EMPLOYMENT AND OUTPUT EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING: IS GOVERNMENT SIZE IMPORTANT?

The efects of government spending on employment and output may depend on government size and the persistence of spending. The empirical results suggest that permanent (or persistent) changes in government consumption have a greater impact on output and employment than temporary (or cyclical) changes. This implies a negative wealth effect and reduces the stabilization potency of government spending. The findings also support the hypothesis that the output elasticity of government consumption is positive but declines with increases in government size. Using the estimated equations, I calculate the optimal government size for the representative country as around 20 percent of GDP.     

ARE GOVERNMENT BONDS NET WEALTH? EVIDENCE FOR THE UNITED STATES

This paper investigates whether government bonds are viewed as net wealth. If they are, the nominal interest rate in steady-state equilibrium should be an increasing function of the government debt and of government spending. Using forward interest rates realized during World War II, this paper finds no evidence of such a relationship. These data afford an especially powerful test because the federal debt rose from 29 to 106 percent of trend output during the war. This enormous increase in government debt actually appears to have reduced forward interest rates by a statistically significant, but small, amount.     

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND INTEREST RATES: A MACROECONOMIC APPROACH TO THE TERM STRUCTURE

This paper develops a model in which the term-structure of interest rates obtains as an equilibrium outcome of the interactions of firms, households and rationally informed speculators. Exogenous disturbances whose impact effects fall only in the market for short-term bonds generate equilibrium movements in the yield on long-term bonds and the level of investment spending. In the case of risk-averse speculators, a purely transitory, unanticipated shock to the money supply generates a long distributed-lag effect on the level of aggregate demand.     

TAX RATES AND LABOR SUPPLY IN FISCAL EQUILIBRIUM

A central tenet of supply-side economics is that a balanced-budget reduction in the marginal tax rate on wage income increases aggregate labor supply. In contrast, the orthodox Keynesian analysis concludes that the relationship between tax rates and the economy-wide supply of labor is theoretically ambiguous. Our analysis of a general model reveals that these two propositions are associated, respectively, with the special assumptions of "compensated independence" and "ordinary independence" between leisure and public spending.     

A TEST OF STEADY-STATE GOVERNMENT-DEBT NEUTRALITY

This paper investigates whether in the steady state the real interest rate is an increasing function of both the government debt and government spending. Using data from the period between January 1981 and March 1986, the paper fin& no evidence of such a relationship. These data afford an especially powerful test because the ratio of federal debt to trend output, which had fallen from 93 to 33 percent between January 1948 and December 1980, reversed course after the enactment of the Economic Recovery Tax Act, reaching 47 percent in March 1986.     

对我国利率市场化改革的思考

利率市场化是过去几年、并将是未来一段时期我国金融市场发展的主线之一。所谓利率市场化,就是建立起以供求为基础的利率市场化决定机制,进而引导金融资源合理配置。我国利率市场化改革是一个逐步实现并不断完善的过程。不同程度的利率市场化,其要求的条件并不完全相同。利率市场化越深入,其对配套改革的要求就越严格。利率市场化的条件实现,既是资金市场运行环境的真实转变,也是伴随利率市场化逐步成熟完善的过程。     

Temporary and illegal labour migration: the Israeli experience

In recent years, Israel has become a major recipient of documented and undocumented temporary labour migrants from many countries outside the Middle East region. The purposes of this article are to describe Israel's experience of temporary labour migration and its concomitant, illegal labour migration; and also to explore what her policies on temporary labour migration indicate about the nature of the policy-making process in this policy domain in Israel.
To these ends the article traces the evolution of temporary labour migration – legal and illegal – and recent policy initiatives of the Israeli government. It then considers some of the major conceptions of the policy-making process found in public policy literature. The article concludes by pointing to the uniqueness of Israel's experience of temporary labour migration and to the fact that her policies have been overwhelmingly reactive – inadequately considered, ill-conceived, ambivalent in relation to their ultimate purpose and, in the course of implementation, vulnerable to "privatization" (being taken over by vested interest groups).
Analysis of the most recent policy initiatives designed to reduce the number of legal labour migrants and address the problem of illegal labour migrants, reflect a policy-making process that is not followed by commensurate action.     

