政策不连续性与财政效率损失——来自地方官员变更的经验证据

"中国特色联邦主义"、"晋升锦标赛"从财政分权和政治晋升的角度解释中国的增长奇迹,然而无论在哪种机制下,地方官员的更替都会造成地方经济政策的不连续,进而导致资源配置扭曲与财政效率损失。本文首先建立了一套财政效率评价指标体系,利用随机前沿法对1999~2012年31个省份的地方财政效率进行测算,然后搜集了同时期各个地级市党政领导的简历资料,采用地级市官员变更比例作为政策不连续性的代理变量,考察了政策不连续性对财政效率的影响。结果显示:(1)由地方官员变动导致的政策不连续性显著降低了地方的财政效率,这种影响以地级市市长变更最为显著。每有一位市长更替,将导致该省份财政效率下降约0.15个百分点。(2)市长任期对财政效率有U型影响,新市长上任1年内,官员任期对财政效率产生负影响,因为换届过渡时政策不连续最明显,1年后地方财政效率逐步回升。(3)新任市长为快速做出政绩,短期内会实施大量新政,致使政府消费扩大、财政赤字扩张,引致财政效率损失。     

Market Orientation and Company Performance: Empirical Evidence From UK Companies

There has been little empirical investigation of a relationship between market orientation and performance, which is assumed to exist in the strategic management and marketing literatures. This limited empirical evidence is equivocal, and is dominated by only two US studies. The overall aim of the study reported in this article was to build on this limited empirical evidence about a relationship, by achieving new insights from another national business culture, namely the UK. Unlike the US evidence, the results from this study suggest that the influence of market orientation on performance is moderated by environmental variables. They suggest that market orientation may not be advantageous in highly turbulent markets, and in conditions of low customer power and high technological change.     

Tax Structure and Female Labour Supply: Evidence from Ireland

How great an effect does the structure of income taxes have on female labour supply? This issue is investigated using a discrete‐choice static labour supply model for married couples in Ireland. The model incorporates fixed costs of working and simultaneously explains participation decisions and preferred hours of work. The model is estimated using data from the 1994 wave of the Living in Ireland Survey. Simulations examine the labour supply effects of introducing greater independence in the tax treatment of married couples, compared with an income‐splitting system, and alternative forms of tax cuts.     

Personality and Labour Market Income: Evidence from Longitudinal Data

This study contributes to the literature on how personality is rewarded in the labour market by examining the relationship between personality and labour market income. Our results suggest that adulthood extraversion is positively associated with income when education, work experience, and unemployment history, measured prospectively from longitudinal data, are controlled for. In addition, childhood constructiveness indicating active and well‐controlled behaviour has a positive association with income in adulthood.     

Population Ageing and the Labour Market: Evidence from Italy

Individual data from eight waves of the European Community Household Panel are used to investigate the impact of cohort size on age‐earnings and employment profiles of Italian male workers. Evidence that over the life cycle cohort size depresses employment opportunities of men with low education and earnings and employment rates of men with intermediate and high qualifications born into large cohorts is found. These results are used to carry out a simple simulation where the average future wages of Italian male workers are projected for the next 4.5 decades. According to this simulation, the wages of Italian male workers will follow a hump‐shaped pattern in the next three decades, before slightly increasing again.     

Developing Absorptive Capacity Theory for Public Service Organizations: Emerging UK Empirical Evidence

A strong public policy focus on high performance means that utilizing management knowledge effectively is at a premium for UK public service organizations. This study empirically examined two English public agencies to explore the inter‐sectoral transfer of a strategic management model originally developed in the private sector – absorptive capacity – which is one way of conceptualizing an organizational competence in such knowledge mobilization. Two theoretical contributions are made. First, a new absorptive capacity framework for public service organizations is developed which recognizes the participation of public agency project teams during an innovation process proceeding over time with phases of co‐creation, testing, metamorphosis and diffusion. Second, our novel framework modifies an early influential model of absorptive capacity. Counter to this model, we argue that realized absorptive capacity requires agency from skilled and embedded actors to turn ‘curbing routines’ into ‘enabling routines’ in all four stages. Project (middle) managers have flexibility in their roles to seize episodic moments of opportunity to innovate and achieve service delivery goals, and to build absorptive capacity capability. Absorptive capacity capability develops organically over time. Future research directions are discussed.     

