A Structural Model of Dense Network Formation

This paper proposes an empirical model of network formation, combining strategic and random networks features. Payoffs depend on direct links, but also link externalities. Players meet sequentially at random, myopically updating their links. Under mild assumptions, the network formation process is a potential game and converges to an exponential random graph model (ERGM), generating directed dense networks. I provide new identification results for ERGMs in large networks: if link externalities are nonnegative, the ERGM is asymptotically indistinguishable from an Erdős–Rényi model with independent links. We can identify the parameters only when at least one of the externalities is negative and sufficiently large. However, the standard estimation methods for ERGMs can have exponentially slow convergence, even when the model has asymptotically independent links. I thus estimate parameters using a Bayesian MCMC method. When the parameters are identifiable, I show evidence that the estimation algorithm converges in almost quadratic time.     

A New Creation or an Image and Likeness? The Maltese Experience of Establishing Local Government in a Centralized Micro-State

Small states vary among themselves as to whether they have significant local government systems. While government in Malta has been historically a very centralized activity, a network of local councils was established in the early 1990s as part of a more general public sector reform movement. Unlike some other small states, Malta has strong political parties, and they have played an important part in the affairs of the local councils as well as of the central government. Their establishment has therefore done little to reduce political polarization or promote decentralist values, as was hoped when they were first established.     

基于讨价还价的私募基金机制比较研究

作为私募基金的主要形式,有限合伙制具有比公司制更高的激励作用,原因可能是两者在契约设计上的不同。本文引入讨价还价模型对公司制与有限合伙制进行分析,求解了两种机制下的均衡契约。研究发现,股东(或有限合伙人)和经理(或普通合伙人)之间的博弈等价于包含外部选择的讨价还价博弈,当经理保留收益不断提高,有限合伙制将逐步取代公司制。进一步地,有限合伙制将给出更高的分成比例,进而实现更高的激励,更有效地利用人力资本。     

Stability and Preference Alignment in Matching and Coalition Formation

We study matching and coalition formation environments allowing complementarities and peer effects. Agents have preferences over coalitions, and these preferences vary with an underlying, and commonly known, state of nature. Assuming that there is substantial variability of preferences across states of nature, we show that there exists a core stable coalition structure in every state if and only if agents' preferences are pairwise‐aligned in every state. This implies that there is a stable coalition structure if agents' preferences are generated by Nash bargaining over coalitional outputs. We further show that all stability‐inducing rules for sharing outputs can be represented by a profile of agents' bargaining functions and that agents match assortatively with respect to these bargaining functions. This framework allows us to show how complementarities and peer effects overturn well known comparative statics of many‐to‐one matching.     

闭环供应链再制品消费补贴政策模型分析

本文从政府提供消费补贴以鼓励消费者选择购买再制品的视角,构建了政府消费补贴下的闭环供应链博弈模型,得到了政府的最优消费补贴策略,并探讨了政府消费补贴政策对闭环供应链新品与再制品的定价、供应链总利润、消费者剩余、社会福利的影响。研究结果表明：1）只有满足特定条件时,政府才需提供再制品消费补贴;2）政府的消费补贴在制造商和消费者之间进行平均分配,因而补贴政策对制造商和消费者均有激励作用;3）政府消费补贴政策有利于供应链总利润、消费者剩余、社会福利的提高;4）政府应引导制造商专注于再制造,将废旧品的回收交由第三方回收商来完成,这有利于提高废旧产品的回收率;5）政府消费补贴政策将造成再制品对新品的市场挤兑效应。论文最后利用数值试验对研究结果进行了验证。     

跨地区企业投入产出模型研究

本文针对现代企业跨地区生产经营的特点,对经典企业投入产出模型进行扩展,引入地区变量,编制了跨地区企业投入产出表并建立了相应的跨地区企业投入产出理论模型。在此基础上,对跨地区企业投入产出表模型的特征进行系统总结,并比较了跨地区企业投入产出模型与地区间投入产出模型及经典企业投入产出模型的差异。     

A Noncooperative Model of Network Formation

We present an approach to network formation based on the notion that social networks are formed by individual decisions that trade off the costs of forming and maintaining links against the potential rewards from doing so. We suppose that a link with another agent allows access, in part and in due course, to the benefits available to the latter via his own links. Thus individual links generate externalities whose value depends on the level of decay/delay associated with indirect links. A distinctive aspect of our approach is that the costs of link formation are incurred only by the person who initiates the link. This allows us to formulate the network formation process as a noncooperative game. We first provide a characterization of the architecture of equilibrium networks. We then study the dynamics of network formation. We find that individual efforts to access benefits offered by others lead, rapidly, to the emergence of an equilibrium social network, under a variety of circumstances. The limiting networks have simple architectures, e.g., the wheel, the star, or generalizations of these networks. In many cases, such networks are also socially efficient.     