FISCAL POLICY AND LENDING RELATIONSHIPS

This paper studies how fiscal policy affects loan market conditions in the United States. First, it conducts a structural vector‐autoregression analysis showing that the bank spread responds negatively to an expansionary government spending shock, while lending increases. Second, it illustrates that these results are mimicked by a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where the bank spread is endogenized via the inclusion of a banking sector exploiting lending relationships. Third, it shows that lending relationships represent a friction that generates a financial accelerator effect in the transmission of the fiscal shock. (JEL E44, E62)     

Macroeconomic policy tools to finance gender equality

Feminist economists and heterodox macroeconomists have contributed substantively to the body of research that explores the distributional effects of macro policies. This work explicitly addresses the livelihood problems created by neoliberalism and, in addition, it provides a pathway for identifying financing mechanisms. Building on earlier work by Seguino and Grown (2006), this article synthesizes and elaborates the major contributions of this body of gender and macro research and, from this, extrapolates macro‐level policies and tools that support gender equality. Among the tools identified is targeted government spending on physical and social infrastructure, the latter a relatively new conceptual tool that is discussed in detail. A key argument is that financing for gender equality that raises economy‐wide productivity can be self‐sustaining. As a result, both physical and social infrastructure spending have the ability to create fiscal space. This possibility offers a financing framework for gender equality expenditures. A contribution of this article is to critique mainstream monetary policies and identify alternative approaches that expand the toolkit to achieve gender equality goals.     

TAX EFFECTS VERSUS BUDGET EFFECTS ON LABOR SUPPLY

This paper analyzes the effects on labor supply of parallel changes in taxes and public spending of various types. A number of important recent developments in the labor supply behavior of households are highlighted by such a study of various types of "budget effects," rather than isolated "tax effects." This comes out in particular when considering cross substitution effects on labor supply of changes in public spending on goods and services or of the subsidization of goods and services provided by private markets. Moreover, the income effects of tax changes are often mitigated, or possibly even removed, by the income effects of the accompanying expenditure changes.     

DEVIATIONS FROM CONSTITUENT INTERESTS: THE ROLE OF LEGISLATIVE STRUCTURE AND POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE STATES

This paper investigates the determinants of state spending over 1960—1990. Recent empirical studies suggest that state government expenditure is greater than the electorate desires. Our main finding is that expenditure was positively related to the number of seats in a state's legislature. This is consistent with the hypothesis that logrolling leads representatives to spend more than their constituents would like. We also find that political parties do not have a pronounced effect on overall levels of expenditure, but do influence the composition of spending. In particular, Democratic control of state government is associated with higher levels of welfare spending.     

Breaking barriers—provision and participation in an out‐of‐school centre

This paper uses a research and development project – the A Space project in Hackney – as an exemplar for discussion of policy and practice issues arising from the recent expansion of out‐of‐school child care and study support services. In particular, the authors explore children's participation rights and multi‐agency working, two key principles upon which A Space is based. The paper suggests that current government out‐of‐school policy raises key questions about the siting, staffing, coordination and costs of future services; and that underlying these are more fundamental questions about: how children should be spending their time; and whose perspectives on this should be taken into account. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF CAMPAIGN SPENDING: THE ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT JACKPOT

To raise money for their campaigns, political candidates auction a part of government wealth (the jackpot) to contributors. The larger the jackpot, the more candidates spend. Data on the gubernatorial races of 1978 and 1986 indicate that (1) for every dollar increase in the per capita jackpot, campaign spending rises by 0.0004 cents per voter, (2) balanced budget laws hinder the candidate's ability to raise money, (3) in states that give the governor more power over the budget (measured by a "Schlesinger" index) candidates raise more. The paper emphasizes that candidates willingly limit their spending to avoid indebtedness to contributors.     

