实施消费启动的需求障碍和供给障碍

为遏制经济增长持续下滑的势头 ,1998年国家采取了扩大内需、启动经济增长的措施 ,在实施一定程度的投资启动的同时 ,今年又将消费启动放在了主要位置上 ,这对于解决当前供给过剩和消费不足的矛盾无疑是理性的选择。但是 ,在我国目前的消费市场条件下 ,实施消费启动并非人们想象的那么简单 ,必将会遇到很多问题与障碍。对此应给予足够的认识 ,进行广泛的研究。以下将从需求和供给两个方面加以探讨。一、需求障碍消费不足是受居民收入水平的限制。显然 ,增加居民收入是消费启动的根本前提。但是 ,究竟需要多大的收入增幅才能达到刺激消费的预…     

广东要努力寻求新市场

一、我们的新市场在哪里当前，广东省宏观经济活动面临的主要问题是市场需求不足。具体地说，就是投资需求、消费需求和出口均受到不同因素的制约。消费需求主要受收入的制约，在收入的改变量不大的情况下，消费品市场不会出现根本的转机。由于消费需求不足，企业投资的预期利润率势必递减，投资处于低位状态。政府出面进行公共工程投资，是缓解投资不足的有效方法。但是，这个方法并不能促进消费需求增加。经济理论证明，对经济增长的贡献而言，消费需求更为重要，目前，消费需求的贡献率是投资需求的贡献率的2．2倍。因此，扩大消费需求是…     

我国居民消费需求不足的成因分析与政策选择

消费需求不足对我国经济的全面协调可持续发展有着不利的影响.消费需求不足的重点在于居民消费需求不足,其根源在于收入分配体制的不合理导致的收入分配差距过大,以及收入分配调节机制的不健全.提高居民消费需求,需要借鉴国外收入调节政策的经验,科学地实施收入分配调节政策,加大公共支出投入和社会保障制度的建设力度.     

论提高农民消费水平是中国经济增长的根本动力

目前我国经济增长过分依赖出口和投资的拉动,消费对经济增长的拉动作用不足.而出口的拉动作用潜力有限,投资的拉动作用则需要消费来支撑,因此,消费需求不足尤其是农民消费需求不足就成为我国经济增长的最大症结.这种状况决定了提高农民消费水平应成为拉动我国经济增长的根本动力.而要提高农民消费水平.关键在于破解制约农民消费的"资金瓶颈"、"硬件瓶颈"和"软件瓶颈".     

马克思两大部类投资双线性模型的考察

一、引言 当前,为应对全球性金融危机导致的需求不足,我国政府出台了十大拉动内需的救市措施.内需主要包括消费需求、投资需求和政府支出.就投资需求而言,有两个投向:一是投于第一部类,即投资于生产生产资料的部门,二是投资于第二部类,即投资于生产消费资料部门.可见,总投资如何在两大部类之间进行分配从而使国民经济总投资效益最大化的问题,是当前扩大内需过程中亟需解决的问题.     

对积极财政政策的几点认识

亚洲金融危机以来特别是日元的大幅贬值造成了国外需求不足，而国内需求一方面由于养老、教育、购房、医疗等预期支出的增加和下岗等直接引起的现期收入锐减，使得居民边际消费倾向有所减弱，而边际储蓄倾向有所增加，这一增一减使得消费需求明显不足，另一方面由于市场主体预算约束的硬化、风险意识的增强以及预期利润率低，从而使得投资需求不足，两方面的因素使得国内有效需求不足。而1998、1999连续两年实施积极的财政政策效果显著，表现在：一是注重发挥税收优惠政策，引导和带动企业、社会和民间投资，扩大了内需，增加了就业岗位，拉…     

论中国社会养老的根本问题、原因与举措

当前中国社会养老面临的根本问题是支付水平无法满足成本的需要,主要表现为政府财政投入和老年人支付能力不足。根本原因一是建国以来我国高积累、低消费的国民收入分配思路和实践,二是对社会养老福利性的认识不足。根本出路在于:从根本上扭转国民收入分配思路和格局,切实不断提高劳动者收入和社会保障水平;加强对老年人社会福利的精准设计,确保社会养老支付水平不低于成本需要。     