Disability and Labour Supply during Economic Transition: Evidence from Bulgaria

Abstract. This paper focuses on the interrelationship between disability and labour force participation for the adult population in Bulgaria. We estimate simultaneous equation models with discrete endogenous variables to account for the different forms of interdependence between health and labour supply. Using the Bulgarian Integrated Household Surveys conducted in 1995, 1997 and 2001, our econometric results indicate that disability exerts a negative effect on labour participation, but labour supply has little effect on disability. Evidence from panel data also suggests that disability reduces labour force participation.     

Labour Mobility in Italy: An Empirical Investigation

ABSTRACT: In this paper the author presents a model of unemployment inflows and outflows for the Italian labour market. The flows that the author attempts to estimate are the unemployment inflows and outflows from and to employment. The aggregate estimation suggests that a crucial role is played by the aggregate demand and wage variables, and by the structural change variable. The paper also presents intersectoral estimations of SURE, which take into consideration the flows between Industry and Services. The results are along the lines of those obtained at the aggregate level. An important factor which should be underlined, however, is the asymmetric pattern of the wage variable in the industrial and services sector.     

Public Sector Wage Premium in Canada: Evidence from Labour Force Survey

Although previous research has pointed to a public/private sector wage gap for men and women in Canada, the extent of this gap has not been measured in recent years. Using data from the Canadian Labour Force Survey for September 2008, and using an endogenous switching regression framework to control for self‐selection, I find that both men and women earn a wage premium in the public sector in Canada, although the premium is higher for women. The pure wage premium or economic rent that public sector workers receive relative to their counterparts in the private sector is $1.09, or 5.4 per cent for men and $3.15, or 20 per cent for women. An analysis of selection in the pubic/private sector reveals that public sectors workers are ‘positively selected’ on observables and consist of the ‘cream of the crop’.     

The Governance of Directors' Pay: Evidence from UK Companies

We examine the determination of directors' compensation in UK quoted companies between 1985 and 1994. The primary innovation contained in the paper is the focus on the governance mechanisms that determine pay outcomes. Our results indicate that: (i) directors' compensation is positively related to pre-dated shareholder returns and company size with the quantitative effect of the latter dominating the former. (ii) We find that the pay-for-performance link has become quantitatively stronger over our sample period. (iii) There has been positive adherence to the principles of the Cadbury report, but these variables play little statistical role in shaping the direct compensation of top directors.     

创始人离任对企业成长的影响分析

基于我国上市公司2001～2007年的数据,对创始人离任现象及其对企业成长的影响进行了实证检验。现阶段一些企业出现了创始人离任的现象,不同的离任模式对企业产生不同的影响:创始人离任但受聘高管不离任以及创始人与受聘高管都离任,都将对企业产生显著的消极影响,与创始人离任后期的企业绩效显著负相关;创始人留任但受聘高管离任,这种类似于"替罪羊"的离任模式不仅没有降低企业的后续经营业绩,反而有利于企业绩效的改进。这些结果表明,创始人在企业发展过程中具有一定程度的不可替代性,其留任行为有利于企业的发展,是一种"善意"的自我保护。     

Flexible Work and Turnover: an Empirical Investigation across Cultures

We explored the relationship between three bundles of flexible work arrangements (FWAs) and turnover for two of GLOBE's societal clusters, namely Anglo and Nordic. We collected data through a large‐scale international survey and found significant differences in the FWA–turnover relationship between the two clusters. Specifically, as unsocial hours (overtime, shift work, weekend work) and part‐time arrangements (part‐time and job‐sharing) increase in the Anglo cluster, so does turnover. Further, as schedule flexibility (telework, work from home and flexi‐time) increases in the Nordic cluster, turnover decreases. The results raise issues about the universal applicability of FWA policies and practices among nationally and internationally operating organizations.     

Corporate Strategy Formulation and Taxation: Evidence from UK Firms*

This paper considers the relationship between corporate strategy formulation and taxation. Drawing on prior literature we briefly review the important influence that international taxation has on an array of corporate strategy decisions. We then consider issues in strategy formulation and taxation planning in order to develop an understanding of when and how taxation factors impinge on strategic decision‐making. We draw out the apparent paradox between the nature of strategic decision‐making and financial decision‐making and look for areas of reconciliation. In order to shed light on some of these issues we present findings from the qualitative analysis of a set of personal interviews undertaken with senior tax practitioners in seven UK‐based multinational enterprises and then consider quantitative responses from the tax practitioners working in 145 UK firms.     

