Constrained Efficiency in the Neoclassical Growth Model With Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Shocks

We investigate the welfare properties of the one‐sector neoclassical growth model with uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks. We focus on the notion of constrained efficiency used in the general equilibrium literature. Our characterization of constrained efficiency uses the first‐order condition of a constrained planner's problem. This condition highlights the margins of relevance for whether capital is too high or too low: the factor composition of income of the (consumption‐)poor. Using three calibrations commonly considered in the literature, we illustrate that there can be either over‐ or underaccumulation of capital in steady state and that the constrained optimum may or may not be consistent with a nondegenerate long‐run distribution of wealth. For the calibration that roughly matches the income and wealth distribution, the constrained inefficiency of the market outcome is rather striking: it has much too low a steady‐state capital stock.     

INCOME AND WEALTH CONCENTRATION IN SPAIN FROM A HISTORICAL AND FISCAL PERSPECTIVE

This paper presents series on top shares of income and wealth in Spain using personal income and wealth tax return statistics. Top income shares are highest in the 1930s, fall sharply during the first decade of the Franco dictatorship, then remain stable and low till the 1980s, and have increased since the mid 1990s. The top 0.01% income share in Spain estimated from income tax data is comparable to estimates for the United States and France over the period 1933–1971. Those findings, along with a careful analysis of all published tax statistics, suggest that income tax evasion and avoidance among top income earners in Spain was much less prevalent than previously thought. Wealth concentration has been about stable from 1982 to 2005 as surging real estate prices have benefited the middle class and compensated for a slight increase in financial wealth concentration in the 1990s. We use our wealth series and a simple model to analyze the effects of the wealth tax exemption of stocks for owners‐managers introduced in 1994. We show that the reform induced substantial shifting from the taxable to tax exempt status, hence creating efficiency costs. (JEL D31, H31, O15)     

Microsimulating the Evolution of Italian Pension Benefits: the Role of Retirement Choices and Lowest Pensions Indexing

A few years after the introduction of the Amato and Dini laws, a renewed debate on reforming the Italian pension system and on modifying its structure and technical parameters is taking place. The present work simulates individual reactions to systemic changes, distinguishing among the different typologies of workers the categories of dependent (private and public) and self‐employed ones. This approach allows us to perform a general micro‐analysis of the effects of past reforms on family pension income distribution and average individual pension benefits. Furthermore, it makes it possible to assess the consequences of legislator's choices such as the indexation of the lowest pensions (‘assegni sociali’ and ‘pensioni integrate al minimo’) to wages or to inflation. Finally, a Monte Carlo analysis projects future inequality and poverty trends with a remarkable accuracy and allows to verify the robustness of our results.     

LABOR‐ AND CAPITAL‐AUGMENTING TECHNICAL CHANGE

I analyze an economy in which firms can undertake both labor‐ and capital‐augmenting technological improvements. In the long run, the economy resembles the standard growth model with purely labor‐augmenting technical change, and the share of labor in GDP is constant. Along the transition path, however, there is capital‐augmenting technical change and factor shares change. Tax policy and changes in labor supply or savings typically change factor shares in the short run, but have no or little effect on the long‐run factor distribution of income. (JEL: O33, O14, O31, E25)     

Expert Elicitation of the Value per Statistical Life in an Air Pollution Context

The monetized value of avoided premature mortality typically dominates the calculated benefits of air pollution regulations; therefore, characterization of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates is key to good policymaking. Formal expert judgment elicitation methods are one means of characterizing this uncertainty. They have been applied to characterize uncertainty in the mortality concentration‐response function, but have yet to be used to characterize uncertainty in the economic values placed on avoided mortality. We report the findings of a pilot expert judgment study for Health Canada designed to elicit quantitative probabilistic judgments of uncertainties in Value‐per‐Statistical‐Life (VSL) estimates for use in an air pollution context. The two‐stage elicitation addressed uncertainties in both a base case VSL for a reduction in mortality risk from traumatic accidents and in benefits transfer‐related adjustments to the base case for an air quality application (e.g., adjustments for age, income, and health status). Results for each expert were integrated to develop example quantitative probabilistic uncertainty distributions for VSL that could be incorporated into air quality models.     

Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast

What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents’ perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate‐related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15‐ and 19‐year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15‐ and 19‐year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, “seeing is not believing.” Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions—rather than objectively measured weather conditions—influence climate‐related attitudes.     

THE IMPACT OF INCOME SHOCKS ON HEALTH: EVIDENCE FROM COHORT DATA

We study the effect of permanent income innovations on health for a prime‐aged population. Using information on more than half a million individuals sampled over a 25‐year period in three different cross‐sectional surveys we aggregate data by date‐of‐birth cohort to construct a “synthetic cohort” data set with details of income, expenditure, socio‐demographic factors, health outcomes, and selected risk factors. We then exploit structural and arguably exogenous changes in cohort incomes over the 1980s and 1990s to uncover causal effects of permanent income shocks on health. We find that such income innovations have little effect on a wide range of health measures, but do lead to increases in mortality and risky health behaviour. (JEL: I10, D31)     

THE WELL‐BEING OF THE ELDERLY AND WAGE ARREARS IN RUSSIA

About one‐third of households with elderly were not paid their wages during the mid‐1990s in Russia. Applying matching estimations to a nationally representative survey, the study shows that wage arrears had detrimental effects on the well‐being of the elderly in these families. Salaries in households with wage arrears dropped by almost two‐thirds, income fell by more than one‐third, and poverty doubled. Behavioral responses were only partly effective. The net revenue loss amounted to five‐sixths of the wage shock for men, and nine‐tenths of the wage shock for women. The elderly cut back on food expenses by reducing food purchases and adjusting their diet towards cheaper calories, economising on expenses equal to around one‐quarter of the wage reduction. Caloric and protein intakes dropped, although less than income, and the nutritional content of food consumption with regard to vitamins and minerals deteriorated. Wage arrears worsened male health more than female health, even though the decline in income was comparable. Functional limitations rose by 8% for men and 3% for women, and self‐rated health declined by 2.5% for men and 0.5% for women. Old‐age men with arrears were almost twice as likely to die before the next survey round, and functional limitations of surviving men rose by more than 10%. By contrast, there was no impact on the next round's health status of old‐age women. A rich data set is used to discount alternative explanations, including feedback from health to income, other economic factors, health service access, health behavior, and environmental conditions. (JEL: I12, I30, J14, J30)     

On the Relation Between Trust and Fairness in Environmental Risk Management

In this study, we empirically examine the relations between trust, fairness, and cooperation within two environmental risk management contexts, one in which the focal issue is of high personal moral importance and the other in which the focal issue is of low moral importance. Using an experimental design embedded in two parallel survey questionnaires, one mailed to residents of Washington State, the other to German‐speaking residents of Switzerland, we either manipulated or constructed three factors, issue importance (high/low), procedural fairness (fair/unfair), and policy outcome (risk averse/risk accepting). This design enabled us to compare the predictions of the standard account of procedural fairness, that trust and cooperation are determined by judgments of fairness, with the predictions of an alternative account, that trust and cooperation will be determined by judgments of procedural fairness only when the issue involved is not morally important. Results for the American case showed that under conditions of high issue importance, policy outcome affected judged fairness, trust, and cooperation. Under conditions of low issue importance, policy outcome had no effect on judged fairness or trust but did have a moderate impact on cooperation. Analyses also showed that when issue importance was high, procedural fairness had no effects. When issue importance was low, procedural fairness had moderate effects on judged fairness and trust. Results for the Swiss case replicated the main findings for the American case. Together, these results support the alternative model of the relation between trust and fairness, suggesting that the efficacy of fair procedures is strictly limited.     

