A conversation with Richard Easterlin

After an introduction touching on various biographical highlights, this paper summarizes a wide-ranging discussion with Richard Easterlin which occurred in the Autumn of 1996. We considered the Easterlin Hypothesis – its genesis and current status, together with Easterlin‘s views on attempts to develop measures of relative income – and then moved on to “The Fertility Revolution” and questions regarding the applicability of the theory of household choice in modernizing societies. This was followed by a discussion of his early career development and influences on him at that time, ending with ruminations regarding the current state of economics, and the validity of training given to young economists today. JEL classification: J10, J11, J13 Received February 13, 1997 / Accepted February 26, 1997     

Who gets over the training hurdle? A study of the training experiences of young men and women in Britain

Using longitudinal data from the British National Child Development Study, this paper examines gender differences in the determinants of work-related training. The analysis covers a crucial decade in the working lives of this 1958 birth cohort of young men and women – the years spanning the ages of 23 to 33. Hurdle negative binomial models are used to estimate the number of work-related training events lasting at least three days. This approach takes into account the fact that more than half the men and two thirds of the women in the sample experienced no work-related training lasting three or more days over the period 1981 to 1991. Our analysis suggests that reliance on work-related training to improve the skills of the work force will result in an increase in the skills of the already educated, but will not improve the skills of individuals entering the labor market with relatively low levels of education. JEL classification: C25, I21, J24. Received February 9, 1996/Accepted August 14, 1996     

Hope and Adaptation to Old Age: Their Relationship with Individual-Demographic Factors

This study examined the relationship between hope as disposition, adaptation to old age, and individual-demographic factors. One hundred and fifty older adults, aged 60–93 years old, completed the Adult Dispositional Hope Scale developed by Snyder et al. [1991, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60, pp. 570–585], and the Adaptation to Old Age Questionnaire developed by Efklides et al. [2003, European Psychologist, 8, pp. 178–191]. Factor analyses revealed 2 factors for hope, “Pathways Thought” and “Agency Thinking”, and 4 factors for adaptation to old age, “Health Comparison”, “General Adaptation/Self-Efficacy”, “Self-Control”, and “Generativity”. Regression analyses showed that hope as pathways thought predicted all factors of adaptation, whereas hope as agency thinking predicted only “General Adaptation/Self-Efficacy” and “Self-Control”. There were also some effects of gender, education, marital status, place of residence, and health status on specific aspects of adaptation to old age.     

The World Social Situation: Development Challenges at the Outset of a New Century

World social development has arrived at a critical turning point. Economically advanced nations have made significant progress toward meeting the basic needs of their populations; however, the majority of developing countries have not. Problems of rapid population growth, failing economies, famine, environmental devastation, majority-minority group conflicts, increasing militarization, among others, are pushing many developing nations toward the brink of social chaos. This paper focuses on worldwide development trends for the 40-year period 1970–2009. Particular attention is given to the disparities in development that exist between the world’s “rich” and “poor” countries as well as the global forces that sustain these disparities. The paper also discusses more recent positive trends occurring within the world’s “socially least developed countries” (SLDCs), especially those located in Africa and Asia, in reducing poverty and in promoting improved quality of life for increasing numbers of their populations.     

Explaining Changing Suicide Rates in Norway 1948–2004: The Role of Social Integration

Using Norway 1948–2004 as a case, I test whether changes in variables related to social integration can explain changes in suicide rates. The method is the Box-Jenkins approach to time-series analysis. Different aspects of family integration contribute significantly to the explanation of Norwegian suicide rates in this period. The estimated effect of separations is stronger than the effect of divorces, both for men and women, probably because separations are closer in time to the “real” marital breakup. This difference has not been demonstrated in earlier time-series research. Marriages decrease the suicide rates for males. The unemployment estimate for men has a negative sign, contributing to fewer suicides. Both increasing alcohol (beer) consumption and fewer marriages seem to be implicated in the soaring suicide rate for young men since 1970.

