Early Retirement in Italy: Recent Trends

Abstract. The analysis presented provides new statistical information on pensioners receiving seniority retirement benefits and highlights the positive effects of specific factors on their pension income. The statistical estimates suggest that work incentives are weak and steady job exits before the normal retirement age continue, especially for civil servants. In particular, since seniority benefits are based on a long contribution history, their corresponding level of pension income is high. This is not true for pensioners receiving old age benefits because of their incomplete work history.     

Social Concertation and Political System in Italy

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the social pact in Italy and its prospects for the future. In order to do this, it first gives an overview of the general political organization in Europe, and looks at neo corporatism and bargaining structures. It then deals with the social pact in Italy and follows its evolvement under non hostile or‘friendly’governments, and examines the objectives of this social pact. It continues by considering the problematics of governing the complex present day society and traces the various phases of the social pact in Italy, and in particular, the 'St. Valentine's Day’crisis and the subsequent continuity of the pact. Finally, it talks about some of the problems the social pact creates for the institutions.     

A Value Model for Evaluating Homeland Security Decisions

One of the most challenging tasks of homeland security policymakers is to allocate their limited resources to reduce terrorism risks cost effectively. To accomplish this task, it is useful to develop a comprehensive set of homeland security objectives, metrics to measure each objective, a utility function, and value tradeoffs relevant for making homeland security investments. Together, these elements form a homeland security value model. This article develops a homeland security value model based on literature reviews, a survey, and experience with building value models. The purposes of the article are to motivate the use of a value model for homeland security decision making and to illustrate its use to assess terrorism risks, assess the benefits of countermeasures, and develop a severity index for terrorism attacks.     

Social Security and Demographic Shocks

An overlapping generations model of social security with shocks to the productivity of labor and capital and demographic shocks is studied. We focus attention on stationary long run allocations. An allocation is interim optimal if there does not exist another feasible allocation that improves the expected welfare of all generations, computed conditionally on the state of the world when they are born. We characterize the set of interim optimal allocations and study the equilibria associated with various institutional forms of social security from the point of view of this optimality criterion. We obtain the analogs of the two traditional welfare theorems of microeconomic theory. Assume that there exists a financial asset in fixed quantity, which supports some (non null) intergenerational transfers. Then the rational expectations equilibrium allocation of this economy is interim optimal. Conversely, any stationary interim optimal allocation can be supported by such an equilibrium, with adequate lump sum transfers.     

The Stock Market Reaction to Investment Decisions: Evidence from Italy

Based on a study of new investment announcements from 1989 to 1995 by Italian firms listed on the Milan Stock Exchange, we find a positive stock price reaction to new investment decisions. The stock price reaction is larger for joint venture announcements. The market response is also larger for non-state owned companies and when the announcement is released in a period of rising stock prices. The announced investment has no impact on the non-voting shares but increases the voting shares' market price through a significant revaluation of their vote-segment. We find some evidence that new investments lead to management's private benefits rather than towards firm value. This is consistent with the typical Italian corporate governance structure, where a majority shareholder safely controls a listed company while having only a fractional claim on the firm's cash flows.     

Comparison as Incentive: Newsvendor Decisions in a Social Context

Explicit formal mechanisms dominate the discussion about incentives in Operations Management, yet many other mechanisms exist. Social comparison between peers may provide strong implicit incentives for individuals. Social comparison arises naturally in all social settings and may thus be unintended; however, many companies deliberately use it to motivate employees. In this study, we model a social context in which purchasers evaluate their performance relative to their peers; a feeling of inferiority results in a negative contribution to utility, whereas a feeling of superiority results in a positive contribution. We find that social comparison induces characteristic deviations from the newsvendor optimum ordering decision: if fear of inferiority outweighs anticipation of superiority, then purchasers herd together; the converse scenario incites actors to polarize away from each other. In both cases, actors will deviate from ordering the newsvendor optimum in order to satisfy social goals. Demand correlation and profit margins moderate the extent of the deviation.     

Sourcing Information Security Operations: The Role of Risk Interdependency and Competitive Externality in Outsourcing Decisions

Firms are increasingly outsourcing information security operations to managed security service providers (MSSPs). Cost reduction and quality (security) improvement are often mentioned as motives for outsourcing information security, and these are also the frequently cited reasons for outsourcing traditional information technology (IT) functions, such as software development and maintenance. In this study, we present a different explanation—one based on interdependent risks and competitive externalities associated with IT security—for firms' decisions to outsource security. We show that in the absence of competitive externalities and interdependent risks, a firm will outsource security if and only if the MSSP offers a quality advantage over in‐house operations, which is consistent with the conventional explanation for security outsourcing. However, when security risks are interdependent and breaches impose competitive externalities, although firms still have stronger incentive to outsource security if the MSSP offers a higher quality in terms of preventing breaches than in‐house management, a quality advantage of MSSP over in‐house management is neither a prerequisite for a firm to outsource security nor a guarantee that a firm will. In addition to MSSP quality, the type of externality (positive or negative), the degree of externality, whether outsourcing increases or decreases risk interdependency, and the breach characteristics determine firms' sourcing decisions. When security breaches impose a positive externality, the incentive to outsource is enhanced if the MSSP decreases the risk interdependency and diminished if the MSSP increases this interdependency. A negative externality has the opposite effect on firms' incentives to outsource. A high demand spillover to a competitor, together with a high loss in industry demand because of a security breach, enhances these incentives to outsource security operations when the externality is negative. Finally, we extend our base model in several dimensions and show that our main results regarding the impact of interdependent risks and competitive externalities on sourcing decisions are robust and generalizable to different specifications.     