黑龙江省经济增长的绩效与协整分析:总需求研究

文章在宏观经济理论基础上通过对黑龙江省总需求的理论、逻辑描述和计量经济学的实证分析,表明当黑龙江省的消费每增加1%,则黑龙江省的GDP相应增加0.88%;当黑龙江省的固定资产投资每增加1%,则黑龙江省的GDP相应增加1.8%,固定资产投资对黑龙江省经济增长的贡献是消费对黑龙江省经济增长贡献的两倍还多。在影响黑龙江省经济增长的三个因素中,出口暂时对黑龙江省的经济增长影响不大,固定资产投资对黑龙江省的经济增长影响最大,其次是消费。     

买方市场条件下的中国经济增长点初探

20世纪90年代中期，中国经济开始进入买方市场格局，国内需求特点相应发生了变化，内需不足成为经济裹足不前的重要原因，因此，从消费、投资、净出口三个最终需求方面对经济的拉动作用进行分析，探索影响其变化的原因及其变化规律，找出能够拉动中国经济的增长点是必要和可行的。     

人民币汇率走势的实证分析

影响汇率有三个指标:外国直接投资,贸易依存度和消费价格指数利用ADF检验、协整检验和误差修正模型进行实证分析,在我国经济环境下:人民币升值是合理的;浮动汇率的实施基本是合理的;但政策往往是有滞后性的,我国当前实行的浮动汇率仍处于过渡时期。     

Reserve financing and government infrastructure investment: An application to China

This paper proposes a novel financing scheme, reserve financing, for government infrastructure investment in China. A two-sector open economy model explores the consequences and policy implications of a surge in infrastructure investment financed by international reserves. The results show that reserve financing, coupled with a managed float exchange rate system, can maintain the country's fast growth rate while mitigating fiscal pressure on local governments. Productive infrastructure capital stimulates domestic demand, reducing the country's dependence on exports. To promote growth and maintain price stability, three factors are critical: return on infrastructure, swift fiscal adjustment, and rapid infrastructure financing.     

改革开放以来北京市的投融资体制研究

改革开放以来,在中国城市投融资体制转轨背景下,北京市以国有资本为主的投融资体制,在市场化的推动下逐步形成了多元化的投资环境。政府主导的市场化投融资体制之间形成了以下关系:一是政府投资和市场化运作之间存在显著正相关性;二是民间资本和外资成为新的投资与运营主体;三是投资主体多元化和融资渠道商业化,加快了城市发展的进程。     

论我国民营经济金融服务体系的构建

民营经济是国民经济的四大经济支柱之一。近年来,虽然民营经济的融资环境有了较大的改进,融资规模和融资能力有了较大的提高,但是融资难的问题依然是困扰民营经济发展的首要问题。应围绕构建多层次、多样化的金融机构体系,建立和完善多层次的资本市场体系,不断培育和发展新型融资方式体系,建立和完善民营经济的信用和担保体系等环节,构建起民营经济金融服务体系。     

The potential impact of introducing a social security system in the State of Palestine: A computable general equilibrium approach

This article assesses the potential impact for the State of Palestine (West Bank and Gaza) of enforcing the enactment of the currently suspended Social Security Law (No. 19 of 2016). Using a computable general equilibrium model, we simulate different scenarios associated with the enactment of the social security system on key macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, private consumption, government spending, investment and employment, for the period 2020–2030. We evaluate the influence on the economy of introducing a social security system for private-sector workers, as set out in the 2016 law, and compare the simulation results of each scenario to the baseline. In each scenario, we consider different options concerning severance payment duration and different options for the investment strategy of social security contributions. However, for employees in Gaza, the article does not consider severance payments due to economic difficulties and the Israeli closure policy.     