Future low fertility prospects in Mongolia? An evaluation of the factors that support having a child

With 2.59 children per woman in 2008, Mongolia appears today as an exception in East Asia where fertility rates are far below the replacement level. Moreover, from its historical nadir of 1.95 children per women in 2005, fertility is on the rise. This paper first presents recent fertility development in Mongolia. Second, based on the experiences of European and East Asian countries, factors contributing to the development of low fertility are discussed in reference to the Mongolian context. Most of these factors are indeed found in Mongolia and could probably contribute to reducing fertility in the future. However, the country also presents cultural-family practices and recently-adopted fertility-family incentives which may support and stabilize fertility rates. These recent fertility-incentives factors and policies adopted by the Government of Mongolia are discussed in the final part from the perspective of equity, efficiency, and efficacy proposed by McDonald (2006b, “An assessment of policies that support having children from the perspectives of equity, efficiency and efficacy”, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2006, Special issue on ‘Postponement of childbearing on Europe’, 213–234). The aim is to determine if these measures are efficient to counterbalance and cancel out the depressing fertility effects.     

Labor supply responses and welfare effects from replacing current tax rules by a flat tax: Empirical evidence from Italy, Norway and Sweden

This paper employs a microeconometric framework to examine the labor supply responses and the welfare effects from replacing current tax systems in Italy, Norway and Sweden by a flat tax on total income. The flat tax rates are determined so that the tax revenues are equal to the revenues as of 1992. The flat tax rates vary from 23 per cent in Italy, 25 per cent in Norway, to 29 per cent in Sweden. In all three countries the labor supply responses decline sharply with pre-reform disposable income. The results show that the efficiency costs of the current tax systems relative to a flat tax may be rather high in Norway and much lower, but positive, in Italy and Sweden. In all three countries “rich” households – defined by their pre-tax-reform income – tend to benefit (in terms of welfare) more than “poor” households. In Italy and Sweden a majority will lose from a shift to a flat tax, while in Norway a majority is predicted to win. Received: 19 May 1998/Accepted: 02 July 1999     

Is the German apprenticeship system a panacea for the U.S. labor market?

This paper explores the structure of incentives undergirding the German system of apprenticeship training. We first describe characteristics of the German labor market which may lead firms to accept part of the cost of general training, even in the face of worker turnover. We then compare labor market outcomes for apprentices in Germany and high school graduates in the United States. Apprentices in Germany occupy a similar position within the German wage structure as held by high school graduates in the United States labor market. Finally, we provide evidence that – in both countries – the problem of forming labor market bonds is particularly acute for minority youth. JEL classification: J24, J31, J60 Received: July 4, 1996 / Accepted February 4, 1997     

Gender, Social Change, and Living Arrangements Among Older Egyptians During the 1990s

We compare older Egyptian women’s and men’s propensities to live with unmarried children only, any ever-married children, and alone, and we assess “kin-keeping” versus “modernization” hypotheses about the effects of social change on living arrangements during 1988–2000. Socioeconomic differences among women and men accounted for much of their crude differences in living arrangements during the period. Propensities to live with any ever-married children declined, and propensities to live alone or with unmarried children only rose. Compared to men, women continued to live more often with any ever-married children and less often with unmarried children only, and the 1988 gender gap in solitary residence disappeared by 2000. Increasing coresidential demands from unmarried dependent children, less frequent coresidential support from ever-married children, and rapidly increasing rates of solitary living especially among older men suggest emerging needs for non-coresidential instrumental support, especially among older Egyptians who are economically disadvantaged.

Family size,schooling and child labor in Peru -- an empirical analysis

This paper analyzes the effects of being indigenous, number of siblings, sibling activities and sibling age structure on child schooling progress and child non-school activity. The analysis is based on the Peru 1991 Living Standards Survey. The analysis shows that family size is important. However, the analysis also demonstrates the importance of taking into consideration the activities of siblings. The number of siblings not entrolled in school proves to be an important control variable in at least one specification of the empirical model. However, more research is needed on the interactions between siblings, their activities and their age structure. In other words, an attempt must be made to find ways of taking into account the “life cycle effects” of one‘s siblings on their schooling performance and labor force activity. The analysis also shows that the age structure of siblings is important, but in conjunction with their activities. That is, having a greater number of younger siblings implies less schooling, more age-grade distortion in the classroom and more child labor. JEL classification: J22, J23, I21 Received August 1, 1996 / Accepted February 21, 1997     

Explaining son preference in rural India: the independent role of structural versus individual factors