股利政策的股东财富效应:来自中国股市的经验证据

国内现有文献关于上市公司股利政策的研究,主要集中在股利政策的信号传递理论、代理成本理论和影响因素三个方面,对上市公司通过股利分配实现股东高回报率的股东财富效应研究较少,而国外从税收政策变化和税负差异的角度研究股利政策财富效应并不适合中国的情况。为此,本文基于我国上市公司股权分置的特殊治理结构,以2003-2004年所有分配股利的上市公司为样本,实证检验了我国上市公司股利政策的股东财富效应。研究表明,分配现金股利使非流通股股东实现高回报率,流通股股东获得股票股利的较高短期收益率。     

The Role of Insurance in Managing Natural Hazard Risks: Private Versus Social Decisions

We explore the interaction between individual and collective decisions concerning natural hazards. Collective actions such as building a dam change the risks faced by private individuals. We show that, with proper incentives, individual reactions to such changes in risk can serve to enhance risk management by utilizing individual's decisions to take account of their specialized knowledge about their risk preferences and losses. We demonstrate that the efficient response to construction of a dam may be private actions that lead to a fully anticipated increase in flood damage. In such instances, zoning that focuses on reducing flood damage may lead to less efficient use of the flood plain. More generally, even where incentives for underinvestment in market insurance and self-insurance are present, constraining use of the flood plain by zoning will not generally lead to efficient outcomes. The model identifying conditions under which informed individuals have the incentives to make efficient decisions is powerful and directs attention toward more fruitful approaches.     

基于社会效益的BOT项目特许权期决策分析

以社会效益作为政府确定BOT项目特许权期的决策准则,对文献[8]所给出的S-L模型仅以政府的直接货币收益非负作为决策准则而存在的缺陷进行了修正,得到了基于社会效益的特许权期决策模型.修正后的模型考虑了不同项目在社会效益上的差异,为政府提供了与项目公司进行特许权期谈判的三个准则,这些准则能够在保证项目公司投资积极性的前提下,使项目实现最大的社会效益.最后以算例对修正后模型的可行性进行了验证.     

中、日社会养老保障制度的比较研究及启示

本文通过对中、日两国养老保障制度现状及特点的比较分析,从中归纳出主要的实践经验,并进一步提出建立适合中国国情的养老保障制度的思路,这对于完善我国社会保障体系,发展国家经济和维护社会稳定具有重要的现实意义。     

Decisions,judgement and style

This paper, one of a series which have already appeared in previous issues, focuses on the role of people, their judgments and their styles in the process of making and taking decisions concerning the future; that future and the decisions which will shape it being part of the complex strategic planning process. The author does not deal with decision analysis but concentrates his analysis upon the delicate balance which is maintained between what Sir Geoffrey Vickers calls ‘the art of judgement’ and the quantifiable elements of decision. The author rightly makes a distinction between decision-making: and decision-taking: this distinction accurately mirrors the long and often complex consultation process which occurs in almost all organizations before a decision is actually taken. The author's analysis concentrates upon the important effect which ‘judgement styles’ can have upon an organization and its planning process. Indeed, this paper suggests quite positively that judgment styles have an important and indeed crucial effect upon the view of the future which an organization will regard as preferable as well as influencing the manner in which the planning process will operate.     

Economic Fluctuations and Retirement of Older Employees

This paper studies the way in which labor market fluctuations affect the transition to early retirement among older employees in Sweden via the practice of negotiated pensions. The results indicate that downturns (upturns) in aggregated industry employment increases (decreases) the probability of early retirement. The results also suggest that the replacement levels immediately after early retirement are higher during declining and expanding industry employment. The results support an interpretation that (1) the employer and employee agreed on special early retirement pensions; and (2) that these were used in order to persuade older employees to quit voluntarily, but also that they worked to reward older employees.     

Skill Complementarities and Migration Decisions

This paper offers an explanation of the high mobility of skilled workers based on human capital complementarities. If the skill premium is increasing in the average level of human capital of a location, and there exist fixed migration costs, in equilibrium the more skilled the workers are, the stronger the economic incentives to migrate towards the richest regions will be. Moreover, endogenously generated differences in productivity due to migration affect occupational choices and regional specialization. Empirical evidence consistent with the proposed explanation is provided using data on Italian regions. It emerges that, even after controlling for economic conditions, a high population share of individuals who completed college or high‐school in a region seems to be a relevant pull factor for the most educated migrants. In contrast, the importance of this variable, which measures the average level of human capital of a location, drops when unskilled migrants are considered. Finally, the effects of migration on the evolution of regional disparities are taken into account.     

