关于我国民族统计几个基本理论问题的思考

我国实施西部大开发战略 ,在很大程度上是为了促进少数民族繁荣和推动民族自治地方社会经济的向前发展。这也是新世纪初期我国民族工作的首要任务。民族统计工作 ,作为民族工作的重要组成部分 ,肩负着为国家提供民族自治地方发展的数据信息、为提高少数民族人民生活水平献计献策、为党和政府制定正确的决策提供咨询意见的重任。新中国建立以来 ,我国政府一直进行着民族统计工作 ,改革开放以后 ,民族统计工作更是逐年得到加强。国家民委专门设立统计处 ,领导全国的民族统计工作 ,取得了很大的成绩 ,为国家民族工作做出了应有的贡献。但从目前…     

Statistics and risk in the nuclear industry

Nuclear power, after a decade of being ignored, is again becoming an option—perhaps the preferred option—for future power generation in Britain. Can it be done safely? As importantly, can existing plant be decommissioned safely? Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson has worked on a series of statistical projects with the nuclear industry, stretching over a period of 30 years. He looks at the part statistics has played in past safety assurance and the questions that are now being asked about its role. He also reveals past cases where operators failed to follow valid statistical indicators of plant failure.     

Of weekly wages and the price of wheat—and soaring IQs

Graphics can be extremely important in making information understandable. The man who invented statistical graphics was one of those few remarkable men who have changed the way we think. He was also a rogue. Helen Joyce looks at the charts—and the career—of Henry Playfair.     

Distribution‐free statistical intervals via ranked‐set sampling

The author shows how to construct distribution‐free statistical intervals from ranked‐set sampling. He considers the cases of confidence, tolerance, and prediction intervals. He shows how to compute their coverage probabilities and he compares their performance to that of intervals based on simple random sampling. He finds that the ranked‐set sampling‐based intervals are at least as good as their classical counterpart in most settings of interest, although the nature of the advantage depends on the type of interval considered.     

丘浚《大学衍义补》中的统计思想

丘浚建议每朝一卷 ,编制明代《会计录》 ,“使国计大纲 ,了然在目”。他鉴于土地分配不均 ,主张用“配丁田法”以解决之。他重视谷物价格的稳定 ,建议在全国范围内建立谷物价格情报网。他在中国历史上首先利用时间数列进行经济分析 ,从而增强了论点的说服力。丘浚 ( 1418— 1495) ,字仲琛 ,号琛 ,琼山 (今海南琼山 )人。学者称琼台先生。景泰进士 ,授编修。成化时为国子监祭酒。孝宗即位 ,任礼部尚书 ,兼文渊阁大学士 ,参预机务。后改户部尚书兼武英殿大学士。性好学 ,博极群书。深国家典故。一生功业 ,在于他的著作。他认为宋代真德秀…     

《统计研究》之统计研究——《统计研究》创刊三十周年回眸和展望

《统计研究》作为我国统计学界的权威学术刊物,自创刊之日起,一直不遗余力地促进着统计学科的发展,为统计科学的研究和交流提供了良好的平台,记录了经济统计和数理统计研究的发展轨迹,记载了统计学科成长、发展和壮大的历史,造就了一大批统计学术精英。30年来,《统计研究》共刊载文章4640篇,涉及统计学研究的各个领域,加快了与其他学科的融合,参与成果发表的作者单位遍布国内外,提升了《统计研究》的国际影响力;《统计研究》各项期刊科学指标发展态势良好,其质量和影响力在统计类刊物中一路领先,在经济类权威刊物中,也在起步较晚的情况下稳步发展,取得了长足的进步,在权威刊物中占据一席之地。《统计研究》应乘势而上,借助统计学成为一级学科之势,将其建成国家一级期刊。     

Harold Silverstone: A Perspective

This paper is a perspective on the scientific contributions of the politically controversial New Zealand-born statistician Harold Silverstone (1915-74). His scientific work — including a classic paper on minimum variance with A.C. Aitken — produced some key results in estimation theory. He also contributed significantly to the practical application of statistics, particularly the development of statistical consulting services in medicine.     