会计师事务所合并对审计质量之影响:来自中国资本市场的经验证据

本文以中国2005-2009年间的会计师事务所合并案为对象,利用参与合并的会计师事务所及其上市公司客户的数据,同时从横向和纵向的角度考察了事务所合并对审计质量(以操控性应计的绝对值度量)的影响.结果发现,从横向来看,在控制了其他影响审计质量的因素之后,近两年内参与合并的事务所的审计质量显著低于未发生合并的事务所;而从纵向来看,参与合并的事务所的审计质量也显著低于合并之前.因此,尽管合并意味着相关事务所规模的快速提高,但这非但没有导致审计质量的提高,反而导致审计质量的下降.其原因部分可归结于我国事务所合并很大程度上是行政力量推动的结果以及合并初期不同事务所之间的内部摩擦.     

二级委托代理问题研究:来自委托理财的经验证据

将中国上市公司的委托理财行为,作为二级委托代理问题的典型代表,文章运用Logistic回归方法研究了2000年到2004年的上市公司委托理财,发现两类因素——公司层面的因素和所有权层面的因素,会影响这种组织关系的建立:"自由现金量"与委托理财发生概率显著正相关,而传统的"自由现金流"理论没有得到实证证据的支持;第一大股东持股比例越高,越可能发生委托理财,重要股东数越多,发生委托理财的概率越低。在控制了资产负债率、公司规模等变量之后,结果依然不变。     

Accounting for Strikes: Evidence from UK Manufacturing in the 1980s

The decrease in the number of strikes in the UK during the 1980s has revived the discussion on the explanatory factors of strike frequency. This paper investigates explanations for the time variation of strike frequency in different industries of British manufacturing. The framework used is that of the joint cost model of strikes; strike frequency is inversely related to strike costs. The results from a panel of 90 manufacturing industries for the period 1983–88 show some support for the hypothesis that strikes decreased because they became more expensive. In the main, we find that factors that affect both employers and employees (such as revenue, inventories) are significant in explaining variations in strike frequency. Factors that affect only employees, however, such as the unemployment rate, are not.     

CEO变更与企业价值关系的实证模型

委托代理理论认为CEO变更是由于代理人没有实现委托人对企业价值的预期,委托人以解除契约的形式来体现其约束机制的威力。为验证委托代理理论对CEO变更与企业价值关系的解释力,基于委托代理理论的两个前提假设,即委托代理关系的成立和企业价值低于股东的预期,构建CEO变更与企业价值关系的Logistic回归模型。选取2005年至2009年中国资本市场发生CEO变更、A股持续经营的上市公司样本,依据样本企业价值和企业性质的不同对Logistic回归模型进行分组检验。研究结果表明,企业价值水平较高时,股东对企业价值的预期通常能够得到满足,导致股东依据企业价值水平变更CEO的可能性较小;民营企业由于公司治理水平较低,CEO与股东之间的委托代理关系不一定成立,这两种情况均会降低委托代理理论对CEO变更与企业价值关系的解释能力,因此仅用委托代理理论来解释CEO变更与企业价值关系具有一定的局限性。     

基于中国上市公司的CEO更替与公司治理有效性研究

以中国上市公司为样本,采用2002～2005年的数据,从CEO更替的视角检验了中国公司治理的有效性.实证结果表明:中国的公司治理是有效的,即企业绩效差的CEO更可能被更换,但是这种有效性与正式制度安排的公司治理机制并不相关,这可能是非正式制度的公司治理机制发挥了重要作用.     

Explaining the Desire for Local Bargaining: Evidence from a Finnish Survey of Employers and Employees

Abstract. This paper describes divergences in employers’ and employees’ opinions on the proper share of local bargaining in contract wage gains in Finland. Employers want the locally bargained wage share to be approximately half of the total wage rise, while the majority of employees would prefer this share to be in the region of 1–24 per cent. Employers in firms that are large, foreign owned or operate in the financial services industry desire the largest locally bargained share of contract wages. Employees in large firms, on the other hand, resist local bargaining. When the firm uses performance‐related pay, employees would prefer a large role for local bargaining in contract wage gains.     

联盟信任与伙伴机会主义的关系研究——来自我国医院间联盟的证据

传统的交易成本理论认为,信任与机会主义负相关。但在战略联盟背景下,这种观点具有明显的局限性。首先,它只考虑了联盟成员间的善意信任,忽视了能力信任这一重要维度;其次,社会交易理论认为,(善意)信任具有阴暗面(dark sides),从而信任与机会主义之间并不总是线性关系。本文在社会交易理论的基础上,深入分析了善意信任及能力信任对伙伴机会主义的影响,并采用190份我国医院间联盟的数据进行了实证检验。结果表明,善意信任并不是越高越好,过高的善意信任会由于缺少监控而增加伙伴的机会主义行为,从而善意信任与机会主义之间呈现一种先降低后增加的U型关系;能力信任与机会主义之间负相关的假设没有获得通过。