Global Maize Trade and Food Security: Implications from a Social Network Model

In this study, we developed a social network model of the global trade of maize: one of the most important food, feed, and industrial crops worldwide, and critical to food security. We used this model to analyze patterns of maize trade among nations, and to determine where vulnerabilities in food security might arise if maize availability was decreased due to factors such as diversion to nonfood uses, climatic factors, or plant diseases. Using data on imports and exports from the U.N. Commodity Trade Statistics Database for each year from 2000 to 2009 inclusive, we summarized statistics on volumes of maize trade between pairs of nations for 217 nations. There is evidence of market segregation among clusters of nations; with three prominent clusters representing Europe, Brazil and Argentina, and the United States. The United States is by far the largest exporter of maize worldwide, whereas Japan and the Republic of Korea are the largest maize importers. In particular, the star‐shaped cluster of the network that represents U.S. maize trade to other nations indicates the potential for food security risks because of the lack of trade these other nations conduct with other maize exporters. If a scenario arose in which U.S. maize could not be exported in as large quantities, maize supplies in many nations could be jeopardized. We discuss this in the context of recent maize ethanol production and its attendant impacts on food prices elsewhere worldwide.     

Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in Government Safety Decisions

Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) can be an effective tool to assess risks and uncertainties and to set priorities among safety policy options. Based on systems analysis and Bayesian probability, PRA has been applied to a wide range of cases, three of which are briefly presented here: the maintenance of the tiles of the space shuttle, the management of patient risk in anesthesia, and the choice of seismic provisions of building codes for the San Francisco Bay Area. In the quantification of a risk, a number of problems arise in the public sector where multiple stakeholders are involved. In this article, I describe different approaches to the treatments of uncertainties in risk analysis, their implications for risk ranking, and the role of risk analysis results in the context of a safety decision process. I also discuss the implications of adopting conservative hypotheses before proceeding to what is, in essence, a conditional uncertainty analysis, and I explore some implications of different levels of "conservatism" for the ranking of risk mitigation measures.     

邓小平与领导干部退休制度

废 除 领 导 干 部 职 务 终 身 制 ,建 立 退 休 制 度 ,是 邓 小 式 。1977年 ,邓 小 平 第 三次 出 来 工 作 后 ,在 解 决 了 党 的平 成 为 党 的 第 二 代 领 导 集 体 核 心 之 后 提 出 的 一 个 重 要 政 治 路线 和思 想 路线 后就 着 手解 决组 织 路线 问题 。邓 小主 张 。早 在 1977年,他在 重新 恢 复领 导 职 务 之时 ,就 提 平 感 到 ,现 在 我 们 国 家 面 临 的 一 个 严 重 问 题 ,不 是 四 个出 了 干几 年便 退下 来 的要 求。 现 代 化的 路线…     

Sales Force and Competition in Financial Product Markets: The Case of Mexico's Social Security Privatization

This paper examines how sales force impacts competition and equilibrium prices in the context of a privatized pension market. We use detailed administrative data on fund manager choices and worker characteristics at the inception of Mexico's privatized social security system, where fund managers had to set prices (management fees) at the national level, but could select sales force levels by local geographic areas. We develop and estimate a model of fund manager choice where sales force can increase or decrease customer price sensitivity. We find exposure to sales force lowered price sensitivity, leading to inelastic demand and high equilibrium fees. We simulate oft proposed policy solutions: a supply‐side policy with a competitive government player and a demand‐side policy that increases price elasticity. We find that demand‐side policies are necessary to foster competition in social safety net markets with large segments of inelastic consumers.     

Subordinate Participation in Audit Budgeting Decisions: A Comparison of Decisions Influenced by Organizational Factors to Decisions Conforming with the Vroom-Jago Model*

This study examines the role of subordinate participation in the effectiveness of audit hours budget decisions in accounting firms. The study compares decisions influenced by organizational factors (such as organizational policies or the preferences of the superior) to decisions that conform to the Vroom-Jago (VJ) model. Our results indicate that actual level of participation used in budget decisions appears to be based primarily on perceived preferences of superiors and participation styles available under the circumstancesof the individual audit. However, results also indicate that decisions consistent with the Vroom-Jago model are characterized by higher decision quality and increased subordinatedevelopment. Since managers are apparently reluctant to use decision styles that conflictwith organizational factors, accounting firms may wish to gather information regarding the attributes of the decision context and use the VJ model to establish their available decision styles and determine the preferences of superiors. Doing so has the advantage of considering decision-specific attributes while enhancing the probability of manager compliance with a desired decision style.