持久冲击与中国经济增长的波动

文章依据一个内在逻辑一致的统计程序考察了1952~2003年间中国实际GDP序列的数据生成过程。发现中国实际GDP序列遵循一个带漂移的随机游走,因而它有一个随机波动的长期趋势;进一步的分析还揭示了长期趋势的波动幅度不小于短期周期性波动的幅度。这些事实在理论上意味着产出序列增长趋势的变化和它经常偏离趋势的运动共同构成了中国产出序列的波动。因此,有理由相信来自供给方面的持久冲击是导致中国经济波动不可忽视的重要原因。     

目光深远的统计学大师 ——张尧庭先生逝世五周年纪念

 张尧庭先生是一位目光深远的统计学大师。本文认为他生前提出的下述观点即“统计学的发展全靠数学与实际问题的推动”,“为反映整体的、动态的东西统计学必须要有新突破”,以及“促进数理统计和经济统计的学术交流”等,在今天仍然具有现实意义,可为我们现时的统计学教学与研究的深入发展提供有益参考。     

统计显著性:一个被误读的P值——基于美国统计学会的声明

美国统计学会"关于统计显著性与P值"的官方声明发布之后,再次引发国内外研究学者对P值的广泛关注。在介绍国内统计教材中假设检验的基本内容和步骤的基础上,以"硬币投掷"与"背影识人"为例直观性解释P值、统计显著性与统计功效等相关概念,并引用心理学统计经典调查案例分析P值被误读的原因。同时,基于美国统计学会的声明,给出正确使用P值的建议。     

Some perspectives on statistical computing

The author argues for an increased emphasis on computing in the training of statisticians and in their professional practice. He describes some of the current technological challenges and demonstrates the importance for statisticians of becoming more active in computational aspects of their work and specifically in producing software for carrying out statistical procedures. Such a reorientation will require substantial changes in thinking, pedagogy and infrastructure; the author mentions some of the conditions required to achieve these goals.     

A note on the history of regression

The first notion of statistical regression is usually attributed to Francis Galton. Recent work in a special field of applied statistics has brought to light the work of the neglected pioneer R. J. Adcock. Despite errors of execution, he deserves remembering in the history of our science. He came close to inventing linear regression; he also saw the need for specifying criteria for optimal estimation of parameters, and, with a little clearer understanding, he might have become the first recorded maximizer of likelihood.     

Family fertility: suggested and implemented model; a discussion paper

The author suggests that the "best" fertility rate is in the range close to simple replacement. He suggests that since actual and expected fertility in Poland today is close to this "best" rate, there is no need for social policies that would attempt to affect current population trends     

Defying symmetry

John Venn, Cambridge don, is best known for the "Venn diagram", which he introduced in the course of his lectures on logic and published in 1880. But he had other strings to his bow. He wrote The Logic of Chance, which greatly influenced the development of the frequentist viewpoint and included the first drawing of a random walk in the plane (accompanied by the realization that in the limit the figure was fractal, as we should now say). He gave the first British lecture course on Theory of Statistics, in the Moral Science Tripos in 1890, and among historians he is famous for that branch of local history which concentrates on colleges, universities and their members.     

Racing, the Law and the Top Jockey: the Kieren Fallon trial

In a headline-hitting trial at the Old Bailey last year, top jockey Kieren Fallon was accused of "throwing" races. Did he really ride to lose? John Haigh comes to a clear statistical conclusion.     

Remarks on the 'Bayesian' method of moments

Zellner has proposed a novel methodology for estimating structural parameters and predicting future observables based on two moments of a subjective distribution and the application of the maximum entropy principle-all in the absence of an explicit statistical model or likelihood function for the data. He calls his procedure the 'Bayesian method of moments' (BMOM). In a recent paper in this journal, Green and Strawderman applied the BMOM to a model for slash pine plantations. It is our view that there are inconsistencies between BMOM and Bayesian (conditional) probability, as we explain in this paper.     

Dr Fisher's casebook

At my first successful interview for a lecturing post, a learned consultant asked: "What is the purpose of teaching medical students statistics?" He obviously doubted the necessity, but had to sit on the appointments panel since the medical faculty has stumped up the money. I replied rather sanctimoniously: "So that patients receive better care" It may not have been Descartes but it got me the job, and I have never stopped believing it.     

Control charts in practice

In the first issue of Significance , Roland Caulcutt suggested that a common feature of many successful companies is their development of a "management-by-fact" culture. He further suggested that such a culture requires that managers focus on processes, and that control charts be used at all levels throughout the organisation. In this follow-up article he explains how the various types of control chart are set up and used in practice.     

Relatioinships between economic and statistical price indices

In the following, the economic counterparts of Eichhorn's and Voeller's tests for statistical price indices will be studied. We will see that replacing the statistical Commensurability Axiom in the economic price index theory by a property which is only concerned with price changes leads to similar relationships between this one and several other tests as in the statistical price index theory.     

The 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey: operations and results

The author assesses the 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey, which was "designed to produce Census tabulation of [U.S.] states and local areas corrected for the undercount or overcount of population....[He] discusses the process that produced the census adjustment estimates [as well as] the work aimed at improving the estimates.... The article then presents some of the principal results...."