possible to use new technologies including smart meters, intelligent switches that can change the topology of distribution circuits, and distributed generation owned by customers and the power company, to provide limited local electric power service. Many utilities are already making investments that would make this possible. We use customers' measured willingness to pay to explore when the incremental investments needed to implement these capabilities would be justified. Under many circumstances, upgrades in advanced distribution systems could be justified for a customer charge of less than a dollar a month (plus the cost of electricity used during outages), and would be less expensive and safer than the proliferation of small portable backup generators. We also discuss issues of social equity, extreme events, and various sources of underlying uncertainty.     

基于社会福利的可再生能源R&D激励政策评价

可再生能源发电新技术的R&D投资策略通常对企业价值和消费者剩余起到作用相反的不同影响,从而对基于社会福利的可再生能源电力R&D激励政策的科学制定带来挑战。针对旨在通过研发可再生能源发电新技术从而垄断清洁能源新兴市场的两非对称企业,结合投资时机选择期权博弈和社会福利模型,通过数值模拟以分析社会福利与影响其变化的补贴政策及其它诸多因素间的动态变化特征并提出相应的可再生能源电力R&D激励政策建议。结果表明:若以社会福利最大化为目标,在发电新技术R&D补贴和上网电价补贴政策的各组合应用中,企业间的R&D能力差距越大、可再生能源发电新技术的初始价值越大以及R&D成本越高,政府越应该鼓励可再生能源企业进行合作研发,反之则应鼓励竞争;随着电价补贴的提高,企业间的R&D竞争应受到鼓励;一定范围内,R&D补贴和电价补贴均能提高社会福利。论文创新性地揭示出可再生能源电力R&D投资的最优投资时机选择、电价补贴政策组合与社会福利三者间应有的内在联动关系,为政府对可再生能源电力的有效激励和管理提供富有价值的决策参考。     

基于碳限额与交易机制的上下游企业可再生能源投资策略研究

本文在碳限额与交易机制的背景下,构建了由发电商与售电商组成的二级电力供应链,考虑了发电商投资可再生能源与售电商投资可再生能源两种不同情形。在此基础上,研究了电价与可再生能源投资决策问题。通过比较不同情形下的均衡结果,主要的研究结果如下：(1)相对于发电商投资可再生能源的情形而言,售电商投资可再生能源的情形中将有更多的投资量。(2)在发电商投资可再生能源的情形中,售电商的利润低于发电商的利润;而在售电商投资可再生能源的情形中,售电商的利润高于发电商的利润。(3)可再生能源投资成本系数的增加,将降低可再生能源的投资量、电价和电力需求量,从而导致售电商利润会减少,但发电商利润会增加。(4)可再生能源偏好系数的增加使得售电商利润增加,发电商利润减少。     

POLICE PATROL BEAT DESIGN: ALLOCATION OF EFFORT AND EVALUATION OF EXPECTED PERFORMANCE*

This paper describes an iterative process for deploying police patrol force manpower. An application of the process is described as a case study of the St. Louis County Police Department (Missouri). The application is based on the county geographic information system (COGIS) and uses the hypercube queuing model (HQM). The procedures presented illustrate the generation of performance characteristics associated with a specific beat deployment. The application results indicate that the iterative model presented is a reliable and valid instrument for allocating police patrols.     

An Ecological Systems Perspective on Mentoring at Work: A Review and Future Prospects

After nearly 30 years as a subject of inquiry, mentoring remains a mainstay in the organizational literature, as relationships are arguably more important than ever to employees' personal and career growth. In this paper, we take an ecological perspective to situate and review topical areas of the literature with the intention of enhancing our understanding of how mentoring outcomes for protégés and mentors are determined not only by individual differences (e.g., personality) and dyadic factors (e.g., the quality of a relationship)—both of which represent the most frequently examined levels of analyses—but also the influences of the people from various social spheres comprising their developmental network, the larger organization of which they are a part, and macrosystem factors (e.g., technological shifts, globalization) that enable, constrain, or shape mentoring and other developmental relationships. Our review examines multi-level influences that shape mentoring outcomes, and brings into focus how the study of mentoring can be advanced by research at the network, organizational, and macrosystem levels. To help guide future research efforts, we assert that adult development and relational schema theories, Positive Organizational Scholarship, a social network perspective, signaling theory, and institutional theories can help to address emerging and unanswered questions at each ecological level.