个人账户与个人所得税激励联动对养老金替代率的影响

本文针对养老保险资金来源不足问题,提出了将一部分个人所得税转入到养老保险个人账户的思路,既弥补养老保险缴费不足,又可提高人们缴纳个人所得税积极性,且有助于机关事业单位养老保险改革试点方案的顺利实施。并在此思路上针对现行的企业养老保险计发办法上建立了精算模型,比较分析了个人所得税转入与不转入养老金个人账户情形下不同工资水平及其增长率、不同的基金累积利率、不同的退休年龄对个人账户养老保险水平的影响。     

A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing

I study asset prices in a two‐agent macroeconomic model with two key features: limited stock market participation and heterogeneity in the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption (EIS). The model is consistent with some prominent features of asset prices, such as a high equity premium, relatively smooth interest rates, procyclical stock prices, and countercyclical variation in the equity premium, its volatility, and in the Sharpe ratio. In this model, the risk‐free asset market plays a central role by allowing non‐stockholders (with low EIS) to smooth the fluctuations in their labor income. This process concentrates non‐stockholders' labor income risk among a small group of stockholders, who then demand a high premium for bearing the aggregate equity risk. Furthermore, this mechanism is consistent with the very small share of aggregate wealth held by non‐stockholders in the U.S. data, which has proved problematic for previous models with limited participation. I show that this large wealth inequality is also important for the model's ability to generate a countercyclical equity premium. When it comes to business cycle performance, the model's progress has been more limited: consumption is still too volatile compared to the data, whereas investment is still too smooth. These are important areas for potential improvement in this framework.     

A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments

A wide body of empirical evidence finds that approximately 25 percent of fiscal stimulus payments (e.g., tax rebates) are spent on nondurable household consumption in the quarter that they are received. To interpret this fact, we develop a structural economic model where households can hold two assets: a low‐return liquid asset (e.g., cash, checking account) and a high‐return illiquid asset that carries a transaction cost (e.g., housing, retirement account). The optimal life‐cycle pattern of portfolio choice implies that many households in the model are “wealthy hand‐to‐mouth”: they hold little or no liquid wealth despite owning sizable quantities of illiquid assets. Therefore, they display large propensities to consume out of additional transitory income, and small propensities to consume out of news about future income. We document the existence of such households in data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. A version of the model parameterized to the 2001 tax rebate episode yields consumption responses to fiscal stimulus payments that are in line with the evidence, and an order of magnitude larger than in the standard “one‐asset” framework. The model's nonlinearities with respect to the rebate size and the prevailing aggregate economic conditions have implications for policy design.     

The Distribution of Wealth and Fiscal Policy in Economies With Finitely Lived Agents

We study the dynamics of the distribution of wealth in an overlapping generation economy with finitely lived agents and intergenerational transmission of wealth. Financial markets are incomplete, exposing agents to both labor and capital income risk. We show that the stationary wealth distribution is a Pareto distribution in the right tail and that it is capital income risk, rather than labor income, that drives the properties of the right tail of the wealth distribution. We also study analytically the dependence of the distribution of wealth—of wealth inequality in particular—on various fiscal policy instruments like capital income taxes and estate taxes, and on different degrees of social mobility. We show that capital income and estate taxes can significantly reduce wealth inequality, as do institutions favoring social mobility. Finally, we calibrate the economy to match the Lorenz curve of the wealth distribution of the U.S. economy.     

INSTITUTION‐INDUCED PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES AND PATTERNS OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS

This paper studies theoretically how the cross‐country differences in the institutional quality (IQ) of domestic credit markets shape the patterns of international capital flows when such IQ differences also cause productivity differences across countries. IQ affects productivity by changing productivity–agency‐cost trade‐offs across heterogeneous investment projects. Such institution‐induced productivity differences are shown to have effects on the investment and capital flows that are opposite of exogenous productivity differences. This implies that the overall effect of IQ could generate U‐shaped responses of the investment and capital flows. Among other things, this means that capital could flow from middle‐income countries to both low‐income and high‐income countries, and that, starting from a very low IQ, a country could experience both a growth and a current account surplus after a successful institutional reform. More generally, the results here provide some cautions when interpreting the empirical evidence on the role of productivity differences and institutional differences on capital flows. It also calls into question the validity of treating the degree of financial frictions as a proxy for the quality of financial institutions, as commonly done in the literature.     