优化公交体制 提高服务质量

通过分析研究国内外公交行业体制改革的进程,认为公交行业不应再在"国退民进"和"国进民退"中反复折腾,而要把多种体制成分共存作为一种政策,通过体制改革引进市场机制来取代原来的政治干预,坚持政府主导,通过特许经营等形式进行经营管理,建立更加便民的公交服务,营造一个更加和谐的社会。     

市场经济障碍性因素透视

改革开放使我国确立了市场经济体制,并且取得了举世瞩目的伟大成就。目前存在的主要问题是计划经济的传统桎梏依然存在,审批经济尚在流行,民营经济的市场准入空间不足。促进市场深化,扩大民营范围,缩小南北差距,打破传统的国家垄断和行业垄断的界限,是摆在我们面前的重要历史任务。     

Macroeconomic effects of public investment in South-East Europe

This paper provides the first cross-country study of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in South-East Europe. For these countries, we construct a unique dataset of exogenous changes in public investment and use them with Jordá (2005) local projections method to estimate their dynamic effects on the main macroeconomic aggregates, the unemployment rate and debt-to-GDP ratio. Our results show significant multiplicative effects of public investment on GDP, delivered primarily through crowding in of private investment. Our analysis confirms that public investment can be seen as a catalyst of positive spillover effects to other sectors of the economy and thus contribute to productivity growth.     

The political economy of U.S. economic performance: is the president responsible?

A recurring theme in electoral politics is that American voters hold the president responsible for the state of the economy. Ironically, many Presidency scholars argue that presidents are ill equipped to manage the economy because other variables compete with and complicate the effects of fiscal policy. These include international variables, private market forces, and monetary policy, among others. Using simultaneous equation methods, we examine the direct and indirect effects of fiscal policy on economic performance while controlling for a variety of other determinants of economic performance. We find that fiscal policy plays a significant role in influencing unemployment and economic growth in the United States, even after controlling for a variety of other determinants of economic performance. We close by discussing the importance of linking the econometric modeling literature with the literature on presidential management of the economy.     

The “ugly” face of social investment? The politics of childcare in Central and Eastern Europe

In this article, we aim to understand the development dynamics of a specific area of social investment (SI), that is, childcare policies, in the context of postcommunist politics and the recent right-wing turn that took place in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. This article identifies varieties of channels for promoting SI. First, in taking the perspective of the “mixed economy of welfare,” we argue that attempts made to introduce elements of SI to the childcare policies involved various leading roles available for either the private sector or state/public domain. Second, it is important to distinguish between implicit/unintended and explicit/intended projects both in relation to cases in which SI strategy is applied via marketization/privatization and when it involves a government-led project. Third, we take into account the politics of SI implementation that might involve applying certain principles central to policy concepts (such as “investment”) in justifying policy instruments incompatible with original ideas. Although arguments about SI have been extensively used by Eastern European leaders, their goal has been to justify welfare reforms that were implicitly or explicitly directed towards the middle class while excluding the “nondeserving” often based on ethnic identity. We characterize Poland as a case of “implicit marketization,” the Czech Republic as a case of “explicit privatization,” and the Hungarian version of SI as a case of “explicit public dualization.” In this, we show that in some cases, the implementation of SI approaches by right-wing populist parties might rear its “ugly” head.     

End of double taxation: Is the policy better when announced?

This paper examines the effectiveness of the “end of double taxation” (on dividends) policy in stabilizing an economy. Both announced and unannounced policies are considered. A reduction in double taxation stimulates investment and improves welfare, but its impact on output is moderate and it has a negative effect on work hours. A temporary cut creates an investment boom but also generates an investment slump when the tax cut expires. Announcements of future tax cuts are found to have important effect on output dynamics. Agents respond to the tax policy even before it is implemented. If the tax cut is announced to be temporary, its impact on output is greatly reduced. Our study suggests that a temporary dividend tax cut is most effective in stabilizing a recession stricken economy when the policy change comes as “news” to the economy.