Race,Class, and Support for the Welfare State*

Two competing approaches to the study of African Americans—the race and class perspectives—have dominated attempts to explain their views on contemporary issues. To examine the race versus class debate, this study uses African Americans' views on government spending for five social welfare concerns: (1) improving and protecting the nation's health, (2) solving the problems of big cities, (3) halting rising crime rates, (4) dealing with drug addiction, and (5) improving the nation's education system. Data from the 1972–1990 General Social Surveys are used to compare middle-class blacks with both working-class blacks and whites and middle-class whites in terms of their support for government spending for those five social welfare issues. Examining group means, we found no significant difference between the two black classes but a significant difference between the black middle class and the white middle class on support for government spending in all areas except halting the rising crime rates (where there were no significant differences among the four groups). Similarly, using logistic regression analysis we found that race continued to have a significant effect on support for spending even after controlling for class, year, age, gender, education, income, and occupational prestige. In respect to social welfare spending, the results indicate support for the race, as opposed to the class, perspective; that is, race is better than class for predicting African American attitudes on government spending.     

A CLARIFICATION OF THE EXCESS DEMAND FOR OR EXCESS SUPPLY OF MONEY

One of the most misunderstood and neglected concepts in all of economics is the notion that money may be in excess supply or excess demand. The article presents several reasons why monetary disequilibrium would indeed persist, including the fact that no "money market" exists with a single price which would clear that market. Contrary to the claims of several leading textbooks, the article explains why changes in the interest rate would not immediately eliminate an excess supply of or demand for money.     

IS THE BUDGET DEFICIT “TOO LARGE?”

Yes. Specifically, we find that recent spending and taxing policies of the government–if continued–violate the government's intertemporal budget constraint. As a result, government spending must be reduced and/or tax revenues must be increased. These conclusions are based on tests of whether government spending and revenue are cointegrated. In addition to examining real spending and revenue, we also normalize these variables by real GNP and population. For a growing economy, these normalized measures are perhaps more pertinent. We also test and find support for the hypothesis that deficits have become a problem only in recent years.     

Public relations and lobbying: New legislation in Slovenia

This article reviews lobbying in the political sciences and public relations literature, and it also provides a conceptualization for the regulatory practices of lobbying around the world. Then, it presents the newest law on lobbying instituted in 2010 in the Republic of Slovenia, the Integrity and Prevention of Corruption Act. This Act treats lobbying in two ways: (1) as a communication technique used by interest groups to privately influence government officials and (2) as a process of access to information by the same interest groups. This inconsistency follows the same trend for lobbying regulation in Europe and raises important questions regarding lobbying practice and regulation. Lobbying is fundamentally a public relations practice exercised in private and public sectors, and it uses direct and indirect communication between interest groups and their respective government.     

FRIEDMAN TAX CUTS VS. BUCHANAN DEFICIT REDUCTION AS THE BEST WAY OF CONSTRAINING GOVERNMENT

Does a tax cut reduce government spending by reducing government revenue or does it increase government spending by lowering the perceived price of government services? Some economists, including Milton Friedman, take the former position, while others, including James Buchanan, think the latter is true. The question seems to resist an empirical answer, with some studies supporting Friedman's view and others supporting Buchanan's. In this paper, each position is shown to be a special case in a simple model of taxation and deficit determination.     

Self-Rated Health and Attitudes About U.S. Health Care Policy

How does one’s own health influence attitudes about national health care policy? Previous research has documented a reliable (though bounded) role of personal interest in shaping policy preferences, but little is known about the role that personal health plays in shaping these attitudes. Using recent General Social Survey data, we find that those with poorer self-rated health were more likely to endorse a strong role for government in providing health care, and more likely to endorse increased spending on health care. Further analysis suggested that this relationship was moderated by political ideology. Implications for better understanding the source of health policy support are discussed.     

ASYMMETRY IN THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING SHOCKS: CONTRASTING EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS

Using quarterly data for the United States, demand contraction exceeds expansion in the face of monetary and government spending shocks. Demand contraction in the face of government spending shocks, is absorbed in nominal wage and price deflation. The variability of government spending shocks decreases average wage and price inflation. In contrast, the upward flexibility of price appears in sharp contrast to its downward rigidity in the face of monetary shocks. Furthermore, output contraction is notably larger relative to expansion in the face of monetary shocks. Monetary variability accelerates average price inflation and decreases average output and real wage growth.