我国政府支出适度规模估计及最优动态路径研究

在分析政府支出最优规模的理论框架基础上,运用巴罗模型构建最优政府支出估计模型,利用我国的时间序列数据（1983～2007年）分析得出政府支出适度规模值为占GDP的34．66％,并在此基础上根据道尔顿最大社会收益原则,从形态上描绘了政府支出最优规模的动态路径,对探讨政府支出最优规模的变动提供了一定的参考依据和分析思路。     

废旧电器电子产品双渠道回收模型及政府补贴作用研究

目前我国的大部分废旧电器电子产品没有得到环保回收,回收市场上存在以有拆解资质的回收处理商为主导的正规渠道和无拆解资质的回收处理商主导的非正规渠道。鉴于此,本文建立了双渠道回收竞争模型,刻画了两种渠道各自的回收处理途径和盈利模式,给出了均衡时的回收价格和翻修比例,讨论了不同竞争情景下政府补贴的影响。结果发现当补贴额度较低时,政府补贴可以有效刺激回收量的增长、扶持正规企业的发展,但随着补贴的提升,补贴对回收总量的刺激作用减弱。研究还发现当翻修品价格较高时,旧货市场的存在可以帮助正规企业牵制非正规拆解商的发展,同时提高翻修质量门槛可以限制废旧品流向非正规处理渠道。     

隐藏招标人偏好的政府工程多属性招投标分析

采用Harsanyi引入虚拟局中人的方法,将隐藏招标人偏好的政府工程多属性不完全博弈转换为一个完全但不完美信息博弈,在求出博弈模型的精炼贝叶斯纳什均衡解的基础上,分析招、投标双方的博弈策略。结果发现：投标人是否参与隐藏招标人偏好的政府工程投标,取决于其对招标人偏好的判断,其预期招标人的质量和工期偏好系数的概率值越大,期望收益就越大,投标积极性越高;招标人的招标剩余效用以及投标人的收益与投标质量和工期呈U形关系;招标人可以有意识地释放其偏好信息,以刺激投标人从而增加招标的剩余效用。这些结论的应用有助于改进政府工程招标程序设计,规范政府工程招投标行为。     

基于结构方程建模法的CRM成熟应用评价模型

在对客户关系管理(CRM)文献与实际调研的基础上,设计出CRM成熟应用的评价体系与模型,并运用AMOS统计分析方法,对"战略与组织"、"流程"、"人员"、"技术"、"客户"与"绩效"之间的关系进行了结构方程建模分析,建立了CRM成熟应用的结构方程模型.     

A Structural Equation Model of New Product Design and Development*

This research uses structural equation modeling to analyze the effects of supplier assessment, Just‐In‐Time, and quality management strategies on new product design and development. A survey of senior managers who are members of the American Production and Inventory Control Society in the United States was used to test the relationships between the constructs in the model. In general, the survey results supported the proposed structural equation model. The data showed that supplier assessment and Just‐In‐Time strategies were correlated and affected the quality management strategy used, which in turn influenced the new product design and development strategy. The data also showed that the Just‐In‐Time strategy directly influenced the new product design and development strategy.     

中国城市基层政府公共服务职能的不完全外包及其动因——基于扎根理论的研究发现

基于中国情境,运用经典扎根理论研究方法,以广州、深圳城市基层政府的环卫服务外包为样本,研究了中国城市基层政府公共服务外包的动因。中国城市基层政府公共服务外包的动因同时来自内部与外部,受政治和经济两方面因素的影响。政治压力强化是中国城市基层政府的公共服务职能的不完全外包现象的动因。同时,采用经典扎根理论研究方法进行政府公共服务外包研究也具有方法论的创新。     

A Liquidity-based Model of Security Design

We consider the problem of the design and sale of a security backed by specified assets. Given access to higher-return investments, the issuer has an incentive to raise capital by securitizing part of these assets. At the time the security is issued, the issuer's or underwriter's private information regarding the payoff of the security may cause illiquidity, in the form of a downward-sloping demand curve for the security. The severity of this illiquidity depends upon the sensitivity of the value of the issued security to the issuer's private information. Thus, the security-design problem involves a tradeoff between the retention cost of holding cash flows not included in the security design, and the liquidity cost of including the cash flows and making the security design more sensitive to the issuer's private information. We characterize the optimal security design in several cases. We also demonstrate circumstances under which standard debt is optimal and show that the riskiness of the debt is increasing in the issuer's retention costs for assets.     

Mediating and Moderating Roles of Trust in Government in Effective Risk Rumor Management: A Test Case of Radiation‐Contaminated Seafood in South Korea

This study has two aims: to identify effective strategies for managing false rumors about risks and to investigate the roles that basic and situational trust in government play in that process. Online experiment data were collected nationwide from 915 adults in South Korea. They were exposed to a false rumor about radiation‐contaminated seafood and were randomly assigned to one of three rumor response conditions (refutation, denial, attack the attacker). One‐way ANOVA indicated that the refutation response yielded the highest level of situational trust in government response (TGR). Results of moderated mediation models using the PROCESS Macro indicated the following. (1) The refutation response had a positive effect on TGR, and the attack response had a negative effect. (2) There were significant interaction effects between the attack response and preexisting basic trust in government (BTG) in that the attack response had a negative effect on TGR only when BTG was low. (3) TGR significantly mediated the relationship between each of the three rumor responses and two dependent variables (intentions for rumor dissemination and for unwarranted actions), but in dramatically different ways across the responses. This study provides evidence for the superior effectiveness of the refutation rumor response and identifies specific roles of trust in government in the risk rumor management process.     