Much research has been done on demographic manifestations of son preference, particularly girls’ excess mortality; however, there is less research that focuses on son preference itself. This paper analyzes the determinants of son preference in rural India. We separate the independent, relative effects of characteristics of individual women and their households, village opportunities for women and village development, and social norms. We look at both socioeconomic and sociocultural variables. Finally, we examine whether predictors of son preference differ by desired family size. Our data come from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) India, 1992–1993. We use an ordered logit model, with dummy variables for state of residence. Our analysis shows that women’s education, particularly at secondary and higher levels, is consistently and significantly associated with weaker son preference, regardless of desired family size. Once factors measuring social norms, such as marriage customs, caste and religion, are included, economic wealth and women’s employment at household or village levels are not significant. Media access remains significant, suggesting an influence of “modernizing” ideas. Among social factors, caste and religion are associated with son preference but, once state of residence is controlled for, marriage patterns and cultivation patterns are insignificant. The strength and significance for son preference of many determinants differs by desired family size. Our results suggest that policy makers seeking to influence son preference need to identify and target different policy levers to women in different fertility and social contexts, rather than try an approach of one size that fits all.     

Adult population parameters and life tables of an epilachnine beetle (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) feeding on bitter cucumber in Sumatra

Summary The population dynamics of an epilachnine beetle, which is closely related toEpilachna sparsa Dieke (henceforth called “sp. C”) and feeds on bitter cucumberMomordica charantia, was studied by mark-recapture of adults and the construction of life tables. The study was repeated three times, i.e., March–May, July–September and October–December in 1982, in Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia. After the establishment of the host plants, adults of “sp. C” soon colonized, and each study period ended in the death of the plants due to defoliation by the larvae and adults. The estimated mean length of residence of adults ranged from 6–11 days, but this was probably much shorter than the actual longevity, because the adults were so active that they flew away, or dropped off the plants, when they were approached or slightly disturbed. Life tables indicated that egg mortality ranged from 17.8–53.9%, and a parasitic waspTetrastichus sp. B made up 41.1–64.2% of egg mortality. Two wasps,Tetrastichus sp. C andPediobius foveolatus killed 1.2–19.4% (7.6–100%)^* of 4th instars and only the latter species attacked the pupae, killing 24.6–59.1% (45.1–72.4%). Parasitism and starvation by overcrowding contributed most to the total mortality from egg to adult emergence, which ranged from 89.4–99.5%. “Sp. C” had a higher diversity and level of parasitism than the Japanese species,E. vigintioctopunctata. The high dispersal power of “sp. C”, coupled with the prolongedl _x−m_x schedules shown under laboratory conditions, was advantageous for exploiting the food plant which was available throughout the year, but was rather patchily distributed in space.     

Alegría! Flow in Leisure and Life Satisfaction: The Mediating Role of Event Satisfaction Using Data from an Acrobatics Show

The aim of the current study was to examine the role of satisfaction-with-event as a mediator in the relations between flow and life satisfaction based on the bottom-up theory (Andrews and Withey in Social indicators of well-being: Americans’ perceptions of life quality. Plenum, New York, 1976; Lee et al. in J Macromarketing 22(2): 158–169, 2002). Four hundred and thirty-four participants with a mean age of 35.60 (SD = 11.76) were recruited from the audience of a “Cirque du Soleil” acrobatics show, performed in Taiwan in 2009. Participants completed the flow scale (Csikszentmihalyi in Flow: the psychology of optimal experience. Harper & Row, New York, 1990), a satisfaction-with-event scale (Lin and Hsu in Mark Rev 3(4): 497–528, 2008), and a satisfaction-with-life scale (Diener et al. in J Pers Assess 49:71–75, 1985) immediately after viewing the show. Structural equation modeling was conducted to examine our hypothesis that satisfaction-with-event levels would fully mediate the relationship between flow and overall life satisfaction. Results supported our prediction and are discussed in terms of bottom-up theory. Implications of the study are also provided for the leisure managers.     

Child support and non-resident fathers’ contact with their children

The paper presents a model of a non-resident father’s child support and contact with his child, which combines the public good treatment of “child quality” with “trade” in father–child contact time in a setting of non-cooperative interaction. It predicts that father’s income and mother’s non-labour income should have exactly the same effect on the frequency of father–child contact if he chooses to make lump sum payments to the mother. If he does not or there is a binding child support payment order, they have effects opposite in direction. A higher binding support order reduces father–child contact but may well raise “child quality”.