The Gender Wage Gap in the Turkish Labor Market

Abstract. This paper examines the sources of the gender wage gap in the Turkish labor market by using matched employer–employee data and the standard wage regression estimations as well as the Oaxaca decomposition method. The extensive number of variables in the data set enables a thorough quantitative analysis of the role of various individual‐ as well as firm‐related factors leading to wage differentials between men and women, namely human capital endowments including job tenure, occupational and industrial segregation, private/public sector location, coverage of the workplace under collective labor bargaining, and firm size. It also examines the extent of gender‐based industry and occupational segregation within the confines of data set and computes the Duncan & Duncan segregation index. We find that a large portion of the gender wage gap is attributable to women's considerably lower levels of work experience and job tenure. Other important variables that lead to pay differentials are women's lower concentration in jobs covered by collective labor bargaining and a substantial degree of occupational and industrial segregation. The differential rates of return to many of the wage determinant variables are also found to be significant in the formation of the gender wage gap.     

Consumption Over the Life Cycle

This paper estimates a structural model of optimal life‐cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labor income uncertainty. We employ synthetic cohort techniques and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age‐profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. The model fits the profiles quite well. In addition to providing reasonable estimates of the discount rate and risk aversion, we find that consumer behavior changes strikingly over the life cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer‐stock agents. Around age 40, the typical household starts accumulating liquid assets for retirement and its behavior mimics more closely that of a certainty equivalent consumer. Our methodology provides a natural decomposition of saving and wealth into its precautionary and life‐cycle components.     

基于精算模型参数调整的农村养老金可持续性仿真研究

随着人口老龄化进程加剧和新型农村社会养老保险制度全面覆盖,农村老年人群与养老需求激增,农村养老金收支失衡与不可持续风险快速加大。本文基于新农保筹资和给付的双重视角,应用总体法构建农村养老金收支与平衡精算模型,基于全国东、中、西部三省六县(市、区)新农保试点地区实地调研数据(有效问卷5031份),通过甄选并调整关键参数,预测农村养老金收支及差额变化与发展趋势,对其可持续性进行仿真研究,针对预测结果提出增强农村养老金可持续性的改革思路。研究结果表明,政策参数缴费率、补贴率和经济参数农民收入增长率、基金投资收益率的提高及其联动增长均有利于增强农村养老金的可持续性,而养老金计发月数的增减对农村养老金可持续性的影响方向并不统一,二者的联合增长对农村养老金的长期可持续性发展具有积极作用。本研究对于丰富、发展农村养老金精算建模与仿真理论、方法及农村社会保障制度完善、政策改进具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。     

Risk Mitigation Benefit from Backup Suppliers in the Presence of the Horizontal Fairness Concern

The backup supply strategy is demonstrated as an effective approach to mitigating supply risk. We study a supply chain in which a leader manufacturer designs a contract to a potential backup supplier to mitigate the yield uncertainty of the primary supplier. In this context, the backup supplier may compare with the primary supplier and have horizontal fairness concerns. We model the contract design problem using a Stackelberg game and characterize the optimal decisions for the manufacturer and backup supplier, in both fairness and off‐fairness settings. The theoretical results show that the leader manufacturer must sacrifice his own payoff to balance the payoffs of both suppliers. As a result, using a self‐interested backup supplier is the dominating strategy, whereas using a fair‐minded backup supplier is only suggested when the reliability of the primary supplier is low and the fairness concern of the backup supplier is not strong. Additionally, the backup supplier only benefits from fairness concerns when the level is not exceeding a threshold value. With regard to high fairness levels beyond this threshold, fairness concern has negative effects on the monetary payoff and even might lead to loss of the business. By conducting laboratory experiments, we provide evidence of the horizontal fairness concern from the backup supplier. Further, we show that if the primary supplier also has horizontal fairness concerns, the leader manufacturer can conditionally benefit from a promoted yield reliability due to an extra effort from the primary supplier.     

From Welfare to Work: Evaluating a Tax and Benefit Reform Targeted at Single Mothers in Sweden

Abstract. In this paper we evaluate a hypothetical tax and benefit reform to increase the working hours and to decrease welfare participation of single mothers in Sweden. We formulate and estimate simultaneously a structural static model of labor supply and welfare participation. The results suggest that labor supply among single mother households in Sweden is quite elastic, and that there is self‐selection into welfare. We also find that the proposed reform would generate welfare gains for virtually everyone in the sample, benefit low‐income households, and would at the same time generate a small revenue surplus.