基于看跌期权契约的应急物资采购储备模型

应急物资具有峰值需求量大,需求不确定性强,缺货成本高等特点,这使得政府必须在事前进行一定数量的物资储备。然而,由于应急物资需求的发生概率较低,针对食品药品等一类具有保质期限的物资,一旦在保质期限内需求未发生,则会造成大量的浪费与损失,加重政府的财政负担。虽然传统供应链中的回购契约可使政府将剩余物资回售给供应方,能够在一定程度上降低政府成本,但是供应方并没有因承担多余风险而获取到额外收益。基于此,本文设计了一种基于看跌期权契约的应急物资采购储备模型,用于解决保质期风险而引发的损失问题,并分析了实现政企供应链协调的机制,探讨了双方实现共赢协调的具体条件。此外,本文进一步表明与回购契约相比,基于看跌期权契约所建立的采购储备模式能够在降低政府成本的同时,合理地补偿供应方因承担多余风险而造成的损失,更好地保障了供应方的利益,达到了政府和供应方双赢的目的。     

Structural invariance and stability of sense of coherence: A longitudinal analysis of two groups with different employment experiences

This 5-year follow-up study investigated the structure and the factorial invariance of the 13-item sense of coherence (SOC) scale (Antonovsky, 1987a) in two employment groups (unemployment/lay-off experiences vs. continuous full-time employment) and across two measurement times. In addition, the stability of SOC between these two employment groups was compared. The postal questionnaire data was collected twice, in 1992 and in 1997. The participants were Finnish technical designers (N=352) aged between 25 and 40 years in 1992. A total of 51% of the investigated participants had been employed full-time during the 5-year follow-up period and 49% had been unemployed and/or laid off for a total period of at least one month during the follow-up. The confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the SOC scale measured one general second-order SOC factor consisting of three, first-order factors of meaningfulness, comprehensibility, and manageability. The results also indicated that the scale was best used as an 11-item measure. The factorial invariance of the scale across time and across the two employment groups was supported by the data. Unexpectedly, the stability of SOC did not differ between the two employment groups. However, those participants who had experienced unemployment and/or been laid off during the follow-up period had a weaker SOC at both measurement times than those who had been employed throughout the follow-up.     

Structural invariance and stability of sense of coherence: A longitudinal analysis of two groups with different employment experiences

This 5-year follow-up study investigated the structure and the factorial invariance of the 13-item sense of coherence (SOC) scale (Antonovsky, ) in two employment groups (unemployment/lay-off experiences vs. continuous full-time employment) and across two measurement times. In addition, the stability of SOC between these two employment groups was compared. The postal questionnaire data was collected twice, in 1992 and in 1997. The participants were Finnish technical designers (N=352) aged between 25 and 40 years in 1992. A total of 51% of the investigated participants had been employed full-time during the 5-year follow-up period and 49% had been unemployed and/or laid off for a total period of at least one month during the follow-up. The confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the SOC scale measured one general second-order SOC factor consisting of three, first-order factors of meaningfulness, comprehensibility, and manageability. The results also indicated that the scale was best used as an 11-item measure. The factorial invariance of the scale across time and across the two employment groups was supported by the data. Unexpectedly, the stability of SOC did not differ between the two employment groups. However, those participants who had experienced unemployment and/or been laid off during the follow-up period had a weaker SOC at both measurement times than those who had been employed throughout the follow-up.     

考虑服务约束的第三方仓库收益与设计优化模型

第三方仓库作为服务提供商, 主要以期望收益最大化为目标, 但是必须满足一定的顾客服务标准。针对高需求环境, 考虑顾客服务水平约束, 提出了一个基于排队论的随机设计优化模型以使仓库的期望收益最大化。采用动态优化算法对模型求解, 选取实例进行了数值实验。结果显示, 模型的优化设计显著地提高了高需求环境下该第三方仓库的期望收益。在此基础上, 找到了服务约束的可行范围和有效范围, 为决策者制定服务标准提供了依据。     

企业跨国经营中的人力资源管理模式选择及原因分析

以5家高新技术企业为对象,通过多案例分析探寻中国企业跨国经营中的人力资源管理模式及选择的影响因素.研究结果表明,中国跨国企业的海外分(子)公司大多不采用传统的单一模式,而是采用民族中心与多中心主义的混合模式,且混合程度不同;在与母国文化相似的地区,更倾向于采用与母公司相同的人力资源管理模式.此外,影响人力资源管理模式选择的因素除海外经营经验,企业成立时间与规模,母公司控制,文化习俗,语言,法律环境与经济发展水平外,关系也是重要的影响因素.无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家,我国跨国企业都注重社会资本与政治资本的运用,尽管在不同的海外国家其使用的程度和效果有所不同.