Religion as a determinant of marital fertility

This paper develops hypotheses about the effects of husbands‘ and wives‘ religious affiliations on fertility. The hypotheses are based on two central ideas. First, religions differ in their fertility norms and corresponding tradeoffs between the quality and quantity of children; differences in religious beliefs between husband and wife may thus lead to conflict regarding fertility decisions and possible resolution through bargaining. Second, a low level of religious compatibility between the spouses may raise the expected probability of marital dissolution and thereby decrease the optimal amount of investments in spouse-specific human capital. Analyses of data from the 1987–1988 National Survey of Families and Households conducted in the United States suggest that both of these effects play important roles in explaining the observed linkages between the religious composition of unions and fertility behavior. JEL classification: J1, J11, J13 Received February 17, 1995 / Accepted February 15, 1996     

Strategic altruistic transfers and rent seeking within the family

This paper examines the rent-seeking behavior of “selfish” children in competing for parental transfers. The paper extends Chang and Weisman (South Econ J 71:821–836, 2005), that focuses on compensated transfers, to allow for non-compensated transfers à la Buchanan (J Law Econ 26:71–85, 1983) and derives results for the case in which children’s time contributions as perceived by their parents are a merit good (e.g., service), pure waste (e.g., bugging), or a mix of both. For an increase in the proportion of time contributions that are pure waste, parents find it optimal to reduce the size of an overall transfer, thereby lowering the levels of wasteful rent-seeking activities by their children within the family.

Cultural Consumption Patterns in South Africa: An Investigation of the Theory of Cultural Omnivores

Contrary to Bourdieu’s theory (Distinction: A social critique of the judgment of taste. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press (1984)) that cultural consumption of so-called “high” versus popular culture is determined by socio-economic class, Peterson (Poetics 21:243–258, 1992; Poetics 33:257–282, 2005) finds that higher income and education groups are more likely to be “cultural omnivores”—consumers of a wide variety of both high and popular cultural goods. Omnivores were also found to be much less likely to exclude other cultures and to be more open to, and tolerant of, the views of others than those with narrower cultural tastes, called “cultural univores”. This article investigates the omnivore/univore hypothesis in a South African context, using survey data collected from 500 attendees of live theatre performances at the National Arts Festival in 2008. Multiple correspondence analysis (also called perceptual mapping) shows an interesting intermediate state between Boudieu-like high culture univores and Peterson omnivores, which could have interesting implications for the development of social tolerance in multi-cultural South Africa.     

Fraught with Ambivalence: Reproductive Intentions and Contraceptive Choices in a Sub-Saharan Fertility Transition

Demographic studies that search for signs of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa rarely examine the complex gamut of individual aspirations and misgivings, hopes and frustrations, failures and triumphs that accompany the emerging declines of fertility rates in the subcontinent. This study draws upon qualitative data collected in peri-urban areas of Maputo, Mozambique’s capital and largest metropolis, to explore contradictory meanings and feelings surrounding changes in fertility intentions and contraceptive choices. It argues that although changes in these two aspects of reproductive life are interrelated, they are predicated on distinct types and configurations of external pressures and psychological apparatus, which is often manifested as a puzzling disjunction between fertility preferences and contraceptive use. This disjunction can be further reinforced by persistent gender divisions in reproductive views and strategies. Informal social interaction plays an important role in building societal consensus over fertility matters, but because such interaction deals with reproductive intentions and contraceptive use through largely different mechanisms, it may also help accentuate the intentions-contraception disjunction. This study’s findings therefore call upon both researchers and policymakers to attend more closely to the multidimensionality of fertility transitions in sub-Saharan societies and specifically to the complexities underlying such popular notions as “unmet need for family planning,” “spacing” versus “limiting” births, or “spousal communication” on reproductive matters.     

Evaluating the pin money hypothesis: the relationship between women's labour market activity,family income and poverty in Britain

In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that the over-representation of women amongst the low paid is of little importance because women‘s earnings account for only a small proportion of total family income. Data from the General Household Survey (GHS), together with attitudinal evidence from three cross-sectional data sources, indicate that women‘s earnings are in fact an important and growing component of family income. The majority of the growth in the share of women‘s earnings occurs as a result of changing family labour structures; women‘s earnings are playing an increasingly important role in keeping their families out of poverty. JEL classification: J16; J31. Received April 9, 1996/Accepted August 22, 1996